Here's the first of four in our Condo Watch 2010 series.
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Singapore's Straits Times Index may rise to 3,180 by the end of next year, reflecting continued upgrades in earnings estimates, said Credit Suisse Group AG.
"Consensus earnings upgrades have helped trigger share price performance in 2009," Credit Suisse analyst Sean Quek wrote in a note dated yesterday. "We expect this trend to continue into 2010 on a more positive top-line and margins outlook."
The brokerage said it is "overweight" on transport, banking, media and property stocks.
Among its top picks are Singapore Airlines, DBS Group Holdings, Neptune Orient Lines, Hyflux and Parkway Holdings.
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Singapore stock market's post-recession rally still has 6–8 months to go, judging from historical performance, says CIMB.
And the investment bank has chosen property, commodities, conglomerates as favourite sectors heading into 2010. Top stock picks include Golden Agri-Resources (E5H.SG), Noble Group (N21.SG), Sembcorp Industries (U96.SG), UOB (U11.SG), CapitaMalls Asia (JS8.SG).
Kim Eng Research in a Dec 4 research report says: "We held a non-deal roadshow recently for Parkway in Tokyo which was well-received by funds. The investors have shown great interests in the Group's growth prospects in its overseas markets, the potential spin-off of its nursing college and the new hospital at Novena.
Singapore Exchange will make the compulsory the marking of all short-selling orders in the first half of 2010 to increase market transparency.
SGX says it has provided the technical specifications to its members to facilitate this effort.
In addition, statistics of aggregate short-selling activity for each individual security will be published daily.
DBS Vickers Securities in a Dec 7 research report says: "Following a brief earnings decline this year, CSE should return to its trademark growth next year. Our expectations stem from strong orderbook and the growth potential in Middle East & Australia. With $400 million worth of order wins in 9M09, CSE will secure estimated $520 million for full year 2009 compared with $425 million in 2008.
Kim Eng Research in a Dec 7 research report says: "Ying Li offers a cheap and excellent exposure to the prime grade commercial property market in one of the fastest growing cities in China, Chongqing. With 16 years of experience as a developer of iconic commercial buildings, strong balance sheet and firm banking relationships, Ying Li is poised to consolidate its position in Chongqing as the landlord of choice.
Daiwa has upgraded the Singapore stock market to "overweight" from "underweight" as it offers "low beta exposure to recovery trade".
This comes as the brokerage sees near-term upside bias for Asian ex-Japan equity markets amid supportive macro backdrop.
"Governments around the world will maintain policy flexibility and abundant liquidity in the coming months to reinforce the recovery process," adds Daiwa.
Singapore's Straits Times Index may rise to 3,180 by the end of next year, reflecting continued upgrades in earnings estimates, said Credit Suisse Group AG.
"Consensus earnings upgrades have helped trigger share price performance in 2009," Credit Suisse analyst Sean Quek wrote in a note dated yesterday. "We expect this trend to continue into 2010 on a more positive top-line and margins outlook."
The brokerage said it is "overweight" on transport, banking, media and property stocks.
Among its top picks are Singapore Airlines, DBS Group Holdings, Neptune Orient Lines, Hyflux and Parkway Holdings.
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SIA Engineering (S59.SG) rose 0.3% to hit a four-session high of $3, but gains have been accompanied by thin volume.
UOB KayHian says buying fatigue seems to be setting in after its recent outperformance, reports Dow Jones Newswires.
Shares of SIA Engineering have risen 16.3% since beginning 4Q09 vs the STI's 4.6% gain over same period, with volume gradually coming off after hitting year-to-date high of $3.08 last week.
Singapore Press Holdings (T39.SG) is gaining from faster-than-expected recovery in advertising spending, says UOB KayHian, which is maintaining its "buy" call on the property and media company with a $4.40 target price.
"Ad spend growth has finally turned positive," says the brokerage house. Based on the page count of its Saturday papers, growth of advertising spending is estimated to have improved from –16% in September and –7% in October to positive growth of 9% in November.
Singapore companies with expertise in deepwater oil & gas exploration and production such as Keppel Corp. (BN4.SG) and Sembcorp Marine (S51.SG) are likely to fare better in 2010 than those limited to operations in shallow waters such as KS Energy Services (578.SG), Swiber Holdings (AK3.SG), says OCBC Investment Research.
OCBC expects demand for semi-submersibles, drill ships made by Keppel, SembMarine to increase. "The push for even more technical vessels is likely to continue, benefiting companies that do not scrimp on research and development," says the bank.
谢国忠：迪拜惊魂
作者：谢国忠
来源：南方周末
谢国忠搜狐博客：http://xieguozhong.blog.sohu.com/
生活中无时不有意外。但在一个火爆的市场中,赌徒却厌恶任何意外。这次的迪拜债务危机来得真不是时候:去年全球金融泡沫破灭时,各国领导人、央行行长、分析师、基金经理以至中国的个人投资者都殚精竭虑、力挽狂谰。现在经济逐渐回暖,人人都期待着一个快乐的圣诞。毕竟,在经历了去年没有分红、笼罩在失业恐慌中的圣诞节后,我们也该过一个快乐圣诞了。
然而,迪拜危机发生了。真该死!
疑问像雪片般向我飞来。"这不是个大问题吧?"人们通常会这样问。"(影响)可能会持续几周"。在听到我的回答后,询问者匆匆挂断电话。
人人都有比讨论危机更需要做的事情。一年前,我们像走进了"世界末日",所有的银行与房地产商好像都濒临破产,多亏后来政府伸出援救之手才幸免于难。这一惨痛经历给我们的最大教训是:人生苦短,当及时行乐!
几周前,我在北京参加一个艺术品拍卖会。显而易见,艺术品市场受到了金融危机的重创:一年前,许多热拍品被停售。流动性枯竭,原先抢手的现代派绘画突然成了一文不值的垃圾。它们看着就像垃圾。现在市场回暖了,垃圾又光鲜亮丽了起来。在艺术品市场,人们的思维与股票投机者很相似:价格越高,看着越顺眼。
这次的迪拜危机在艺术品市场中也制造了些许恐慌。缺乏流动性时,上万亿的财富轻易蒸发,人们对这一惨痛经历记忆犹新。幸运的是,这次危机还没有严重到能把中国艺术品市场搅得天翻地覆的地步。
我之前去过迪拜十多次。每当西方人士,通常是英国人,在我面前称赞迪拜妙不可言时,我总会想到东西方的差异。对于我来说,迪拜太热了,就像在我小时候参观的钢厂里紧挨着那熔炉一样。星星点点的别墅半掩在沙漠中,不禁让人担心夜晚一场沙暴就会把它们永远深埋。
五年前,迪拜开始在金融市场上炙手可热。他们在CNN和CNBC上大作广告,称迪拜是国际金融中心。我还记得一位日本高管在CNN上操着一口带浓重日语口音的英语盛赞迪拜金融中心。几年前,迪拜世界买下美国一处港口资产,颇有点像二十年前日本购得帝国大厦。维多利亚和大卫·贝克汉姆夫妇在迪拜购置地产是当时的世界新闻,被解读为迪拜黄金时代的到来。(小贝夫妇在上海购置地产了吗?要是还没有,我们得加把劲了。)
迪拜故事是上一轮,而不是这一轮金融泡沫的一部分。是的,就是一个故事。在泡沫经济中,全都是故事而已。迪拜故事被成功推销给了金融市场。在高科技泡沫时代,风险投资为那些讲得好的故事投资；而在金融泡沫中,商业银行为迪拜这样的故事投资。回头看,一切都显得很傻。保守的商业银行何以会投资一个风投才会投资的故事,仅仅在市场上升时得到利息而在市场下行时却输得精光?
我不认为迪拜危机会刺破当前的泡沫。当前的市场泡沫是由政府援助吹起来的,表现在以下两点:(1)政府大量借款支持需求；(2)政府为那些投资于高风险资产的金融机构的债务提供担保。第一个举措使得大型经济体保持稳定,第二个举措为新兴市场提供动力。当通货膨胀迫使中央银行缩紧银根或是金融市场对政府还债能力失去信心之日,就是当前泡沫破裂之时。
迪拜神话破灭后,金融市场正忙于重塑信心。目前流行的说法是,迪拜的富邻居阿布扎比将会为迪拜提供财务支持,消除投资者的恐慌。这一说法有两个根据:(1)阿布扎比毗邻迪拜；(2)他们看上去很像,说不定还是表亲,所以,他们会互相为对方清偿债务。你会为你的堂亲还债吗?理性的人居然会相信这等胡说八道真是令人震惊!
迪拜人口为142万,其中只有29%为当地人,剩余71%是外国人,而外国人是不会留下来还迪拜所欠的外债的。据报道,迪拜外债高达1000亿美元,相当于每个孩子、工人、退休者承担着将近25万美元的债务。假设一家有五口人,每个家庭就背负着250万美元的债务(好像算得不对?)。如此一来,与其留在当地偿还外债,不如全家移民到澳大利亚。
银行如何应对这一状况呢?它们当然不能扣押迪拜,把它分批拍卖了。要真是如此,按迪拜法律,迪拜警察肯定会把这些银行家们送进现代监狱,这些监狱就是这些银行家出钱建的。所以,银行只能任迪拜摆布。唯一可能的解决办法是"重新协商还款时间",什么时候有钱了就什么时候还债。市场还会为危机的和平解决弹冠相庆,然后继续赌博!
眼下的泡沫大约会持续一年左右,泡沫破裂之时就是通货膨胀迫使央行缩紧银根或者债券市场对政府还债能力失去信心之日。前者更可能发生。考虑到通货膨胀通常滞后货币供给一年半或更长的时间,所以,在通胀积攒到可以刺破泡沫之前,还有一段时间。
这世界瞬息万变,一年半后泡沫才会破裂,这看起来是个好消息。大家都可以安下心来。
(作者为独立经济学家)
谢国忠搜狐博客：http://xieguozhong.blog.sohu.com/
欢迎光临搜狐财经博客群：http://blog.sohu.com/biz/
谢国忠：下轮经济危机在2012年
谢国忠搜狐博客：http://xieguozhong.blog.sohu.com/
朝鲜日报报道，摩根士丹利前亚太区首席经济学家谢国忠1日在记者座谈会上预测说："到2012年，各国央行将为阻止通货膨胀而大幅上调基准利率，从而导致全球流动性(现金流动)枯竭，当前形成的股票和房地产泡沫将受到巨大冲击。"
谢国忠长久以来一直在香港活动，因准确预测1997年亚洲金融危机、1999年因特网泡沫崩溃和2008年次级贷款危机而名震四方。
他预测说："各国央行将从明年开始提高基准利率，但只是装装样子，因此无法阻止两年后到来的通货膨胀现象。"他还预测说，以美国为例，当前年利率为0至0.25%，虽然明年会上调至1.5%，但仍然会维持1%左右的超低利率。
谢国忠预测说，其他国家也无法快速地将利率上调至可以在事前预防通货膨胀的程度。
他还预测说，明年的黄金价格可能会飙升至一盎司(31.1克)2000美元，国际油价也可能会暴涨至每桶100美元以上。
谢国忠还对中国经济提出警告说："当前中国经济看起来很繁荣，但不是因为4万亿元人民币的经济扶持政策，而是增加的10万亿元人民币贷款额流向了房地产市场。在依靠房地产领域的非生产性增长的情况下，如果到2012年提高利率并出现全球流动性枯竭现象，中国经济也会大幅下滑。"
谢国忠就韩国经济表示："韩国经济明年可以『保四』，但这并不那么容易。因为，主要出口国之一的美国的就业状况要想恢复还需要很长时间。"
谢国忠指出，韩国房价过高的现象也存在问题。他表示："韩国过高的房价不是『成功』的信号，而是暗示着『问题』的存在。在进入人口老龄化阶段以后，如果劳动人口减少，房价很有可能会下降。"
他建议称："为了未来一代，韩国现在应该将当前一代的储蓄投资到有收益的海外资产上，而不是国内房地产。"
谢国忠搜狐博客：http://xieguozhong.blog.sohu.com/
欢迎光临搜狐财经博客群：http://blog.sohu.com/biz/
