（2008-07-31） 吉宝置业（Keppel Land）有望在下半年当房地产市场气氛好转时，推出包括Marina Bay Suites以及Reflections at Keppel Bay第二阶段等项目在内的总共777个单位。 吉宝置业总裁黄景祥昨日在集团上半年业绩发布会上表示，由于房地产市场上半年趋于疲软，集团延后推出了本地的几个项目，而下半年将继续密切关注市场走势，并预计可以推出Marina Bay Suites以及Reflections at Keppel Bay第二阶段等其他主要住宅项目。
联昌国际的一名分析师指出，这些公寓的销售是其未来季度的主要增长动力，但进账也要取决于Reflections多快可以完工。
半年净利下滑10％
由于几个新加坡和海外项目的完工，加上房地产服务和集团酒店的营业额减少，吉宝置业上半年营收同比去年下滑29.9％报4亿5899万元，净利下滑10％至1亿1296万元，税前盈利下滑4.6％至1亿5890万元。每股盈利为15.7分，净资产值为3.13元，而集团的营运利润则上涨15.3％至1亿3208万元。
黄景祥表示，因美国次贷问题，本地的房地产市场也无可避免地受到影响，交易量比较低，高档住宅领域正经历整合，而中档和大众市场则相对稳定。
但他也认为，本地市场的基本面和经济增长仍然良好，市场的走势则主要取决于美国房贷问题何时可以稳定下来。
黄景祥还指出，本地办公市场的租金在今年上半年成温和增长，未来几年的供应和需求会更加平衡，租金和资本价值也预计会稳定增长。
由于几座海外住宅项目的竣工，吉宝置业在中国、越南等海外市场今年上半年的净利为2540万元，占集团总额的24.1％，同比去年降低了46.3％。
黄景祥表示，海外住宅市场的基本面仍然稳健，其经济增长虽然成温和态势但仍然强劲。这些国家虽然面临通货膨胀较高、增长放缓和房地产市场疲软的挑战，但其政府也采取了各项政策支持市场的稳定性。
他说，集团拥有业务的这些海外市场目前面临的问题是短期的，这将为集团在这些国家进一步扩大业务提供机会，但也将采取小心谨慎的做法。 对于未来的增长，黄景祥指出，吉宝置业将会留意本地和海外市场的收购机会，并在中东和俄罗斯等新的市场开拓商机。
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
財報－購併支出拖累 SAP第2季獲利降9% 仍優於預期
鉅亨網編譯吳國仲‧綜合外電2008 / 07 / 29 星期二 16:50 寄給朋友 友善列印 德國軟體公司 SAP AG(SAP-US；716460-DE)周二表示，第 2季獲利雖因收購Business Objects一案而下滑9%，但軟體與相關服務的營收卻優於預估。 該商用軟體業者表示， 6月30日為止的一季，淨利自去年同期的4.49億歐元降為4.08億歐元(6.424億美元)。整體營收方面，上升18%為28.6億歐元；軟體與相關服務之營收更大增21%至20.6億歐元。
此前，分析師預估SAP的軟體與相關服務營收為 20億歐元、整體營收27.9億歐元以及淨利3.72億歐元。
SAP同時表示， 2008年度營收可望達到預估區間的上限。依目前成長速度計算，SAP今年度(非公認會計準則)軟體與相關服務營收—公司獲利指標—將攀升24-27%。
剔除Business Objects併購案的負面影響後，全年營業利潤率(operating margin)亦將達到成長28.5-29%之預估上限。
SAP 周一股價收低0.9%至 33.95歐元，表現略優於大盤。
此前，分析師預估SAP的軟體與相關服務營收為 20億歐元、整體營收27.9億歐元以及淨利3.72億歐元。
SAP同時表示， 2008年度營收可望達到預估區間的上限。依目前成長速度計算，SAP今年度(非公認會計準則)軟體與相關服務營收—公司獲利指標—將攀升24-27%。
剔除Business Objects併購案的負面影響後，全年營業利潤率(operating margin)亦將達到成長28.5-29%之預估上限。
SAP 周一股價收低0.9%至 33.95歐元，表現略優於大盤。
軌道房開始“繳械” 滬上樓市盤整加劇
來源：新民網2008 / 07 / 29 星期二 13:27 寄給朋友 友善列印 【新民網‧商業報導】萬科樓盤的大幅降價引發了滬上開發商的集體拋盤，大量低價樓盤的集中入市使得上周房價跌至11717元/平方米的近20周新低。而作為滬上樓市最堅挺的軌道交通房，在樓市的進一步盤整期內，也不得不繳械，開始降價促銷。 房價再創新低
今日新民網從佑威房地產研究中心獲悉，上周（7.21-27）全市共有45批商品房（剔除動遷配套房，下同）上市，比前周多了14批，共推出了60.76萬平方米新房源，環比大幅上升了86%；其中，商品住宅的供應量幾乎是前周的一倍，達到46.57萬平方米。
在新房供應大幅攀升的帶動下，上周新房的成交量也有所回升。佑威房地產研究中心的資料顯示，上周全市共成交商品房（剔除動遷配套房，下同）21.96萬平方米，環比微升3%；平均成交價格卻下降了12%，為11678元/平方米。其中，商品住宅的成交量回升了15%，為17.83萬平方米，平均成交價格受到低價樓盤上市成交的影響大幅下滑了15%,為11717元/平方米，創近20周來新低（3月3-9日那周為10929元/平方米）。
軌道房開始“繳械”
“要買就買軌道房，軌道房的價格不會跌的。”這是以往市民與開發商一直堅守的最後堡壘，但是在08年的7月，這個堡壘開始繳械，軌道房也開始降價了。
在大量新盤低價入市及高檔樓盤開始進入冷凍期，導致了上周房價創新低。據介紹，在上周成交的前10名樓盤中，有9個樓盤的均價都低於萬元。與此同時，軌道交通房的相繼調低開盤價格也成為上周的一個樓市亮點。
“在上周成交的前十樓盤中，僅一個成交價超過萬元的樓盤，則是跌價超過2000元/平方米之後實現的，這個就是閘北大寧版塊的陽城貴都。”佑威房地產研究中心主任薛建雄說道,該樓盤距離軌道交通線7號線，僅僅是5分鐘的距離，屬於典型的軌道房。據悉，該樓盤上半年成交的87套房源均價高達16348元/平方米，而上周成交32套方源僅14356元/平方米，這個降幅一點也不遜色于萬科中林苑。
除此以外，閔行區的春申麗景靠近軌道交通1號線和5號線，也是近期開盤的優質軌道房，但是這個新盤原先預計價高達17000元/平方米，結果開盤價只有15000元/平方米。可見，急於推盤的開發商中有不少是低價拋盤的，連軌道房也不例外。在歷經了去年的價格拉高熱潮後，現在這些軌道交通房也在開始回調。
對於軌道交通房的降價，薛建雄表示，其對於周邊的樓盤以及二手房市場將會產生巨大的影響，由於是一些優質軌道房的價格下調，使得一些老樓盤在新推房源上也必須考慮利用降價來吸引客戶，這樣板塊內的房價也會出現整體下調。
8月中下旬周成交量將低於10萬平方米
對於上周的大量拋盤，薛建雄認為，是目前樓市調整的趨勢已經明朗，在萬科降價之後，一批大開發商開始跟進降價推盤。大量新盤上市帶來更為嚴重的供過於求加上購買力的消耗，可能使成交量在8月中下旬跌到更低，“周成交量可能低到10萬平方米”薛建雄判斷到。
“由此可見，上海樓市的大規模調整開始出現”，薛建雄繼續說到。預計本周新房的推盤量還將高企，因為很多樓盤會趕在奧運之前推盤，以避開社會關注度轉移的問題。在大量新房源降價上市的推動下，未來兩周樓市的成交量會有一個回升的小高潮，上海樓市的調整也將在近期觸低。因此，上海樓市“量價齊低”的盤整期可能還需要一段更長的時間，四季度後有望走出低迷期。但由於冬季的影響，回暖需要等到明年二季度。
今日新民網從佑威房地產研究中心獲悉，上周（7.21-27）全市共有45批商品房（剔除動遷配套房，下同）上市，比前周多了14批，共推出了60.76萬平方米新房源，環比大幅上升了86%；其中，商品住宅的供應量幾乎是前周的一倍，達到46.57萬平方米。
在新房供應大幅攀升的帶動下，上周新房的成交量也有所回升。佑威房地產研究中心的資料顯示，上周全市共成交商品房（剔除動遷配套房，下同）21.96萬平方米，環比微升3%；平均成交價格卻下降了12%，為11678元/平方米。其中，商品住宅的成交量回升了15%，為17.83萬平方米，平均成交價格受到低價樓盤上市成交的影響大幅下滑了15%,為11717元/平方米，創近20周來新低（3月3-9日那周為10929元/平方米）。
軌道房開始“繳械”
“要買就買軌道房，軌道房的價格不會跌的。”這是以往市民與開發商一直堅守的最後堡壘，但是在08年的7月，這個堡壘開始繳械，軌道房也開始降價了。
在大量新盤低價入市及高檔樓盤開始進入冷凍期，導致了上周房價創新低。據介紹，在上周成交的前10名樓盤中，有9個樓盤的均價都低於萬元。與此同時，軌道交通房的相繼調低開盤價格也成為上周的一個樓市亮點。
“在上周成交的前十樓盤中，僅一個成交價超過萬元的樓盤，則是跌價超過2000元/平方米之後實現的，這個就是閘北大寧版塊的陽城貴都。”佑威房地產研究中心主任薛建雄說道,該樓盤距離軌道交通線7號線，僅僅是5分鐘的距離，屬於典型的軌道房。據悉，該樓盤上半年成交的87套房源均價高達16348元/平方米，而上周成交32套方源僅14356元/平方米，這個降幅一點也不遜色于萬科中林苑。
除此以外，閔行區的春申麗景靠近軌道交通1號線和5號線，也是近期開盤的優質軌道房，但是這個新盤原先預計價高達17000元/平方米，結果開盤價只有15000元/平方米。可見，急於推盤的開發商中有不少是低價拋盤的，連軌道房也不例外。在歷經了去年的價格拉高熱潮後，現在這些軌道交通房也在開始回調。
對於軌道交通房的降價，薛建雄表示，其對於周邊的樓盤以及二手房市場將會產生巨大的影響，由於是一些優質軌道房的價格下調，使得一些老樓盤在新推房源上也必須考慮利用降價來吸引客戶，這樣板塊內的房價也會出現整體下調。
8月中下旬周成交量將低於10萬平方米
對於上周的大量拋盤，薛建雄認為，是目前樓市調整的趨勢已經明朗，在萬科降價之後，一批大開發商開始跟進降價推盤。大量新盤上市帶來更為嚴重的供過於求加上購買力的消耗，可能使成交量在8月中下旬跌到更低，“周成交量可能低到10萬平方米”薛建雄判斷到。
“由此可見，上海樓市的大規模調整開始出現”，薛建雄繼續說到。預計本周新房的推盤量還將高企，因為很多樓盤會趕在奧運之前推盤，以避開社會關注度轉移的問題。在大量新房源降價上市的推動下，未來兩周樓市的成交量會有一個回升的小高潮，上海樓市的調整也將在近期觸低。因此，上海樓市“量價齊低”的盤整期可能還需要一段更長的時間，四季度後有望走出低迷期。但由於冬季的影響，回暖需要等到明年二季度。
上海今年第一塊住宅地底價成交
來源：國際金融報 2008 / 07 / 29 星期二 12:03 寄給朋友 友善列印 土地價格回落大於住宅 住宅地荒半年來，今年上海市場上第一幅純住宅用地浦東“森蘭.外高橋”終被新加坡仁恒集團收入囊中。7月25日下午，上海今年第一次成功公開掛牌轉讓純住宅用地，新加坡仁恒集團攜仁恒房地產以11.9億元人民幣（下同）的底價獲得了原屬外高橋股份的浦東東溝楔形綠地南塊居住區A1-1、A1-2地塊使用權。
國家發改委近日發佈的資料顯示，今年以來，全國土地價格回調明顯，以底價拿地的情況已經屢屢發生。 據悉，浦東“森蘭.外高橋”項目原屬外高橋(600648)，首批總面積達到16萬平方米，出讓的土地屬於“森蘭?外高橋”專案南部國際社區，規劃容積率分別不大於1.6、1.7，地塊建設用地總面積為9.7073萬平方米，規劃總建築面積為15.8603萬平方米。是住宅地荒半年來上海市場上第一幅純住宅用地。
以地理位置而論，森蘭專案堪稱浦東地區另一個新江灣城。而外高橋也開始嘗試扮演土地運營商的角色。 外高橋獨家競買
在此前的推介會上，該地塊幾乎吸引了滬上所有的地產巨頭。金地集團、和記黃埔、新鴻基地產、仁恒地產、凱德置地、華潤集團、招商地產、上海陸家嘴集團、綠地集團等地產巨頭悉數出現在推介會現場。
不過，記者在拍賣現場看到，由於地塊轉讓的資格“門檻”頗高，如要求競買申請人近3年境內累計房產開發量不低於50萬平方米，且境外申請人需在境內投資控股比例達50%以上的房地產開發企業，境內申請人需具備房地產開發一級資質等，競買保證金就高達1.2億元，最終惟有仁恒一家企業報名。
樓板價７５００元
轉讓成功的兩幅外高橋地塊土地總面積10.01239萬平方米，轉讓總面積9.7073萬平方米，按照1.6-1.7的容積率估算，樓板價逾7500元/平方米。有市場人士表示，目前外高橋地塊周邊有幾個知名開發商開發的樓盤售價都在1.5萬元/平方米以上，加上外高橋地塊所處的東溝楔形綠地區域將被打造成浦東的新江灣城，因此這次的土地出讓價格尚屬合理。
記者還瞭解到，浦東已規劃在東溝、高橋、三林、高行、金張和北蔡一共開建五大楔形綠地，占地面積近6平方公里。計畫在今年建成的東溝楔形綠地目前最受關注，而其南部外高橋股份計畫建造國際社區森蘭?外高橋項目，此次轉讓兩幅地塊便位於該國際社區的西北角。 此前，外高橋股份有關負責人還曾透露，森蘭?外高橋是公司正式運作的第一個住宅項目，這也標誌著外高橋股份從做工業地產向開發住宅和商業地產的轉型，而此次轉讓土地是希望引進品牌開發商，先做熱市場，吸取經驗，然後再推出自己的品牌項目。
地價回調明顯
國家發改委近日發佈的資料顯示，全國今年二季度房價同比上漲9.2％，漲幅比一季度下降近兩個百分點，今年以來全國房價漲幅不斷下降，顯示房價正出現平穩回落的態勢。此外，土地價格漲幅回調則更加明顯，相比第一季度漲幅下降了5.7個百分點。據國家發改委、國家統計局調查顯示，與去年同期相比，2008年二季度全國70個大中城市房屋銷售價格上漲9.2%，房屋租賃價格上漲2.2%，土地交易價格上漲10.8%，物業服務價格上漲0.5%。
相比房價漲幅，土地價格漲幅回落速度更快。資料顯示，二季度土地交易價格同比上漲10.8%，漲幅比上季度低5.7個百分點。其中，居住用地、工業用地和商業營業用地交易價格分別上漲12.2%、4.7%和14.9%。從今年年初開始，受到資金鏈緊張的限制，開發商拿地熱情明顯降低，不少土地都以底價成交。
國家發改委近日發佈的資料顯示，今年以來，全國土地價格回調明顯，以底價拿地的情況已經屢屢發生。 據悉，浦東“森蘭.外高橋”項目原屬外高橋(600648)，首批總面積達到16萬平方米，出讓的土地屬於“森蘭?外高橋”專案南部國際社區，規劃容積率分別不大於1.6、1.7，地塊建設用地總面積為9.7073萬平方米，規劃總建築面積為15.8603萬平方米。是住宅地荒半年來上海市場上第一幅純住宅用地。
以地理位置而論，森蘭專案堪稱浦東地區另一個新江灣城。而外高橋也開始嘗試扮演土地運營商的角色。 外高橋獨家競買
在此前的推介會上，該地塊幾乎吸引了滬上所有的地產巨頭。金地集團、和記黃埔、新鴻基地產、仁恒地產、凱德置地、華潤集團、招商地產、上海陸家嘴集團、綠地集團等地產巨頭悉數出現在推介會現場。
不過，記者在拍賣現場看到，由於地塊轉讓的資格“門檻”頗高，如要求競買申請人近3年境內累計房產開發量不低於50萬平方米，且境外申請人需在境內投資控股比例達50%以上的房地產開發企業，境內申請人需具備房地產開發一級資質等，競買保證金就高達1.2億元，最終惟有仁恒一家企業報名。
樓板價７５００元
轉讓成功的兩幅外高橋地塊土地總面積10.01239萬平方米，轉讓總面積9.7073萬平方米，按照1.6-1.7的容積率估算，樓板價逾7500元/平方米。有市場人士表示，目前外高橋地塊周邊有幾個知名開發商開發的樓盤售價都在1.5萬元/平方米以上，加上外高橋地塊所處的東溝楔形綠地區域將被打造成浦東的新江灣城，因此這次的土地出讓價格尚屬合理。
記者還瞭解到，浦東已規劃在東溝、高橋、三林、高行、金張和北蔡一共開建五大楔形綠地，占地面積近6平方公里。計畫在今年建成的東溝楔形綠地目前最受關注，而其南部外高橋股份計畫建造國際社區森蘭?外高橋項目，此次轉讓兩幅地塊便位於該國際社區的西北角。 此前，外高橋股份有關負責人還曾透露，森蘭?外高橋是公司正式運作的第一個住宅項目，這也標誌著外高橋股份從做工業地產向開發住宅和商業地產的轉型，而此次轉讓土地是希望引進品牌開發商，先做熱市場，吸取經驗，然後再推出自己的品牌項目。
地價回調明顯
國家發改委近日發佈的資料顯示，全國今年二季度房價同比上漲9.2％，漲幅比一季度下降近兩個百分點，今年以來全國房價漲幅不斷下降，顯示房價正出現平穩回落的態勢。此外，土地價格漲幅回調則更加明顯，相比第一季度漲幅下降了5.7個百分點。據國家發改委、國家統計局調查顯示，與去年同期相比，2008年二季度全國70個大中城市房屋銷售價格上漲9.2%，房屋租賃價格上漲2.2%，土地交易價格上漲10.8%，物業服務價格上漲0.5%。
相比房價漲幅，土地價格漲幅回落速度更快。資料顯示，二季度土地交易價格同比上漲10.8%，漲幅比上季度低5.7個百分點。其中，居住用地、工業用地和商業營業用地交易價格分別上漲12.2%、4.7%和14.9%。從今年年初開始，受到資金鏈緊張的限制，開發商拿地熱情明顯降低，不少土地都以底價成交。
上海新房成交價跌至每平方米11717元
創20周新低 來源：東方早報2008 / 07 / 29 星期二 12:08 寄給朋友 友善列印 大量低價樓盤的集中入市使得上周房價跌至11717元/平方米的近20周新低。佑威房地產研究中心的最新報告顯示，上周(7.21-27)全市共有45批商品房(剔除動遷配套房，下同)上市，比前周多了14批，共推出了60.76萬平方米新房源，環比大幅上升了86%；其中，商品住宅的供應量幾乎是前周的1倍，達到46.57萬平方米。在新上市的樓盤中，很多專案的報價較之預期都有不同程度下降。 在新房供應大幅攀升的帶動下，上周新房的成交量也有所回升。佑威房地產研究中心的資料顯示，上周全市共成交商品房21.96萬平方米，環比微升3%；平均成交價格卻下降了12%，為11678元/平方米。其中，商品住宅的成交量回升了15%，為17.83萬平方米，平均成交價格受到低價樓盤上市成交的影響大幅下滑了15%,為11717元/平方米，創近20周來新低(3月3-9日那周為10929元/平方米)。
如寶山的三花現代城報價從4月的15000元/平方米跌到這次的13800元/平方米，閔行的春申麗園原先預計價高達17000元/平方米，結果開盤價只有15000元/平方米。佑威薛建雄認為，在萬科降價之後一批大開發商開始跟進降價推盤。如大華位於寶山區的新盤“綠地領海”首批房源報價僅7000元/平方米，比周邊樓盤單價低約2000元/平方米。
大量新盤低價入市，是導致上周房價創新低的主要原因。在上周成交的前10名樓盤中，有9個樓盤的均價都低於萬元，僅有大華的陽城貴都成交價超過萬元。
但值得注意的是，該樓盤上半年成交的87套房源均價高達16348元/平方米，而上周成交32套房源成交價僅14356元/平方米，成交價下降了2000元/平方米。預計大量新盤上市可能使成交量在8月中下旬跌到更低。
如寶山的三花現代城報價從4月的15000元/平方米跌到這次的13800元/平方米，閔行的春申麗園原先預計價高達17000元/平方米，結果開盤價只有15000元/平方米。佑威薛建雄認為，在萬科降價之後一批大開發商開始跟進降價推盤。如大華位於寶山區的新盤“綠地領海”首批房源報價僅7000元/平方米，比周邊樓盤單價低約2000元/平方米。
大量新盤低價入市，是導致上周房價創新低的主要原因。在上周成交的前10名樓盤中，有9個樓盤的均價都低於萬元，僅有大華的陽城貴都成交價超過萬元。
但值得注意的是，該樓盤上半年成交的87套房源均價高達16348元/平方米，而上周成交32套房源成交價僅14356元/平方米，成交價下降了2000元/平方米。預計大量新盤上市可能使成交量在8月中下旬跌到更低。
Less cash upfront but …
Posted on July 26, 2008 by lushhomeonline
More choice for home-buyers
HAD you $20,000 in cash to pay for the Cash-Over-Valuation (COV) component of a resale 4-room Housing and Development Board (HDB) flat, you would have better bargaining power now than in the last quarter of 2007.
Back then, you might just have been able to afford such a flat in far-flung areas such as Bukit Panjang, Chua Chu Kang, Jurong or Woodlands.
But between April and last month, you could have had choice pickings from locations such as Ang Mo Kio, Tampines or Hougang.
On Friday, second-quarter data from the HDB showed that even as resale prices rose by 4.5 per cent, the good news for home-buyers was that the median COV dipped to $20,000 - $1,000 lower than in Q1 and down from $22,000 in Q4 last year.
Reflecting strong demand that was a contrast to weakening sentiments in the private sector, the total number of HDB resale transactions grew 22 per cent to 7,760 in Q2.
Industry players attribute the dip in COV prices to the higher valuation of resale flats :(this is based on the previously transacted price of similar flats).
This has led to buyers being far less willing to pay inflated COVs which, last year, hit peaks of $80,000 to $100,000 in choice locations.
Still, rare exceptions stood out in the second quarter: The highest median COV of $93,000 for a five-room flat was recorded in Bukit Timah. And home-buyers were willing to pay a higher cash premium for three, four and five-room flats in Toa Payoh and Kallang/Whampoa.
In the latter area, five-room flat buyers paid some $38,000 in cash over valuation, which analysts attributed to the proximity to the CBD, riverside living and plans to transform it into a new lifestyle district with retail and entertainment facilities.
On the whole, demand in the resale market is coming “from up-graders, down-graders and permanent residents”, said ERA’s assistant vice president Eugene Lim.
At the same time, with there being hardly any surplus stocks - compared to five years ago when the HDB had 25,000 unsold flats - buyers have few choices if they do not want to wait for a new HDB flat to be built on demand.
But Mr Lim and Propnex chief executive Mohamed Ismail expect COVs to continue tapering, even if resale flat prices rise further.
Mr Ismail calls the situation a win-win one: Buyers do not have to fork out so much out of pocket, and sellers can still command a high price for their flats through valuation.
Source : Weekend Today - 26 Jul 2008
More choice for home-buyers
HAD you $20,000 in cash to pay for the Cash-Over-Valuation (COV) component of a resale 4-room Housing and Development Board (HDB) flat, you would have better bargaining power now than in the last quarter of 2007.
Back then, you might just have been able to afford such a flat in far-flung areas such as Bukit Panjang, Chua Chu Kang, Jurong or Woodlands.
But between April and last month, you could have had choice pickings from locations such as Ang Mo Kio, Tampines or Hougang.
On Friday, second-quarter data from the HDB showed that even as resale prices rose by 4.5 per cent, the good news for home-buyers was that the median COV dipped to $20,000 - $1,000 lower than in Q1 and down from $22,000 in Q4 last year.
Reflecting strong demand that was a contrast to weakening sentiments in the private sector, the total number of HDB resale transactions grew 22 per cent to 7,760 in Q2.
Industry players attribute the dip in COV prices to the higher valuation of resale flats :(this is based on the previously transacted price of similar flats).
This has led to buyers being far less willing to pay inflated COVs which, last year, hit peaks of $80,000 to $100,000 in choice locations.
Still, rare exceptions stood out in the second quarter: The highest median COV of $93,000 for a five-room flat was recorded in Bukit Timah. And home-buyers were willing to pay a higher cash premium for three, four and five-room flats in Toa Payoh and Kallang/Whampoa.
In the latter area, five-room flat buyers paid some $38,000 in cash over valuation, which analysts attributed to the proximity to the CBD, riverside living and plans to transform it into a new lifestyle district with retail and entertainment facilities.
On the whole, demand in the resale market is coming “from up-graders, down-graders and permanent residents”, said ERA’s assistant vice president Eugene Lim.
At the same time, with there being hardly any surplus stocks - compared to five years ago when the HDB had 25,000 unsold flats - buyers have few choices if they do not want to wait for a new HDB flat to be built on demand.
But Mr Lim and Propnex chief executive Mohamed Ismail expect COVs to continue tapering, even if resale flat prices rise further.
Mr Ismail calls the situation a win-win one: Buyers do not have to fork out so much out of pocket, and sellers can still command a high price for their flats through valuation.
Source : Weekend Today - 26 Jul 2008
HDB resale market buoyant but upgrader effect still muted
Posted on July 26, 2008 by lushhomeonline
Resale price index very close to record high of Q41996; Q2 transactions up 22%
THE Housing and Development Board (HDB) has announced that its Resale Price Index rose by 4.5 per cent in Q2 2008 over the previous quarter and 8.4 per cent since Q4 2007.
The number of resale transactions also increased by 22 per cent quarter on quarter to hit 7,760 transactions.
On a half-yearly basis, a total of 14,120 transactions have been recorded so far, almost half of the 29,450 transactions for the whole of 2007.
The HDB Resale Price Index is now hovering very close to the all-time peak in Q4 1996, boosted by high resale prices in estates like Queenstown and Bukit Merah where the median price for five-room flats is now around $600,000.
But while a buoyant resale market can translate into a stronger HDB upgrader base, it may still be too early for developers to count on upgraders to prop up the private residential market.
DTZ executive director and regional head for consulting and research, Ong Choon Fah, said that HDB upgraders are ’still price-sensitive’.
According to DTZ’s analysis, HDB upgraders accounted for 28 per cent of all private homes bought in Q1 2008, up from 22 per cent in the preceding quarter.
However, in 1998, when private property prices bottomed out, HDB upgrader transactions peaked at 62 per cent of all private property transactions.
And when the property market tanked again in 2002, HDB upgraders went in to buy up to 59 per cent of all private property transacted.
While the numbers suggest that HDB upgraders still find private property too expensive, Mrs Ong also pointed that HDB does now offer a ’spectrum’ of property types to cater to more specific needs and price brackets.
Mrs Ong was referring to HDB’s new Design, Build and Sell Scheme flats which have been selling well.
Sources also say that the 578-unit Park Central at AMK has received around 1,000 applications since its launch on June 23.
HDB has also launched a total of 4,524 new flats under the Build-To-Order (BTO) system for H1 2008.
ERA Asia Pacific assistant vice-president Eugene Lim points out that HDB upgraders tend to be those who sell their five-room or executive flats, and according to his analysis, this number has not increased significantly.
Five-room flats made up 26 per cent of all HDB resale transactions in Q2 2008, up from 25 per cent in the previous quarter while executive flats made up 9 per cent, up from 7 per cent quarter on quarter.
Four-room flats made up 37 per cent of all resale transactions, and Mr Lim also notes that the median price for this segment saw the highest increase by $15,000 to $300,000.
Mr Lim believes that the upgrader effect on the private property market could be curtailed by affordability too.
‘Most upgraders will be looking for properties in the $650-$750 psf bracket,’ he said.
Interestingly, the influx of new permanent residents (PRs) here has added to the demand for resale flats.
Mr Lim estimates that 20 per cent of buyers in the resale segment are PRs, up from 10-12 per cent a year ago.
However, whether PRs are partially responsible for the buoyant resale market is not known. HDB has not revealed the number of flats bought by PRs.
Perhaps a more interesting development is that the HDB Resale Price Index has begun to diverge from the private property price index, which grew by just 0.2 per cent in Q2 2008.
Still, most property consultants believe the chances of the two indices decoupling, to represent a disconnected private and public property markets, are remote.
Knight Frank director (research and consultancy) Nicholas Mak also highlights that between Q2 2002 and Q1 2004, prices of private homes fell, while HDB resale prices increased.
During this period, both indices did, however, remain relatively flat.
Mr Mak does believes that any divergence in price trends, if any, will only last for a few quarters before a correlation is re-established.
He added: ‘Both private and public sectors do relate to the same macro-economic factors.’
DTZ’s Mrs Ong also said that both sectors are linked by the ’substitutional effect’.
‘If prices are too high in the private housing market, buyers will shift to the public housing market,’ she added.
She also noted that significant shifts in price movements only tend to follow changes in housing policy and related spheres like Central Provident Fund.
Savills Singapore director (marketing and business development) Ku Swee Yong believes that HDB upgraders will eventually return to ‘lend strong support’ to the private property market, citing the interest, if not the take-up, in new mass-market launches like Livia and Clover by the Park as examples.
Source : Business Times - 26 Jul 2008
Resale price index very close to record high of Q41996; Q2 transactions up 22%
THE Housing and Development Board (HDB) has announced that its Resale Price Index rose by 4.5 per cent in Q2 2008 over the previous quarter and 8.4 per cent since Q4 2007.
The number of resale transactions also increased by 22 per cent quarter on quarter to hit 7,760 transactions.
On a half-yearly basis, a total of 14,120 transactions have been recorded so far, almost half of the 29,450 transactions for the whole of 2007.
The HDB Resale Price Index is now hovering very close to the all-time peak in Q4 1996, boosted by high resale prices in estates like Queenstown and Bukit Merah where the median price for five-room flats is now around $600,000.
But while a buoyant resale market can translate into a stronger HDB upgrader base, it may still be too early for developers to count on upgraders to prop up the private residential market.
DTZ executive director and regional head for consulting and research, Ong Choon Fah, said that HDB upgraders are ’still price-sensitive’.
According to DTZ’s analysis, HDB upgraders accounted for 28 per cent of all private homes bought in Q1 2008, up from 22 per cent in the preceding quarter.
However, in 1998, when private property prices bottomed out, HDB upgrader transactions peaked at 62 per cent of all private property transactions.
And when the property market tanked again in 2002, HDB upgraders went in to buy up to 59 per cent of all private property transacted.
While the numbers suggest that HDB upgraders still find private property too expensive, Mrs Ong also pointed that HDB does now offer a ’spectrum’ of property types to cater to more specific needs and price brackets.
Mrs Ong was referring to HDB’s new Design, Build and Sell Scheme flats which have been selling well.
Sources also say that the 578-unit Park Central at AMK has received around 1,000 applications since its launch on June 23.
HDB has also launched a total of 4,524 new flats under the Build-To-Order (BTO) system for H1 2008.
ERA Asia Pacific assistant vice-president Eugene Lim points out that HDB upgraders tend to be those who sell their five-room or executive flats, and according to his analysis, this number has not increased significantly.
Five-room flats made up 26 per cent of all HDB resale transactions in Q2 2008, up from 25 per cent in the previous quarter while executive flats made up 9 per cent, up from 7 per cent quarter on quarter.
Four-room flats made up 37 per cent of all resale transactions, and Mr Lim also notes that the median price for this segment saw the highest increase by $15,000 to $300,000.
Mr Lim believes that the upgrader effect on the private property market could be curtailed by affordability too.
‘Most upgraders will be looking for properties in the $650-$750 psf bracket,’ he said.
Interestingly, the influx of new permanent residents (PRs) here has added to the demand for resale flats.
Mr Lim estimates that 20 per cent of buyers in the resale segment are PRs, up from 10-12 per cent a year ago.
However, whether PRs are partially responsible for the buoyant resale market is not known. HDB has not revealed the number of flats bought by PRs.
Perhaps a more interesting development is that the HDB Resale Price Index has begun to diverge from the private property price index, which grew by just 0.2 per cent in Q2 2008.
Still, most property consultants believe the chances of the two indices decoupling, to represent a disconnected private and public property markets, are remote.
Knight Frank director (research and consultancy) Nicholas Mak also highlights that between Q2 2002 and Q1 2004, prices of private homes fell, while HDB resale prices increased.
During this period, both indices did, however, remain relatively flat.
Mr Mak does believes that any divergence in price trends, if any, will only last for a few quarters before a correlation is re-established.
He added: ‘Both private and public sectors do relate to the same macro-economic factors.’
DTZ’s Mrs Ong also said that both sectors are linked by the ’substitutional effect’.
‘If prices are too high in the private housing market, buyers will shift to the public housing market,’ she added.
She also noted that significant shifts in price movements only tend to follow changes in housing policy and related spheres like Central Provident Fund.
Savills Singapore director (marketing and business development) Ku Swee Yong believes that HDB upgraders will eventually return to ‘lend strong support’ to the private property market, citing the interest, if not the take-up, in new mass-market launches like Livia and Clover by the Park as examples.
Source : Business Times - 26 Jul 2008
Record 13,400 homes to be completed next year
Posted on July 27, 2008 by lushhomeonline
Next year is likely to be a bad one for landlords.
A bumper crop of newly completed homes is scheduled to flood the market, making more apartments available for rent and pushing down rents, which saw record rises last year.
And with lower rents, private home prices - which industry observers say have reached their peak - may drop further, especially those in the prime districts.
A massive 13,399 new private homes will be ready for occupation next year. This is double the average in recent years and the most in a single year, according to property consultancy CB Richard Ellis (CBRE).
Official supply numbers show 10,500 completions next year and 11,800 the year after, but CBRE’s analysis, based on construction progress and delays, reveals more completions next year.
It expects this new supply to depress rents by 5 to 10 per cent on average next year, coming on top of a
global economic slowdown that might lead firms to hire fewer expatriates, the main source of tenants.
In the prime areas, rents could slide up to 15 per cent next year, on top of a decline that has already begun this year, predicted CBRE.
Popular rental areas such as the East Coast and Orchard will be among the worst hit as keen demand for homes there in recent years led developers to build aggressively.
An ‘alarming’ 3,341 new homes will be completed in the East Coast next year, double the number this year, CBRE said. Major projects in the area, which covers Katong and Marine Parade to Bedok and Changi, include the 562-unit One Amber and the 556-unit Casa Merah.
In the prime districts 9, 10 and 11, some 4,240 homes will be ready in areas such as Orchard, Holland, River Valley, Tanglin and Newton. RiverGate, with 545 units, is the biggest condominium scheduled to open its doors.
Suburban areas will also see a large jump in finished homes next year. In the north and north-west, for example, there will be 10 times more than this year.
But this is unlikely to result in a glut or lower rents as most suburban home buyers intend to occupy their units.
Property experts warn that many major prime projects to be ready this year and next are those that had attracted investors rather than owner-occupiers, which means their units will add to the rental supply.
‘Some big condos in the downtown areas have a higher proportion of investors,’ said Mr Colin Tan of property firm Chesterton International. These include the 1,111-unit Sail @ Marina Bay, which will be fully completed by the end of this year, and the 312-unit Clift in McCallum Road, expected next year.
‘We don’t even have to wait for the 14,000 homes next year; rents are already moderating and should come down in the third quarter,’ he said, adding that landlords are lowering their asking rentals.
He cited the case of The Sea View in Amber Road, whose 546 units were completed this year. ‘I asked someone there, how are the rents? He said: ‘I’m not sure really, there’s no demand’.’
This will be welcome news for renters, who have had to face ever-increasing rents over the last two years.
Rents have shot up 60 per cent on average since 2006 and even doubled in some places, thanks to an influx of expats and a shortage of rental homes.
For example, in Cuscaden Residences in the Tanglin area, a typical 1,485 sq ft unit could fetch $9,200 in monthly rents last year, from about $6,500 in 2005. This year, it has fallen to $8,100, according to recent reports. Next year, it could fall by another 10 per cent to $7,300, if CBRE’s predictions come true.
Entrepreneur Sebastien Dechamps, 29, who came here from France three years ago and started a website for expatriates, said high rents have seen more expatriates moving away from the city to places in the north and the east.
‘The fall in rental prices is definitely good news. It might encourage expats to move to the city, which is great because they can put more vibrancy back into the city and into its nightlife,’ he said.
A fall in rentals generally leads to a fall in home prices for two reasons: landlords, less able to service their mortgages, are willing to let go of their units more cheaply, while would-be investors will only pay as much as a home can fetch in rents.
The supply situation is not likely to improve beyond 2010: The latest official data shows that apart from the 21,000 or so homes to be completed over the next two years, there are another 20,000 homes scheduled to be built in 2011.
But Savills Singapore’s director of business development and marketing, Mr Ku Swee Yong, is still optimistic.
He expects higher than average housing demand during ‘the next few years of growth’, and believes that after accounting for demolitions of collective sale estates, the ‘net supply should be balanced by demand’.
Source : Sunday Times - 27 Jul 2008
Next year is likely to be a bad one for landlords.
A bumper crop of newly completed homes is scheduled to flood the market, making more apartments available for rent and pushing down rents, which saw record rises last year.
And with lower rents, private home prices - which industry observers say have reached their peak - may drop further, especially those in the prime districts.
A massive 13,399 new private homes will be ready for occupation next year. This is double the average in recent years and the most in a single year, according to property consultancy CB Richard Ellis (CBRE).
Official supply numbers show 10,500 completions next year and 11,800 the year after, but CBRE’s analysis, based on construction progress and delays, reveals more completions next year.
It expects this new supply to depress rents by 5 to 10 per cent on average next year, coming on top of a
global economic slowdown that might lead firms to hire fewer expatriates, the main source of tenants.
In the prime areas, rents could slide up to 15 per cent next year, on top of a decline that has already begun this year, predicted CBRE.
Popular rental areas such as the East Coast and Orchard will be among the worst hit as keen demand for homes there in recent years led developers to build aggressively.
An ‘alarming’ 3,341 new homes will be completed in the East Coast next year, double the number this year, CBRE said. Major projects in the area, which covers Katong and Marine Parade to Bedok and Changi, include the 562-unit One Amber and the 556-unit Casa Merah.
In the prime districts 9, 10 and 11, some 4,240 homes will be ready in areas such as Orchard, Holland, River Valley, Tanglin and Newton. RiverGate, with 545 units, is the biggest condominium scheduled to open its doors.
Suburban areas will also see a large jump in finished homes next year. In the north and north-west, for example, there will be 10 times more than this year.
But this is unlikely to result in a glut or lower rents as most suburban home buyers intend to occupy their units.
Property experts warn that many major prime projects to be ready this year and next are those that had attracted investors rather than owner-occupiers, which means their units will add to the rental supply.
‘Some big condos in the downtown areas have a higher proportion of investors,’ said Mr Colin Tan of property firm Chesterton International. These include the 1,111-unit Sail @ Marina Bay, which will be fully completed by the end of this year, and the 312-unit Clift in McCallum Road, expected next year.
‘We don’t even have to wait for the 14,000 homes next year; rents are already moderating and should come down in the third quarter,’ he said, adding that landlords are lowering their asking rentals.
He cited the case of The Sea View in Amber Road, whose 546 units were completed this year. ‘I asked someone there, how are the rents? He said: ‘I’m not sure really, there’s no demand’.’
This will be welcome news for renters, who have had to face ever-increasing rents over the last two years.
Rents have shot up 60 per cent on average since 2006 and even doubled in some places, thanks to an influx of expats and a shortage of rental homes.
For example, in Cuscaden Residences in the Tanglin area, a typical 1,485 sq ft unit could fetch $9,200 in monthly rents last year, from about $6,500 in 2005. This year, it has fallen to $8,100, according to recent reports. Next year, it could fall by another 10 per cent to $7,300, if CBRE’s predictions come true.
Entrepreneur Sebastien Dechamps, 29, who came here from France three years ago and started a website for expatriates, said high rents have seen more expatriates moving away from the city to places in the north and the east.
‘The fall in rental prices is definitely good news. It might encourage expats to move to the city, which is great because they can put more vibrancy back into the city and into its nightlife,’ he said.
A fall in rentals generally leads to a fall in home prices for two reasons: landlords, less able to service their mortgages, are willing to let go of their units more cheaply, while would-be investors will only pay as much as a home can fetch in rents.
The supply situation is not likely to improve beyond 2010: The latest official data shows that apart from the 21,000 or so homes to be completed over the next two years, there are another 20,000 homes scheduled to be built in 2011.
But Savills Singapore’s director of business development and marketing, Mr Ku Swee Yong, is still optimistic.
He expects higher than average housing demand during ‘the next few years of growth’, and believes that after accounting for demolitions of collective sale estates, the ‘net supply should be balanced by demand’.
Source : Sunday Times - 27 Jul 2008
Older landed homes now within reach
Posted on July 27, 2008 by lushhomeonline
Owning a landed property may feel like a distant dream for some after the prices of such homes surged significantly last year, but the dream may not be as distant as it seems.
If one looks hard enough in suburban locations, such homes can be found for as little as $800,000.
The good news for potential buyers is that price growth in landed homes is slowing in line with the general market.
Indeed, suburban bungalows and terrace houses have already registered a drop in prices, according to data from Savills Singapore.
For instance, in the second quarter, prices of suburban terrace houses dropped 6.8per cent to an average price of $605 per sqft, compared with a 2.4per cent rise in the first quarter.
Overall, official data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority on Friday showed that landed home prices rose 0.6per cent in the second quarter, down from a rise of 3.9per cent in the first three months of the year, and 23.4per cent for the whole of last year.
While the downward growth trend may continue, landed home prices are at least supported by a limited supply of such homes and a relatively illiquid market, market watchers say.
As more houses are being converted into apartment blocks, landed homes could become rarer in 15 years’ time, says the director of Savills Residential, Mr Ku Swee Yong.
He foresees an annual rise of at least 5per cent in the general landed home market in the next three years even as growth slows.
What to look out for
Those with a small budget of around $800,000 should check out locations such as the MacPherson area, or Jalan Hari Raya in the Thomson area, according to Mr Eugene Lim, assistant vice-president of ERA Asia-Pacific.
Those with a slightly bigger budget of around $1million might like to consider older, 99-year leasehold landed homes in Paya Lebar, Hougang and Rifle Range Road.
They could also look at the terrace houses in Choa Chu Kang, Kallang, Pasir Ris, Sengkang, Sembawang and Toa Payoh, or semi-detached homes in Jurong West.
A 2,399sqft terrace unit in Pasir Ris Heights, for example, was sold for $870,000 last month, while a bigger 3,674sqft unit in the same area went for $818,000 in April.
Generally, though, landed homes below $800,000 are few in number, are likely to be very old and are often single-storey terrace houses. Buyers would likely need to spend money on renovation, said Mr Lim.
With older homes, potential buyers should pay particular attention to the structure and look for signs of leakage, he said.
But even if a buyer has money set aside for renovation, said experts, he may find it tough securing a contractor, as the construction sector is stretched in the current market.
Aside from location and the cost of renovation, buyers should also consider the shape of the site on which the house sits.
‘Odd-shaped land means there is less effective land area for built-up space, and that compromises on space maximisation as well as the prospect for redevelopment or even sub-division,’ said the head of KF Property Network, Dr Tan Tee Khoon.
Fortunately, most houses sit on rectangular or square-shaped plots.
‘Other practical considerations include ensuring that there is no termite problem and that the property has no illegal extensions or erection of structures,’ he added.
Also, buyers typically want a landed home for their own use. Those buying for investment should note that landed homes are generally less attractive to tenants than condominium units because of the lack of facilities, said Savill’s Mr Ku. Many tenants also do not want to be bothered with maintaining a landed property.
Median rents for suburban terrace units have remained stable this year at $1.84 psf - the same median rent level for semi-detached houses in the second quarter. Median rents for surburban bungalows have fallen to $2.40 psf in the second quarter, from $2.67 psf in general.
‘In general, the lower rental value is reflected in the lower price on a per square foot basis. This is why landed prices are a laggard to the general market,’ said Mr Ku.
Beware extra costs
Generally, landed homes below $800,000 are few in number, likely to be very old, and are often single-storey terrace houses. Buyers would likely need to spend money on renovation.
Source : Sunday Times - 27 Jul 2008
Owning a landed property may feel like a distant dream for some after the prices of such homes surged significantly last year, but the dream may not be as distant as it seems.
If one looks hard enough in suburban locations, such homes can be found for as little as $800,000.
The good news for potential buyers is that price growth in landed homes is slowing in line with the general market.
Indeed, suburban bungalows and terrace houses have already registered a drop in prices, according to data from Savills Singapore.
For instance, in the second quarter, prices of suburban terrace houses dropped 6.8per cent to an average price of $605 per sqft, compared with a 2.4per cent rise in the first quarter.
Overall, official data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority on Friday showed that landed home prices rose 0.6per cent in the second quarter, down from a rise of 3.9per cent in the first three months of the year, and 23.4per cent for the whole of last year.
While the downward growth trend may continue, landed home prices are at least supported by a limited supply of such homes and a relatively illiquid market, market watchers say.
As more houses are being converted into apartment blocks, landed homes could become rarer in 15 years’ time, says the director of Savills Residential, Mr Ku Swee Yong.
He foresees an annual rise of at least 5per cent in the general landed home market in the next three years even as growth slows.
What to look out for
Those with a small budget of around $800,000 should check out locations such as the MacPherson area, or Jalan Hari Raya in the Thomson area, according to Mr Eugene Lim, assistant vice-president of ERA Asia-Pacific.
Those with a slightly bigger budget of around $1million might like to consider older, 99-year leasehold landed homes in Paya Lebar, Hougang and Rifle Range Road.
They could also look at the terrace houses in Choa Chu Kang, Kallang, Pasir Ris, Sengkang, Sembawang and Toa Payoh, or semi-detached homes in Jurong West.
A 2,399sqft terrace unit in Pasir Ris Heights, for example, was sold for $870,000 last month, while a bigger 3,674sqft unit in the same area went for $818,000 in April.
Generally, though, landed homes below $800,000 are few in number, are likely to be very old and are often single-storey terrace houses. Buyers would likely need to spend money on renovation, said Mr Lim.
With older homes, potential buyers should pay particular attention to the structure and look for signs of leakage, he said.
But even if a buyer has money set aside for renovation, said experts, he may find it tough securing a contractor, as the construction sector is stretched in the current market.
Aside from location and the cost of renovation, buyers should also consider the shape of the site on which the house sits.
‘Odd-shaped land means there is less effective land area for built-up space, and that compromises on space maximisation as well as the prospect for redevelopment or even sub-division,’ said the head of KF Property Network, Dr Tan Tee Khoon.
Fortunately, most houses sit on rectangular or square-shaped plots.
‘Other practical considerations include ensuring that there is no termite problem and that the property has no illegal extensions or erection of structures,’ he added.
Also, buyers typically want a landed home for their own use. Those buying for investment should note that landed homes are generally less attractive to tenants than condominium units because of the lack of facilities, said Savill’s Mr Ku. Many tenants also do not want to be bothered with maintaining a landed property.
Median rents for suburban terrace units have remained stable this year at $1.84 psf - the same median rent level for semi-detached houses in the second quarter. Median rents for surburban bungalows have fallen to $2.40 psf in the second quarter, from $2.67 psf in general.
‘In general, the lower rental value is reflected in the lower price on a per square foot basis. This is why landed prices are a laggard to the general market,’ said Mr Ku.
Beware extra costs
Generally, landed homes below $800,000 are few in number, likely to be very old, and are often single-storey terrace houses. Buyers would likely need to spend money on renovation.
Source : Sunday Times - 27 Jul 2008
謝國忠》危機再現
( 2008/07/25 )抵押貸款市場的兩大支柱快要倒下，信貸危機最糟糕的階段可能已經來臨；中國的國有金融機構過於迫切地與華爾街打交道，可能會重蹈房利美和房地美的覆轍。
信貸危機最糟糕的階段可能已經來臨。美國抵押貸款市場的中流砥柱—— 房利美(Fannie Mae)和房地美(Freddie Mac)正瀕臨破產邊緣。 兩家公司都是政府發起企業(GSE)，而且它們規模如此之大，誰也不會想到它們會倒閉。因為一旦倒閉，美國住宅市場的資金流將被切斷。兩家公司業務合計佔據了美國抵押貸款市場的半壁江山。政府不得不對其展開救助。
繼續救市
當前危機起源於銀行給購房者提供了過度貸款。近年來，人們認為，「金融創新」可以使信貸投資者減少風險，而「金融創新」也讓人們購房時背負了較高的財務槓杆。除了傳統上購買銀行抵押資產並打包成證券化產品，房利美和房地美也購買了信貸衍生品市場的新金融產品。事實已證明，「金融創新」能降低風險的說法只是天方夜譚。隨著房利美和房地美深陷危機，信貸泡沫的核心被暴露出來，現在恐怕是危機的最糟糕階段。
危機並不會隨著這兩家機構瀕於破產和政府實施援救而結束，更多諸如地區性銀行的金融機構將會倒閉。例如，擅長經營抵押貸款的獨立國家房貸公司(Indy Mac Bank)曾為住宅市場繁榮貢獻過一臂之力。七月十一日，它卻被美國聯邦監管機構接管。它也是美國歷史上倒閉的第三大銀行。獨立國家房貸公司的破產可能會讓聯邦存款保險公司(FDIC)花費四○億美元至八○億美元，這可能超過FDIC五三○億美元存款保險金十％。事實上，美國聯邦政府可能會在近期對FDIC實施資本結構調整。有預測顯示，當前信貸危機造成的總體損失將達一兆美元。到目前為止，包括房利美和房地美估計損失在內，已經確認的損失高達五千億美元。
即便如此，華爾街的麻煩仍還未結束。貝爾斯登的倒閉並沒有給其他機構一個「免死金牌」，它們只是在美聯儲的支援下暫時倖免於難。數家華爾街機構可能已經岌岌可危，就像被判定為死亡的植物人。一年之後，華爾街倖存的機構將更少。美國財政部長鮑爾森已經宣佈，打算採取臨時穩定措施，並希望措施能獲得國會批准，以拯救房利美和房地美。臨時穩定措施，是通過為兩家公司提供政府擔保來維持其正常運營。投資者可以繼續購買房利美和房地美的債券以支援其運作，否則，美國住宅市場上將沒有流動性可言。其中一項臨時的穩 定措施，就是美聯儲將向兩家機構直接提供短期融資服務。而這意味著，美聯儲將通過印刷鈔票來拯救金融系統。最終，房地產價格下跌的損失會被貨幣化，並被轉移。
對房利美和房地美的救援行動將弱化美元，推高通脹，提升債券收益率。我相信，援助資金最終將來源於美聯儲新印的鈔票，或部分來自財政部發行的債券。正如我在二○○七年八月提出的觀點，美聯儲的援救行動將增加貨幣供應，並通過商品投機導致通脹上揚。由於美元是世界性貨幣，美國可將金融危機造成的損失通過貨幣化來轉移，而這一舉措僅會導致美元貶值而不會出現美元崩盤。由於國際投資者持有十六兆美元金融資產，貨幣化對美國而言是一個優先考慮的策略。
正如上期講到，這場金融危機導致全球滯脹。信貸危機使得房地產泡沫破裂，打壓全球需求。與此同時，美聯儲大量印刷鈔票拯救金融系統。當貨幣流向金融系統時，投機者用其購買石油等商品。因此，貨幣供給的增加同時轉化為全球通脹。由此產生的負利率無助於全球經濟增長，因為它使得大量的財富重新分配，轉移到石油出口國。這些國家的貿易盈餘重返全球金融體系後，引發更為嚴重的通脹。直到美聯儲將利率提高至六％，並維持不變時，這一惡性循環才能被打破。
我確信，美聯儲將在十一月美國大選之後開始提高利率。由於擔心對經濟增長造成衝擊，利率的提升步伐在初期將是緩慢的，並希望能通過小幅度的利率提升嚇退石油投機者。在二○○九年下半年，美聯儲將意識到恐嚇戰術無效，並開始加快利率提升的步伐。預計聯邦基金利率在二○○九年底將提高至約五％的水平，對油價構成打壓。然而，為了推動經濟增長，美聯儲將在二○一○年再次降息，投機者也將捲土重來。美聯儲與投機者之間的博弈將延續多年，引發通脹出現類似二○世紀七○年代的波動。最終，美國政府將任命一位類似于保羅沃爾克(Paul Volker)這樣的鐵腕人物擔任聯儲主席。新主席將把利率提高至十％，徹底摧毀通脹和投機者。歷史將再次重演！
衰落始末
讓我們重新回到當前危機的討論中來。房利美和房地美與中國的國有銀行相似，它們依賴於政府支援來運作。房利美作為國家經營企業成立於一九三八年大蕭條時期，它主要支援數量眾多的地方儲蓄與貸款機構(Savings and Loans)，後者為當地的城市居民購買住宅提供貸款。
房利美和房地美自成立以來，在提高自有房產權覆蓋率上扮演了重要且積極的角色。擁有自己的房子是「美國夢」的核心，而自有房產權也是市場經濟穩定的基石。房子是最重要的消費品，也是最重要的資產。「居者有其屋」將有助於增強社會穩定。對於政府而言，盡可能地降低抵押成本意義重大。
為了控制風險，房利美和房地美對於它們要購買的抵押資產的要求很嚴格。它們常用兩個指標考核資產，分別是首付比例和家庭收入債務比率。直到信貸危機爆發前，它們的業務一直都是盈利的。
房利美和房地美瀕於破產原因有三
第一，當房地產價格有太多泡沫時，兩家公司的風險控制措施不足。在這輪經濟周期中，美國房屋價值一度達到了GDP的一七○％，相比于歷史平均水平一○○％，房價跌幅也要遠遠高於二○％～三○％的首付比例。由於根據美國法律，抵押合同是一個有限責任合同，房價的下挫使那些持有負資產的人們傾向違約不還貸款。四月，凱斯-希勒(Case-Schiller)房價指數較去年同期下滑十五．三％。直到未來房價結束下跌時，預計該指數還將再跌十五％。截至三月底，房利美和房地美宣稱擁有合計八一○億美元的資本金(占資產總額的一．五％)，當房價平均下挫三○％時，它們的損失將高於資本金。
第二，作為政府發起企業，房利美和房地美必須提供公共服務。二○○七年八月，次貸危機爆發後，政治家呼籲它們為穩定市場發揮作用。在缺乏其他購買者的情況下，它們成了抵押市場的最後購買人。一季度，兩家機構共買入或擔保了市場中八一％的抵押證券。並且，在這樣一個特殊時刻，市場上出售的抵押證券的質量都是可疑的，因為金融機構都試圖將他們最糟糕的資產出手。儘管現在評估房利美和房地美提供公共服務的損失仍為時尚早，但毫無疑問，這是拖累兩家機構的重要因素。
第三，作為政府發起企業，它們無法在複雜的金融市場中有效運作。如同中國的國企，房利美和房地美的雇員類似于公務員，而提供和出售複雜金融產品的華爾街雇員則是高薪頂尖人才。前者可能無法完全理解華爾街提供給他們的複雜金融產品，而後者可能會充分利用前者無知的弱點增加銷售。考慮到這一點，房利美和房地美可能成為華爾街製造的這場信貸泡沫中的最大受害者。由於它們是政府發起的企業，政府也陷入到華爾街的圈套中。隨著美聯儲將損失作貨幣化處理，最終，全球的美元持有者都將是受害人。
在上述三個原因中，最後一個是關鍵。通過從華爾街購買複雜的金融產品，兩家機構為泡沫的膨脹起到了推波助瀾的作用，而政府支援的企業並沒有足夠的能力理解複雜的金融產品。我很擔心，中國的國有金融機構過於迫切地與華爾街打交道，可能會重蹈房利美和房地美的覆轍。
目前的金融危機表現為金融系統出現逐漸爆炸的特點，但尚沒有出現一個能量相當於核爆炸的事件使得問題徹底暴露，令市場觸底。如果房利美和房地美被允許破產，那這將是一個「核爆炸事件」。當然，美國政府正在拯救它們，這場危機還要繼續拖延下去。相比之下，一九九八年的亞洲金融危機，亞洲國家將本國貨幣貶值五○％，而股市也出現腰斬，以美元計價的資產市值大幅縮水七五％。這些地區的銀行也快速破產。但在一個相對較短時間內，市場恢復信心，危機也觸底好轉。
擴大貨幣供應量將推高油價。美國每天進口一千萬桶原油，如果油價上漲十美元，美國每年將損失三六○億美元。但只要印鈔票彌補危機的好處大於油價上揚的損失，美聯儲就會繼續開動印鈔機。只要美聯儲繼續以印刷鈔票的辦法來應對美國金融危機，石油、黃金和商品市場將會表現優異，而債市將走熊。(本文轉載自中國北京七月廿一日出版的總二一六期《財經》雜誌)
Friday, July 25, 2008
債券大王Gross再唱衰美國經濟 預測房市崩潰將損失1兆美元
鉅亨網謝淑娟．綜合報導2008 / 07 / 25 星期五 14:10 寄給朋友 友善列印
《Bloomberg》 報導，「債券大王」Bill Gross再度看衰美國房市和經濟前景，預測美國房市崩潰，將令金融機構損失多達 1兆美元。24日同時公布的美國就業及房市數據明顯低於預期，有如附和 Gross的觀點。 美國上個月二手屋銷售量下跌2.6%，跌幅比市場預期多 1倍，創10年來最低。平均樓價為 21.51萬美元，比去年同期下滑6.1%。此外，美國上周新申請失業救濟的人數上升至40.6萬人，增加 3.4萬人，超過市場預期，創 3月以來最高；這些數據都加深了投資人對美國經濟的疑慮。
Gross 24日在旗下太平洋投資管理公司(Pacific Investment Management Co.) 的網站發表評論，談到房市和經濟前景。他指出，當前有多達 5兆美元的按揭貸款屬於「高風險資產類別」，認為因信貸危機導致的損失，目前浮現的應不及一半。
自2007年以來，全球金融機構已蒙受了4679億美元的撇帳和損失。 Gross表示，面對 1兆美元的撇帳損失，若金融機構未能取得足夠的注資，「只能出售資產、減少借貸，或兩者兼行；此情勢已開始影響美國經濟成長。」
《Bloomberg》 報導，「債券大王」Bill Gross再度看衰美國房市和經濟前景，預測美國房市崩潰，將令金融機構損失多達 1兆美元。24日同時公布的美國就業及房市數據明顯低於預期，有如附和 Gross的觀點。 美國上個月二手屋銷售量下跌2.6%，跌幅比市場預期多 1倍，創10年來最低。平均樓價為 21.51萬美元，比去年同期下滑6.1%。此外，美國上周新申請失業救濟的人數上升至40.6萬人，增加 3.4萬人，超過市場預期，創 3月以來最高；這些數據都加深了投資人對美國經濟的疑慮。
Gross 24日在旗下太平洋投資管理公司(Pacific Investment Management Co.) 的網站發表評論，談到房市和經濟前景。他指出，當前有多達 5兆美元的按揭貸款屬於「高風險資產類別」，認為因信貸危機導致的損失，目前浮現的應不及一半。
自2007年以來，全球金融機構已蒙受了4679億美元的撇帳和損失。 Gross表示，面對 1兆美元的撇帳損失，若金融機構未能取得足夠的注資，「只能出售資產、減少借貸，或兩者兼行；此情勢已開始影響美國經濟成長。」
債券大王Gross再唱衰美國經濟 預測房市崩潰將損失1兆美元
鉅亨網謝淑娟．綜合報導2008 / 07 / 25 星期五 14:10 寄給朋友 友善列印
《Bloomberg》 報導，「債券大王」Bill Gross再度看衰美國房市和經濟前景，預測美國房市崩潰，將令金融機構損失多達 1兆美元。24日同時公布的美國就業及房市數據明顯低於預期，有如附和 Gross的觀點。 美國上個月二手屋銷售量下跌2.6%，跌幅比市場預期多 1倍，創10年來最低。平均樓價為 21.51萬美元，比去年同期下滑6.1%。此外，美國上周新申請失業救濟的人數上升至40.6萬人，增加 3.4萬人，超過市場預期，創 3月以來最高；這些數據都加深了投資人對美國經濟的疑慮。
Gross 24日在旗下太平洋投資管理公司(Pacific Investment Management Co.) 的網站發表評論，談到房市和經濟前景。他指出，當前有多達 5兆美元的按揭貸款屬於「高風險資產類別」，認為因信貸危機導致的損失，目前浮現的應不及一半。
自2007年以來，全球金融機構已蒙受了4679億美元的撇帳和損失。 Gross表示，面對 1兆美元的撇帳損失，若金融機構未能取得足夠的注資，「只能出售資產、減少借貸，或兩者兼行；此情勢已開始影響美國經濟成長。」
《Bloomberg》 報導，「債券大王」Bill Gross再度看衰美國房市和經濟前景，預測美國房市崩潰，將令金融機構損失多達 1兆美元。24日同時公布的美國就業及房市數據明顯低於預期，有如附和 Gross的觀點。 美國上個月二手屋銷售量下跌2.6%，跌幅比市場預期多 1倍，創10年來最低。平均樓價為 21.51萬美元，比去年同期下滑6.1%。此外，美國上周新申請失業救濟的人數上升至40.6萬人，增加 3.4萬人，超過市場預期，創 3月以來最高；這些數據都加深了投資人對美國經濟的疑慮。
Gross 24日在旗下太平洋投資管理公司(Pacific Investment Management Co.) 的網站發表評論，談到房市和經濟前景。他指出，當前有多達 5兆美元的按揭貸款屬於「高風險資產類別」，認為因信貸危機導致的損失，目前浮現的應不及一半。
自2007年以來，全球金融機構已蒙受了4679億美元的撇帳和損失。 Gross表示，面對 1兆美元的撇帳損失，若金融機構未能取得足夠的注資，「只能出售資產、減少借貸，或兩者兼行；此情勢已開始影響美國經濟成長。」
分析師：原油熊市氣氛仍濃 未來一週最低下探117美元
鉅亨網謝淑娟．綜合報導2008 / 07 / 25 星期五 12:55 寄給朋友 友善列印 石油供應商表示，昨(24)日回補買盤令油價脫離近 2週低點，今(25)日上午，亞洲油價在 125美元左右不變；不過分析師認為，市場對需求的擔憂揮之不去，油價今日進一步上漲的可能性不大。 《XFN-ASIA》報導指出，油價高漲，加以美國經濟趨緩，市場擔憂將破壞石油的需求，使油價從本月新高 147美元大跌逾20美元。但技術性反彈，以及回補盤，推升昨日油價走強。
石油貿易諮詢公司Ritterbusch & Associates總裁 Jim Ritterbusch表示，過去一週市場大量拋售，顯示投資人對需求惡化相當關注。對此，投資人應對股市的下跌更加注意，而非匯市未來走勢。
此外，美國二手屋銷售數據低於預期，令美國經濟前景更加暗淡，並拖累隔日美國股市下跌2%。
鋻於油市熊市氣氛仍濃， Ritterbusch預計今日不會出現回補反彈。未來一周內，原油價格最低可能至一桶 117美元。
部份分析師認為，自 7月中旬以來，油價與其它商品市場的下跌，已使部份交易商對美元空頭倉位∕石油多頭倉位做出了一定的改變，致使美元兌日元創下單月新高。
石油供應商還說，美國昨日周四公佈的疲弱經濟數據，加上溫和的天氣預報，令天然氣期貨價格價下跌5%，將拖累油價。不過熱帶風暴 Dolly轉向南德克薩斯州，因此對原油、天然氣與燃油生產已幾乎不會造成任何影響。
儘管油價近期下跌，但由於中國等新興經濟體的需求，今年以來油價已上漲近 30%，為2002年的 6倍。
截至台北時間 12:30，紐約商品交易所 (NYMEX) 9月期貨價格上漲76美分，暫報126.25美元。倫敦布蘭特 (Brent) 9月原油期貨價格則上漲51美分，暫報126.95美元。
石油貿易諮詢公司Ritterbusch & Associates總裁 Jim Ritterbusch表示，過去一週市場大量拋售，顯示投資人對需求惡化相當關注。對此，投資人應對股市的下跌更加注意，而非匯市未來走勢。
此外，美國二手屋銷售數據低於預期，令美國經濟前景更加暗淡，並拖累隔日美國股市下跌2%。
鋻於油市熊市氣氛仍濃， Ritterbusch預計今日不會出現回補反彈。未來一周內，原油價格最低可能至一桶 117美元。
部份分析師認為，自 7月中旬以來，油價與其它商品市場的下跌，已使部份交易商對美元空頭倉位∕石油多頭倉位做出了一定的改變，致使美元兌日元創下單月新高。
石油供應商還說，美國昨日周四公佈的疲弱經濟數據，加上溫和的天氣預報，令天然氣期貨價格價下跌5%，將拖累油價。不過熱帶風暴 Dolly轉向南德克薩斯州，因此對原油、天然氣與燃油生產已幾乎不會造成任何影響。
儘管油價近期下跌，但由於中國等新興經濟體的需求，今年以來油價已上漲近 30%，為2002年的 6倍。
截至台北時間 12:30，紐約商品交易所 (NYMEX) 9月期貨價格上漲76美分，暫報126.25美元。倫敦布蘭特 (Brent) 9月原油期貨價格則上漲51美分，暫報126.95美元。
金融管理局局长：通胀率已达顶峰
（2008-07-25） ● 胡渊文 由于油价和全球商品价格仍然居高不下，因此金融管理局今年第三次调高对全年通货膨胀率的预测，从5月份宣布的5％至6％，调高到6％至7％。
不过，金管局局长王瑞杰昨天在该局的年报发布会上表示，我国的通胀率已达到顶峰，将在下半年有所回落。他预测，下半年的通胀率将介于4.9％至6.9％之间，全年通胀率可能会达到6.5％的水平。
我国6月份的通胀率是7.5％，已连续三个月维持在26年来的最高水平，上半年通胀达到了7.1％。政府已分别于今年2月和5月调高全年的通胀预测，从最初的3.5％至4.5％调高到6％至7％。
花旗集团的经济师吉伟正指出，金管局再度调高预测，可能反映了两个因素。第一，前几轮石油价格上涨的滞后效应会在下半年出现，电费、巴士和德士车费也会在第三季上扬；第二，最近公路电子收费(ERP)的增加可能会把7月份的通胀率推高0.5％至1％。
王瑞杰解释说，通胀率预计将在下半年回落，主要有四个原因。首先，去年调高消费税的一次过影响会在7月份消失。
其次，虽然全球商品价格依然持高，但增长速度预计会较上半年有所放缓。另外，由于经济增长的放缓和资产市场的整合，有早期迹象显示国内成本压力有所减轻。例如商业租金增幅看来已达到顶峰；近期调查也显示，雇主在聘请员工时更谨慎，意味着人力市场的压力有所缓解。
第四，王瑞杰强调，金管局自2004年以来便采取让新元名义有效汇率(S$NEER)升值的政策，并于去年10月和今年4月两度收紧货币政策来应付通胀压力。从2004年4月到今年6月期间，新元名义有效汇率升值了12.2％，对美元的汇率攀升了23.4％。
金管局表示，目前的货币政策依然适用，并将在10月发表货币政策声明。
虽然金管局调高了对全年通胀的预测，但经济师认为，由于经济增长面临着走下坡的风险，金管局不太可能会在10月进一步收紧货币政策，并可能在今年第四季把关注的焦点转向维持经济增长。
吉伟正表示，金管局会偏向维持现有的货币政策，因为前两轮政策收紧的滞后影响，也许已足够控制成本上涨的压力。 联昌国际的经济师宋生文认为，对金管局来说，保持现有政策是最合适的。他说，目前尚不需要通过收紧政策来刺激经济增长；另一方面，继续收紧政策也不可取，因为经济增长面临着走下坡的风险。
次季预估增长1.9％
与此同时，虽然本地第二季经济预估增长只有1.9％，加上第一季的6.9％增长，我国今年上半年平均增长只稍微超过4％，但金管局还是维持对本地经济全年4％至6％的增长预测。
Slow demand for office space hits rents
Posted on July 25, 2008 by lushhomeonline
SINGAPORE’S booming office market is facing a drop in demand and a slowdown in rents that have left many wondering: What happens next, when a host of new developments are launched?
Tight supply and high demand, mostly from financial institutions, made Singapore the ninth most expensive office market in the world, ahead of rival Hong Kong, according to property consultant CB Richard Ellis. Rents nearly doubled on-year last year, after rising by more than 50 per cent in 2006.
The Government started boosting land supply two years ago, but a global financial crisis that has made companies increasingly cost-conscious, and the increase in supply, is sounding alarm bells for analysts.
“We are increasingly concerned about the risk of demand falling short of expectations,” Citigroup said in a report.
“The strong Singapore dollar, the high rental rates, the slowing economy and the uncertainties surrounding the financial industries are likely to put a lid on new demand for office space.”
Citigroup estimates that rents could fall 30% to 35% by 2011 as a host of new office buildings are expected to be ready for occupancy.
Singapore currently has 71 million square feet of office space, and is expected to add about 10 million by 2012.
Official second-quarter figures on office rents and occupancy aren’t out yet, but according to CB Richard Ellis, average prime and top classed Grade A office rents edged up just 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively, in the quarter over the previous three months. And even though Grade A office vacancies remained tight at less than 1%, the rate just outside the central business district rose to 7% from 4.6%.
Government figures for the first quarter of the year already show vacant office space in the island grew slightly over the previous three months, while the pace of rental increase has slowed considerably since the second half of last year.
While landlords, including real estate investment trusts, will obviously feel any pinch arising from lower rents, there could be a lag before the pain sets in.
According to Kim Eng analysts Wilson Liew, many property owners are still charging rents locked in years ago, which are probably still below market prices in the near future.
He estimates rents should fall to S$15 to S$16 per square foot over two to three years, from a current average rate of S$18.
Heavyweight real estate investment trust CapitaCommercial Trust, however, is less pessimistic about the near term, saying Wednesday that, because of tight supply, office rents should remain relatively stable over the next two years, although it still expects a decline in 2010 and hasn’t given estimates for 2011 - when the bulk of new supply will come online.
“Beyond that, it depends on what the take-up will be for the new buildings,” said Lynette Leong, chief executive of CapitaCommercial Trust Management, the trust’s manager.
Nobody is suggesting the market is in for a hard landing, but already, many companies that rent are beginning to reevaluate their leasing strategies.
That includes renting offices in Singapore’s suburbs to avoid the high rents and the space crunch of the business district, property consultancy DTZ said.
Citibank, DBS Group and Standard Chartered have all announced plans to expand or relocate some operations to a business park in Changi.
Source : Today - 25 Jul 2008
SINGAPORE’S booming office market is facing a drop in demand and a slowdown in rents that have left many wondering: What happens next, when a host of new developments are launched?
Tight supply and high demand, mostly from financial institutions, made Singapore the ninth most expensive office market in the world, ahead of rival Hong Kong, according to property consultant CB Richard Ellis. Rents nearly doubled on-year last year, after rising by more than 50 per cent in 2006.
The Government started boosting land supply two years ago, but a global financial crisis that has made companies increasingly cost-conscious, and the increase in supply, is sounding alarm bells for analysts.
“We are increasingly concerned about the risk of demand falling short of expectations,” Citigroup said in a report.
“The strong Singapore dollar, the high rental rates, the slowing economy and the uncertainties surrounding the financial industries are likely to put a lid on new demand for office space.”
Citigroup estimates that rents could fall 30% to 35% by 2011 as a host of new office buildings are expected to be ready for occupancy.
Singapore currently has 71 million square feet of office space, and is expected to add about 10 million by 2012.
Official second-quarter figures on office rents and occupancy aren’t out yet, but according to CB Richard Ellis, average prime and top classed Grade A office rents edged up just 0.8% and 0.6%, respectively, in the quarter over the previous three months. And even though Grade A office vacancies remained tight at less than 1%, the rate just outside the central business district rose to 7% from 4.6%.
Government figures for the first quarter of the year already show vacant office space in the island grew slightly over the previous three months, while the pace of rental increase has slowed considerably since the second half of last year.
While landlords, including real estate investment trusts, will obviously feel any pinch arising from lower rents, there could be a lag before the pain sets in.
According to Kim Eng analysts Wilson Liew, many property owners are still charging rents locked in years ago, which are probably still below market prices in the near future.
He estimates rents should fall to S$15 to S$16 per square foot over two to three years, from a current average rate of S$18.
Heavyweight real estate investment trust CapitaCommercial Trust, however, is less pessimistic about the near term, saying Wednesday that, because of tight supply, office rents should remain relatively stable over the next two years, although it still expects a decline in 2010 and hasn’t given estimates for 2011 - when the bulk of new supply will come online.
“Beyond that, it depends on what the take-up will be for the new buildings,” said Lynette Leong, chief executive of CapitaCommercial Trust Management, the trust’s manager.
Nobody is suggesting the market is in for a hard landing, but already, many companies that rent are beginning to reevaluate their leasing strategies.
That includes renting offices in Singapore’s suburbs to avoid the high rents and the space crunch of the business district, property consultancy DTZ said.
Citibank, DBS Group and Standard Chartered have all announced plans to expand or relocate some operations to a business park in Changi.
Source : Today - 25 Jul 2008
金融管理局將2008年通 膨目標由原估的5-6%調高到6-7%
新加坡位階相當於中央銀行的金融管理局將2008年通 膨目標由原估的5-6%調高到6-7%，但維持貨幣政策立 場不變，星元匯價應聲上漲。雖然預期通膨上升，但 金管局局長王瑞傑也強調經濟成長的風險，並研議新 的措施來限制本地金融產業的波動。新加坡6月通膨 率達7.5%，連續3個月維持在26年來高點。分析師表 示，金管局憂心經濟情勢，應不會在10月的下次會議 改變貨幣政策。
Thursday, July 24, 2008
美國眾議院表決通過住房市場相關法案
財匯資訊提供，摘自：華爾街日報2008 / 07 / 24 星期四 15:10 寄給朋友 友善列印
美國國會(Congress)和布什政府週三承諾在未來幾天內頒布一項涉及內容廣泛的住房法令。這一法令旨在為面臨止贖的貸款者提供幫助，緩解金融市場的緊張情緒，令自大蕭條以來最惡劣的住房市場狀況得到改善。 美國眾議院週三下午以272比152的表決結果通過了一項住房法案，內容包括：為抵押貸款再融資提供3,000億美元聯邦貸款擔保的計劃，設立新的監管機構監督房利美(FannieMae)和房地美(FreddieMa)，以及對聯邦住宅委員會(FederalHousingAdministration)進行重大改革。
此外，美國財政部(Treasury)部長鮑爾森(HenryPaulson)提出的由聯邦政府向房利美和房地美提供緊急援助的方案也包括其中，該方案旨在緩解資本市場對兩家公司償付能力的擔憂。
在眾議院進行上述表決前數小時，白宮(WhiteHouse)宣佈放棄對上述法案行使否決權。
接下來只需要參議院(Senate)表決通過該法案，總統布什(Bush)便能簽署法案令其生效。預計參議院將在未來幾天內進行最終的表決。
美國國會(Congress)和布什政府週三承諾在未來幾天內頒布一項涉及內容廣泛的住房法令。這一法令旨在為面臨止贖的貸款者提供幫助，緩解金融市場的緊張情緒，令自大蕭條以來最惡劣的住房市場狀況得到改善。 美國眾議院週三下午以272比152的表決結果通過了一項住房法案，內容包括：為抵押貸款再融資提供3,000億美元聯邦貸款擔保的計劃，設立新的監管機構監督房利美(FannieMae)和房地美(FreddieMa)，以及對聯邦住宅委員會(FederalHousingAdministration)進行重大改革。
此外，美國財政部(Treasury)部長鮑爾森(HenryPaulson)提出的由聯邦政府向房利美和房地美提供緊急援助的方案也包括其中，該方案旨在緩解資本市場對兩家公司償付能力的擔憂。
在眾議院進行上述表決前數小時，白宮(WhiteHouse)宣佈放棄對上述法案行使否決權。
接下來只需要參議院(Senate)表決通過該法案，總統布什(Bush)便能簽署法案令其生效。預計參議院將在未來幾天內進行最終的表決。
上海二手房市場：7月盛夏似寒冬觀望成主流
來源：國際金融報2008 / 07 / 24 星期四 13:42 寄給朋友 友善列印 有大量的剛性需求客戶都在持幣觀望。他們對房價回調的希望導致其與上家在房屋價格上的僵持，減緩了成交速度，房價也因為這樣的成交萎縮而出現了不同程度的下降 今年二手房市場的成交量在繼三四月的少量回暖後，五六月連續下跌，7月達到淡季，其慘澹程度可能比預期的更為嚴重。這是記者從搜狐焦點房地產網舉辦的“四地經紀評點樓市論壇”上得到的資訊。在本次論壇上，上海三大房屋仲介公司漢宇地產、福美來不動產和九間伴不動產的總經理一同對今年上半年二手房市場做了盤點，並對下半年房市的走勢做了預測。
觀望成主流
今年上半年二手房市場的總體情況是，在成交量上，經歷了去年宏觀整體的緊縮，尤其是第二套房限貸以後，需求的累積導致三四月恢復明顯。而5月比4月下調近20%，為1.2萬至1.5萬套。6月進入調整期後，成交量在1萬套左右。7月繼續下跌，下跌幅度為在五六月的基礎上再下跌20%-30%，成交大約8000到9000套。今年7月，將是比預計更淡的一個月。
漢宇地產總經理施宏睿指出，有大量的剛性需求客戶都在持幣觀望。他們對房價回調的希望導致其與上家在房屋價格上的僵持，減緩了成交速度，房價也因為這樣的成交萎縮而出現了不同程度的下降。九間伴不動產的總經理季文華表示，“總體上,上海二手房市場仍然是供大於求的，通貨膨脹、股市下跌、存款利率不高，導致大量業主持房觀望。”
新房供大於求
另外，對於二手房市場有連貫性牽動的新房市場，在總體成交價格有所下降的情況下，高檔住宅還出現了價格上揚。在成交量上，今年新房的成交量大約只有去年同期的40%。由於一手房與新房存在相互替代關係，所以新房的價格下降必定會影響到二手房的定價。新房市場也是供大於求的狀態，現在供需比例為1.28比1。
施宏睿分析，在市場良好期，二手房和新房的成交量大約各占90%和10%，而去年，這一比例調整為二手房75%，新房25%。在今年，這一比例是50%對50%。可見二手房市場在今年的調整期中承受了比新房市場更大的壓力。
政策決定走向
對於今年房產市場在下半年的預期，上海福美來不動產總經理胡正華表示，上海由於其國際化大都市的地位，市場受供求關係控制明顯，所以上海受宏觀影響面比其他城市都要小。
而施宏睿則預計，宏觀調控將是衝擊房市的最大因素，其次，人民幣匯率上調的話會導致外資外逃，也會衝擊房產市場，最後股市中被套牢的資金也將直接影響房市。對於下半年，他還是有信心的，相信在奧運會後，政府就會開始干預房市，公佈一系列的新政策。
季文華指出，前段時間溫總理在媒體上說要穩定房地產市場，防止大漲大跌。其實政府的政策導向面是穩定，下半年的市場變化很可能和政策有直接關聯。如果有好的政策出臺，房價會進一步上升。如果國家政策不出臺，那麼開發商為了自救就可能採取降價銷售，這就會引起房地產市場的波動。由於2005年上海房市已經經歷過一個調整期，現在的調整是很正常的週期現象。
他還認為，上海房地產市場現在85％為剛性自住需求，15％為保值投資。宏觀調控由流轉稅體現出來，而下半年最值得關注的就是物業稅的出臺。預計上海將對144平方米以上房產徵收每年市值0.5%-0.8%的持有稅，這將導致投資型客戶在壓力下跑向市場。
觀望成主流
今年上半年二手房市場的總體情況是，在成交量上，經歷了去年宏觀整體的緊縮，尤其是第二套房限貸以後，需求的累積導致三四月恢復明顯。而5月比4月下調近20%，為1.2萬至1.5萬套。6月進入調整期後，成交量在1萬套左右。7月繼續下跌，下跌幅度為在五六月的基礎上再下跌20%-30%，成交大約8000到9000套。今年7月，將是比預計更淡的一個月。
漢宇地產總經理施宏睿指出，有大量的剛性需求客戶都在持幣觀望。他們對房價回調的希望導致其與上家在房屋價格上的僵持，減緩了成交速度，房價也因為這樣的成交萎縮而出現了不同程度的下降。九間伴不動產的總經理季文華表示，“總體上,上海二手房市場仍然是供大於求的，通貨膨脹、股市下跌、存款利率不高，導致大量業主持房觀望。”
新房供大於求
另外，對於二手房市場有連貫性牽動的新房市場，在總體成交價格有所下降的情況下，高檔住宅還出現了價格上揚。在成交量上，今年新房的成交量大約只有去年同期的40%。由於一手房與新房存在相互替代關係，所以新房的價格下降必定會影響到二手房的定價。新房市場也是供大於求的狀態，現在供需比例為1.28比1。
施宏睿分析，在市場良好期，二手房和新房的成交量大約各占90%和10%，而去年，這一比例調整為二手房75%，新房25%。在今年，這一比例是50%對50%。可見二手房市場在今年的調整期中承受了比新房市場更大的壓力。
政策決定走向
對於今年房產市場在下半年的預期，上海福美來不動產總經理胡正華表示，上海由於其國際化大都市的地位，市場受供求關係控制明顯，所以上海受宏觀影響面比其他城市都要小。
而施宏睿則預計，宏觀調控將是衝擊房市的最大因素，其次，人民幣匯率上調的話會導致外資外逃，也會衝擊房產市場，最後股市中被套牢的資金也將直接影響房市。對於下半年，他還是有信心的，相信在奧運會後，政府就會開始干預房市，公佈一系列的新政策。
季文華指出，前段時間溫總理在媒體上說要穩定房地產市場，防止大漲大跌。其實政府的政策導向面是穩定，下半年的市場變化很可能和政策有直接關聯。如果有好的政策出臺，房價會進一步上升。如果國家政策不出臺，那麼開發商為了自救就可能採取降價銷售，這就會引起房地產市場的波動。由於2005年上海房市已經經歷過一個調整期，現在的調整是很正常的週期現象。
他還認為，上海房地產市場現在85％為剛性自住需求，15％為保值投資。宏觀調控由流轉稅體現出來，而下半年最值得關注的就是物業稅的出臺。預計上海將對144平方米以上房產徵收每年市值0.5%-0.8%的持有稅，這將導致投資型客戶在壓力下跑向市場。
題材多多地產股全線跑贏大市
財匯資訊提供，摘自：證券時報2008 / 07 / 24 星期四 11:44 寄給朋友 友善列印 昨日在港股大盤急升607點的情況下，恆生地產股分類指數仍跑贏大市。主要是因為香港本地地產股全線造好，其中部分藍籌地產股表現更為搶眼，一些國際投行對地產股的長期走勢也持樂觀態度。
地產股跑贏大市
截至昨日收盤，恆指報23134.55 點，大升607.07點，漲幅2.3%，成交757.86億；恆生地產股分類指數漲2.8%，跑贏大市。
分析人士指出，地產股之所以表現強勁，主要是因為最近困擾地產股的兩大憂慮———加息預期及股市走軟造成的負面效應均已經消退。
在昨日表現強勁的地產股中，以信和置業(00083.)及嘉裡建設(00683.)表現最佳，漲幅均超6%。受信置在香港仔的項目獲准以最高地積比率10倍發展的消息影響，該股股價急升6.64%，至16.7港元；而嘉裡則因該公司宣佈，將攜手姊妹公司香格里拉(00069.)成立合資企業，投資人民幣84億元開發唐山的中心商務區項目，消息助推其股價一度上漲7.01%，最終升6.49%至41港元，但距離其50天移動均線的46.46港元仍較遠。其他升幅較大的地產股，還包括新世界發展(00017.)及恆隆地產(00101.)，分別升6.11%及3.79%；長江實業(00001.)則因將在廣州投資10億元，開建動漫主題公園，股價升0.91%，但明顯跑輸大市。
投行看多地產股龍頭
大華繼顯表示，香港上半年的住宅落成量及施工量創出新低，因此擔心長期新供應量會跌至不健康的水平，而發展商未來將更依重項目的毛利，而非銷量。該行指出，面對宏觀環境的惡化，支持樓價的唯一因素是房屋的供應量供不應求。但因本地消費信心轉弱，短期將拖累香港樓價的表現，估計今年底前樓價將下跌10%，如果環球金融狀況短期未能回穩，跌幅可能更大。未來數月地產股將維持窄幅上下調整格局。同時，因新地及恆地擁有較大的經常性收入來源，以及項目溢價較高，給予它們「買入」投資評級。
DBS唯高達稱，最近香港地產股拋盤過度，交易機會開始顯現。該行稱，在購買興趣日趨減弱的情況下，住宅市場至少在未來6個月內將變得疲軟，因此近期缺乏獲得持續重新評級的強有力催化劑。但考慮到有利的供應狀況和正收益率，沒有必要過於悲觀，預計住宅價格在未來一年將保持大致穩定。在地產發展商中，該行從發展收益能見度相對較好的角度出發，看好長江實業、信和置業。
DBS補充稱，香港的房地產信託基金將依然是安全的避風港，因收益具有抗跌彈性和較高的能見度，看好領匯房地產投資信託基金(00823.)和冠君產業信託(02778.)。昨日兩隻股票表現平平，分別微跌0.69%及漲1.4%。
時富資產管理有限公司聯席董事姚浩然稱，地產股最近回調似乎有點過度，因為回調的幅度已經完全消化了地產市場實際惡化程度帶來的影響。在地產股中，看好那些上半年住宅銷量龐大的公司，即長江實業和信和置業。另外，時富資產維持嘉裡建設「買入」評級，目標價71.60港元。
布朗：英國擬明年上半年撤回大半駐伊拉克軍隊
鉅亨網查淑妝‧台北綜合報導2008 / 07 / 24 星期四 11:58 寄給朋友 友善列印 英國首相布朗(Gordon Brown)22日在下議院表示，鑒於伊拉克治安狀況有所好轉，駐伊英軍的任務「在2009年上半年將發生根本性轉變」，暗示計劃屆時撤回大部分駐軍。儘管布朗並未明確撤軍的幅度，但《泰晤士報》23日報導說，駐伊英軍的規模可能減至200-300人。 中新網引述日本共同社報導，英國政府去年也曾提出過2008年春季撤回1500名駐伊軍隊的計劃，但由於 3月巴士拉戰局激化，該計劃被取消。布朗今後似乎也將考慮到美國總統選舉結果和12月伊拉克地方選舉後的治安狀況等因素，進行靈活處理。
布朗指出，從明年起英軍的任務將是「建立類似英國和(中東)其他重要國家之間的那種長期雙邊關係」。該發言可能參考了英國目前正在沙烏地阿拉伯等國實施的幫助中東國家實現軍隊現代化的先例。
目前約有4000名英軍駐紮在伊拉克南部城市巴士拉的機場，幫助訓練伊拉克軍隊。布朗表示，去年夏季平均每月發生約200起襲擊英軍的事件，而今年4月以後每月僅發生5起，強調當地治安狀況得到了改善。
布朗19日曾與伊拉克總理馬利基舉行了會談，當時他表示「在目前情況下不會制定(撤軍)時間表」。
布朗指出，從明年起英軍的任務將是「建立類似英國和(中東)其他重要國家之間的那種長期雙邊關係」。該發言可能參考了英國目前正在沙烏地阿拉伯等國實施的幫助中東國家實現軍隊現代化的先例。
目前約有4000名英軍駐紮在伊拉克南部城市巴士拉的機場，幫助訓練伊拉克軍隊。布朗表示，去年夏季平均每月發生約200起襲擊英軍的事件，而今年4月以後每月僅發生5起，強調當地治安狀況得到了改善。
布朗19日曾與伊拉克總理馬利基舉行了會談，當時他表示「在目前情況下不會制定(撤軍)時間表」。
力抗通膨 巴西央行施鐵腕 一舉升息3碼至13%
鉅亨網編譯吳國仲‧綜合外電2008 / 07 / 24 星期四 12:35 寄給朋友 友善列印 因擔憂國內通膨壓力與內需的持續強勁，巴西央行周三晚發布聲明表示，決策委員會無異議通過調升指標利率(Selic rate) 3碼(75基點)，由12.25%升至13.00%。 央行委員會於會後聲明中表示：「取決於宏觀經濟之前景，並為了迅速平抑通膨至目標值內，Copom(指委員會) 無異議決定升息至13.00%。」
先前的兩次利率會議中，巴西央行已升息了 0.5個百分點(50基點)，而此回升息當有進一步抑制通膨之效。
根據 Dow Jones Newswires訪問28位分析師所作調查，僅有12位預估將升息75基點，其餘則預估為升息50基點。
巴西的內需經濟活動相當活躍，主要由糧食與大宗商品的漲價壓力所驅使，以及民眾持續上升的通膨預期。有鑑於此，巴西央行方決定須進一步加以因應。
毫無疑問，巴西的通膨指標引人擔憂。
巴西 6月份官方IPCA通膨率年增 6.06%，儘管處於2.5-6.5%的目標區間內，但卻遠高於政府設定2008年底控制目標的4.5%。而分析師亦普遍認為，通膨展望將趨於惡化。
根據巴西央行最新的每周市場參與者調查指出，範圍廣及 100家金融機構的受訪者提高了2008年IPCA通膨率的平均預估至 6.53%，高於央行的目標區間。
因此，央行總裁Henrique Meirelles上周不得不作出表示，官員們已放棄於2008年成功抑制通膨，而將著眼於2009年目標的4.5%。他說：「本央行重申達成通膨目標的承諾，並將於必要時採取任何可行措施。」
分析師預估，迄2008年底，央行指標利率將升至14.25%；明年IPCA通膨率則預估為5%。
先前的兩次利率會議中，巴西央行已升息了 0.5個百分點(50基點)，而此回升息當有進一步抑制通膨之效。
根據 Dow Jones Newswires訪問28位分析師所作調查，僅有12位預估將升息75基點，其餘則預估為升息50基點。
巴西的內需經濟活動相當活躍，主要由糧食與大宗商品的漲價壓力所驅使，以及民眾持續上升的通膨預期。有鑑於此，巴西央行方決定須進一步加以因應。
毫無疑問，巴西的通膨指標引人擔憂。
巴西 6月份官方IPCA通膨率年增 6.06%，儘管處於2.5-6.5%的目標區間內，但卻遠高於政府設定2008年底控制目標的4.5%。而分析師亦普遍認為，通膨展望將趨於惡化。
根據巴西央行最新的每周市場參與者調查指出，範圍廣及 100家金融機構的受訪者提高了2008年IPCA通膨率的平均預估至 6.53%，高於央行的目標區間。
因此，央行總裁Henrique Meirelles上周不得不作出表示，官員們已放棄於2008年成功抑制通膨，而將著眼於2009年目標的4.5%。他說：「本央行重申達成通膨目標的承諾，並將於必要時採取任何可行措施。」
分析師預估，迄2008年底，央行指標利率將升至14.25%；明年IPCA通膨率則預估為5%。
健檢 人生最重要的１項投資
( 2008/07/23 )假設人生的價值，建立在財富數字的幾個「０」之上，那麼，健康絕對是那些「０」之前的關鍵數字「１」，沒有了健康，所有的財富只是無用的「０」。在強調理財觀念的今天，其實健康投資才是萬富之首，而預防重於治療，健檢更是健康投資的第一步。
今年五月，正當新政府走馬上任的前夕，準內政部長廖風德卻傳出在爬山途中忽然昏倒，雖然有大批醫療團隊的拯救，依然回天乏術。這起意外，不但讓陪同爬山的廖夫人痛失至親，在眾人替廖家人頓失依靠、唏噓萬分之際，原本等著鳴槍起跑的劉內閣，更一時亂了陣腳。
醫生診斷，廖風德的死因是心肌梗塞，雖然是無預警，但事實上他早有危險因子，特別是長時間的壓力，成了猝死的元凶。這讓與廖風德深交多年的國民黨主席遺憾不已，在告別式中就紅著眼眶激動地說：「我就叫他要好好注意自己的身體，不要逞強！」
這種「千金難買早知道」的情事，廖風德早已不是第一樁。在去年二月二十三日，人稱「馬爺」的知名歌手馬兆駿，原本和正在坐月子的馬嫂Judy歡喜迎接新生命到來，孰料兩人一同到超市購物時，他竟忽然昏倒，送醫後無力回天。
四十八歲就撒手人寰，讓Judy看著剛出生就失怙的孩子，想起未來，悲慟不已，直問蒼天：「為何活生生的人，就這麼走了？」而事後發現，馬兆駿儘管本人身體健康，但家族卻有心血管疾病的遺傳，馬兆駿父親也是驟逝的，這更讓Judy懊悔萬分，「早該要他去做健康檢查！」
無價！健康投資甚於財富投資
事實上，一個人的健康問題，不僅可能導致自己死亡、重創自己的生活品質，更可能是對家人、社會形成沉重的負擔。誠如廖風德的猝死，就給台灣人一記當頭棒喝：「原來健康不僅是自己的！」
對此，高雄義大醫院健診部部長許家彰就語重心長地說：「倘若一個人財富，是以存款數字中的幾個『○』為依據，那麼健康就是這些『○』前面的那個『１』，一旦失去了健康，所有的財富也只不過是一堆無用的『○』！」因此，在「健康無價」的前提下，健康絕對是財富的關鍵，一個人再怎麼懂得理財，卻不懂得理「健康」，人生很可能是一場無用的投資。
而誠如古人所云：「上醫治未病，中醫治已病，下醫治末病。」在「預防重於治療」的定律下，平日注重身體的警訊，適時地調養，就成了健康投資的關鍵第一步。廖風德和馬兆駿的驟逝，雖都是措手不及的意外，卻也是可以「預防」的悲劇。因此，在廖風德事件後，行政院長劉兆玄就當下決定要求所有閣員在最短時間內安排健檢，並成立「行政院首長健康顧問小組」，提供閣員健康諮詢。
除了政府閣員，其實許多企業界人士更已掀起了「健康投資」的概念。以四十歲的羅秀娟為例，先生陳明欽是苗栗知名溫泉旅館「泰安觀止」的創辦人之一，而愛美的她，則是瘦身機構「媚登峰」十多年老會員，是典型的貴婦，但三年前的一場變故，讓她體會到「健康才是人生最值得投資的事」。
從土地開發、觀光旅館業起家的陳明欽，事業早已遍布兩岸，這樣優渥的條件，讓貌美且愛美的太太羅秀娟在美容瘦身投注不少心力。但三年前某一天，陳明欽忽然感到身體不適，容易疲累，原本以為一場小感冒，前往醫院求醫，孰料，一經抽血檢查才發現，肝功能指數居然嚴重異常，隨時有爆發猛爆性肝炎的危機，足以致命。這讓羅秀娟嚇壞了，於是強迫先生放下正在洽談的上億元生意，趕緊住院治療，才沒讓悲劇發生。
從此之後，羅秀娟不僅要先生每三個月都須定期抽血檢查，每年則為父母親、先生和自己買了一次十五萬元的健檢套餐，一家人合計每年花上百萬元做健檢，許多朋友都笑她矯枉過正，但她卻意志堅定地說：「我再有錢、再美，一旦健康沒了，什麼也帶不走！」「因此，用一百萬元買健康，划得來！」
正因為健檢風行草偃，台灣不僅是全球健檢市場發展最迅速的國家之一，也是技術、設備最先進、普及的國度。以目前來看，全台每年約有三百萬人接受健檢，光以自費健檢來說，就高達三十萬人，若以每人平均兩萬元花費，市場就高達六十億元，而每年還以兩成的速度成長。
在「健檢熱」的席捲下，根據調查結果發現，仍有八成的民眾沒定期做健檢，對於健檢認知不足，甚至持有錯誤的觀念。對此，《今周刊》特別走訪國內各大健檢中心，尋訪健檢名醫，一窺健檢市場的真貌，並試圖建立正確的健檢觀，理出正確且聰明的「健康投資術」...
布局金融股「錯殺行情」
( 2008/07/23 )股在歷經二千多點的修正後，底部呼之欲出，儘管仍有零星利空出現，但在不斷測試後，已蘊釀一波反彈行情。跌深的金融、電子、散裝航運，以及半年報數字亮麗的公司將是優先投資的方向，至於營建、資產和部分傳產股，則應趁反彈減碼。
隨著美國股市回穩，全球股市也跟著觸底回升，究竟這波反彈要如何看待，《今周刊》特定邀請瑞展產研董事長陳忠瑞，以及元富投顧董事長兼總經理劉坤錫，為未來的台股行情走勢，提供寶貴的看法。
陳忠瑞：底部將多次打底才能確立
美國受到房市衰退及信用危機雙重因素打擊，出現自二○○○年網路經濟泡沫化以來，最大幅度的經濟衰退，截至目前仍未有好轉跡象。
構成這波景氣衰退的原因，由次貸蔓延至二房的房貸問題，無疑是最大元凶。由於「二房」本質上屬於半官方機構，終於引來美國政府介入，準備全力滅火。
儘管美國當局已經使出渾身解數救市，但依照過去五十年的景氣循環計算，經濟一旦走下坡，平均得花上四至六季才能重新振作。若自去年第四季起算，美國經濟的復甦時間，最快也要等到明年第一季；因此想脫離景氣黑暗期，恐怕還要再忍耐一段時間。
至於在中國方面，由於熱錢持續湧入，通膨壓力仍相當龐大，為了控制物價不至於失控，目前官方仍維持相對較緊縮的貨幣政策。
回顧以往經驗，在過去十二次奧運會中，有八次負責主辦的國家後來景氣轉而向下，中國會不會步上這八國衰退後塵，在股、房市皆出現明顯回檔的此刻，更值得密切注意。
除了美國經濟牽動全球股市走勢外，台股後市也和國內的經濟基本面息息相關。雖然今年主計處預估的經濟成長率約為四．八％，但想達成這樣的目標，前提是「每天三千名陸客來台觀光」以及「內需建設逐步擴大」，方能有如此表現。然而政策方案由宣布到落實，往往會產生一段時間差距，因此今年的經濟成長是否能順利達陣，尚存有疑慮。
再對照歷來的景氣對策信號，五月分的公布數據不僅是連續七個月下修，而且已亮出代表接近衰退的黃藍燈，製造業銷售及工業生產指數大減，顯示國內經濟確實降溫；若以歷史經驗研判，景氣可能還有二、三個月才到底部。
如同美國的高通膨、高失業率和低經濟成長使美股難以在高點獲得有力支撐，台股近來的修正行情，其實只是反映大環境低迷的事實。
而台股自去年震盪至今經過三波高點，技術線的頭部才出現，未來景氣出現Ｕ型反轉後，指數可能也將多次打底，底部區域才能被確立。
籌碼逐漸穩定半年報決定台股走向
事實上，加權指數自去年接近萬點的高點修正至今，已經過了約九個月時間，大盤在跌破七千點後，就開始進入中線的超跌範圍，價值隱然浮現。以目前台股約兩倍的股價淨值比（Ｐ╱Ｂ）來看，距離九一一事件時的一．五倍歷史低點，只剩下一五％左右的差距，下檔空間已經十分有限。
此外，象徵散戶動向的融資餘額大幅減少，目前融資餘額降到二千八百億元以下，籌碼逐漸穩定，加上股價接近歷史低點，投資人對台股後市展望，實沒有必要一路看壞。
未來台股想要破繭而出，首先得通過迎面而來的半年報考驗。上半年獲利數字即將出爐，公司營運的好壞馬上見真章，若獲利不佳的公司數量較預期更多，仍在盤整階段的台股恐怕也將受到波及。
由於景氣反轉，部分營運體質本就不良的公司，很可能因為撐不過寒冬而倒地，先前爆發財務危機的仕欽、歌林等公司正是其中代表；後續會不會有其他地雷爆發，讓市場信心產生危機，是另一個觀察指標。
再者，若目前困擾全球的高油價能夠逐步降溫，不再漲過一百五十美元天價，則今年通膨壓力最大的時期，可能就會在第三季告一個段落，隨著油價回檔，全球金融市場也終於能喘一口氣。
釐清盤勢走向後，再觀察各台股產業，可發現今年以來較為強勢的傳產股，在歷經不小的漲幅後，多半來到歷史的高檔區，股價想要再向上突破，難度不小。
而原本獨領風騷、市值占大盤比重近半的電子股，股價近來經過一番慘烈修正，遭到腰斬的個股比比皆是，因此以現階段價位來看，電子股的投資價值不言而喻。
傳產類股後勢散裝航運仍精采可期
在傳產股中，明年惟有散裝航運業的業績可望維持高檔。位居產業最上游的台塑石化，則因為握有煉油的獨占利益，業績也能持續發光，其他則是因為股價已充分反映，不易再有表現。未來若油價回檔趨勢確立，塑化類股等原物料族群的表現，則須視個別公司的轉嫁能力而定。
而電子大軍裡最具代表性者，應為ＮＢ上下游產業，相關產品的需求仍然持續成長，不論是上游毛利率較佳的電池、零組件廠商，或是下游製造代工業者，對於產業的未來發展性都相對看好。
另一方面，受惠於家用遊戲機的出貨量不斷攀升，遊戲機周邊零件，及關鍵的遊戲控制ＩＣ業者，可望雨露均霑，也分到一杯羹，算是在電子業今年的淒風苦雨中，少數仍能逆勢挺立的族群。
至於被二房危機拖下水的金融股，也是投資人可乘機撿便宜的類股之一。
由於被次貸風暴及二房債券問題先後困擾，不少金融股在這波跌勢中被大舉出清，股價更被摜壓至起漲點，災情頗為慘重；但部分未捲入二房危機的金融股，也同樣遭到錯殺，因此投資人可針對這些超跌的金融族群分批布局...
樓市拉警報 香港房地產經紀人事大凍結 或掀裁員潮
鉅亨網查淑妝‧台北綜合報導2008 / 07 / 24 星期四 09:15 寄給朋友 友善列印
踏入 7月份，香港樓市回軟，一、二手交投直線下挫，依靠佣金收入為主的地產代理生計受到大考驗，悄悄掀起了裁員潮。業內人士指出，由於預料今年第 3季樓市表現較差，會密切注意市況，不排除中小型房仲經紀商會有裁員現象。美聯、港置及利嘉閣均表示，現階段已凍結人事。 《香港文匯報》報導，由於樓市回軟，香港房仲業悄悄掀起了一股裁員和整頓風，香港最大地產代理中原地產近日向 700位於過去半年生意額未達最低標準的營業員發出警告信，即平均每人每月要爭取做到 6.8萬港元生意，提醒他們及其主管要關注，當中 100名員工更是未達最低指標，可能要被裁掉。
中原地產執行董事陳永傑昨(23)日強調，這只是公司一向的例行公事，因為今年上半年市況比較差，因而令發警告信的數目較多，但並非要掀起裁員潮。目前中原地產於香港共有約 240間分行，共僱用約3000名員工。
利嘉閣董事總經理廖偉強指出，公司每 1季都會向不達標同事發出警告信，實行「先禮後兵」，其公司最低指標為半年內平均每月要爭取到 1.5萬港元生意額，他坦言，7月市況為今年來最差，交投較上月下跌30%，目前會採用自然流失、汰弱留強的做法。
利嘉閣於 7月已裁減20名業績未能達最低指標的地產代理，不過，與2005年樓市上一個低潮期要即時裁走300人計，如今市況未算那麼壞。
美聯集團執行董事兼集團行政總裁陳坤興指出，美聯於每個月都會向未達最低指標的員工檢討，其公司最低指標平均每月要爭取到6-8萬港元，若部分細銀碼地區的平均每月生意額要達5萬港元。
他指出，過去 1年集團都審慎擴充，租金太高的分行都不會租用，人手增加約7%，加上今年上半年三大新盤，包括首都、御龍山及半山壹號促成的交易均比同行高，現時有足夠子彈應付逆市，上半年亦增開了3至5間分行。
但他坦言，集團會不時檢討市況，現階段會凍結招請人手，然而美聯集團未有任何收縮計劃，目前美聯物業及美聯工商舖的本地前線員工數目約3000人，分行233間。
香港置業行政總裁胡日發指出，集團無警告信行動，但會向未達標者會面，看其是否有做代理的潛質來定會否繼續聘用。他直言，樓市成交下降，無疑會影響代理收入，惟目前成交跌幅僅維持在10-20%之間的水平，幅度屬正常的調整，並不是大幅下滑，因此該行對市況抱審慎樂觀態度，加上以香港置業目前的規模而言，未有裁員的壓力及必要，但會凍結人手。
雷曼兄弟報告預計中國房價還會進一步下跌
世華財訊提供2008 / 07 / 24 星期四 11:58 寄給朋友 友善列印 雷曼兄弟發佈報告稱，中國樓市大幅降溫跡象非常普遍，預計房價還會進一步下降。 據每日經濟新聞7月24日報導，“中國樓市大幅降溫跡象非常普遍”，雷曼兄弟23日在報告中對目前樓市做出判斷，並預計房價還會進一步下降。
雷曼兄弟中國區進階經濟學家孫明春指出，雖然房地產同比價格依然上漲，但在許多城市，樓市價格已經從近期價格峰值大幅回落。他判斷，未來幾個月，考慮到信貸控制依然偏緊，消費者信心和企業信心進一步下滑，樓市還有下跌的空間。
孫明春指出，在近期一項樓市調查中發現，36個被調查城市中，有21個城市的房價在5月降溫，價格跌幅最大的是貴陽，已比峰值下降了25.9%。從緊的信貸控制，已經給開發商製造了巨大的流動性壓力，促使他們以更便宜的價格出售房產。
安信證券房地產業分析師李孔逸也表示，全國房地產市場降溫的趨勢是比較顯見的，房地產市場還在調整，不可能這麼快到底，因此還有下降的趨勢，預計這一輪調整至少將持續到年底，短期內看不到增長的跡象。 談到這一輪調整的原因，李孔逸認為，主要原因是房價前期漲幅過大，超出了市場的承受預期，因此出現調整是必然，而各地區調整幅度也會有差異。
(徐志嬌 編輯)
雷曼兄弟中國區進階經濟學家孫明春指出，雖然房地產同比價格依然上漲，但在許多城市，樓市價格已經從近期價格峰值大幅回落。他判斷，未來幾個月，考慮到信貸控制依然偏緊，消費者信心和企業信心進一步下滑，樓市還有下跌的空間。
孫明春指出，在近期一項樓市調查中發現，36個被調查城市中，有21個城市的房價在5月降溫，價格跌幅最大的是貴陽，已比峰值下降了25.9%。從緊的信貸控制，已經給開發商製造了巨大的流動性壓力，促使他們以更便宜的價格出售房產。
安信證券房地產業分析師李孔逸也表示，全國房地產市場降溫的趨勢是比較顯見的，房地產市場還在調整，不可能這麼快到底，因此還有下降的趨勢，預計這一輪調整至少將持續到年底，短期內看不到增長的跡象。 談到這一輪調整的原因，李孔逸認為，主要原因是房價前期漲幅過大，超出了市場的承受預期，因此出現調整是必然，而各地區調整幅度也會有差異。
(徐志嬌 編輯)
Singapore is 13th most expensive city
Posted on July 24, 2008 by lushhomeonline
It is also the 5th costliest in Asia for expats: Mercer survey
SINGAPORE is the world’s 13th most expensive city for expatriates, and the fifth most expensive in Asia.
According to Mercer’s Worldwide Cost of Living Survey 2008, Singapore ranks above Sydney (15th), New York (22nd) and Shanghai (24th).
Mercer’s survey, which covers 143 cities on six continents, measures the comparative cost of more than 200 items in each location, including housing, transport, food, clothing, household goods and entertainment.
For instance, a fast-food hamburger meal costs US$4.50 in Singapore, US$3.18 in Hong Kong and US$5.97 in Tokyo.
Mercer’s managing director (Asean) Su-Yen Wong said: ‘Singapore’s rise in the rankings is partly due to the appreciation of the Singapore dollar against the US dollar.’ At the same time, Singapore’s strength as a regional hub and its ‘high quality of living’ have attracted talent from overseas. ‘Consequently, this has increased demand for items such as housing, food and transport.’
Rents have increased significantly here. According to Mercer, a ‘luxury’ two-bedroom unfurnished apartment now costs US$3,539.77 a month, an increase of about 20 per cent from US$2,946.09 in 2007.
But ‘luxury’ rent here is lower than in Hong Kong at US$6,411.89 a month and Tokyo at US$5,128.84.
On the upside, Singapore’s annual ranking has not increased as rapidly as before. Its 13th place this year is only a notch up from its 14th last year. In 2006 it ranked 17th - way up from 2005 when it was 34th.
In the latest survey, Moscow has been ranked the world’s most expensive city for expatriates - for a third straight year. London dropped one place to third.
Yvonne Traber, a principal and research manager at Mercer, said: ‘Although the traditionally expensive cities of Western Europe and Asia still feature in the Top 20, cities in Eastern Europe, Brazil and India are creeping up the list. Conversely, some locations such as Stockholm and New York now appear less costly by comparison.’
With New York as the base city at 100 points, Moscow scored 142.4 and is close to three times costlier than Asunción in Paraguay, the least expensive city with a score of 52.5.
Mercer noted that contrary to a trend last year, the gap between the world’s most and least expensive cities now seems to be widening.
In its report, it says: ‘Our research confirms the global trend in price increases for certain food items and petrol, though the rise is not consistent in all locations. This is partly balanced by decreasing prices for certain commodities, such as electronic and electrical goods. We attribute this to cheaper imports from developing countries, especially China, and to advances in technology.’
Source : Business Times - 24 Jul 2008
Thousands throng showflats at Park Central@AMK
Posted on July 23, 2008 by lushhomeonline
Some 1,200 home hunters thronged showflats at Park Central@AMK on the first day of its launch on Wednesday.
Of these, 130 have already applied for the flats, which will be ready in 2011.
The project is Singapore’s third condominium-style public housing, and a queue to view the showflats started forming at 5am.
All 578 units at Park Central@AMK come with fittings like built-in wardrobes, air-conditioners and parquet flooring.
The four 30-storey blocks will house four- and four-room units priced between S$433,000 and S$689,000 or about S$500 per square foot.
Real estate agents said the prices are comparable to those for resale public housing in the neighbourhood.
These are about S$400,000 for a four-room flat and up to S$550,000 for a five-room unit.
Despite a slight cooling off in the property sector, its developer expects a good take-up rate.
Jackson Yap, CEO, United Engineers Limited, said, “This is the mass market, the demand is always there. The interest rate in Singapore is still relatively low so to speak, and the other one is cash flow. If you do your sums right, the net cash flow for buying these units are not that high if you include your CPF contributions.”
Park Central@AMK is the third project under the Housing Board’s ‘Design, Build and Sell Scheme’, where the private sector is involved in the building and marketing of public housing.
While prices at Park Central@AMK are nearly 10 per cent lower than the previous condo-style development - City View@Boon Keng - it is still too much for some, especially younger couples who have just joined the workforce.
Kevin Kwan said, “Maybe you have to forfeit your car, not get it so fast; and for daily expenses, you have to be more meticulous.”
Others are worried about falling value of their asset and tough times ahead.
Lean Guan Hock said, “Now due to the soaring oil prices, I think everybody must be very concerned.”
Even though many have put in an application for the flats, not all will end up buying one.
Some applicants said their final purchase decision will depend on how the global economy and the property market perform in the next few months.
Applications must be submitted by August 5, and sales will be done via a balloting system. - CNA/ms
Source : Channel NewsAsia - 23 Jul 2008
PropNex to fire non-performing agents this week
Posted on July 23, 2008 by lushhomeonline One of Singapore’s biggest real estate agencies, PropNex Realty, is firing more than one-third of its agents.
According to its CEO, the move is aimed at cleaning up the profession.
PropNex is firing those who have been with them for over a year, but have yet to submit a single transaction. About 2,800 agents currently on its list will be affected.
The agents were first given a choice to remain as PropNex agents by signing up for Professional Indemnity Insurance as well as a refresher course.
This group is seen as the riskiest for consumers as they may not be as updated on industry changes. There is also the possibility that this group may not be declaring their transactions, which poses a problem when consumers consult the agencies and find that there are no records of the deal.
Said Mohamed Ismail, CEO of Propex Realty: “Consumers are not protected in terms of professional standards provided by agent. There’s a lot of concern and a call for industry to be regulated. This did not happen in the last couple of years, so now the initiative should be for big players to self-regulate and move forward.”
A lack of direct and stiff regulation for housing agents has allowed the existence of what some industry players call “cowboy” agents who profit by flouting rules, and leaving customers and their agencies to deal with lapses.
So industry players said it is time the agencies do something about it.
“It would be forward-looking for any agency (to) ensure that their agents are properly trained, … professional, ethical and exercise some kind of control,” said Low Swee Kim, Vice President at the Institute of Estate Agents.
The industry first tried to regulate agents with a qualification exam called the Common Examination for House Agents. But since it was not mandatory, it did not have the desired impact of setting a minimun standard for housing agents.
Currently, only a multiple choice exam is required.
The Institute of Estate Agents (IEA) has also been pushing for second tier licensing, but to no avail. Currently, only agencies are licensed.
A housing agent database pioneered by the IEA has also fallen short so far, because not all real estate agents have opted in.
Industry players compare this situation to that of the insurance industry, where agents are guided by tough regulations by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
It is estimated that only one third of real estate agents are properly qualified.
“There’s no educational barrier to entry, so anyone can join the industry. Typically, training is only provided if the agent joins a relatively big company where there is some structure in place,” said Eugene Lim, Associate Director of ERA Asia Pacific.
As a major realty agency, ERA said it has training systems in place for its agents.
PropNex’s CEO said this is just the start of an entire overhaul.
Said Ismail: “At the moment, PropNex is at the drawing board working out some policies and programme. If the authorities are not prepared to regulate the industry, some of the big players (like) ourselves, we would like to self-regulate. We have to just move and take the lead role to make a difference. And doing that, I think (others) will follow.
“We are in the planning stage and (soon),… we should be able to reveal some of our new policies and procedures that will put a check on all our agents, in terms of their conduct and responsibility.”
PropNex is also looking at creating avenues to give redress to consumers who have problems with their agents. - CNA /ls
Source : Channel NewsAsia - 23 Jul 2008
According to its CEO, the move is aimed at cleaning up the profession.
PropNex is firing those who have been with them for over a year, but have yet to submit a single transaction. About 2,800 agents currently on its list will be affected.
The agents were first given a choice to remain as PropNex agents by signing up for Professional Indemnity Insurance as well as a refresher course.
This group is seen as the riskiest for consumers as they may not be as updated on industry changes. There is also the possibility that this group may not be declaring their transactions, which poses a problem when consumers consult the agencies and find that there are no records of the deal.
Said Mohamed Ismail, CEO of Propex Realty: “Consumers are not protected in terms of professional standards provided by agent. There’s a lot of concern and a call for industry to be regulated. This did not happen in the last couple of years, so now the initiative should be for big players to self-regulate and move forward.”
A lack of direct and stiff regulation for housing agents has allowed the existence of what some industry players call “cowboy” agents who profit by flouting rules, and leaving customers and their agencies to deal with lapses.
So industry players said it is time the agencies do something about it.
“It would be forward-looking for any agency (to) ensure that their agents are properly trained, … professional, ethical and exercise some kind of control,” said Low Swee Kim, Vice President at the Institute of Estate Agents.
The industry first tried to regulate agents with a qualification exam called the Common Examination for House Agents. But since it was not mandatory, it did not have the desired impact of setting a minimun standard for housing agents.
Currently, only a multiple choice exam is required.
The Institute of Estate Agents (IEA) has also been pushing for second tier licensing, but to no avail. Currently, only agencies are licensed.
A housing agent database pioneered by the IEA has also fallen short so far, because not all real estate agents have opted in.
Industry players compare this situation to that of the insurance industry, where agents are guided by tough regulations by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
It is estimated that only one third of real estate agents are properly qualified.
“There’s no educational barrier to entry, so anyone can join the industry. Typically, training is only provided if the agent joins a relatively big company where there is some structure in place,” said Eugene Lim, Associate Director of ERA Asia Pacific.
As a major realty agency, ERA said it has training systems in place for its agents.
PropNex’s CEO said this is just the start of an entire overhaul.
Said Ismail: “At the moment, PropNex is at the drawing board working out some policies and programme. If the authorities are not prepared to regulate the industry, some of the big players (like) ourselves, we would like to self-regulate. We have to just move and take the lead role to make a difference. And doing that, I think (others) will follow.
“We are in the planning stage and (soon),… we should be able to reveal some of our new policies and procedures that will put a check on all our agents, in terms of their conduct and responsibility.”
PropNex is also looking at creating avenues to give redress to consumers who have problems with their agents. - CNA /ls
Source : Channel NewsAsia - 23 Jul 2008
PropNex to fire non-performing agents this week
Posted on July 23, 2008 by lushhomeonline
One of Singapore’s biggest real estate agencies, PropNex Realty, is firing more than one-third of its agents.
According to its CEO, the move is aimed at cleaning up the profession.
PropNex is firing those who have been with them for over a year, but have yet to submit a single transaction. About 2,800 agents currently on its list will be affected.
The agents were first given a choice to remain as PropNex agents by signing up for Professional Indemnity Insurance as well as a refresher course.
This group is seen as the riskiest for consumers as they may not be as updated on industry changes. There is also the possibility that this group may not be declaring their transactions, which poses a problem when consumers consult the agencies and find that there are no records of the deal.
Said Mohamed Ismail, CEO of Propex Realty: “Consumers are not protected in terms of professional standards provided by agent. There’s a lot of concern and a call for industry to be regulated. This did not happen in the last couple of years, so now the initiative should be for big players to self-regulate and move forward.”
A lack of direct and stiff regulation for housing agents has allowed the existence of what some industry players call “cowboy” agents who profit by flouting rules, and leaving customers and their agencies to deal with lapses.
So industry players said it is time the agencies do something about it.
“It would be forward-looking for any agency (to) ensure that their agents are properly trained, … professional, ethical and exercise some kind of control,” said Low Swee Kim, Vice President at the Institute of Estate Agents.
The industry first tried to regulate agents with a qualification exam called the Common Examination for House Agents. But since it was not mandatory, it did not have the desired impact of setting a minimun standard for housing agents.
Currently, only a multiple choice exam is required.
The Institute of Estate Agents (IEA) has also been pushing for second tier licensing, but to no avail. Currently, only agencies are licensed.
A housing agent database pioneered by the IEA has also fallen short so far, because not all real estate agents have opted in.
Industry players compare this situation to that of the insurance industry, where agents are guided by tough regulations by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
It is estimated that only one third of real estate agents are properly qualified.
“There’s no educational barrier to entry, so anyone can join the industry. Typically, training is only provided if the agent joins a relatively big company where there is some structure in place,” said Eugene Lim, Associate Director of ERA Asia Pacific.
As a major realty agency, ERA said it has training systems in place for its agents.
PropNex’s CEO said this is just the start of an entire overhaul.
Said Ismail: “At the moment, PropNex is at the drawing board working out some policies and programme. If the authorities are not prepared to regulate the industry, some of the big players (like) ourselves, we would like to self-regulate. We have to just move and take the lead role to make a difference. And doing that, I think (others) will follow.
“We are in the planning stage and (soon),… we should be able to reveal some of our new policies and procedures that will put a check on all our agents, in terms of their conduct and responsibility.”
PropNex is also looking at creating avenues to give redress to consumers who have problems with their agents. - CNA /ls
Source : Channel NewsAsia - 23 Jul 2008
One of Singapore’s biggest real estate agencies, PropNex Realty, is firing more than one-third of its agents.
According to its CEO, the move is aimed at cleaning up the profession.
PropNex is firing those who have been with them for over a year, but have yet to submit a single transaction. About 2,800 agents currently on its list will be affected.
The agents were first given a choice to remain as PropNex agents by signing up for Professional Indemnity Insurance as well as a refresher course.
This group is seen as the riskiest for consumers as they may not be as updated on industry changes. There is also the possibility that this group may not be declaring their transactions, which poses a problem when consumers consult the agencies and find that there are no records of the deal.
Said Mohamed Ismail, CEO of Propex Realty: “Consumers are not protected in terms of professional standards provided by agent. There’s a lot of concern and a call for industry to be regulated. This did not happen in the last couple of years, so now the initiative should be for big players to self-regulate and move forward.”
A lack of direct and stiff regulation for housing agents has allowed the existence of what some industry players call “cowboy” agents who profit by flouting rules, and leaving customers and their agencies to deal with lapses.
So industry players said it is time the agencies do something about it.
“It would be forward-looking for any agency (to) ensure that their agents are properly trained, … professional, ethical and exercise some kind of control,” said Low Swee Kim, Vice President at the Institute of Estate Agents.
The industry first tried to regulate agents with a qualification exam called the Common Examination for House Agents. But since it was not mandatory, it did not have the desired impact of setting a minimun standard for housing agents.
Currently, only a multiple choice exam is required.
The Institute of Estate Agents (IEA) has also been pushing for second tier licensing, but to no avail. Currently, only agencies are licensed.
A housing agent database pioneered by the IEA has also fallen short so far, because not all real estate agents have opted in.
Industry players compare this situation to that of the insurance industry, where agents are guided by tough regulations by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
It is estimated that only one third of real estate agents are properly qualified.
“There’s no educational barrier to entry, so anyone can join the industry. Typically, training is only provided if the agent joins a relatively big company where there is some structure in place,” said Eugene Lim, Associate Director of ERA Asia Pacific.
As a major realty agency, ERA said it has training systems in place for its agents.
PropNex’s CEO said this is just the start of an entire overhaul.
Said Ismail: “At the moment, PropNex is at the drawing board working out some policies and programme. If the authorities are not prepared to regulate the industry, some of the big players (like) ourselves, we would like to self-regulate. We have to just move and take the lead role to make a difference. And doing that, I think (others) will follow.
“We are in the planning stage and (soon),… we should be able to reveal some of our new policies and procedures that will put a check on all our agents, in terms of their conduct and responsibility.”
PropNex is also looking at creating avenues to give redress to consumers who have problems with their agents. - CNA /ls
Source : Channel NewsAsia - 23 Jul 2008
武吉知马一地段再集体求售 价格比去年低四成
（2008-07-24） ● 龚慧婷 集体出售热开始“冷却”，业主也慢慢降低对价格的要求。
继上个月四幅地段降价求售后，武吉知马路一幅集体出售地段，昨天也以比去年12月推出时低了36至40％的价格求售。
这回推出的是罗彬通道(Robin Drive)1号和罗彬阁(Robin Court)，前者是独立式洋房，后者是拥有15个单位的无电梯低层公寓(walk-up apartment)。
负责销售项目的齐乐行(Credo)执行董事杨春华指出，罗彬阁在去年10月的集体出售法令修改前，就已得到80％的业主同意出售，然而，有鉴于目前房地产的市场情绪谨慎，业主已变得比较实际，开始签署降低保留价(reserve price)的集体出售协议。
因此，与去年12月份首次推出市场集体求售时的容积率每平方英尺1500至1600元要价相比，这一回的地皮要价是容积率每平方英尺964元至996元之间。
杨春华说，这两幅地段的总地皮面积是4万零518平方英尺，预示价格是5800万至6000万元之间。若打算将1.4的容积率增加到1.54，就得支付200万元的发展费（新尺价已加入发展费）。
可建30单位
豪华私人住宅
她指出，这幅中型的地皮上，可建造拥有30个单位的豪华私人住宅（每个单位2000平方英尺），靠近不久前刚宣布将建造的史蒂芬（Stevens)地铁站。有兴趣的买家可在8月14日之前出价。
在上个月初，四幅曾在去年10月推出集体求售的地段再度登场，但业主的要价已平均下滑了30至40％。这四幅地段分别是实里达花园(Seletar Garden)、嘉文纳大厦(Cavenagh Gardens)、诺维那山(Novena Hill)和芽笼的Hong Thye House。 杨春华指出，集体出售的市场淡静，发展商虽然还在买地，但比较倾向于买“官地”，因为交易比较快。市场人士大多数还保持着观望、等待的态度。
然而，尽管市场淡静，现由周玉琴掌舵的海峡商行，依然选择在这个时候，推出花拉路的雅乐居(Gallop Gables)其中两栋已有十多年屋龄的建筑，测试市场的“温度”。
原发展商海峡商行昨天是通过莱坊，邀请有兴趣的买家出价(EOI)。
莱坊执行董事符传柄受询时指出，由于有几家私人银行集团／私募基金，对这两栋私人公寓的收租潜能感兴趣，因此海峡商行决定邀买家为这两栋它目前正在收租的公寓出价。
莱坊透露，两栋公寓的要价是1亿6200万元左右，即每平方英尺1500元，相等于今年初海峡商行个别脱售的两个单位的尺价。符传柄说，这其实还比去年能取得的1400多元尺价稍高。
建于1997年的雅乐居，富有欧洲建筑风味，占地25万2663平方英尺，共有七栋低层楼的建筑，单位总数是140个单位。发展商在项目建成后逐步将五栋建筑的单位慢慢脱手，剩下的这两栋建筑（38个单位）用来收取租金。
符传柄说，由于拥有现成的租户，每平方英尺的月租是5元左右，租金回报是3.5％，因此，他认为，对私募基金来说，这是拥有资金增长潜能的投资。截止日期是9月9日。
继上个月四幅地段降价求售后，武吉知马路一幅集体出售地段，昨天也以比去年12月推出时低了36至40％的价格求售。
这回推出的是罗彬通道(Robin Drive)1号和罗彬阁(Robin Court)，前者是独立式洋房，后者是拥有15个单位的无电梯低层公寓(walk-up apartment)。
负责销售项目的齐乐行(Credo)执行董事杨春华指出，罗彬阁在去年10月的集体出售法令修改前，就已得到80％的业主同意出售，然而，有鉴于目前房地产的市场情绪谨慎，业主已变得比较实际，开始签署降低保留价(reserve price)的集体出售协议。
因此，与去年12月份首次推出市场集体求售时的容积率每平方英尺1500至1600元要价相比，这一回的地皮要价是容积率每平方英尺964元至996元之间。
杨春华说，这两幅地段的总地皮面积是4万零518平方英尺，预示价格是5800万至6000万元之间。若打算将1.4的容积率增加到1.54，就得支付200万元的发展费（新尺价已加入发展费）。
可建30单位
豪华私人住宅
她指出，这幅中型的地皮上，可建造拥有30个单位的豪华私人住宅（每个单位2000平方英尺），靠近不久前刚宣布将建造的史蒂芬（Stevens)地铁站。有兴趣的买家可在8月14日之前出价。
在上个月初，四幅曾在去年10月推出集体求售的地段再度登场，但业主的要价已平均下滑了30至40％。这四幅地段分别是实里达花园(Seletar Garden)、嘉文纳大厦(Cavenagh Gardens)、诺维那山(Novena Hill)和芽笼的Hong Thye House。 杨春华指出，集体出售的市场淡静，发展商虽然还在买地，但比较倾向于买“官地”，因为交易比较快。市场人士大多数还保持着观望、等待的态度。
然而，尽管市场淡静，现由周玉琴掌舵的海峡商行，依然选择在这个时候，推出花拉路的雅乐居(Gallop Gables)其中两栋已有十多年屋龄的建筑，测试市场的“温度”。
原发展商海峡商行昨天是通过莱坊，邀请有兴趣的买家出价(EOI)。
莱坊执行董事符传柄受询时指出，由于有几家私人银行集团／私募基金，对这两栋私人公寓的收租潜能感兴趣，因此海峡商行决定邀买家为这两栋它目前正在收租的公寓出价。
莱坊透露，两栋公寓的要价是1亿6200万元左右，即每平方英尺1500元，相等于今年初海峡商行个别脱售的两个单位的尺价。符传柄说，这其实还比去年能取得的1400多元尺价稍高。
建于1997年的雅乐居，富有欧洲建筑风味，占地25万2663平方英尺，共有七栋低层楼的建筑，单位总数是140个单位。发展商在项目建成后逐步将五栋建筑的单位慢慢脱手，剩下的这两栋建筑（38个单位）用来收取租金。
符传柄说，由于拥有现成的租户，每平方英尺的月租是5元左右，租金回报是3.5％，因此，他认为，对私募基金来说，这是拥有资金增长潜能的投资。截止日期是9月9日。
等待购屋 宏茂桥私人组屋 3000人参观示范单位 首两小时130人登记抽签选购
（2008-07-24） ● 吴汉钧邓智炜（摄）
昨天上午的一场大雨阻止不了宏茂桥私人组屋Park Central@AMK的潜在买家到示范单位参观及了解详情。
将建在宏茂桥52街的Park Central是建屋局第三个交由私人发展商设计、兴建和销售的组屋项目。联合工程（United Engineers）是发展商。
由4座30层组屋组成的Park Central@AMK，共有578个单位，其中172个四房式、406个五房式，四房式售价40万元至50万元；五房式60万元至69万元，平均每平方英尺490元至500元。
Park Central昨天上午10时发售，但由于不是周末，人潮不比文庆路私人组屋City View@Boon Keng发售日的多。不过，它在发售后两个小时吸引1200人参观，其中130人登记抽签选购。到了傍晚6时，参观者已有3000人。但发展商因登记系统故障无法提供最新人数资料。
受访公众虽对这个私人组屋地点表示赞赏，但也有人认为售价偏高。市场经理连源福说，他曾在宏茂桥住了很多年，后来搬到三巴旺，得知宏茂桥将建私人组屋，兴起搬回宏茂桥的念头。
参观者认为
地点方便售价偏高
他说：“主要是方便，我们熟悉这个地方。这个项目还不错，就是售价偏高。如果售价能降到每平方英尺400元会比较好。毕竟是组屋，不是私人公寓。”
话虽如此，连源福还是登记了名字，希望能被抽中以选购一个单位。 新跃大学学生关自强希望能买一间组屋，以和女友结婚。他说：“这里靠近我父母，又是已完全发展组屋区，各种设施都很方便，地点非常有吸引力。问题是价格相当高，要五六十万。不过，这是一种新的居住环境，设计很像公寓。”
公司执行员郑永强也因为父母住宏茂桥，有意购买而前去参观示范单位。他觉得售价偏高，需要谨慎考虑，才能决定是否买私人组屋或预购组屋（BTO）。
他说：“负担房子贷款是影响未来生活素质的主要因素，要过得轻松，还是辛苦一点，就是看买什么样的房子。虽然说薪水会增加，但其他生活成本也会上涨，到头来还是一样的。”
联合工程董事经理兼执行总裁叶吉祥受访时说，他不担心目前房地产市场出现不稳定情绪，因为公共住屋是完全不同的市场，组屋面向大众化市场，组屋转售价每个季度都上涨，显示组屋需求强劲。
他说：“我们制订正确的价位，稍微比转售组屋高，比上个私人组屋项目低。我们的设计美观，给予相当完善的装修，几乎是可以直接搬进去住，所以可以吸引到买家。”
建屋局网站提供的转售价数据显示，从今年4月至7月，屋龄五六年的宏茂桥52街四房式组屋转售价介于42万元至49万元，有28年屋龄的五房式组屋转售价约49万元。
Park Central的订购登记下月5日截止，示范单位每天上午10时开放至傍晚6时，公众可拨64518002了解详情。
昨天上午的一场大雨阻止不了宏茂桥私人组屋Park Central@AMK的潜在买家到示范单位参观及了解详情。
将建在宏茂桥52街的Park Central是建屋局第三个交由私人发展商设计、兴建和销售的组屋项目。联合工程（United Engineers）是发展商。
由4座30层组屋组成的Park Central@AMK，共有578个单位，其中172个四房式、406个五房式，四房式售价40万元至50万元；五房式60万元至69万元，平均每平方英尺490元至500元。
Park Central昨天上午10时发售，但由于不是周末，人潮不比文庆路私人组屋City View@Boon Keng发售日的多。不过，它在发售后两个小时吸引1200人参观，其中130人登记抽签选购。到了傍晚6时，参观者已有3000人。但发展商因登记系统故障无法提供最新人数资料。
受访公众虽对这个私人组屋地点表示赞赏，但也有人认为售价偏高。市场经理连源福说，他曾在宏茂桥住了很多年，后来搬到三巴旺，得知宏茂桥将建私人组屋，兴起搬回宏茂桥的念头。
参观者认为
地点方便售价偏高
他说：“主要是方便，我们熟悉这个地方。这个项目还不错，就是售价偏高。如果售价能降到每平方英尺400元会比较好。毕竟是组屋，不是私人公寓。”
话虽如此，连源福还是登记了名字，希望能被抽中以选购一个单位。 新跃大学学生关自强希望能买一间组屋，以和女友结婚。他说：“这里靠近我父母，又是已完全发展组屋区，各种设施都很方便，地点非常有吸引力。问题是价格相当高，要五六十万。不过，这是一种新的居住环境，设计很像公寓。”
公司执行员郑永强也因为父母住宏茂桥，有意购买而前去参观示范单位。他觉得售价偏高，需要谨慎考虑，才能决定是否买私人组屋或预购组屋（BTO）。
他说：“负担房子贷款是影响未来生活素质的主要因素，要过得轻松，还是辛苦一点，就是看买什么样的房子。虽然说薪水会增加，但其他生活成本也会上涨，到头来还是一样的。”
联合工程董事经理兼执行总裁叶吉祥受访时说，他不担心目前房地产市场出现不稳定情绪，因为公共住屋是完全不同的市场，组屋面向大众化市场，组屋转售价每个季度都上涨，显示组屋需求强劲。
他说：“我们制订正确的价位，稍微比转售组屋高，比上个私人组屋项目低。我们的设计美观，给予相当完善的装修，几乎是可以直接搬进去住，所以可以吸引到买家。”
建屋局网站提供的转售价数据显示，从今年4月至7月，屋龄五六年的宏茂桥52街四房式组屋转售价介于42万元至49万元，有28年屋龄的五房式组屋转售价约49万元。
Park Central的订购登记下月5日截止，示范单位每天上午10时开放至傍晚6时，公众可拨64518002了解详情。
连续三个月维持在26年来最高水平 6月通胀率仍居高不下
（2008-07-24） ● 胡渊文 我国6月份的通货膨胀率依然是7.5％，已连续三个月维持在26年来的最高水平，不过这低于经济师的预测。
彭博社和路透社之前进行的调查显示，经济师对6月份通胀率预测的中数是8％。
上半年通胀率7.1％
今年上半年的通胀率则达到了7.1％。与5月份比，反映我国通胀情况的消费价格指数（CPI）6月份下跌了0.3％，经季度调整后，则比5月份上涨0.4％。
由于去年调高消费税的影响会在7月份消失，分析师普遍认为，我国的通胀率已达到了顶峰，预计会在下半年开始有所回落。
花旗集团经济师：
7月通胀率会下降
花旗集团的经济师吉伟正预测，7月份的通胀率会下降到6％至6.5％的水准，到年底则会进一步下降到3.5％至4％。
汇丰银行的经济师万德斯福德(Robert Prior-Wandesforde)指出，6月份的通胀率并没有如预期的高，主要是因为交通和通讯的通胀率从5月份的6％下降到5.1％，这从一定程度上反映了汽油价下跌的初期影响，更大程度上是因为拥车证(COE)价格的下滑。
金融管理局在5月调高对我国今年全年通胀率的预测，认为全年通胀率料将介于5％至6％。万德斯福德认为这个预测面临着巨大的威胁，预计全年通胀率会达到6.5％。 金管局副董事经理许和意前天说，金管局将检讨对全年通胀的预测。金管局将于今天上午举行年报发布会。
金管局今年已允许新元较快的升值，以应付通胀压力。
至于该局接下来可能采取的货币政策，分析师持有不同的看法。一些认为由于通胀率居高不下，增加了金管局让新元升值的压力；一些则认为，通胀率并没有预期的高，因此减轻了金管局缩紧货币政策的压力。
渣打银行经济师柳天成说：“金管局可能会在10月份检讨货币政策时，维持目前的政策。”
需缩紧财政政策
或放宽移民政策
万德斯福德则指出：“外汇政策只能做到这么多，接下来就要靠政府通过缩紧财政政策或放宽移民政策来应对通胀。”
他说，放宽人力市场非常重要，不然第一季的双位数薪金增长，可能会引起工资和物价螺旋式地上涨。
统计局发布的数据显示，6月份通胀率达到7.5％，主要是食品、房屋以及交通与通讯价格的上涨造成。食品价格上涨9.2％，房屋成本上升13.4％，主要因为住宿成本上升以及电力收费上涨。
若不包括住宿成本，6月份的消费价格指数同比涨幅为6.5％。
彭博社和路透社之前进行的调查显示，经济师对6月份通胀率预测的中数是8％。
上半年通胀率7.1％
今年上半年的通胀率则达到了7.1％。与5月份比，反映我国通胀情况的消费价格指数（CPI）6月份下跌了0.3％，经季度调整后，则比5月份上涨0.4％。
由于去年调高消费税的影响会在7月份消失，分析师普遍认为，我国的通胀率已达到了顶峰，预计会在下半年开始有所回落。
花旗集团经济师：
7月通胀率会下降
花旗集团的经济师吉伟正预测，7月份的通胀率会下降到6％至6.5％的水准，到年底则会进一步下降到3.5％至4％。
汇丰银行的经济师万德斯福德(Robert Prior-Wandesforde)指出，6月份的通胀率并没有如预期的高，主要是因为交通和通讯的通胀率从5月份的6％下降到5.1％，这从一定程度上反映了汽油价下跌的初期影响，更大程度上是因为拥车证(COE)价格的下滑。
金融管理局在5月调高对我国今年全年通胀率的预测，认为全年通胀率料将介于5％至6％。万德斯福德认为这个预测面临着巨大的威胁，预计全年通胀率会达到6.5％。 金管局副董事经理许和意前天说，金管局将检讨对全年通胀的预测。金管局将于今天上午举行年报发布会。
金管局今年已允许新元较快的升值，以应付通胀压力。
至于该局接下来可能采取的货币政策，分析师持有不同的看法。一些认为由于通胀率居高不下，增加了金管局让新元升值的压力；一些则认为，通胀率并没有预期的高，因此减轻了金管局缩紧货币政策的压力。
渣打银行经济师柳天成说：“金管局可能会在10月份检讨货币政策时，维持目前的政策。”
需缩紧财政政策
或放宽移民政策
万德斯福德则指出：“外汇政策只能做到这么多，接下来就要靠政府通过缩紧财政政策或放宽移民政策来应对通胀。”
他说，放宽人力市场非常重要，不然第一季的双位数薪金增长，可能会引起工资和物价螺旋式地上涨。
统计局发布的数据显示，6月份通胀率达到7.5％，主要是食品、房屋以及交通与通讯价格的上涨造成。食品价格上涨9.2％，房屋成本上升13.4％，主要因为住宿成本上升以及电力收费上涨。
若不包括住宿成本，6月份的消费价格指数同比涨幅为6.5％。
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
紐約匯市─美財長Paulson發表演說 美元匯價創兩周最大升幅
鉅亨網編譯鍾詠翔‧綜合外電
2008 / 07 / 23 星期三 05:48 寄給朋友 友善列印
美國財長Henry Paulson今天發表演說，且費城聯邦準備銀行總裁表示央行應調升利率，受此激勵，美元兌歐元匯價創逾兩周最大升幅。
交易員表示，美元匯率突破1歐元兌1.59美元關卡後，擴大漲幅，因為該價位聚集許多歐元賣單，並且隨著原油價格回檔，亦激勵美元走升。
墨西哥披索觸及5年高點，經濟學家預估該國央行為抑制通貨膨脹，下月將調升利率。
台北時間23日凌晨4:14，美元匯價上漲0.9%，1歐元可兌換1.5794美元。美元匯率攀高0.7%，1美元兌107.20日元。日元兌歐元匯率小漲0.1%，來到1歐元兌169.26日元。
墨國披索匯價一度揚升0.7%至1美元兌10.0568披索，創2002年10月以來最高價位。Citigroup Inc.分析師預估，墨西哥央行在8月會議將升息1碼，讓基準利率升至8.25%。
Paulson今天在紐約發表演說，他力勸國會通過對「二房」的援助計畫，強調美國金融市場的穩定正走到緊要關頭，並且國際投資人亦正在等待最終結果。同時，Paulson重申，強勢美元真的非常重要。消息傳出後，美元匯價走強。
由於市場擔心Fannie Mae(FNM-US)與Freddie Mac(FRE-US)恐怕會倒閉，導致美元匯價在本月觸及歷史新低。
FOREX.com首席貨幣策略師Brian Dolan指出：「他的一席話，減緩了市場對『二房』的憂慮。」
Charles Plosser今天在賓州King of Prussia(普魯士大帝)發表演說，強調美國央行升息，「宜早不宜遲」。
2年期國庫券殖利率上揚12個基點，或0.12個百分點，報2.72%。比性質類似的德國債券低187個基點。
ING Financial Markets LLC主管Matthew Kassel表示：「Plosser的強硬談話促使國庫券殖利率走高，並激勵美元匯價走堅。」
CBOT 期貨交易行情顯示，美國聯準會(Fed)9月至少升息1碼的機率達49%，昨天僅為41%。
受油價回跌連累，加拿大貨幣挫貶0.9%，1美元兌1.0085加元。該國出口有一半來自原油、黃金等商品。同時，因報告指出5月份零售銷售的增幅不如預期，引發加元貶勢。
2008 / 07 / 23 星期三 05:48 寄給朋友 友善列印
美國財長Henry Paulson今天發表演說，且費城聯邦準備銀行總裁表示央行應調升利率，受此激勵，美元兌歐元匯價創逾兩周最大升幅。
交易員表示，美元匯率突破1歐元兌1.59美元關卡後，擴大漲幅，因為該價位聚集許多歐元賣單，並且隨著原油價格回檔，亦激勵美元走升。
墨西哥披索觸及5年高點，經濟學家預估該國央行為抑制通貨膨脹，下月將調升利率。
台北時間23日凌晨4:14，美元匯價上漲0.9%，1歐元可兌換1.5794美元。美元匯率攀高0.7%，1美元兌107.20日元。日元兌歐元匯率小漲0.1%，來到1歐元兌169.26日元。
墨國披索匯價一度揚升0.7%至1美元兌10.0568披索，創2002年10月以來最高價位。Citigroup Inc.分析師預估，墨西哥央行在8月會議將升息1碼，讓基準利率升至8.25%。
Paulson今天在紐約發表演說，他力勸國會通過對「二房」的援助計畫，強調美國金融市場的穩定正走到緊要關頭，並且國際投資人亦正在等待最終結果。同時，Paulson重申，強勢美元真的非常重要。消息傳出後，美元匯價走強。
由於市場擔心Fannie Mae(FNM-US)與Freddie Mac(FRE-US)恐怕會倒閉，導致美元匯價在本月觸及歷史新低。
FOREX.com首席貨幣策略師Brian Dolan指出：「他的一席話，減緩了市場對『二房』的憂慮。」
Charles Plosser今天在賓州King of Prussia(普魯士大帝)發表演說，強調美國央行升息，「宜早不宜遲」。
2年期國庫券殖利率上揚12個基點，或0.12個百分點，報2.72%。比性質類似的德國債券低187個基點。
ING Financial Markets LLC主管Matthew Kassel表示：「Plosser的強硬談話促使國庫券殖利率走高，並激勵美元匯價走堅。」
CBOT 期貨交易行情顯示，美國聯準會(Fed)9月至少升息1碼的機率達49%，昨天僅為41%。
受油價回跌連累，加拿大貨幣挫貶0.9%，1美元兌1.0085加元。該國出口有一半來自原油、黃金等商品。同時，因報告指出5月份零售銷售的增幅不如預期，引發加元貶勢。
鮑爾森：美國房屋市場可能很快反轉
鉅亨網編譯郭照青．綜合外電
2008 / 07 / 23 星期三 02:46 寄給朋友 友善列印
美國財政部長鮑爾森說，幾個月內，美國房屋市場可望反轉，並開始復甦，但要解決所有與房屋市場有關的問題，就得耗時更久一些。
鮑爾森在接受Fox商業網訪問時說：「顯然，房屋市場的部份問題還會持續好幾個月，但我相信，幾個月內，房屋市場就將能反轉。」
他說，當房價開始回穩，更多買主開始進場，就是房屋市場反轉的時候了。
鮑爾森補充道，在提供融資予潛在客戶的問題上，Fannie Mae與Freddie Mac所扮演的角色極為吃重。
在周二稍早的演說中，鮑爾森說，國會需要迅速通過對Fannie與Freddie公司紓困案，以便確保這二家大型抵押貸款公司持續在房屋融資上，扮演重要角色。
他說Fannie與Freddie二家公司持續營運，將是房屋市場復甦速度的重心。
2008 / 07 / 23 星期三 02:46 寄給朋友 友善列印
美國財政部長鮑爾森說，幾個月內，美國房屋市場可望反轉，並開始復甦，但要解決所有與房屋市場有關的問題，就得耗時更久一些。
鮑爾森在接受Fox商業網訪問時說：「顯然，房屋市場的部份問題還會持續好幾個月，但我相信，幾個月內，房屋市場就將能反轉。」
他說，當房價開始回穩，更多買主開始進場，就是房屋市場反轉的時候了。
鮑爾森補充道，在提供融資予潛在客戶的問題上，Fannie Mae與Freddie Mac所扮演的角色極為吃重。
在周二稍早的演說中，鮑爾森說，國會需要迅速通過對Fannie與Freddie公司紓困案，以便確保這二家大型抵押貸款公司持續在房屋融資上，扮演重要角色。
他說Fannie與Freddie二家公司持續營運，將是房屋市場復甦速度的重心。
UK home prices fall for first time since 2002
Posted on July 23, 2008 by lushhomeonline
UK house prices dropped this month from a year earlier for the first time since Rightmove plc started measuring them in 2002, as the squeeze on lending pushed up the number of unsold properties to a record.
The average asking price for a home fell an annual 2 per cent to £235,219 (S$634,000), Britain’s most-used property website said in a statement yesterday. On the month, prices declined 1.8 per cent, the biggest drop since December. Prices increased in London by 0.3 per cent from last month.
House prices will fall about 10 per cent this year and 6 per cent in 2009, the Ernst & Young ITEM Club, a forecasting group which uses the same model as the Treasury, said yesterday.
Britons, laden with a record £1.4 trillion of debt, are struggling to afford homes as banks curb lending and credit costs increase.
‘Banks need to be careful they do not get blamed for a second crash in 20 years’ by limiting loans, Miles Shipside, commercial director of Rightmove, said in the statement. ‘The ‘doom and gloom’ attitude should be about the drastically low levels of sales, which affect the wider economy.’
House prices may fall further by as much as 30 per cent and unemployment will increase as the UK slips into a recession, Bank of England policymaker David Blanchflower said in an interview published in The Guardian yesterday. The economy may already be contracting, the newspaper cited him as saying.
The pound fell against the US dollar after Rightmove’s report and Mr Blanchflower’s comments.
The stock of unsold property per real estate agent rose for a sixth month to 77, the highest ever measured by Rightmove, from 74 last month. Prices for properties in the West Midlands fell the most on the month, declining 3.7 per cent. London was the only region to show an increase in prices, the report showed.
Property sales dropped to the lowest in at least 30 years, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) said last Tuesday.
The ITEM Club forecast yesterday that housing transactions would drop 35 per cent this year.
Demand for commercial property dropped in the second quarter to the lowest in at least a decade, RICS said yesterday. Fifty per cent more surveyors reported a drop in demand than those reporting an increase, the report showed.
Mortgage approvals fell to their lowest level in at least nine years in May, the Bank of England said on June 30. Banks are curbing lending following the collapse of the US sub-prime mortgage market, which so far has cost financial institutions worldwide US$423 billion in losses and writedowns.
HBOS plc, the UK’s biggest mortgage lender, said last week that house prices, which tripled in the past decade, dropped last month from a year earlier by the most since 1992. Bank of England policymaker Andrew Sentance said in an interview last week that there is ‘clearly a risk’ that house prices will fall further.
Consumer price increases and the worst housing market slump since the last recession have eroded living standards and helped push the support for Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s ruling Labour Party close to the lowest level since World War II.
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee has kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5 per cent for the past three months as it tries to curb consumer spending, while keeping the economy from falling into a recession. Inflation accelerated to 3.8 per cent last month, the fastest pace in 11 years.
The economy will grow 1.5 per cent this year and then one per cent in 2009, the weakest pace since 1992, the ITEM Club said in a statement yesterday. The group predicted that slowing expansion will allow the Bank of England to cut the benchmark interest rate to 4 per cent by the end of 2009. - Bloomberg
Source : Business Times - 22 Jul 2008
UK house prices dropped this month from a year earlier for the first time since Rightmove plc started measuring them in 2002, as the squeeze on lending pushed up the number of unsold properties to a record.
The average asking price for a home fell an annual 2 per cent to £235,219 (S$634,000), Britain’s most-used property website said in a statement yesterday. On the month, prices declined 1.8 per cent, the biggest drop since December. Prices increased in London by 0.3 per cent from last month.
House prices will fall about 10 per cent this year and 6 per cent in 2009, the Ernst & Young ITEM Club, a forecasting group which uses the same model as the Treasury, said yesterday.
Britons, laden with a record £1.4 trillion of debt, are struggling to afford homes as banks curb lending and credit costs increase.
‘Banks need to be careful they do not get blamed for a second crash in 20 years’ by limiting loans, Miles Shipside, commercial director of Rightmove, said in the statement. ‘The ‘doom and gloom’ attitude should be about the drastically low levels of sales, which affect the wider economy.’
House prices may fall further by as much as 30 per cent and unemployment will increase as the UK slips into a recession, Bank of England policymaker David Blanchflower said in an interview published in The Guardian yesterday. The economy may already be contracting, the newspaper cited him as saying.
The pound fell against the US dollar after Rightmove’s report and Mr Blanchflower’s comments.
The stock of unsold property per real estate agent rose for a sixth month to 77, the highest ever measured by Rightmove, from 74 last month. Prices for properties in the West Midlands fell the most on the month, declining 3.7 per cent. London was the only region to show an increase in prices, the report showed.
Property sales dropped to the lowest in at least 30 years, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) said last Tuesday.
The ITEM Club forecast yesterday that housing transactions would drop 35 per cent this year.
Demand for commercial property dropped in the second quarter to the lowest in at least a decade, RICS said yesterday. Fifty per cent more surveyors reported a drop in demand than those reporting an increase, the report showed.
Mortgage approvals fell to their lowest level in at least nine years in May, the Bank of England said on June 30. Banks are curbing lending following the collapse of the US sub-prime mortgage market, which so far has cost financial institutions worldwide US$423 billion in losses and writedowns.
HBOS plc, the UK’s biggest mortgage lender, said last week that house prices, which tripled in the past decade, dropped last month from a year earlier by the most since 1992. Bank of England policymaker Andrew Sentance said in an interview last week that there is ‘clearly a risk’ that house prices will fall further.
Consumer price increases and the worst housing market slump since the last recession have eroded living standards and helped push the support for Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s ruling Labour Party close to the lowest level since World War II.
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee has kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5 per cent for the past three months as it tries to curb consumer spending, while keeping the economy from falling into a recession. Inflation accelerated to 3.8 per cent last month, the fastest pace in 11 years.
The economy will grow 1.5 per cent this year and then one per cent in 2009, the weakest pace since 1992, the ITEM Club said in a statement yesterday. The group predicted that slowing expansion will allow the Bank of England to cut the benchmark interest rate to 4 per cent by the end of 2009. - Bloomberg
Source : Business Times - 22 Jul 2008
Govt to delay additional S$1.7b worth of public sector projects
Posted on July 23, 2008 by lushhomeonline
The government has decided to postpone an additional S$1.7 billion worth of public sector projects to further ease pressure on construction resources in Singapore.
The government had earlier announced that it would postpone about S$3 billion worth of public sector projects to after 2009.
With the latest decision, the government is deferring a total of about S$4.7 billion worth of public sector construction projects to 2010 and beyond.
The construction of the main building of the proposed Jurong General Hospital will be deferred to 2010, although the hospital will still be completed and open as scheduled by 2015.
Other deferred projects include less urgent improvement works which will not compromise Singapore’s strategic and social needs. Public housing building and upgrading programmes are not affected.
“The additional deferment will allow the existing construction capacity and resources to be channelled towards the timely delivery of some big projects such as the integrated resorts, Marina Business Financial Centre and the Downtown MRT Line,” said a Building and Construction Authority (BCA) statement.
Source : Channel NewsAsia - 22 Jul 2008
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
上海首批160萬平方米經濟適用房三季度將全面開工
世華財訊提供
2008 / 07 / 22 星期二 17:39 寄給朋友 友善列印
上海08年將繼續擴大廉租住房制度受益面，進一步加快經濟適用住房建設，首批160萬平方米經適房將在三季度全面開工。
據新華社7月22日報導，從22日召開的上海市建設交通行業黨政負責幹部大會上傳出訊息，上海將進一步加快經濟適用住房建設，首批160萬平方米將在三季度全面開工。
上海市副市長沈駿在會上表示，推進舊區改造和住房保障是2008年上海的重點工作，上海將進一步明確“十一五”舊區改造後三年目標任務，繼續擴大廉租住房制度受益面，同時加快經濟適用住房建設。
據有關人士介紹，上海有關部門正在著力研究制定經濟適用住房的供應、管理辦法，並將建立有效的結束機制，不排除在一些關鍵問題上轉載入聽證制度。
(徐志嬌 編輯)
2008 / 07 / 22 星期二 17:39 寄給朋友 友善列印
上海08年將繼續擴大廉租住房制度受益面，進一步加快經濟適用住房建設，首批160萬平方米經適房將在三季度全面開工。
據新華社7月22日報導，從22日召開的上海市建設交通行業黨政負責幹部大會上傳出訊息，上海將進一步加快經濟適用住房建設，首批160萬平方米將在三季度全面開工。
上海市副市長沈駿在會上表示，推進舊區改造和住房保障是2008年上海的重點工作，上海將進一步明確“十一五”舊區改造後三年目標任務，繼續擴大廉租住房制度受益面，同時加快經濟適用住房建設。
據有關人士介紹，上海有關部門正在著力研究制定經濟適用住房的供應、管理辦法，並將建立有效的結束機制，不排除在一些關鍵問題上轉載入聽證制度。
(徐志嬌 編輯)
萬科帶頭降價“上海房價聯盟”瓦解
李麗《每日經濟新聞》
2008 / 07 / 22 星期二 18:00 寄給朋友 友善列印
當上海房價還被稱為“中國樓市最後堡壘”的時候，萬科上海的在售樓盤“萬科中林苑”，卻率先下調了總價，撕開了“上海房價不跌”的裂口。昨日，記者獲悉，“萬科中林苑”近期將推出的90平方米左右的裝修房，單套總價約在130萬~160萬元，以此計算，此批房源的單價約為14400~17000元/平方米。
而昨日其上海官方的網上房地產資料顯示，6月21日，“萬科中林苑”推出新房源的網上參考價為18000元/平方米，且可浮動幅度為20%。由此可見，“萬科中林苑”新房源的價格下降幅度約在6%~20%。
對於價格下調，昨日，上海萬科相關人士表示，總價下調，主要是由於裝修標準下調的緣故。
一位業內人士表示，“萬科中林苑”其實銷售得並不好，為了加快回籠資金的速度，因此不得以才變相降價。網上房地產資料顯示，萬科中林苑6月21日推出300套房源，但截至昨日18時38分，萬科中林苑6月、7月份共售出房源75套。
就在 “萬科中林苑”總價下調之際，上海商品住宅的成交均價卻在上揚。昨日，佑威房地產研究中心的資料顯示，上周上海商品住宅的成交量略微回升了3%，為15.39萬平方米，平均成交價格在市區高檔樓盤成交的帶動下回升了10%，為14164元/平方米。
2008 / 07 / 22 星期二 18:00 寄給朋友 友善列印
當上海房價還被稱為“中國樓市最後堡壘”的時候，萬科上海的在售樓盤“萬科中林苑”，卻率先下調了總價，撕開了“上海房價不跌”的裂口。昨日，記者獲悉，“萬科中林苑”近期將推出的90平方米左右的裝修房，單套總價約在130萬~160萬元，以此計算，此批房源的單價約為14400~17000元/平方米。
而昨日其上海官方的網上房地產資料顯示，6月21日，“萬科中林苑”推出新房源的網上參考價為18000元/平方米，且可浮動幅度為20%。由此可見，“萬科中林苑”新房源的價格下降幅度約在6%~20%。
對於價格下調，昨日，上海萬科相關人士表示，總價下調，主要是由於裝修標準下調的緣故。
一位業內人士表示，“萬科中林苑”其實銷售得並不好，為了加快回籠資金的速度，因此不得以才變相降價。網上房地產資料顯示，萬科中林苑6月21日推出300套房源，但截至昨日18時38分，萬科中林苑6月、7月份共售出房源75套。
就在 “萬科中林苑”總價下調之際，上海商品住宅的成交均價卻在上揚。昨日，佑威房地產研究中心的資料顯示，上周上海商品住宅的成交量略微回升了3%，為15.39萬平方米，平均成交價格在市區高檔樓盤成交的帶動下回升了10%，為14164元/平方米。
与次贷危机共存 胡舒立
总第216期 出版日期：2008-07-21 共有 14 条点评
不可寄望次贷危机在短期内结束；国内拖延已久的价格改革与结构调整应果决进行；不可轻言抄底
美国经济再呈水深火热之势。 从6月第二周雷曼兄弟公司股价雪崩，到两家联邦房贷机构房利美（Fannie Mae）和房地美（Freddie Mac）突现危机，直至总资产逾320亿美元的房贷银行IndyMac被接管，引发洛杉矶地区多年来仅见的挤兑风潮，可谓危机频频，报警声急，足使华尔街信心加速下滑。 美国政府采取了一反常态的干预措施：美联储对房利美与房地美开放贴现窗口，财政部注资进入讨论范围；美国证券交易委员会（SEC）7月15日宣布，将采取30天紧急行动，遏制针对部分大型金融企业的“不当做空”。然而，没有迹象表明这些措施可能改变既定颓势，市场法则仍在发生作用（参见本期“美国房贷救‘美’风波”）。 “天塌了！”——美国媒体大字标题。就在SEC作出决定的当日，美国所有主流报纸均在头版以接近整版的篇幅报道经济和金融动荡，承认“现在已经非常清楚，这不是普通的经济危机，不会在近期结束”。 新公布的经济数据，冷酷地强化了市场的危机感。数据显示，美国的通货膨胀指数在过去的一个月内上升了1.1％，为1982年以来的最大升幅；而较之去年同期升幅达5％，为1991年来的最高值。美联储主席伯南克为之惊呼：“美国的通胀太高了！”与高通胀相伴随，消费意愿下降。美国6月的零售价格上升了1.8％，零售总额仅上升了0.1％，如果除去加油站的销售则为负的0.5％。 虽然美联储在此前发表的货币政策报告中，将对2008年GDP增幅预期由此前的0.3％至1.2％，大幅修正为1.0％至1.6％，但次贷危机重创实体经济已经是现实。正如伯南克近日在国会听证会上所说，当前美国经济仍然面临诸多困难，经济增长前景仍不确定，能源价格居高不下、信贷紧缩、房屋市场进一步萎缩，都增加了经济的下行风险，通胀的上行风险也进一步增加。
对于中国人来说，此轮美国经济和金融危机的深化，格外值得关注和深思。 从去年7月算起，美国次贷危机持续已逾一年。因美国在世界经济中牵一发动全身的地位，因中国深度融入世界，且从金融投资到贸易往来均与美国有着极为密切的关系，中国对这场危机不再是单纯地隔岸观火，关注不可谓不甚，讨论不可谓不炽。然而，相当一部分人，包括分析人士和商业决策人士，长时间内简单地将之视为一场很快就会触底、冲击范围有限的短期危机，对其复杂性领悟不透，对其严重性和长期性估计不足。甚至在贝尔斯登被关闭引发华尔街深幅震荡之后，这种“短期论”、“有限论”识见仍然大有市场。 不应否认，除了不可避免的认识局限，一厢情愿的侥幸心理也是误解萌生的重要原因。侥幸乃判断经济形势之大忌。面对无情的现实，已经到了必须清醒的时候。当然，美国此次危机的走势如何、影响多大仍待观察，过度悲观和惊惶失措亦大可不必，但是，只要承认这是一场长期的、深层次、震荡广泛、触及实体的危机，而且承认中国不可能完全置身事外，独善其身，我们至少应当看到：
其一，美国经济已经处于衰退之中，而且衰退还会继续深化，其结果就是美国以及欧洲市场需求进一步萎缩。这必然对中国企业出口造成巨大影响，使中国产业结构调整和升级的压力加剧。人民币升值压力自2004年以来显性化，其实已经使企业获得了明确的调整信号，但这种压力毕竟是可控的，因为升值与否和升值节奏本身是可控的。相形之下，中国出口及高度依赖出口的中国经济，现在正面对外需不足持续加重的刚性压力。很显然，这表明产业结构调整已经时不我待，而且转型过程必然是优胜劣汰的过程，转型的痛苦可能是深重的，却也只能承受。
其二，美国金融和经济危机加深加重，分散风险是其必然选择，故此，美元贬值和资源产品价格继续攀升，特别是国际油价长期在高位运行已经不可避免。中国目前对石油等资源产品实行低价管制，即便已被迫行政性提价，但仍远未纠正其对资源配置和经济运行的巨大扭曲。这种管制政策本来就难以为继，政策制定者心之所系，无非是期待国际市场很快出现相应的价格回落。现实表明这种期待已断无可能，忍受阵痛放开资源产品价格已成惟一选择。
其三，美国经济和金融危机还有一层显著后果，即其金融资产大幅缩水。不难看出，这场危机尚未见底，美国及欧洲国家受到波及的金融资产估值仍难合理。中国国有金融机构已经持有大量海外金融资产，其中包括美国国债，包括部分国有股份制银行所持房贷相关资产，也包括去年以来中国投资公司和国家开发银行购入的跨国金融机构股份。这些资产目前已经大幅贬值，故相关机构加强风险管理至关重要，尤其不宜以“趁低吸纳、摊薄损失”为由，继续增持高风险资产。中信证券2007年10月与美国投行贝尔斯登签约，计划以可转债形式换股，后来仅因两地监管机构循例审核拖延，终遇贝尔斯登倒闭，于中信证券可称大幸，于国内其他金融机构应为镜鉴。■
Condo sales in S’pore hit by bad news from US
Posted on July 22, 2008 by lushhomeonline
THE bad news coming out of the United States last week took its toll on property sales in Singapore over the weekend.
Two newly released projects sold fewer than 20 units each, as homebuyers’ caution deepened after the collapse of US bank IndyMac and the forced rescue of mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
CapitaLand’s Wharf Residence in Tong Watt Road, which started taking bookings over the weekend, sold just over 10 units, sources said.
The 173-unit condominium off River Valley Road is priced between $1,500 per sq ft (psf) and $1,900 psf. Unit sizes start at about 1,000 sq ft, so a two-bedroom unit costs $1.6 million to $1.7 million.
Meanwhile, Frasers Centrepoint sold about 19 of the 48 units it released at Woodsville 28 near Potong Pasir MRT station.
But the developer, which priced the units at an average of $880 psf, said it was ‘quite encouraged by the take-up rate’.
‘It was above our expectations, given the general sentiment in the market,’ said a spokesman.
Woodsville 28 has two- and three-bedroom units, starting from 829 sq ft, with an average two-bedder costing about $755,000.
Sales also continued at a snail’s pace at other condos that have recently been launched, despite reports of large crowds at showflats.
OLA Residences in Mountbatten Road has sold only about 10 of its 50 units since sales began three weeks ago.
‘There are a lot of walk-ins but offers from buyers are coming in too low,’ said a property agent. The freehold project is priced at about $1,200 psf on average.
Two smaller projects, The Scenic@Braddell in Braddell Road and Jubilee Residence in Pasir Panjang, have sold about 10 units each in the last few weekends, putting them at the halfway mark in sales. The Scenic is priced at $820 psf to $850 psf, while Jubilee is going for $900 psf.
Cheaper projects are seeing better sales. Buyers have picked up more than 60 of the 212 units at Beacon Heights in St Michael’s Road for an average price of $800 psf, agents said. The 999-year leasehold condo developed by Kim Eng Securities started sales two weekends ago.
‘Buyers are still waiting to see if prices go down further, and this will continue until the US situation stabilises,’ said Mr Ku Swee Yong, director of marketing and business development at property firm Savills Singapore.
‘There are definitely buyers with enough money to buy new properties, but they are doing their homework these days.’
Source : Straits Times - 22 Jul 2008
THE bad news coming out of the United States last week took its toll on property sales in Singapore over the weekend.
Two newly released projects sold fewer than 20 units each, as homebuyers’ caution deepened after the collapse of US bank IndyMac and the forced rescue of mortgage giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
CapitaLand’s Wharf Residence in Tong Watt Road, which started taking bookings over the weekend, sold just over 10 units, sources said.
The 173-unit condominium off River Valley Road is priced between $1,500 per sq ft (psf) and $1,900 psf. Unit sizes start at about 1,000 sq ft, so a two-bedroom unit costs $1.6 million to $1.7 million.
Meanwhile, Frasers Centrepoint sold about 19 of the 48 units it released at Woodsville 28 near Potong Pasir MRT station.
But the developer, which priced the units at an average of $880 psf, said it was ‘quite encouraged by the take-up rate’.
‘It was above our expectations, given the general sentiment in the market,’ said a spokesman.
Woodsville 28 has two- and three-bedroom units, starting from 829 sq ft, with an average two-bedder costing about $755,000.
Sales also continued at a snail’s pace at other condos that have recently been launched, despite reports of large crowds at showflats.
OLA Residences in Mountbatten Road has sold only about 10 of its 50 units since sales began three weeks ago.
‘There are a lot of walk-ins but offers from buyers are coming in too low,’ said a property agent. The freehold project is priced at about $1,200 psf on average.
Two smaller projects, The Scenic@Braddell in Braddell Road and Jubilee Residence in Pasir Panjang, have sold about 10 units each in the last few weekends, putting them at the halfway mark in sales. The Scenic is priced at $820 psf to $850 psf, while Jubilee is going for $900 psf.
Cheaper projects are seeing better sales. Buyers have picked up more than 60 of the 212 units at Beacon Heights in St Michael’s Road for an average price of $800 psf, agents said. The 999-year leasehold condo developed by Kim Eng Securities started sales two weekends ago.
‘Buyers are still waiting to see if prices go down further, and this will continue until the US situation stabilises,’ said Mr Ku Swee Yong, director of marketing and business development at property firm Savills Singapore.
‘There are definitely buyers with enough money to buy new properties, but they are doing their homework these days.’
Source : Straits Times - 22 Jul 2008
Johor’s Horizon Hills attracts foreign buyers
Posted on July 22, 2008 by lushhomeonline
WITH a golf course set within a residential township, the resort-style Horizon Hills in South Johor is attracting considerable overseas interest - more than 60 per cent of buyers in launched precincts are foreigners.
Here in town yesterday to promote the project, Malaysian developer Gamuda Land also noted that Singaporeans make up more than half of the foreign buyers. The rest come from countries as far as Sri Lanka, the United Kingdom, South Africa, the US, Japan and India.
Horizon Hills is located in Nusajaya, a flagship zone within South Johor’s Iskandar Malaysia, which is slated to become southern peninsular Malaysia’s economic corridor. Spanning 1,200 acres, the township comprises 13 precincts with bungalows, semi-detached, cluster and terrace homes.
Two precincts - The Gateway and The Golf - were launched last year. Ninety per cent of The Gateway’s more than 400 residential units were taken up.
A 200-acre 18-hole designer golf course and a club house are also integral parts of Horizon Hills. Costing RM30 million (S$12.5 million) and RM50 million respectively, the golf course and club house were completed this month.
Bungalows with golf course frontage went for RM2 million on average, while semi-detached units cost around RM900,000.
‘The homes in Horizon Hills are very affordable,’ said Gamuda Land’s managing director Chow Chee Wah. ‘The resort lifestyle and investment value which Horizon Hills offer have attracted the attention of foreigners who are working in Johor Baru and Singapore.’
Home prices in Horizon Hill have risen by about 15-20 per cent in the last one and a half years, Mr Chow pointed out. The uptrend is likely to continue as construction costs in Malaysia increase. Costs have swelled by some 35 per cent in Malaysia in the past year, he said.
Managing director of Savills Singapore Michael Ng also expected to see land prices in the area rise due to development and growing foreign investment in Iskandar Malaysia. Savills Singapore is the marketing agent for Horizon Hills in the region.
Source : Straits Times - 22 Jul 2008
WITH a golf course set within a residential township, the resort-style Horizon Hills in South Johor is attracting considerable overseas interest - more than 60 per cent of buyers in launched precincts are foreigners.
Here in town yesterday to promote the project, Malaysian developer Gamuda Land also noted that Singaporeans make up more than half of the foreign buyers. The rest come from countries as far as Sri Lanka, the United Kingdom, South Africa, the US, Japan and India.
Horizon Hills is located in Nusajaya, a flagship zone within South Johor’s Iskandar Malaysia, which is slated to become southern peninsular Malaysia’s economic corridor. Spanning 1,200 acres, the township comprises 13 precincts with bungalows, semi-detached, cluster and terrace homes.
Two precincts - The Gateway and The Golf - were launched last year. Ninety per cent of The Gateway’s more than 400 residential units were taken up.
A 200-acre 18-hole designer golf course and a club house are also integral parts of Horizon Hills. Costing RM30 million (S$12.5 million) and RM50 million respectively, the golf course and club house were completed this month.
Bungalows with golf course frontage went for RM2 million on average, while semi-detached units cost around RM900,000.
‘The homes in Horizon Hills are very affordable,’ said Gamuda Land’s managing director Chow Chee Wah. ‘The resort lifestyle and investment value which Horizon Hills offer have attracted the attention of foreigners who are working in Johor Baru and Singapore.’
Home prices in Horizon Hill have risen by about 15-20 per cent in the last one and a half years, Mr Chow pointed out. The uptrend is likely to continue as construction costs in Malaysia increase. Costs have swelled by some 35 per cent in Malaysia in the past year, he said.
Managing director of Savills Singapore Michael Ng also expected to see land prices in the area rise due to development and growing foreign investment in Iskandar Malaysia. Savills Singapore is the marketing agent for Horizon Hills in the region.
Source : Straits Times - 22 Jul 2008
Monday, July 21, 2008
上海推“頂級”住宅用地 樓板價格達到2.2萬元/平方米。
來源：東方早報2008 / 07 / 21 星期一 17:13 寄給朋友 友善列印 樓市一片不平靜聲中，7月18日，西郊賓館旁一幅1.36萬平方米的土地被上海房地局推向公開市場。由於土地出讓保證金高達3000萬元，預計這幅低密度住宅土地拍賣起價接近3億元，樓板價格達到2.2萬元/平方米。不管未來出讓結果如何，其起始價已經成為近年來上海土地出讓過程中住宅用地單價之最。 距上一幅住宅用地推出不到一個星期，18日上海房地局再推地，15號公告繼續只推出一幅非工業用地，即位于長寧區新涇鎮240街坊地塊，土地面積1.36萬平方米，容積率不大於1。長寧地區一向賣地寥寥，住宅用地更是數年都不見蹤影，此地塊一經推出，一鳴驚人。
上海房地局公告資料顯示，土地保證金一欄高達3000萬元，以慣例而論，保證金一般占到地塊交易起始價格的10%，以此推論，這一地塊掛牌起始價格達到3億元之巨。地塊容積率僅為1，以這一價格估算，地塊樓板價格達到驚人的2.2萬元/平方米，將創下上海歷年來居住用地出讓單價之最。
在此之前，以居住用地而論，上海成交價格最高的一個地塊，是去年由仁恒地產在密閉箱報價形式下創下的新江灣地塊2萬元/平方米的樓板天價。但當初這一地塊起始單價並不足萬元。另外去年被看作去年最熱的一處大型綜合性用地盧灣區104、105街坊，由於限外政策等因素影響，今年年初成交僅以底價成交，單價不足2萬元/平方米。
不過以位置而論，最新推出的這一地塊可說是位於頂級居住區內。資訊顯示，該地塊位於青溪路以西、可樂路以南、野奴涇東北，整個項目緊鄰國賓館西郊賓館，旁邊是曾引人矚目的全國最貴別墅之一、單套價格1.5億元以上的“檀宮”。
由於處於上海最頂級的高級別墅區，對於滬上開發商而言，地塊的吸引力不言而喻。雖然地塊面積不大，但由於這一位置環境極其優越，相信還是會引來眾多關注目光。
不過由於目前上海整體市場成交緩慢，地價走低趨勢明顯，對於起價就已達2.2萬元/平方米的地塊而言，未來走向還難見端倪。
上海房地局公告資料顯示，土地保證金一欄高達3000萬元，以慣例而論，保證金一般占到地塊交易起始價格的10%，以此推論，這一地塊掛牌起始價格達到3億元之巨。地塊容積率僅為1，以這一價格估算，地塊樓板價格達到驚人的2.2萬元/平方米，將創下上海歷年來居住用地出讓單價之最。
在此之前，以居住用地而論，上海成交價格最高的一個地塊，是去年由仁恒地產在密閉箱報價形式下創下的新江灣地塊2萬元/平方米的樓板天價。但當初這一地塊起始單價並不足萬元。另外去年被看作去年最熱的一處大型綜合性用地盧灣區104、105街坊，由於限外政策等因素影響，今年年初成交僅以底價成交，單價不足2萬元/平方米。
不過以位置而論，最新推出的這一地塊可說是位於頂級居住區內。資訊顯示，該地塊位於青溪路以西、可樂路以南、野奴涇東北，整個項目緊鄰國賓館西郊賓館，旁邊是曾引人矚目的全國最貴別墅之一、單套價格1.5億元以上的“檀宮”。
由於處於上海最頂級的高級別墅區，對於滬上開發商而言，地塊的吸引力不言而喻。雖然地塊面積不大，但由於這一位置環境極其優越，相信還是會引來眾多關注目光。
不過由於目前上海整體市場成交緩慢，地價走低趨勢明顯，對於起價就已達2.2萬元/平方米的地塊而言，未來走向還難見端倪。
海峡时报指数(STI) 080721
● 银
本栏于上周一（14日）曾预估指数一旦时间与动力交汇，则将迅速滑落，以填补介于2862.27点至2824.91点间的缺口。果然不出所料，指数过后骤然下跌，7月16日更下试2819.65点，遂将上述缺口填补。从技术分析，未来数周指数当向上回扯，以填补介于3028.42点至3040.09点及介于3085.71点至3146.73点间的缺口，这么一来股民汹涌进场，就可能累积足夠的动力而在刹那间全线溃败，一旦跌穿2745.96点则当朝2518点前进，因为一个“头肩形”正在形成中，更何况其长期跌势已提前到来。
本栏于上周一（14日）曾预估指数一旦时间与动力交汇，则将迅速滑落，以填补介于2862.27点至2824.91点间的缺口。果然不出所料，指数过后骤然下跌，7月16日更下试2819.65点，遂将上述缺口填补。从技术分析，未来数周指数当向上回扯，以填补介于3028.42点至3040.09点及介于3085.71点至3146.73点间的缺口，这么一来股民汹涌进场，就可能累积足夠的动力而在刹那间全线溃败，一旦跌穿2745.96点则当朝2518点前进，因为一个“头肩形”正在形成中，更何况其长期跌势已提前到来。
花旗:美英房價還要跌兩年
財匯資訊提供，摘自：上海證券報2008 / 07 / 21 星期一 09:55 寄給朋友 友善列印 英國廣播公司當地時間１９日援引美國花旗集團董事長溫·比朔夫的話說，英國和美國的房價今明兩年可能還要持續下跌。 比朔夫說，他預計住房市場實現穩定需要兩年，信貸緊縮可能持續到２００９年，並且明年將是相當困難的一年。
花旗集團是世界最大的金融服務企業。受美國次級住房抵押貸款危機等因素影響，在６月底結束的今年第二季度，花旗虧損２５億美元，連續第三個季度虧損，累計虧損額已高達１７０億美元。比朔夫說，花旗集團將裁減冗員。
根據反映美國房價走勢的重要指標標普／席勒房價指數，今年４月份美國２０個大城市房價比一年前下跌１５．３％，跌幅創歷史紀錄。６月份，美國購房者因無力還貸而喪失住房贖回權的案例數量較去年同期猛增５３％。今年全年美國喪失住房贖回權案例預計將達到２５０萬件，遠高於去年的１５０萬件。
花旗集團是世界最大的金融服務企業。受美國次級住房抵押貸款危機等因素影響，在６月底結束的今年第二季度，花旗虧損２５億美元，連續第三個季度虧損，累計虧損額已高達１７０億美元。比朔夫說，花旗集團將裁減冗員。
根據反映美國房價走勢的重要指標標普／席勒房價指數，今年４月份美國２０個大城市房價比一年前下跌１５．３％，跌幅創歷史紀錄。６月份，美國購房者因無力還貸而喪失住房贖回權的案例數量較去年同期猛增５３％。今年全年美國喪失住房贖回權案例預計將達到２５０萬件，遠高於去年的１５０萬件。
Park Central development: Condo-like flats for less than $700,000
Posted on July 19, 2008 by lushhomeonline
Four 30-storey blocks under the design, build and sell scheme for Ang Mo Kio
SINGAPORE’S third condo-style public housing project is about to go on sale, this time in the heart of bustling Ang Mo Kio.
The project is located at Ang Mo Kio Street 52, which is flanked by Ang Mo Kio Avenue 3 and Avenue 5 and within walking distance of the Ang Mo Kio MRT station.
LIVING IN STYLE: The Park Central development will boast amenities like barbecue pits and jogging path on the roof-top garden above the carpark. — ARTIST’S IMPRESSION: COURTESY OF UNITED ENGINEERS
The prices for Park Central @AMK are about 10 per cent below the last such project, City View@Boon Keng, launched early this year. Sales there were slow amid some concerns that prices were too high.
Developer United Engineers (UE), through its unit Greatearth Developments, is launching the 578-unit Park Central project for sale on Wednesday (July 23).
It aims to take advantage of the small window before the Hungry Ghost month starts in early August when some home hunters are wary of buying.
The project, comprising four 30-storey towers, will feature only four- and five-room flats. The average price will be about $490 to $500 per sq ft, with the four-room units going for about $400,000 to $500,000. The five-room units will cost about $600,000 to $670,000.
Park Central also has 20 ‘loft units’, which have higher ceilings of 3.6m, compared with the typical flat height of 2.6m. They will cost $580,000 to just below $700,000.
These high-end HDB flats will boast condo-style fittings such as built-in wardrobes, kitchen cabinets, air-conditioning systems, timber flooring and planter boxes.
The developer will also put in barbecue pits and a 400m jogging path on the roof-top garden above the carpark, allowing for more privacy, though these are public areas.
PropNex chief executive Mohamed Ismail expects strong demand as the prices are very fair, particularly considering the significant run-up in construction costs, he said.
UE chief executive Jackson Yap said he priced the units slightly above resale flat prices. He is optimistic as resale prices are still rising.
UE won the Park Central site in a tender last November at $212 per sq ft of potential gross floor area. It is the third project under under the Housing Board’s Design, Build and Sell Scheme (DBSS).
In such projects, private developers set the price of the flats but are bound by general public housing rules. For instance, they can sell their flats only to households earning not more than $8,000 a month.
Because of this restriction, the project’s price seems a little high, said Chesterton International’s head of research and consultancy, Mr Colin Tan. ‘But the interest will be strong as Ang Mo Kio is one of Singapore’s largest housing estates.
‘People tend to buy in areas they know or have lived in. With a little clever marketing, enough people may be persuaded to really stretch themselves and part with their hard-earned money.’
The first DBSS project, The Premiere@Tampines, met with an overwhelming response when it was launched at the end of 2006. But demand at City View@Boon Keng, which was priced over 50 per cent more than The Premiere, was slower. Some buyers felt the prices - the five-room units cost $536,000 to $727,000 - were too high.
The fourth DBSS project, in Bishan, could come to market at the end of the year.
Source : Straits Times - 19 Jul 2008
Four 30-storey blocks under the design, build and sell scheme for Ang Mo Kio
SINGAPORE’S third condo-style public housing project is about to go on sale, this time in the heart of bustling Ang Mo Kio.
The project is located at Ang Mo Kio Street 52, which is flanked by Ang Mo Kio Avenue 3 and Avenue 5 and within walking distance of the Ang Mo Kio MRT station.
LIVING IN STYLE: The Park Central development will boast amenities like barbecue pits and jogging path on the roof-top garden above the carpark. — ARTIST’S IMPRESSION: COURTESY OF UNITED ENGINEERS
The prices for Park Central @AMK are about 10 per cent below the last such project, City View@Boon Keng, launched early this year. Sales there were slow amid some concerns that prices were too high.
Developer United Engineers (UE), through its unit Greatearth Developments, is launching the 578-unit Park Central project for sale on Wednesday (July 23).
It aims to take advantage of the small window before the Hungry Ghost month starts in early August when some home hunters are wary of buying.
The project, comprising four 30-storey towers, will feature only four- and five-room flats. The average price will be about $490 to $500 per sq ft, with the four-room units going for about $400,000 to $500,000. The five-room units will cost about $600,000 to $670,000.
Park Central also has 20 ‘loft units’, which have higher ceilings of 3.6m, compared with the typical flat height of 2.6m. They will cost $580,000 to just below $700,000.
These high-end HDB flats will boast condo-style fittings such as built-in wardrobes, kitchen cabinets, air-conditioning systems, timber flooring and planter boxes.
The developer will also put in barbecue pits and a 400m jogging path on the roof-top garden above the carpark, allowing for more privacy, though these are public areas.
PropNex chief executive Mohamed Ismail expects strong demand as the prices are very fair, particularly considering the significant run-up in construction costs, he said.
UE chief executive Jackson Yap said he priced the units slightly above resale flat prices. He is optimistic as resale prices are still rising.
UE won the Park Central site in a tender last November at $212 per sq ft of potential gross floor area. It is the third project under under the Housing Board’s Design, Build and Sell Scheme (DBSS).
In such projects, private developers set the price of the flats but are bound by general public housing rules. For instance, they can sell their flats only to households earning not more than $8,000 a month.
Because of this restriction, the project’s price seems a little high, said Chesterton International’s head of research and consultancy, Mr Colin Tan. ‘But the interest will be strong as Ang Mo Kio is one of Singapore’s largest housing estates.
‘People tend to buy in areas they know or have lived in. With a little clever marketing, enough people may be persuaded to really stretch themselves and part with their hard-earned money.’
The first DBSS project, The Premiere@Tampines, met with an overwhelming response when it was launched at the end of 2006. But demand at City View@Boon Keng, which was priced over 50 per cent more than The Premiere, was slower. Some buyers felt the prices - the five-room units cost $536,000 to $727,000 - were too high.
The fourth DBSS project, in Bishan, could come to market at the end of the year.
Source : Straits Times - 19 Jul 2008
UE’s Park Central @ AMK to sell for $490-500 psf
Posted on July 19, 2008 by lushhomeonline
It has ‘condo-style’ fittings and finishes, & expects a sell-out
UNITED Engineers (UE) has priced its Design, Build and Sell Scheme (DBSS) project Park Central @ AMK at an appealing $490-$500 psf - in an apparent bid to move units fast.
UE acquired the Housing and Development Board site in November 2007 and based on the $212.40 per sq ft per plot ratio (psf ppr) it paid, property consultants estimated the launch price could be around $580 psf.
The actual price, revealed yesterday by UE, is lower than the reported average price of $520 psf for another DBSS project, City View @ Boon Keng, launched earlier this year.
UE did not comment on its pricing strategy but said Park Central @ AMK will comprise four 30-storey towers with a total of 578 four and five-room units.
With ‘condominium-style’ fittings and finishes, four-room units are not expected to cost more than $400,000, while five-room units will be under $600,000.
PropNex CEO Mohamed Ismail said the project is, ‘competitively priced’. ‘I am glad the developer has priced it sensitively.’
Mr Ismail said that when City View @ Boon Keng was launched there was, ’some resistance’ to the pricing.
Savills Singapore director (marketing and business development) Ku Swee Yong agrees that Central Park @ AMK is attractively priced. He believes UE could be looking at a slim profit margin, given a breakeven price of around $400 psf.
Increasing construction costs, which he estimates at between $200-$250 psf, could also weigh in.
Still, a sell-out development would be good for overall market sentiment, he said.
Comparing the pricing of Central Park @ AMK with the prices of HDB resale flats in the area, ERA Asia-Pacific assistant vice-president Eugene Lim said UE’s project looks like good value.
Mr Lim said that five-room flats in the area, which are at least five years old, are going for around $400,000.
That UE aims to sell Central Park @ AMK seems clear.
Still, the response from buyers is unlikely to reach the fever pitch experienced at the launch of the first DBSS development in late 2006. Then, almost 6,000 people applied for 616 units at Premiere @ Tampines. But those units were going for around $300 psf.
Source : Business Times - 19 Jul 2008
It has ‘condo-style’ fittings and finishes, & expects a sell-out
UNITED Engineers (UE) has priced its Design, Build and Sell Scheme (DBSS) project Park Central @ AMK at an appealing $490-$500 psf - in an apparent bid to move units fast.
UE acquired the Housing and Development Board site in November 2007 and based on the $212.40 per sq ft per plot ratio (psf ppr) it paid, property consultants estimated the launch price could be around $580 psf.
The actual price, revealed yesterday by UE, is lower than the reported average price of $520 psf for another DBSS project, City View @ Boon Keng, launched earlier this year.
UE did not comment on its pricing strategy but said Park Central @ AMK will comprise four 30-storey towers with a total of 578 four and five-room units.
With ‘condominium-style’ fittings and finishes, four-room units are not expected to cost more than $400,000, while five-room units will be under $600,000.
PropNex CEO Mohamed Ismail said the project is, ‘competitively priced’. ‘I am glad the developer has priced it sensitively.’
Mr Ismail said that when City View @ Boon Keng was launched there was, ’some resistance’ to the pricing.
Savills Singapore director (marketing and business development) Ku Swee Yong agrees that Central Park @ AMK is attractively priced. He believes UE could be looking at a slim profit margin, given a breakeven price of around $400 psf.
Increasing construction costs, which he estimates at between $200-$250 psf, could also weigh in.
Still, a sell-out development would be good for overall market sentiment, he said.
Comparing the pricing of Central Park @ AMK with the prices of HDB resale flats in the area, ERA Asia-Pacific assistant vice-president Eugene Lim said UE’s project looks like good value.
Mr Lim said that five-room flats in the area, which are at least five years old, are going for around $400,000.
That UE aims to sell Central Park @ AMK seems clear.
Still, the response from buyers is unlikely to reach the fever pitch experienced at the launch of the first DBSS development in late 2006. Then, almost 6,000 people applied for 616 units at Premiere @ Tampines. But those units were going for around $300 psf.
Source : Business Times - 19 Jul 2008
A-Reit: Q1 distributable income of $52m
Posted on July 19, 2008 by lushhomeonline
ASCENDAS Real Estate Investment Trust (A-Reit) yesterday reported net distributable income of $51.8 million for the first quarter ended June 30, 2008 - 15.9 per cent higher than for the corresponding period last year.
This follows a 19.6 per cent growth in gross revenue from the year-ago period to $92.5 million. The increase was due mainly to additional rental income from completed acquisitions and a development project.
The distribution per unit (DPU) for the quarter is 3.89 cents, up 15.4 per cent from the year-ago period. The DPU, to be paid out on Aug 27, represents an annualised yield of 7 per cent based on the closing price of $2.21 per A-Reit unit on June 30.
A-Reit had 86 properties with a total book value of around $4.5 billion as at June 30. Acquisitions in Q1 comprised 8 Loyang Way 1 for $25 million and 31 International Business Park for $246.8 million.
The portfolio’s overall occupancy rate stood at 98.6 per cent, against 97.2 per cent a year ago. For the business and science park and hi-tech industrial properties, renewal rates rose 63.9 per cent and 44.4 per cent respectively versus preceding contract rates.
This is due to ‘the continued healthy demand for quality suburban industrial and business space as well as the active leasing and investment activities conducted by the manager and its property management team’, said A-Reit manager Ascendas Funds Management (S)’s CEO and executive director Tan Ser Ping.
A-Reit’s weighted average borrowing cost for the portfolio was 3.16 per cent. To diversify funding sources, it recently took on a three-year committed revolving credit facility for $200 million, and is also incorporating a medium-term notes issuance facility.
Citing a CB Richard Ellis study, A-Reit said yesterday that rents and occupancy rates for hi-tech and business park space could continue to increase, but at a slower pace.
A-Reit also mentioned that it is difficult to gauge how much the Asian economy could be hit by the possible US recession and global inflationary pressure.
‘Despite the cautious outlook for the economy and barring any unforeseen events, the manager expects to be able to deliver, for the coming year, a DPU that is in line with its recent performance,’ A-Reit’s release stated.
The release also said that the A-Reit manager remains committed to pursuing quality and sustainable yield accretive investments, and expects results from asset management and investment strategies to underpin steady performance.
A-Reit’s units closed trading yesterday at $2.10, down one cent.
Source : Business Times - 19 Jul 2008
ASCENDAS Real Estate Investment Trust (A-Reit) yesterday reported net distributable income of $51.8 million for the first quarter ended June 30, 2008 - 15.9 per cent higher than for the corresponding period last year.
This follows a 19.6 per cent growth in gross revenue from the year-ago period to $92.5 million. The increase was due mainly to additional rental income from completed acquisitions and a development project.
The distribution per unit (DPU) for the quarter is 3.89 cents, up 15.4 per cent from the year-ago period. The DPU, to be paid out on Aug 27, represents an annualised yield of 7 per cent based on the closing price of $2.21 per A-Reit unit on June 30.
A-Reit had 86 properties with a total book value of around $4.5 billion as at June 30. Acquisitions in Q1 comprised 8 Loyang Way 1 for $25 million and 31 International Business Park for $246.8 million.
The portfolio’s overall occupancy rate stood at 98.6 per cent, against 97.2 per cent a year ago. For the business and science park and hi-tech industrial properties, renewal rates rose 63.9 per cent and 44.4 per cent respectively versus preceding contract rates.
This is due to ‘the continued healthy demand for quality suburban industrial and business space as well as the active leasing and investment activities conducted by the manager and its property management team’, said A-Reit manager Ascendas Funds Management (S)’s CEO and executive director Tan Ser Ping.
A-Reit’s weighted average borrowing cost for the portfolio was 3.16 per cent. To diversify funding sources, it recently took on a three-year committed revolving credit facility for $200 million, and is also incorporating a medium-term notes issuance facility.
Citing a CB Richard Ellis study, A-Reit said yesterday that rents and occupancy rates for hi-tech and business park space could continue to increase, but at a slower pace.
A-Reit also mentioned that it is difficult to gauge how much the Asian economy could be hit by the possible US recession and global inflationary pressure.
‘Despite the cautious outlook for the economy and barring any unforeseen events, the manager expects to be able to deliver, for the coming year, a DPU that is in line with its recent performance,’ A-Reit’s release stated.
The release also said that the A-Reit manager remains committed to pursuing quality and sustainable yield accretive investments, and expects results from asset management and investment strategies to underpin steady performance.
A-Reit’s units closed trading yesterday at $2.10, down one cent.
Source : Business Times - 19 Jul 2008
Big property stand-off
Posted on July 20, 2008 by lushhomeonline
Developers are not lowering their prices, and buyers are not biting
It is seven months into the year, and while new private home sales have picked up from the lows seen earlier in the year, sentiments remain weak.
More bad news emerged recently from the United States, sending stocks plunging. The same question remains on potential buyers’ minds: Is it time to buy?
Some developers started to launch mass- to mid-market projects last month, drawing the crowds back to showflats. These include huge ones such as the 616-unit Clover by the Park in Bishan, the 724-unit Livia in Pasir Ris and the 521-unit Kovan Residences next to Kovan MRT Station.
But while the crowds are back, few are biting. Most are very cautious when it comes to signing on the dotted line. ‘I visited showflats to get a feel of what’s available but prices seem high to me. If I buy now, I am afraid that prices will fall further,’ said a 32- year-old marketing manager.
Another potential buyer, who is 27, said he has decided to wait one to two more years after a recent futile search. Those new projects that he likes are beyond his reach.
Lowering prices
Singapore’s property market went up too much too quickly last year. Inevitably, there will be a correction or, as some market experts say, a possible reversal. Already, price growth has slowed to an estimated 0.4 per cent in the second quarter, down from 3.7 per cent in the first.
Private home prices rose 31.2 per cent last year, up from 10.2 per cent in 2006 and 3.9 per cent in 2005.
Mr Colin Tan, Chesterton International’s head of research and consultancy, said: ‘First, if you believe that there is such a thing called a property cycle, then the price decline is inevitable. The next question is: How deep will the decline be and how quickly will it reach the bottom?’
For now though, many developers are reluctant to lower prices.
‘Developers will wait a while before lowering prices,’ said DTZ’s executive director and regional head for consulting and research, Mrs Ong Choon Fah.
Said a seasoned market watcher: ‘Prices will fall. It’s a question of how much. The US is likely to be in recession and it will hurt the rest of the world.
‘Oil prices are rising. Inflation is a problem for Asia as it is unable to feed itself. This second half will tell you where things are going.’
Developers hold out
Market watchers say many developers do not want to lower prices since they are quite well-capitalised.
Some of them had sold units at the height of the boom last year, so they will try to hold on. Other developers say they have deep pockets and can hold.
Price supports cited by developers include high construction costs and a brighter long-term outlook.
Relatively low mortgage rates are also underpinning the market, said United Engineers chief executive Jackson Yap, who is launching a condo-like HDB project in Ang Mo Kio on Wednesday.
‘There will not be a widespread price drop but certain developers, the small ones or the non-traditional ones, may lower their prices,’ said the director of Savills Residential, Mr Ku Swee Yong.
Those that had launched earlier but have yet to get a contractor will be suffering, said the seasoned market watcher.
To hear developers put it, the lull is temporary as Asia remains very attractive to investors.
‘On the whole, people still believe in Asia,’ said Mrs Ong. ‘Singapore has reinvented itself and is very different from 10 years ago.’
What it lacks now is confidence as the market outlook is still uncertain, she added. The problem, some think, is once you start lowering prices, where does it end, said Mrs Ong. ‘Buyers may say that if you lower now, you may lower them again tomorrow.’
High-end prices have fallen nearly 10 per cent, according to Savills Singapore. Many say that if overall prices were to fall, the drop will likely not be steep.
How long will it last?
Some developers are hoping that the stand-off is short-lived as they quietly aim to launch their projects towards the end of the year. Some others are unsure and are prepared to ride out another quiet year or two.
‘If good news happens, such as a prolonged easing of oil prices, I am quite sure a property recovery will take place towards the year-end, albeit at a slower pace,’ said a developer who declined to be named.
‘But if nothing’s good in the market, I expect demand to remain sluggish and prices to ease further, especially the high-end ones.’
Well-located projects which are reasonably priced may be spared the poor demand, he said.
‘Singapore is unique compared to most countries in the sense that our property cycles tend to have a very wide turning radius, that is, they take a long time to turn unless there is a catastrophe such as Sars or 9/11,’ said Chesterton’s Mr Tan. ‘It is resisting any fall largely because long-term fundamentals are strong.
‘If there is no recession, I expect the stand-off to be a long one as prices have risen quite a bit. But incomes have not kept pace.’
Source : Sunday Times - 20 Jul 2008
Developers are not lowering their prices, and buyers are not biting
It is seven months into the year, and while new private home sales have picked up from the lows seen earlier in the year, sentiments remain weak.
More bad news emerged recently from the United States, sending stocks plunging. The same question remains on potential buyers’ minds: Is it time to buy?
Some developers started to launch mass- to mid-market projects last month, drawing the crowds back to showflats. These include huge ones such as the 616-unit Clover by the Park in Bishan, the 724-unit Livia in Pasir Ris and the 521-unit Kovan Residences next to Kovan MRT Station.
But while the crowds are back, few are biting. Most are very cautious when it comes to signing on the dotted line. ‘I visited showflats to get a feel of what’s available but prices seem high to me. If I buy now, I am afraid that prices will fall further,’ said a 32- year-old marketing manager.
Another potential buyer, who is 27, said he has decided to wait one to two more years after a recent futile search. Those new projects that he likes are beyond his reach.
Lowering prices
Singapore’s property market went up too much too quickly last year. Inevitably, there will be a correction or, as some market experts say, a possible reversal. Already, price growth has slowed to an estimated 0.4 per cent in the second quarter, down from 3.7 per cent in the first.
Private home prices rose 31.2 per cent last year, up from 10.2 per cent in 2006 and 3.9 per cent in 2005.
Mr Colin Tan, Chesterton International’s head of research and consultancy, said: ‘First, if you believe that there is such a thing called a property cycle, then the price decline is inevitable. The next question is: How deep will the decline be and how quickly will it reach the bottom?’
For now though, many developers are reluctant to lower prices.
‘Developers will wait a while before lowering prices,’ said DTZ’s executive director and regional head for consulting and research, Mrs Ong Choon Fah.
Said a seasoned market watcher: ‘Prices will fall. It’s a question of how much. The US is likely to be in recession and it will hurt the rest of the world.
‘Oil prices are rising. Inflation is a problem for Asia as it is unable to feed itself. This second half will tell you where things are going.’
Developers hold out
Market watchers say many developers do not want to lower prices since they are quite well-capitalised.
Some of them had sold units at the height of the boom last year, so they will try to hold on. Other developers say they have deep pockets and can hold.
Price supports cited by developers include high construction costs and a brighter long-term outlook.
Relatively low mortgage rates are also underpinning the market, said United Engineers chief executive Jackson Yap, who is launching a condo-like HDB project in Ang Mo Kio on Wednesday.
‘There will not be a widespread price drop but certain developers, the small ones or the non-traditional ones, may lower their prices,’ said the director of Savills Residential, Mr Ku Swee Yong.
Those that had launched earlier but have yet to get a contractor will be suffering, said the seasoned market watcher.
To hear developers put it, the lull is temporary as Asia remains very attractive to investors.
‘On the whole, people still believe in Asia,’ said Mrs Ong. ‘Singapore has reinvented itself and is very different from 10 years ago.’
What it lacks now is confidence as the market outlook is still uncertain, she added. The problem, some think, is once you start lowering prices, where does it end, said Mrs Ong. ‘Buyers may say that if you lower now, you may lower them again tomorrow.’
High-end prices have fallen nearly 10 per cent, according to Savills Singapore. Many say that if overall prices were to fall, the drop will likely not be steep.
How long will it last?
Some developers are hoping that the stand-off is short-lived as they quietly aim to launch their projects towards the end of the year. Some others are unsure and are prepared to ride out another quiet year or two.
‘If good news happens, such as a prolonged easing of oil prices, I am quite sure a property recovery will take place towards the year-end, albeit at a slower pace,’ said a developer who declined to be named.
‘But if nothing’s good in the market, I expect demand to remain sluggish and prices to ease further, especially the high-end ones.’
Well-located projects which are reasonably priced may be spared the poor demand, he said.
‘Singapore is unique compared to most countries in the sense that our property cycles tend to have a very wide turning radius, that is, they take a long time to turn unless there is a catastrophe such as Sars or 9/11,’ said Chesterton’s Mr Tan. ‘It is resisting any fall largely because long-term fundamentals are strong.
‘If there is no recession, I expect the stand-off to be a long one as prices have risen quite a bit. But incomes have not kept pace.’
Source : Sunday Times - 20 Jul 2008
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