Thursday, 23 April 2009 10:05
SINCE THE BIG victory of incumbent President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s party in the recent parliamentary elections, foreign investors, forex and stock markets – and regional media like CNBC -- have focused attention on the country. In fact, the top performing market in the region is Jakarta. The JCI – Jakarta Composite Index – at 1,615 is up 19% since the start of the year, compared to a small decline by Bangkok’s SET Index (460), a 10% gain in the Bursa Malaysia Composite Index to 968 and a modest 4% up-tic in Singapore’s benchmark FSSTI. As some analysts see it, Indonesian democracy has come of age, and there is a semblance of political and economic stability in the vast, resource-rich archipelago.
In the past few days, analysts have woken up to rising palm oil prices, as a result of low palm oil inventory and poor harvests and investors have been inundated with a host of reports upgrading the plantation sector. “CPO price is likely to move higher before pull back (if any) in 2H09” notes Jakarta-based William Ie, an analyst at CLSA. “Palm oil supply remains tight as harvest remains poor and bad weather hampers fresh fruit bunch evacuation.” In addition, Malaysian palm oil inventory fell to 1.36 million tonnes in Mar this year, the lowest since Jul 07. What’s more, soybean supply is just as tight after a poor harvest in Argentina.
In a report dated Apr 21, Goldman Sachs upgraded Wilmar International to a buy: “In our view, Wilmar should be a core holding for long-term investors as it offers high quality, high-growth exposure to the palm oil sector given market leadership in its downstream businesses and strong organic growth potential.” Goldman Sachs has also turned positive on Indofood Agri and is adding the stock to its ‘conviction buy list’. According to the report, refinancing risk has diminished on the back of rising CPO prices and a liquid rupiah debt market. Analysts Patrick Tiah and Nikhil Bhandari estimate that every 10% increase in CPO prices boosts 2009E EPS by 21%. The duo have a 12-month price target of $4.10 for Wilmar, and $1.40 for Indofood Agri. On Wed, DBS Group Research raised its target prices for several plantation stocks. It has a buy on Kencana Agri, raising the target price from 14 cents to 20 cents. DBS expects Kencana’s mature areas to jump by 37%. “Taking into account the 20.5% q-o-q jump in spot prices, delivery of last quarter’s delayed CPO sales and the absence of a one-off IPO char, we expect higher earnings q-o-q” the report states.
CHART WATCH: MARKETS A TUMBLEThe local market took its lead from China’s A Shares this week. The Shanghai Composite Index ended Wednesday’s session at 2,461, down 2% from its intraday high and its forming a short term bearish engulfing pattern on the candlestick chart. Hong Kong was the main market that bore the brunt of the Chinese sell down. The Hang Seng Index has tumbled some 791 points from its high last week to 14,878 on Wed. Overbought pressures aside, market watchers attributed the downturn to the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) withdrawing Rmb165 billion of liquidity from the open market, including Rmb100 billion though the three-months’ REPO market. Also, market talk surfaced that the incremental loans figures from China’s big four banks could be a negative Rmb 90 billion for the month of April. Support for the Shanghai market is at 2,400, and its 200-day moving average is bottoming out at 2,304. Technically, the FSSTI was ripe for a correction, following almost six-weeks of non-stop advance. The index ended 43 points lower on Wed at 1,843. The minor uptrend that has developed since Mar 9 is intact, and the 50-day moving average currently at 1,680 has turned up. Immediate support is at 1,800, and a one-third retracement works out at 1,771. All in, markets had run up too much, and the PBOC provided the trigger for a much needed correction.
Friday, April 24, 2009
谢国忠：全球将处谷底数年 股市成现金碎纸机
（中国）和讯网 (2009-04-24)
编者按：谢国忠在《环球企业家》发表文章称，此刻不会有V字型的复苏，甚至很可能不会有恢复行情。市场和经济将在谷底运行数年。
全球市场和经济的萧条将持续经年，只有中国能够成为全球经济复苏的希望
全球股市在过去的几个月里出现了剧烈反弹—平均上涨了20%到30%。那些此前利润直线下滑的公司们，如今开始向外界传达对于未来的信心—当然，也就意味着投资者应该给他们更多的资金支持。不过我的建议是，暂时还是握紧你的现金，因为这只是一场回光返照。全球市场正在经历一轮绵延的熊市，这种形势将至少持续到2010年。如果政策制定者们将自己的注意力集中在几种刺激手段而不是改革重组上，萧条可能还会持续更长时间。
现金仍然为王。也许将来有一天，现金会由于央行们疯狂开动印钞机而变得不安全，那时候你会愿意将现金换成石油、黄金等资产。但在这样恶性通胀的情况发生之前，现金仍是安全的。
下挫的股市、房地产市场和大宗商品市场已经将很多人踢出了富豪俱乐部，但聪明的投资者在更早的时候就抽身而出，现在握有充裕的现金。在蛰伏数月之后，这些人渴望采取些行动。不过，那些难以按捺投资冲动的人们很可能在市场的反复中遭到损失。这种熊市中的反弹在接下来两年中还会出现很多次，而这会伤及那些此前躲过下跌行情的投资者。现在的股票市场已经变成现金碎纸机。
绝大部分天真的投资者仍然将股市看作财富的源泉，认为大跌之后总是伴随着买入的机会。但实际上，这样的美妙回忆恰恰成为引诱不谨慎的投资者重新入市的鸦片。过去三十年的股票市场发展，只能当作一种例外情况来考虑，而并不是常态。即使是巴菲特，也只不过是幸运地赶上了这个好时候。美国的上一次熊市持续了整整十年；日本股市如今的表现比25年前还要糟糕；韩国的股市也低于20年前。如果你相信长期而言股票市场为你创造财富，你得首先确保自己能活足够长的时间。
美国和欧洲已经陷入20年前在日本和韩国发生过的结构性熊市之中，原因有二：第一，对于之前过度消费型经济的纠偏将使经济增长持续低迷，因此可以预期经济总量在未来不会迅速变大；第二，还有诸如老龄化社会等更加紧迫的问题需要处理。
美国的银行业救助计划是本轮反弹的催化剂，而与前任财长鲍尔森相较，现在的政策并没有任何值得注意的不同之处。市场之所以出现了不同的反应，是因为此前的恐慌情绪已经持续了太长时间，市场心态已经调整到可以将这种计划向积极方面解读了。
美联储将斥资1.15万亿美元购买由政府担保的债券这一决定成为导致市场乐观主义的另一原因。它们的主要目的是保持抵押贷款的低利率，以稳定美国住房市场。但是，增发货币来保持利率低位只能在很短的时间内奏效，而最终则会导致美元崩溃。
本质上，美国正在依靠财政泡沫来保证经济的活力。正如IT、住房和抵押债券市场曾经发生过的事情一样，美元的泡沫也终将破灭。我认为美国资产的价格将随着财政泡沫的破灭而最终落入谷底，或许是在2010年。
过去二十年的市场经验告诉投资者，应该趁市场看起来将要触底的时候买入，因为此时通常伴随着一个V字反转的行情。但是如果你认为现在也会如此，那就犯了一个大错：此刻不会有V字型的复苏，甚至很可能不会有恢复行情。市场和经济将在谷底运行数年。而下次牛市的唯一希望，可能是中国拾起美国丢失的地位。中国有着将可以领导全球的经济规模和发展速度。但中国也必须改变其以出口和投资为导向的经济模式，并采取三项改革措施：
1. 放开人民币汇率控制，开放资本账户并将所得税降至目前的25%的水平。这些措施将吸引全球的富豪和天才们来到中国，上海将成为超过伦敦和纽约的全球金融中心。
2. 将政府所持有的国有股票还富于民。这一措施的首要影响是能够创造5000亿人民币的居民消费，并进一步促进经济的良性运行。
3. 设计25座超大城市，每个能容纳3000万人口。这些城市将被允许自行发债以支持其发展，这样，这些城市就能将住房价格维持在低位，并借此吸引购买者。同时，政府应该设立相应的抵押贷款方案让城市的建造者—农民工能够买得起自己建造的住宅。
中国拥有在20年之内变成一个发达国家的巨大潜力。下一个牛市也将来临，但催化剂不是华盛顿正在采取的那些措施，而是中国。（作者为独立经济学家 来源：环球企业家）
编者按：谢国忠在《环球企业家》发表文章称，此刻不会有V字型的复苏，甚至很可能不会有恢复行情。市场和经济将在谷底运行数年。
全球市场和经济的萧条将持续经年，只有中国能够成为全球经济复苏的希望
全球股市在过去的几个月里出现了剧烈反弹—平均上涨了20%到30%。那些此前利润直线下滑的公司们，如今开始向外界传达对于未来的信心—当然，也就意味着投资者应该给他们更多的资金支持。不过我的建议是，暂时还是握紧你的现金，因为这只是一场回光返照。全球市场正在经历一轮绵延的熊市，这种形势将至少持续到2010年。如果政策制定者们将自己的注意力集中在几种刺激手段而不是改革重组上，萧条可能还会持续更长时间。
现金仍然为王。也许将来有一天，现金会由于央行们疯狂开动印钞机而变得不安全，那时候你会愿意将现金换成石油、黄金等资产。但在这样恶性通胀的情况发生之前，现金仍是安全的。
下挫的股市、房地产市场和大宗商品市场已经将很多人踢出了富豪俱乐部，但聪明的投资者在更早的时候就抽身而出，现在握有充裕的现金。在蛰伏数月之后，这些人渴望采取些行动。不过，那些难以按捺投资冲动的人们很可能在市场的反复中遭到损失。这种熊市中的反弹在接下来两年中还会出现很多次，而这会伤及那些此前躲过下跌行情的投资者。现在的股票市场已经变成现金碎纸机。
绝大部分天真的投资者仍然将股市看作财富的源泉，认为大跌之后总是伴随着买入的机会。但实际上，这样的美妙回忆恰恰成为引诱不谨慎的投资者重新入市的鸦片。过去三十年的股票市场发展，只能当作一种例外情况来考虑，而并不是常态。即使是巴菲特，也只不过是幸运地赶上了这个好时候。美国的上一次熊市持续了整整十年；日本股市如今的表现比25年前还要糟糕；韩国的股市也低于20年前。如果你相信长期而言股票市场为你创造财富，你得首先确保自己能活足够长的时间。
美国和欧洲已经陷入20年前在日本和韩国发生过的结构性熊市之中，原因有二：第一，对于之前过度消费型经济的纠偏将使经济增长持续低迷，因此可以预期经济总量在未来不会迅速变大；第二，还有诸如老龄化社会等更加紧迫的问题需要处理。
美国的银行业救助计划是本轮反弹的催化剂，而与前任财长鲍尔森相较，现在的政策并没有任何值得注意的不同之处。市场之所以出现了不同的反应，是因为此前的恐慌情绪已经持续了太长时间，市场心态已经调整到可以将这种计划向积极方面解读了。
美联储将斥资1.15万亿美元购买由政府担保的债券这一决定成为导致市场乐观主义的另一原因。它们的主要目的是保持抵押贷款的低利率，以稳定美国住房市场。但是，增发货币来保持利率低位只能在很短的时间内奏效，而最终则会导致美元崩溃。
本质上，美国正在依靠财政泡沫来保证经济的活力。正如IT、住房和抵押债券市场曾经发生过的事情一样，美元的泡沫也终将破灭。我认为美国资产的价格将随着财政泡沫的破灭而最终落入谷底，或许是在2010年。
过去二十年的市场经验告诉投资者，应该趁市场看起来将要触底的时候买入，因为此时通常伴随着一个V字反转的行情。但是如果你认为现在也会如此，那就犯了一个大错：此刻不会有V字型的复苏，甚至很可能不会有恢复行情。市场和经济将在谷底运行数年。而下次牛市的唯一希望，可能是中国拾起美国丢失的地位。中国有着将可以领导全球的经济规模和发展速度。但中国也必须改变其以出口和投资为导向的经济模式，并采取三项改革措施：
1. 放开人民币汇率控制，开放资本账户并将所得税降至目前的25%的水平。这些措施将吸引全球的富豪和天才们来到中国，上海将成为超过伦敦和纽约的全球金融中心。
2. 将政府所持有的国有股票还富于民。这一措施的首要影响是能够创造5000亿人民币的居民消费，并进一步促进经济的良性运行。
3. 设计25座超大城市，每个能容纳3000万人口。这些城市将被允许自行发债以支持其发展，这样，这些城市就能将住房价格维持在低位，并借此吸引购买者。同时，政府应该设立相应的抵押贷款方案让城市的建造者—农民工能够买得起自己建造的住宅。
中国拥有在20年之内变成一个发达国家的巨大潜力。下一个牛市也将来临，但催化剂不是华盛顿正在采取的那些措施，而是中国。（作者为独立经济学家 来源：环球企业家）
CST DJ MARKET TALK: STI May Edge Lower On Nikkei Cue
24 Apr 2009 08:40 CST DJ MARKET TALK: STI May Edge Lower On Nikkei Cue; 1814 Support 0040 GMT [Dow Jones] Singapore shares may edge lower, choppy trade expected as regional indexes give bearish steer (Nikkei down 0.8), overshadowing Wall Street lead, which ended higher after volatile session (DJIA +0.9%). "The STI is going to lack direction in the near-term, on the one hand buyers are holding off while they wait to see the results of the U.S. bank stress tests in early May, but on the other we do see bargain-hunting when it pulls back," says trader at local brokerage. Keppel Corp. (BN4.SG) may be bright spot after 1Q09 results beat forecasts, but Keppel Land (K17.SG) likely lower on news of rights issue. STI closed +0.9% at 1859.98 yesterday; support tipped at this week's low of 1814, resistance tipped at 10-day moving average of 1876. (KIG)
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
謝國忠：第二次衰退 ( 2009/04/17 )
二○○九年初，我曾撰文指出，全球經濟將在今年下半年止穩，並在二季度開始出現熊市反彈。我當時認為，滯脹將是未來幾年全球經濟的主要特點。現在，我仍然堅持這樣的觀點。不過，熊市反彈來得比我預期的要早。原因是主要國家的政府已經為投機實施補貼，它們相信，主要的問題是流動性短缺和信心喪失。因此，如果投資者和投機客被拉回「遊樂場」，世界經濟就將回到良性迴圈中。但是，我認為，這些舉措將導致全球經濟在二○一○年出現第二次衰退。
政策制定者對他們的刺激計畫仍不起作用感到沮喪。它們的政府也已經捅下了很高的財政赤字。但是，全球的就業、企業家信心和消費者信心都在持續惡化。主要經濟體很可能在二○○九年一季度遭遇了類似二○○八年四季度那樣的收縮。
這種全球性經濟衰退是前所未有的。更重要的是，人們很難看到衰退結束之後，世界經濟將如何增長。如果歷史重演，在眼下如此嚴重的經濟衰退之後，政治危機可能爆發。
政府救市三部曲
當經濟危機引發政治危機，經濟快速復甦將會化為泡影。由於陷入絕望，各國政府將試圖直接提振資產價格，或者通過刺激觀望的投機者重新加入遊戲的方式，來提振資產價格。
美國政府試圖提振資產價格的第二步是「蓋特納計畫」，它試圖剝離美國問題銀行的「有毒資產」。實際上，這項計畫就是通過補貼投機而提振有毒資產的價格。按照這一「美麗計畫」，對有毒資產的需求應該會迅速增長。不過，到目前為止，這類資產的價格還沒有大幅增長。
美國政府試圖提振資產價格的第三步，是改變美國財務會計準則委員制定的按市值計價原則。現在，美國金融機構得到許可，如果它們認為市場失靈，可以不以市值對其資產計價，而是根據其「判斷」。也許市場未必能對資產完美定價，但是，誰能做得更好呢？改變按市值計價的原則，就等於允許問題銀行不再對壞資產計提損失。這樣一來，問題銀行的股價就會大幅上升。
美國鼓勵銀行增加信貸
除了美國制定政策以提振資產價格，大多數主要經濟體都在鼓勵它們的銀行增加信貸。
「鼓勵」是什麼意思？在正常情況下，銀行借貸是在平衡風險和收益之後，爭取利潤最大化。政府鼓勵它們放貸，實際上就是向它們施壓，降低信貸標準，承擔更多風險，卻獲得同樣或者更少的回報。這種政策，實際上是用未來的壞帳換取今天的需求。支援這種措施的論調是，如果每家銀行都借錢，經濟改善，就會減少壞帳發生。但是，這種「免費午餐」式的想法，只會通過製造另一個泡沫而收一時之效，卻會在未來引發更大的危機。
我認為，二○一○年，泡沫破滅的速度會超過政府製造泡沫的速度。資產價格很有可能再次下跌。通脹可能會成為一個問題，它將導致國債和其他政府債券價格下挫。政府債券是最後破滅的泡沫，當這個泡沫遭到擠壓，其他的資產價格將會見底。這將使目前政府充入泡沫中的空氣釋放出來。屆時，全球經濟會第二次下挫。
二○○六年九月，在國際貨幣基金組織（ＩＭＦ）和世界銀行新加坡年會上，我預測二○○七年出現金融危機，二○○八年出現經濟危機，此後會出現滯脹。雖然滯脹的預測還沒有應驗，但是，各國政府和中央銀行正在執行的政策，堅定了我的想法——滯脹會困擾全球經濟很多年。
汽車和電子行業是兩大全球產能過剩的行業。汽車行業產能過剩已經很久了。不過，這個問題卻被信貸泡沫虛增需求所掩蓋，因為購買者受到零首付零利率的刺激，頻繁換購新車。如果政府用納稅人的錢支援它們的汽車公司，通縮就會持續。不過，奧巴馬政府目前不願意這麼做。
電子行業習慣於通縮了。通常，好的通縮會支援產量增加，產品價格下降。但是，現在的通縮不是好的通縮。在沒有政府施壓的情況下，這個行業正在自行收縮，這個過程將隨著產能削減而很快結束。
熊市反彈是零和遊戲
除了二○一○年經濟第二次下挫和未來出現滯脹，我還想評論一下熊市反彈的特徵。在一個持續多年的熊市裡，股市時常出現較大反彈。這些反彈的幅度，可能從底部上漲四○％。顯然，這樣的熊市反彈令人垂涎。投資者很難做到只觀望、不入市。
我不是反對在熊市反彈中掙錢，但是，必須記住，熊市反彈是零和遊戲，甚至還是負和遊戲。在每一次反彈後，市場可能會跌得更狠，一個人的利潤其實是另一個人的損失。在熊市反彈中投資，把握時機是最重要的，早進早出是最基本的原則，最有害的是追漲殺跌；當市場反彈了三○％，就不要追漲殺跌了，這對你的金融資產健康非常不利。
（本文與中國北京︽財經︾雜誌二三五期同步刊出）
本文詳情及圖表請見《先探投資週刊》1513期
Monday, April 20, 2009
Citi forecasts Singapore’s recession to be over by year-end, has 2,400 as 12-month STI target
Monday, 20 April 2009 17:14
CALL IT WHATEVER you want — green shoots, a new spring or even light at the end of the tunnel.
Clearly, even though the real economy remains mired in a deep recession and we still have two or more quarters of fairly rough period ahead, the long-term sentiment is starting to change.
Even Citigroup, the investment bank that first turned fairly bearish on Singapore’s economy a year ago long before its other peers, now says Singapore’s recession will end by the fourth quarter of this year. It is advising its clients to get ready to buy.
Indeed, it has a 12-month 2,400 target for the benchmark STI. That’s over 23% gain from current levels. And the market has already gained nearly 30% from its early March lows.In a new report issued over the weekend, Citigroup strategist Chua Hak Bin and his team forecast that Singapore’s economy will shrink 8.2% in current April-June second quarter and 6.2% in the July-Sept third quarter “with a good chance of positive growth” of up to 0.3% in last quarter.
“Aggressive global fiscal and monetary easing, coupled with Singapore government’s fiscal measures, and the opening of two integrated resorts by early 2010 will support the recovery,” Citi’s strategist Chua and his team wrote in the note.
They explain that among the reason they are turning positive on the Singapore market include stabilising economic indicators, consensus 12-month forward STI earnings growth numbers having fallen 23% and more attractive valuations. Moreover, they say the downside risks for the Singapore dollar look limited following its recent devaluation by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and its maintenance of a neutral bias.
Chua and his team of strategists are advising clients to “buy” on upcoming pullbacks. They concede the market may pull back with STI dropping to 1,700 but say the likelihood of re-testing 1,460 reached in early March is now fairly low.
Citi is recommending clients to “buy” stocks like DBS, SGX, UOB, Keppel Corp., Wilmar and ST Engineering and “sell” Singapore Airlines and Capitaland.
CALL IT WHATEVER you want — green shoots, a new spring or even light at the end of the tunnel.
Clearly, even though the real economy remains mired in a deep recession and we still have two or more quarters of fairly rough period ahead, the long-term sentiment is starting to change.
Even Citigroup, the investment bank that first turned fairly bearish on Singapore’s economy a year ago long before its other peers, now says Singapore’s recession will end by the fourth quarter of this year. It is advising its clients to get ready to buy.
Indeed, it has a 12-month 2,400 target for the benchmark STI. That’s over 23% gain from current levels. And the market has already gained nearly 30% from its early March lows.In a new report issued over the weekend, Citigroup strategist Chua Hak Bin and his team forecast that Singapore’s economy will shrink 8.2% in current April-June second quarter and 6.2% in the July-Sept third quarter “with a good chance of positive growth” of up to 0.3% in last quarter.
“Aggressive global fiscal and monetary easing, coupled with Singapore government’s fiscal measures, and the opening of two integrated resorts by early 2010 will support the recovery,” Citi’s strategist Chua and his team wrote in the note.
They explain that among the reason they are turning positive on the Singapore market include stabilising economic indicators, consensus 12-month forward STI earnings growth numbers having fallen 23% and more attractive valuations. Moreover, they say the downside risks for the Singapore dollar look limited following its recent devaluation by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and its maintenance of a neutral bias.
Chua and his team of strategists are advising clients to “buy” on upcoming pullbacks. They concede the market may pull back with STI dropping to 1,700 but say the likelihood of re-testing 1,460 reached in early March is now fairly low.
Citi is recommending clients to “buy” stocks like DBS, SGX, UOB, Keppel Corp., Wilmar and ST Engineering and “sell” Singapore Airlines and Capitaland.
Keppel, Sembcorp Marine ratings upgraded at Citigroup
Monday, 20 April 2009 09:22
Keppel Corp. and SembCorp Marine, the world’s two-largest builders of oil rigs, were upgraded at Citigroup Inc., which cited “positive data points.”
Keppel was raised to “buy” from “hold,” while Sembcorp Marine was raised to “hold” from “sell,” Citigroup said.
Separately, the brokerage lowered its recommendation on SembCorp Industries to “hold” from “buy” and cut its rating on Cosco Corp. Singapore to “sell” from “hold”.
Keppel Corp. and SembCorp Marine, the world’s two-largest builders of oil rigs, were upgraded at Citigroup Inc., which cited “positive data points.”
Keppel was raised to “buy” from “hold,” while Sembcorp Marine was raised to “hold” from “sell,” Citigroup said.
Separately, the brokerage lowered its recommendation on SembCorp Industries to “hold” from “buy” and cut its rating on Cosco Corp. Singapore to “sell” from “hold”.
Sunday, April 19, 2009
马宝山：“新新加坡”两三年内将渐成形
（2009-04-18）
● 吴慧敏
尽管经济前景不明，新加坡仍应持续重新打造工作。
国家发展部长马宝山说，过去几年的策划工作，其实已开始看到成效，一个“新”的新加坡正逐渐形成，国人能在未来两三年看到更多更明显的变化：
●市区正逐渐形成一道崭新的地平线景观（skyline）
“双螺旋桥”（The Double Helix）、艺术公园(Art Park)和滨海湾公园和步行环道，将在2011年前陆续完工。滨海湾金沙综合度假胜地(IR)和第一期的滨海湾金融中心（MBFC）也预计在明年前启用。
马宝山说：“这不但改变地平线景观，也为许多国人制造就业机会，并带来商机。”
政府已在滨海湾投入将近57亿元作为基础设施，它计划继续投入更多资源来加强滨海湾与旧市区的衔接，包括建造公共服务设施隧道、桥梁、步行道、街道和地铁系统。
本地最旺的购物大街——乌节路也将注入新的活力。政府在2005年和2006年发售的三幅地段，未来几个月内将出现三座霸型商场—乌节弯（Ion Orchard）、乌节中央城（Orchard Central）和313@Somerset。
乌节中央城设有路边咖啡厅，让人们在逛街逛累时停下来“叹咖啡”；313@ Somerset则辟有270公尺长食街。多美歌地铁站上端的空地也重新开放，成为露天雕塑剧场和餐饮汇点，可举办表演和其他公共活动。
●新一代区域商业中心正在形成
马宝山说，虽然经济不景，政府还是会启动裕廊湖区发展计划。
那里的交通将在三年内进一步改善，裕廊东地铁站提升工程已展开，预计后年完成。到时，这个地铁站的乘客容量和地铁趟次都将增加。巴士转换站也将在一两年内重新发展，以更好地衔接地铁站。政府也会尽快兴建新的道路和公共服务设施，以应付区内新发展。
马宝山相信，让裕廊湖畔既是理想住宅区、也是精彩消闲区的梦想很快会实现。他透露，公用事业局已展开工程，通过安装行人板道和康乐设施，加强湖畔北部和西部的设施。
“裕廊湖将在明年出现改变，人们将能在湖上进行各种水上活动。裕廊中央医院和新的科学馆也已经展开策划工程，前者预计2015年完工，后者可在几年后落成。”
●新加坡将成为精彩的大型乐园
马宝山说，新加坡将成为精彩的大型乐园，拥有多种康乐与休闲选择。“滨海湾公园正迅速成形，第一阶段工程预计后年完工。新加坡的公园连道将在未来五至十年增加至300公里，在整个岛国形成一条无间断的公园环道。”
他透露，新加坡也会增添更多旅游景点，例如动物园和夜间动物园内将增添河上探险游。这个全新景点预计在2011年启用。
南部濒水地区也会在武吉慈明(Bukit Chermin)和港湾城一带增添更多休闲景点。由于亨德申波浪桥（Henderson Waves）和亚历山大拱桥（Alexandra Arch）非常成功，市建局已决定建造兴建公园连道和木板走道，连接拉柏多公园与南部山脊，这个计划后年完成。
在圣淘沙，名胜世界明年开业，为整个地区带来许多改变。除环球影城主题公园（Universal Studios），这家综合娱乐城也设有海事博物院和海洋生物园，不同的场地也将展开多个表演活动。
圣淘沙发展机构也会引进新的景点，包括模拟滑浪和跳伞经验的Wave House和Sky Venture设施。
多个组屋区面貌将改变
马宝山说，国人居住的环境也将显著改变，例如榜鹅水道工程已展开、第一批绿色组屋“绿馨苑”（Treelodge@Punggol）预计明年底完工，其他主要新镇包括女皇镇杜生（Dawson）、金文泰和义顺也会陆续被注入新的活力。
市建局也在海岸发展新的风景步行区，例如4.9公里长的榜鹅濒海步行道，衔接榜鹅东和榜鹅坊的体育和康乐设施，形成东北公园环道。
他透露，兀兰不久后将设有全新的濒水康乐设施，全长1.5公里、沿着兀兰海岸建造的公园占地9公顷，面对柔佛海峡。
● 吴慧敏
尽管经济前景不明，新加坡仍应持续重新打造工作。
国家发展部长马宝山说，过去几年的策划工作，其实已开始看到成效，一个“新”的新加坡正逐渐形成，国人能在未来两三年看到更多更明显的变化：
●市区正逐渐形成一道崭新的地平线景观（skyline）
“双螺旋桥”（The Double Helix）、艺术公园(Art Park)和滨海湾公园和步行环道，将在2011年前陆续完工。滨海湾金沙综合度假胜地(IR)和第一期的滨海湾金融中心（MBFC）也预计在明年前启用。
马宝山说：“这不但改变地平线景观，也为许多国人制造就业机会，并带来商机。”
政府已在滨海湾投入将近57亿元作为基础设施，它计划继续投入更多资源来加强滨海湾与旧市区的衔接，包括建造公共服务设施隧道、桥梁、步行道、街道和地铁系统。
本地最旺的购物大街——乌节路也将注入新的活力。政府在2005年和2006年发售的三幅地段，未来几个月内将出现三座霸型商场—乌节弯（Ion Orchard）、乌节中央城（Orchard Central）和313@Somerset。
乌节中央城设有路边咖啡厅，让人们在逛街逛累时停下来“叹咖啡”；313@ Somerset则辟有270公尺长食街。多美歌地铁站上端的空地也重新开放，成为露天雕塑剧场和餐饮汇点，可举办表演和其他公共活动。
●新一代区域商业中心正在形成
马宝山说，虽然经济不景，政府还是会启动裕廊湖区发展计划。
那里的交通将在三年内进一步改善，裕廊东地铁站提升工程已展开，预计后年完成。到时，这个地铁站的乘客容量和地铁趟次都将增加。巴士转换站也将在一两年内重新发展，以更好地衔接地铁站。政府也会尽快兴建新的道路和公共服务设施，以应付区内新发展。
马宝山相信，让裕廊湖畔既是理想住宅区、也是精彩消闲区的梦想很快会实现。他透露，公用事业局已展开工程，通过安装行人板道和康乐设施，加强湖畔北部和西部的设施。
“裕廊湖将在明年出现改变，人们将能在湖上进行各种水上活动。裕廊中央医院和新的科学馆也已经展开策划工程，前者预计2015年完工，后者可在几年后落成。”
●新加坡将成为精彩的大型乐园
马宝山说，新加坡将成为精彩的大型乐园，拥有多种康乐与休闲选择。“滨海湾公园正迅速成形，第一阶段工程预计后年完工。新加坡的公园连道将在未来五至十年增加至300公里，在整个岛国形成一条无间断的公园环道。”
他透露，新加坡也会增添更多旅游景点，例如动物园和夜间动物园内将增添河上探险游。这个全新景点预计在2011年启用。
南部濒水地区也会在武吉慈明(Bukit Chermin)和港湾城一带增添更多休闲景点。由于亨德申波浪桥（Henderson Waves）和亚历山大拱桥（Alexandra Arch）非常成功，市建局已决定建造兴建公园连道和木板走道，连接拉柏多公园与南部山脊，这个计划后年完成。
在圣淘沙，名胜世界明年开业，为整个地区带来许多改变。除环球影城主题公园（Universal Studios），这家综合娱乐城也设有海事博物院和海洋生物园，不同的场地也将展开多个表演活动。
圣淘沙发展机构也会引进新的景点，包括模拟滑浪和跳伞经验的Wave House和Sky Venture设施。
多个组屋区面貌将改变
马宝山说，国人居住的环境也将显著改变，例如榜鹅水道工程已展开、第一批绿色组屋“绿馨苑”（Treelodge@Punggol）预计明年底完工，其他主要新镇包括女皇镇杜生（Dawson）、金文泰和义顺也会陆续被注入新的活力。
市建局也在海岸发展新的风景步行区，例如4.9公里长的榜鹅濒海步行道，衔接榜鹅东和榜鹅坊的体育和康乐设施，形成东北公园环道。
他透露，兀兰不久后将设有全新的濒水康乐设施，全长1.5公里、沿着兀兰海岸建造的公园占地9公顷，面对柔佛海峡。
Friday, April 17, 2009
Economy may shrink by record 9% as trade collapses
Tags: Barclays Capital Chartered Semiconductor Mfg Creative Technology Forecast Singapore Pte Singapore Airlines Singapore Press Holdings
Tuesday, 14 April 2009 13:17
Singapore said its economy may shrink as much as 9% this year, the most since independence in 1965, as a deepening global recession drives down exports and manufacturing, reported Bloomberg. The economy may shrink 6% to 9%, the trade ministry said in a statement today, reducing its forecast for the third time since early January. The government previously predicted a contraction of as much as 5%.The central bank said it would adjust the trading range for the Singapore dollar, effectively lowering the band for the first time since 2003 to revive growth. Singapore stocks fell after exports tumbled for an 11th month amid a slump that’s forced Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing to fire workers and the government to reduce taxes and subsidize jobs. “The situation is really dire and the central bank’s policy will improve sentiment and help the economy,” said Vishnu Varathan, an economist at Forecast Singapore Pte. “The wider band gives them the flexibility to weaken the currency now, and steer it to strengthen when things get better.” The worst global economic slump since World War II has pushed Asia’s trade-dependent nations into the region’s deepest slowdown in more than a decade. Thailand’s economy may suffer a bigger contraction in 2009 than the 3% decline initially forecast after anti-government protests led to a state of emergency being declared in Bangkok, Finance Minister Korn Chatikavanij said today.
Singapore’s Straits Times Index of stocks declined 0.7% to 1,863.43 as of 12:08 pm, snapping a two-day, 5.2% advance. CURRENCY BANDThe Monetary Authority of Singapore, which uses the exchange rate to manage price stability, said the local dollar had been trading at the lower end of its target range since October. The band will now be “re-centred” to reflect recent levels, it said. “The re-centring effectively translates to roughly a 1.7% devaluation of the Singapore dollar on a trade-weighted basis,” said Wai Ho Leong, a regional economist at Barclays Capital in Singapore. That would be the first effective lowering of the currency band since July 2003, he said. Southeast Asia’s worst-performing currency this year rose 1.1% today after the central bank said there’s no reason for an “undue weakening”. Singapore stopped favoring gains in the local dollar in October and the central bank said today it will continue to seek neither appreciation nor depreciation. FIRST QUARTERSingapore’s gross domestic product declined an annualised 19.7% last quarter from the previous three months, after shrinking 16.4% between October and December, the trade ministry said today. The contraction was more than double the 9.6% drop predicted in a Bloomberg survey, and the biggest since at least 1975. “The global economy is expected to remain weak in the coming quarters,” the trade ministry said today. “While there are tentative signs of some stabilization in the housing, financial and manufacturing sectors in the U.S., they do not point to a clear turnaround in economic activity.” Singapore’s efforts to prevent job losses by handing out cash to companies haven’t stopped manufacturers such as Chartered and music-player maker Creative Technology from firing workers. Companies probably fired more than 10,000 workers in the first three months of 2009, The Straits Times cited Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong as saying last week. Singapore Airlines has frozen pay and asked employees to take unpaid leave, and publisher Singapore Press Holdings has cut wages.
City Developments sells $190m of homes
Friday, 17 April 2009 07:58
City Developments sold $190 million of homes at The Arte at Thomson, a development project in a suburb of Singapore, the local press reported.
The property developer has sold 150 homes at the project, which has an average price of $880 a square foot, since March 21. The development comprises 336 units, of which 180 have been offered for sale, the report said.
City Developments is offering an interest absorption plan that allows homebuyers to pay just 20% of the property’s cost and defer the remainder until the project is completed.
Buyers are still required to take up a housing loan when making the purchase.
City Developments sold $190 million of homes at The Arte at Thomson, a development project in a suburb of Singapore, the local press reported.
The property developer has sold 150 homes at the project, which has an average price of $880 a square foot, since March 21. The development comprises 336 units, of which 180 have been offered for sale, the report said.
City Developments is offering an interest absorption plan that allows homebuyers to pay just 20% of the property’s cost and defer the remainder until the project is completed.
Buyers are still required to take up a housing loan when making the purchase.
CapitaMall's Q1 distributable income rises 8% to $62.6m
Friday, 17 April 2009 08:53
CapitaMall Trust, Singapore’s biggest property trust, said its distributable income climbed 8% in the first quarter after it added a property and completed improvements at two other malls, reported Bloomberg.
Distributable income rose to $62.6 million for the three months ended March 31, compared with S$58 million a year earlier, the trust said in a statement today to the Singapore stock exchange. Distribution per share fell to 1.97 cents a share from 3.48 cents a year earlier after it sold stock in a rights offer during the quarter, the statement said.
CapitaMall is more cautious on its outlook even after rental renewal rates rose 1.3% during the quarter. Retail sales have declined for five straight months in Singapore and the city-state’s government has estimated the economy may contract by up to an unprecedented 9% this year, raising concern shoppers will further curtail spending at the trust’s malls.
“The revenue outlook for CapitaMall will depend on the extent, depth and duration of the economic recession and financial uncertainties on CapitaMall’s tenants as well as demand for retail space,” Lim Beng Chee, chief executive officer of the trust’s manager, said in the statement.
CapitaMall has retreated 0.6% in Singapore this year. CapitaLand, Southeast Asia’s largest developer and the trust’s parent, has gained 11%, while the benchmark Straits Times Index rose 7.4% during the period. Today’s earnings were released before the start of trading.
During the quarter, the trust raised $1.23 billion by selling shares to existing investors to help repay some of its borrowings as the global financial crisis tightens the availability of credit.
Income during the quarter included rents from The Atrium@Orchard, a property located along Singapore’s Orchard Road shopping belt that CapitaMall bought on Aug 15. It also completed “asset enhancement initiatives” at Sembawang Shopping Centre and Lot One Shoppers’ Mall, the trust said.
For the year, CapitaMall has “locked in” more than 90% of 2008’s gross revenue, Lim said in the statement, citing its leases as of March 31.
The trust plans to start enhancement works at Jurong Entertainment Centre, a property that was closed in November, by the end of the year, CapitaMall said.
It’s also seeking to start work on integrating Atrium@Orchard with Plaza Singapura, a neighboring property also owned by the trust, by the end of 2010, the statement said.
Retail rents across Singapore fell 0.6% in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, a second straight decline, the Urban Redevelopment Authority said on Jan 23. The government agency is scheduled to release data for the three months ended March 31 later this month.
CapitaMall Trust, Singapore’s biggest property trust, said its distributable income climbed 8% in the first quarter after it added a property and completed improvements at two other malls, reported Bloomberg.
Distributable income rose to $62.6 million for the three months ended March 31, compared with S$58 million a year earlier, the trust said in a statement today to the Singapore stock exchange. Distribution per share fell to 1.97 cents a share from 3.48 cents a year earlier after it sold stock in a rights offer during the quarter, the statement said.
CapitaMall is more cautious on its outlook even after rental renewal rates rose 1.3% during the quarter. Retail sales have declined for five straight months in Singapore and the city-state’s government has estimated the economy may contract by up to an unprecedented 9% this year, raising concern shoppers will further curtail spending at the trust’s malls.
“The revenue outlook for CapitaMall will depend on the extent, depth and duration of the economic recession and financial uncertainties on CapitaMall’s tenants as well as demand for retail space,” Lim Beng Chee, chief executive officer of the trust’s manager, said in the statement.
CapitaMall has retreated 0.6% in Singapore this year. CapitaLand, Southeast Asia’s largest developer and the trust’s parent, has gained 11%, while the benchmark Straits Times Index rose 7.4% during the period. Today’s earnings were released before the start of trading.
During the quarter, the trust raised $1.23 billion by selling shares to existing investors to help repay some of its borrowings as the global financial crisis tightens the availability of credit.
Income during the quarter included rents from The Atrium@Orchard, a property located along Singapore’s Orchard Road shopping belt that CapitaMall bought on Aug 15. It also completed “asset enhancement initiatives” at Sembawang Shopping Centre and Lot One Shoppers’ Mall, the trust said.
For the year, CapitaMall has “locked in” more than 90% of 2008’s gross revenue, Lim said in the statement, citing its leases as of March 31.
The trust plans to start enhancement works at Jurong Entertainment Centre, a property that was closed in November, by the end of the year, CapitaMall said.
It’s also seeking to start work on integrating Atrium@Orchard with Plaza Singapura, a neighboring property also owned by the trust, by the end of 2010, the statement said.
Retail rents across Singapore fell 0.6% in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, a second straight decline, the Urban Redevelopment Authority said on Jan 23. The government agency is scheduled to release data for the three months ended March 31 later this month.
Thursday, April 16, 2009
纽交所CEO：须慎对3月份股市上涨
The March stock market rally that fuelled hopes of a broader economic recovery was deceptive because “real money” investors remained on the sidelines, according to the chief executive of NYSE Euronext, the world's largest stock exchange.
全球最大股票交易所纽约证交所(NYSE)首席执行官邓肯·尼德洛尔(Duncan Niederauer)表示，3月份的股市上涨，推升了人们对于经济大面积复苏的希望，但这种上涨有其假象，因为“真正持有大量现金的”投资者仍在场外观望。
In rare comments about market movements, Duncan Niederauer said in an interview with the Financial Times that the rally was driven by short-term traders trying to take advantage of high volatility and not by large institutional or other long-term investors.
在接受英国《金融时报》采访时，尼德洛尔罕见地对市场走势进行了评论。他表示，此番上涨由试图通过市场较高的波动性获利的短线交易者推动，并非由大型机构或其它长线投资者推动。
Mr Niederauer suggested the high trading volumes and gains in leading indices did not necessarily reflect any real conviction that the worst of the economic crisis was over.
尼德洛尔认为，尽管成交量和主要股指的涨幅较大，但未必表明市场真的确信经济危机最糟糕的时期已经过去。
He said the volumes had been concentrated in a handful of stocks reflecting what he termed a “traders' market”.
他表示，成交量集中于少数股票，反映了他称之为“交易者市场”的特征 。
He said: “The real money investors are still waiting. I think they're waiting, they're watching. They want to make sure that what we saw in March is real. And I think once they are convinced you will know it. The market will have a totally different tone to it.”
他表示：“真正持有大量现金的投资者仍然在等待。我认为，他们在等待，在观察。他们想证实我们在3月份看到的情况是真实的。我认为，一旦他们确信这一点，你就会知道。届时市场基调将全然不同。”
Mr Niederauer said he sensed that volumes, while relatively healthy, were below the levels which would indicate that investors had regained confidence in the fundamentals of the market.
尼德洛尔表示，他觉得尽管成交量相对较大，但仍低于表明投资者已恢复对市场基本面信心的水平。
“I think we're waiting for another rally, in my opinion, in around June and July,” he said.
“我认为我们在等待另一次上涨，我认为，大概在6、7月间，”他说。
He said a summer rally would be a leading indicator of economic recovery and that by April 2010 the global economy would look much healthier.
他表示，一波夏季上涨行情将是经济复苏的一个先行指标，意味着到2010年4月，全球经济看起来将健康得多。
The benchmark S&P 500 index rose by 8.5 per cent in March, its best month since October 2002, leading some bulls to predict that the recovery had arrived.
基准的标普500指数3月份上涨了8.5%，是2002年10月以来表现最好的一个月，这使得一些多头人士预言，经济复苏已经开始。
译者/力文
全球最大股票交易所纽约证交所(NYSE)首席执行官邓肯·尼德洛尔(Duncan Niederauer)表示，3月份的股市上涨，推升了人们对于经济大面积复苏的希望，但这种上涨有其假象，因为“真正持有大量现金的”投资者仍在场外观望。
In rare comments about market movements, Duncan Niederauer said in an interview with the Financial Times that the rally was driven by short-term traders trying to take advantage of high volatility and not by large institutional or other long-term investors.
在接受英国《金融时报》采访时，尼德洛尔罕见地对市场走势进行了评论。他表示，此番上涨由试图通过市场较高的波动性获利的短线交易者推动，并非由大型机构或其它长线投资者推动。
Mr Niederauer suggested the high trading volumes and gains in leading indices did not necessarily reflect any real conviction that the worst of the economic crisis was over.
尼德洛尔认为，尽管成交量和主要股指的涨幅较大，但未必表明市场真的确信经济危机最糟糕的时期已经过去。
He said the volumes had been concentrated in a handful of stocks reflecting what he termed a “traders' market”.
他表示，成交量集中于少数股票，反映了他称之为“交易者市场”的特征 。
He said: “The real money investors are still waiting. I think they're waiting, they're watching. They want to make sure that what we saw in March is real. And I think once they are convinced you will know it. The market will have a totally different tone to it.”
他表示：“真正持有大量现金的投资者仍然在等待。我认为，他们在等待，在观察。他们想证实我们在3月份看到的情况是真实的。我认为，一旦他们确信这一点，你就会知道。届时市场基调将全然不同。”
Mr Niederauer said he sensed that volumes, while relatively healthy, were below the levels which would indicate that investors had regained confidence in the fundamentals of the market.
尼德洛尔表示，他觉得尽管成交量相对较大，但仍低于表明投资者已恢复对市场基本面信心的水平。
“I think we're waiting for another rally, in my opinion, in around June and July,” he said.
“我认为我们在等待另一次上涨，我认为，大概在6、7月间，”他说。
He said a summer rally would be a leading indicator of economic recovery and that by April 2010 the global economy would look much healthier.
他表示，一波夏季上涨行情将是经济复苏的一个先行指标，意味着到2010年4月，全球经济看起来将健康得多。
The benchmark S&P 500 index rose by 8.5 per cent in March, its best month since October 2002, leading some bulls to predict that the recovery had arrived.
基准的标普500指数3月份上涨了8.5%，是2002年10月以来表现最好的一个月，这使得一些多头人士预言，经济复苏已经开始。
译者/力文
外匯最前線 - 0413本周匯市展望與市場焦點預覽
1. 美股密集財報季開始
4/14高盛(GS)嬌生(JNJ)，盤後Intel。4/15印度Infosys。4/16貝萊德(BLK)，摩根大通(JPM)，Nokia，盤後Google。4/17花旗(C)，奇異(GE)。雖然財報不一定會很亮麗，但可能通通當作利空出盡解讀。
1. 周二美國零售
前值-0.1%,預估值+0.3%,目前猜測變化不大.
2. 周二PPI,周三CPI
這兩個數字都不受重視.PPI前值0.1%,預估值0%,CPI前值+0.4%,預估值+0.2%.通膨維持小幅增長是經濟復甦的證據之一.除非意外大幅轉負,否則對市場影響不大.
3. 周五美國消費者信心
本周重要變數.前值57.3,預估值59,消費者信心會領先零售數據,而且可能因股市好轉而大幅增加.此數據最可能大幅優於預期,帶動美股上揚
美股偏多走勢中最有利的仍是追逐澳元
4/14高盛(GS)嬌生(JNJ)，盤後Intel。4/15印度Infosys。4/16貝萊德(BLK)，摩根大通(JPM)，Nokia，盤後Google。4/17花旗(C)，奇異(GE)。雖然財報不一定會很亮麗，但可能通通當作利空出盡解讀。
1. 周二美國零售
前值-0.1%,預估值+0.3%,目前猜測變化不大.
2. 周二PPI,周三CPI
這兩個數字都不受重視.PPI前值0.1%,預估值0%,CPI前值+0.4%,預估值+0.2%.通膨維持小幅增長是經濟復甦的證據之一.除非意外大幅轉負,否則對市場影響不大.
3. 周五美國消費者信心
本周重要變數.前值57.3,預估值59,消費者信心會領先零售數據,而且可能因股市好轉而大幅增加.此數據最可能大幅優於預期,帶動美股上揚
美股偏多走勢中最有利的仍是追逐澳元
私宅发展商削价策略奏效
（2009-04-16）
● 吴慧敏 今年3月，发展商总共卖出了1220个新私宅单位，这虽然比2月份的1332个单位减少8％，不过仍然是过去20个月以来成交量第二活跃的月份。
市区重建局昨天发表的数据也显示，发展商在今年3月推出了832个新私宅单位。这虽然比2月份的1072个单位少，却仍是自去年7月以来的第二高水平。
市场人士指出，发展商在2月份大刀阔斧的削价行动，成功吸引一些买家回头，让积压了几个月的购屋需求一下子被释放出来。再加上组屋转售价格维持在高水平，许多人纷纷趁目前这个组屋和私宅价格差距缩小的“窗口期”进场。
博纳集团（PropNex）总裁伊斯迈说：“我们看到购屋热潮从2月份延烧至3月份，特别是郊外地区的大众化项目。”
今年3月推出和售出新私宅单位，超过六成属于郊外大众化私宅项目。单单是水之轩（Caspian）、Double Bay Residences、Kovan Residences、莉雅苑（Livia）、新乐园（Mi Casa）、The Quartz、Waterfront Waves和Woodsville 28等，就成功卖出550至600个单位。
世邦魏理仕（CB Richard Ellis）执行董事李晓和指出，这些项目的中位成交价格介于每平方英尺610元至740元，而且单位的平均成交价为69万5000元。
“今年首三个月的房屋买家，大多是新加坡人或永久居民，其中不少还是组屋提升者。”
随着购屋信心逐渐回流，一些中高档共管公寓单位也开始“动”了起来，例如位于马里士他路的The Arte就卖出了90个单位。上个星期，靠近乌节路的Illuminaire On Devonshire也以每平方英尺平均1700元卖出全部72个单位，Verdure也以每平方英尺平均1400元卖出大约14个单位。
展望接下来的楼市，受访的分析员认为，虽然楼市的“最坏情况很可能已经过去”，不过这只是指市场的交易气氛，并不代表价格将停止下跌。
伊斯迈说，相较于去年12月和今年1月每个月只有百多个单位的成交量，“市场最黑暗的时期已经过去”。不过这并不代表价格会很快回升，而且他也不确定，接下来的私宅市场能否继续交出“破千”的交易成绩。 一方面是发展商在过去三个月已经卖出2660个新私宅单位，现在手头上没有剩下太多的低档私宅单位，或者是它们愿意大幅度削价的单位可以推出。另一方面是积压了几个月的需求已经得到相当程度的满足，除非全球的经济出现更多的复苏讯号，否则无法说服更多人大举进场。
麦俊荣认为，除非新加坡经济和就业市场在今年内显著复苏，否则今年全年的新私宅需求量应该会维持在6000至7000个单位。
李晓和比较乐观，他说，从最近的销售反应看，今年全年的新私宅成交量可能超出公司原本预测的5000至6000个单位，达到8000个单位。这已是2005年楼市开始复苏的水平。
在楼价方面，受访的分析员大多相信，接下来的楼价还会继续下跌，不过跌幅将逐渐缩小。
私宅价跌幅可能加大
市建局本月初发表的初步数据显示，第一季的私宅价格下跌了13.8％，是近34年来最大跌幅。一般相信，本月底发表的完整数据可能显示更大跌幅。
莱坊（KnightFrank）研究部主管麦俊荣认为，楼价在第一季暴跌了13.8％后，接下来几个季度的跌幅应该会逐渐缩小。
“只要组屋转售价格不要下跌超过7％，它应该还是可以扶持大众化私宅市场，让它有不错的需求。”
● 吴慧敏 今年3月，发展商总共卖出了1220个新私宅单位，这虽然比2月份的1332个单位减少8％，不过仍然是过去20个月以来成交量第二活跃的月份。
市区重建局昨天发表的数据也显示，发展商在今年3月推出了832个新私宅单位。这虽然比2月份的1072个单位少，却仍是自去年7月以来的第二高水平。
市场人士指出，发展商在2月份大刀阔斧的削价行动，成功吸引一些买家回头，让积压了几个月的购屋需求一下子被释放出来。再加上组屋转售价格维持在高水平，许多人纷纷趁目前这个组屋和私宅价格差距缩小的“窗口期”进场。
博纳集团（PropNex）总裁伊斯迈说：“我们看到购屋热潮从2月份延烧至3月份，特别是郊外地区的大众化项目。”
今年3月推出和售出新私宅单位，超过六成属于郊外大众化私宅项目。单单是水之轩（Caspian）、Double Bay Residences、Kovan Residences、莉雅苑（Livia）、新乐园（Mi Casa）、The Quartz、Waterfront Waves和Woodsville 28等，就成功卖出550至600个单位。
世邦魏理仕（CB Richard Ellis）执行董事李晓和指出，这些项目的中位成交价格介于每平方英尺610元至740元，而且单位的平均成交价为69万5000元。
“今年首三个月的房屋买家，大多是新加坡人或永久居民，其中不少还是组屋提升者。”
随着购屋信心逐渐回流，一些中高档共管公寓单位也开始“动”了起来，例如位于马里士他路的The Arte就卖出了90个单位。上个星期，靠近乌节路的Illuminaire On Devonshire也以每平方英尺平均1700元卖出全部72个单位，Verdure也以每平方英尺平均1400元卖出大约14个单位。
展望接下来的楼市，受访的分析员认为，虽然楼市的“最坏情况很可能已经过去”，不过这只是指市场的交易气氛，并不代表价格将停止下跌。
伊斯迈说，相较于去年12月和今年1月每个月只有百多个单位的成交量，“市场最黑暗的时期已经过去”。不过这并不代表价格会很快回升，而且他也不确定，接下来的私宅市场能否继续交出“破千”的交易成绩。 一方面是发展商在过去三个月已经卖出2660个新私宅单位，现在手头上没有剩下太多的低档私宅单位，或者是它们愿意大幅度削价的单位可以推出。另一方面是积压了几个月的需求已经得到相当程度的满足，除非全球的经济出现更多的复苏讯号，否则无法说服更多人大举进场。
麦俊荣认为，除非新加坡经济和就业市场在今年内显著复苏，否则今年全年的新私宅需求量应该会维持在6000至7000个单位。
李晓和比较乐观，他说，从最近的销售反应看，今年全年的新私宅成交量可能超出公司原本预测的5000至6000个单位，达到8000个单位。这已是2005年楼市开始复苏的水平。
在楼价方面，受访的分析员大多相信，接下来的楼价还会继续下跌，不过跌幅将逐渐缩小。
私宅价跌幅可能加大
市建局本月初发表的初步数据显示，第一季的私宅价格下跌了13.8％，是近34年来最大跌幅。一般相信，本月底发表的完整数据可能显示更大跌幅。
莱坊（KnightFrank）研究部主管麦俊荣认为，楼价在第一季暴跌了13.8％后，接下来几个季度的跌幅应该会逐渐缩小。
“只要组屋转售价格不要下跌超过7％，它应该还是可以扶持大众化私宅市场，让它有不错的需求。”
大巴窑私人组屋推出首日 反应热烈
（2009-04-16） ● 蔡永伟 虽然经济持续低迷，“The Peak@Toa Payoh”私人组屋推出首日仍吸引近4500人参观示范单位，超过300人申购。昨天是工作日，公众热烈反应出乎发展商预料。
不过，受访市场分析员却有所保留，认为看的人多，买的人少，显示买家变得更小心。
由海峡双威设计、兴建和销售（DBSS）的大巴窑私人组屋，昨天上午9时开始接受申购。尽管上午倾盆大雨，“The Peak”在发售后短短两小时吸引1000人参观，100多人上网申请。
负责销售“The Peak”的HSR经纪行董事刘凯丽说，这显示私人组屋市场不受经济危机影响。当年首日参观碧山和宏茂桥私人组屋示范单位的人数分别是1000和3000名，而在经济情况良好时推出的文庆路组屋，首日则迎来8000人参观，掀起排队热潮。
刘凯丽说：“今天不是周末，我们没料到有看屋人潮，相信周末将有更多人参观。”
她说，大巴窑地点优越，向来受公众青睐，建屋发展局日后应该不会再推出预购组屋，所以“The Peak”有一定的吸引力。
面对四美“Parc Lumiere”私人组屋本月底推出时的竞争压力，刘凯丽并不担心，甚至预料“The Peak”的销售成绩可媲美同个发展商去年推出的“City View@Boon Keng”私人组屋。“City View”的714个单位有3500人申购。
不过，受访的市场分析员却没这么乐观。博纳集团（PropNex）总裁伊斯迈认为，少过10%参观者提出申请，说明买家在经济情况不佳时格外谨慎。
ERA房地产公司助理副总裁林东荣也说，政府前天再调低全年增长预测，可能影响市场情绪，使购屋者暂时却步。
许多潜在买家也表示经济不景，屋价偏高，预算只有约50万元左右。不过，他们同意地点优越是“The Peak”最大卖点，不少人特地请假前去参观。 明年结婚的陈衍如（27岁，工程师）特别抽空去参观。尽管这批组屋是在抽签选购制度下接受申请，他仍担心很多人抢购，所以希望尽早提出申请。
陈衍如说：“如果推出的组屋在较偏远的地方如蔡厝港，我可能会选择周末参观示范单位，而不是特地请假参观。”
他说，“The Peak”有类似公寓装潢，因此屋价合理，在他的负担能力范围内，他将申购四房式单位。
也特地请假的郑文忠（27岁，工程师）同样没预料反应如此热烈。他申购预购组屋五次都不成功，因此打算申请“The Peak”四房式单位。
他说，私人组屋基本上已装修，可立即迁入，而且公共住屋可申请高达三万元的公积金购屋津贴，节省购屋费用。
打算过几年结婚的陈炳丰（27岁，科技导师）认为，“The Peak”推出1200多个单位，抽中机会较高。相反的，只推出360个单位的四美私人组屋，成功机会可能较小。他打算申购“The Peak”的五房式单位。
参观者也包括有意提升居住环境的屋主。住在大巴窑北四房式组屋的蓝雪鸣（48岁，建筑业者）带着妻女参观示范单位。
他说：“虽然行情不好，但为了让10岁女儿和8岁儿子有更舒适的生活空间，我还是想小屋换大屋，购买五房式单位。不过，由于售价偏高，我还在考虑。”
也有人为了住近父母而考虑申购。姚采杏（40岁，家庭主妇）住在兀兰五房式组屋，考虑购买“The Peak”的四或五房式单位。“如果申请成功，以后就再也不必来回两地跑，省时省事，但售价是关键。”
大巴窑私人组屋详情 “The Peak@Toa Payoh”建在大巴窑1A巷，在大巴窑地铁站和布莱德地铁站之间。
三房式售价35万5000元至39万8000元；四房式售价46万8000元到58万2000元；五房式售价53万9000元到72万2000元。
设在大巴窑1巷的示范单位每天上午9时开放至傍晚6时，申请截止日期是本月28日。发展商将在申请截止后六周内抽签，并通知成功的申请者。
不过，受访市场分析员却有所保留，认为看的人多，买的人少，显示买家变得更小心。
由海峡双威设计、兴建和销售（DBSS）的大巴窑私人组屋，昨天上午9时开始接受申购。尽管上午倾盆大雨，“The Peak”在发售后短短两小时吸引1000人参观，100多人上网申请。
负责销售“The Peak”的HSR经纪行董事刘凯丽说，这显示私人组屋市场不受经济危机影响。当年首日参观碧山和宏茂桥私人组屋示范单位的人数分别是1000和3000名，而在经济情况良好时推出的文庆路组屋，首日则迎来8000人参观，掀起排队热潮。
刘凯丽说：“今天不是周末，我们没料到有看屋人潮，相信周末将有更多人参观。”
她说，大巴窑地点优越，向来受公众青睐，建屋发展局日后应该不会再推出预购组屋，所以“The Peak”有一定的吸引力。
面对四美“Parc Lumiere”私人组屋本月底推出时的竞争压力，刘凯丽并不担心，甚至预料“The Peak”的销售成绩可媲美同个发展商去年推出的“City View@Boon Keng”私人组屋。“City View”的714个单位有3500人申购。
不过，受访的市场分析员却没这么乐观。博纳集团（PropNex）总裁伊斯迈认为，少过10%参观者提出申请，说明买家在经济情况不佳时格外谨慎。
ERA房地产公司助理副总裁林东荣也说，政府前天再调低全年增长预测，可能影响市场情绪，使购屋者暂时却步。
许多潜在买家也表示经济不景，屋价偏高，预算只有约50万元左右。不过，他们同意地点优越是“The Peak”最大卖点，不少人特地请假前去参观。 明年结婚的陈衍如（27岁，工程师）特别抽空去参观。尽管这批组屋是在抽签选购制度下接受申请，他仍担心很多人抢购，所以希望尽早提出申请。
陈衍如说：“如果推出的组屋在较偏远的地方如蔡厝港，我可能会选择周末参观示范单位，而不是特地请假参观。”
他说，“The Peak”有类似公寓装潢，因此屋价合理，在他的负担能力范围内，他将申购四房式单位。
也特地请假的郑文忠（27岁，工程师）同样没预料反应如此热烈。他申购预购组屋五次都不成功，因此打算申请“The Peak”四房式单位。
他说，私人组屋基本上已装修，可立即迁入，而且公共住屋可申请高达三万元的公积金购屋津贴，节省购屋费用。
打算过几年结婚的陈炳丰（27岁，科技导师）认为，“The Peak”推出1200多个单位，抽中机会较高。相反的，只推出360个单位的四美私人组屋，成功机会可能较小。他打算申购“The Peak”的五房式单位。
参观者也包括有意提升居住环境的屋主。住在大巴窑北四房式组屋的蓝雪鸣（48岁，建筑业者）带着妻女参观示范单位。
他说：“虽然行情不好，但为了让10岁女儿和8岁儿子有更舒适的生活空间，我还是想小屋换大屋，购买五房式单位。不过，由于售价偏高，我还在考虑。”
也有人为了住近父母而考虑申购。姚采杏（40岁，家庭主妇）住在兀兰五房式组屋，考虑购买“The Peak”的四或五房式单位。“如果申请成功，以后就再也不必来回两地跑，省时省事，但售价是关键。”
大巴窑私人组屋详情 “The Peak@Toa Payoh”建在大巴窑1A巷，在大巴窑地铁站和布莱德地铁站之间。
三房式售价35万5000元至39万8000元；四房式售价46万8000元到58万2000元；五房式售价53万9000元到72万2000元。
设在大巴窑1巷的示范单位每天上午9时开放至傍晚6时，申请截止日期是本月28日。发展商将在申请截止后六周内抽签，并通知成功的申请者。
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
The Mercury @ Shanghai Road
Posted by luxuryasiahome on February 19, 2009
A silver silhouette stands out at the Shanghai Road address. One that is sleek and cool, smooth and fluid, solitary and outstanding. A single tower rises above its surroundings draped in quicksilver.
This is THE MERCURY – where everything and everybody stops to enjoy the joys of life.
Beyond the famed Orchard Road and before the iconic Singapore River, The Mercury stands out as a representation of the world between calm and vibrancy. With 67 units wrapped in 18 storeys of luxury, you can take in the panorama of your contrasting surroundings.
The modern aesthetic of the development is clear – strong, defined lines, grill shades and cool greys. However, buffeted by soft greenery, the overall look is one of contemporary serenity. Dive into the infinity-edged pool or have a complete top to toe workout in a state-of-the-art gymnasium.
The theme of tranquility is consistent throughout, even to the penthouse roof garden and jacuzzi.
Location: Shanghai Road (District 10)
Expected Completion: Dec 2014
Tenure: FreeholdTotal Units: 67Unit Types:1+1 ~ 635sqft2+1 ~ 1044sqft and 1259sqft (PES)Penthouses ~ 1205sqft (1+1) and 1926sqft (2+1)
Attractive discount and Interest Absorption Scheme for a limited period only.
Preview now by appointment, kindly call +65 9631 8037 email lushhome@gmail.com with the following:
Mercury / name / contact # / unit type interested
A silver silhouette stands out at the Shanghai Road address. One that is sleek and cool, smooth and fluid, solitary and outstanding. A single tower rises above its surroundings draped in quicksilver.
This is THE MERCURY – where everything and everybody stops to enjoy the joys of life.
Beyond the famed Orchard Road and before the iconic Singapore River, The Mercury stands out as a representation of the world between calm and vibrancy. With 67 units wrapped in 18 storeys of luxury, you can take in the panorama of your contrasting surroundings.
The modern aesthetic of the development is clear – strong, defined lines, grill shades and cool greys. However, buffeted by soft greenery, the overall look is one of contemporary serenity. Dive into the infinity-edged pool or have a complete top to toe workout in a state-of-the-art gymnasium.
The theme of tranquility is consistent throughout, even to the penthouse roof garden and jacuzzi.
Location: Shanghai Road (District 10)
Expected Completion: Dec 2014
Tenure: FreeholdTotal Units: 67Unit Types:1+1 ~ 635sqft2+1 ~ 1044sqft and 1259sqft (PES)Penthouses ~ 1205sqft (1+1) and 1926sqft (2+1)
Attractive discount and Interest Absorption Scheme for a limited period only.
Preview now by appointment, kindly call +65 9631 8037 email lushhome@gmail.com with the following:
Mercury / name / contact # / unit type interested
出口反彈在即？ 陶冬
2009/04/15 ｜ 加入書籤｜ 轉寄本文
如果為金融海嘯畫路線圖，市場危機、信貸危機、需求危機，生產/出口危機，可以說是四部曲。
亞洲的銀行沒有買入大量有毒證券，因此資本受傷害不大。房地產升幅多不瘋狂也沒有過分瘋狂的住房按揭，因此房價下調空間有限，至少對經濟不存在致命的一擊。消費者藉貸槓桿普遍不高，所以受「去槓桿化」的衝擊也不大。曾幾何時，有人認為亞洲經濟可以與美國、歐洲脫勾，能夠在金融海嘯中獨善其身。
然而，海嘯還是襲來了。儘管亞洲在銀行、房價、信貸、衍生金融產品等領域不像歐美那麼狼狽，這個區域對出口的依賴度卻是全世界最高的。當世界其它國家受金融風暴衝擊，經濟陷入衰退，就業大幅惡化時，這些國家的需求自然消失，亞洲的出口訂單也就枯竭了。
今年第一季度，日本出口較一年前暴跌48％，韓國25％，台灣34％，中國22%（後兩者為前兩個月），香港、新加坡也跌得很慘烈。亞洲靠出口吃飯的結構性缺陷，被暴露無遺。亞洲無法置身於危機之外，只不過處在金融海嘯傳導機制的末端。
筆者認為，全球需求衰退還會持續，美國的就業惡化仍在加速，歐洲的勞工市場（尤其在德國、意大利）開始崩潰，這些勢必帶來進一步的消費收縮，進而影響投資決策和銀行信貸質量。從各種意義上，我們都面臨二次世界大戰後最嚴峻的經濟衰退。
不過即使在如此惡劣的宏觀環境下，筆者覺得出口衰退三○%至四○%是不正常的。美國消費的確在倒退，但是WalMart的銷售並沒有下降三○%至四○%；商品需求的確轉弱，但是不至於到七○%的散裝貨輪停駛待貨的地步。
信貸收縮，存貨調整，將一個糟糕的情況變成一個絕望的情況。公司們均信奉現金為王，盡量使用存貨而輕易不下新訂單。歐美零售商在收到貨之前不支付款項（收到貨後還要拖延付款），出口商在未收到訂金前不敢開機器。於是訂單的下降速度遠快過需求的下降，全世界都在靠存貨運作。信心危機導致訂單斷流，於是貿易量暴跌。
筆者不敢預測這場信心危機何時結束，不過可以斷言WalMart開門營業時，它的貨架不能是空的。當信心危機導致存貨量低到無可再低水平時，重置庫存是自然的邏輯的結果，畢竟人們還要吃飯穿衣。
也許實體經濟的最壞時刻尚未到來，也許最終需求仍然疲軟。不過筆者相信，由庫存重置帶來的訂單回升快要出現了，從而拉動工業生產，拉動對商品、航運業的需求。非最終需求的反彈，有時也蠻有趣。
(本文原載於今周刊，為個人觀點，並非任何勸誘或投資建議)
Condos: Buy now or wait?
Posted by luxuryasiahome on April 11, 2009
Home buyers keen to upgrade from a Housing Board flat to a private condominium will have plenty of choice this year. That is going by data compiled by real estate services company CB Richard Ellis.
A total of 82 projects are currently ready to be put up for sale throughout this year, said CBRE, an international company with a research team in Singapore.
From the coastal areas of Pasir Panjang and Punggol to the residential zones of Simei and Sixth Avenue, there is a private apartment development waiting to be launched in almost every corner of the island.
Most are in the non-landed condominium category, aimed at Housing Board upgraders and young family starters.
CBRE’s list defined the projects on the list as those that are ‘launch-ready’. By this, it means projects that have all the necessary permits from the authorities so they can be marketed, although construction work may not have started.
Already, four have been launched - including the latest, Mi Casa condominium at Choa Chu Kang, whose units went on sale this weekend. A further two are expected to be launched within the next two months.
With private property prices falling when HDB resale flat prices are still holding fairly steady, it is music to the ears of those who want to upgrade but have not been able to amid high prices and not so many mass-market launches in recent years.
Writer Ng Hui Hui, 28, who is looking for a private apartment but finds prices a bit high now, feels the high number of launches will increase her chances of finding one at the right price.
‘I’m more hopeful because the number of launches offers a lot of choices. There’s more for me to consider,’ she said.
HDB upgraders have flexed their muscle at condo launches so far this year, buying many units at The Caspian beside Lakeside MRT station, Double Bay Residences in Simei and The Quartz in Buangkok, for example.
Mr Joseph Tan, CBRE’s executive director, residential, notes: ‘If there are a number of HDB upgraders who are ready to enter the market, the sales momentum can be sustained.’
Over at the 18-storey The Mercury in Shanghai Road launched three weeks ago, all 67 units - priced from over $700,000 for a 635 sq ft apartment - were snapped up.
Mr Victor Soh, director of the developer, Fortune Shanghai Road, said: ‘There was no delay in launching the project despite the bad market - we launched it when the project was ready. There were quite a number of people waiting for us to launch.
‘All our units have already been sold and we’re ready to start construction.’
While house-proud Singaporeans will enjoy poring over the launch-ready list, imagining their dream home, most projects may not actually go up for sale soon, as developers wait and see how the economy goes.
Only 10 out of the 82 could name a date or period, but even they said their dates are subject to change.
Still, judging by the small amount of dates given, the hold-out may not go beyond this year or the early part of the next, as the furthest indicated date a developer gave was the first half of next year.
Such delays also mean prices will not plummet too sharply, said a spokesman for listed developer City Developments.
He said: ‘This has helped to balance current demand and supply by mitigating the supply of new apartments entering the market.’
The tough economic times are weighing on some developers, with Ms Chua Chor Hoon, a senior research director for global real estate adviser DTZ, saying: ‘Some have been responding to the slow market by deferring projects that are due for completion to later years.’
A spokesman for residential project Verdure - a planned 75-unit, freehold development in Holland Road - said: ‘The market is so bad, we can’t launch it.’
Another, representing the exclusive 26-unit The Verv @ River Valley, said it was putting off its launch, explaining: ‘Blame it on the economy.’
Both spokesmen declined to be named.
The experience of upcoming mid-market, 24-unit Evergreen View at Geylang Lorong 36 echoes this.
Mr Thomas Sim, associate manager of real estate firm PropNex Realty, which is the selling agent, said: ‘We’ve only had the soft launch last month so far because the show unit is only slated for completion in May, and also partly because the market is poor now. As it is, the reaction from the soft launch wasn’t very good.’
A key part of marketing a condo is to build a show flat to entice prospective buyers. Another reason some projects are being delayed is that developers are reviewing their plans in order to reconfigure units to a smaller size, say industry players. The smaller sizes make the units more affordable.
Knowing about the list of 82 ‘launch-ready’ projects is good news for the likes of home-hunter John Yeo, 38.
The sales manager says: ‘This means I have time and don’t have to rush. I can take my time to choose. But of course, price and location must also be right.’
Source : Straits Times - 11 Apr 2009
Home buyers keen to upgrade from a Housing Board flat to a private condominium will have plenty of choice this year. That is going by data compiled by real estate services company CB Richard Ellis.
A total of 82 projects are currently ready to be put up for sale throughout this year, said CBRE, an international company with a research team in Singapore.
From the coastal areas of Pasir Panjang and Punggol to the residential zones of Simei and Sixth Avenue, there is a private apartment development waiting to be launched in almost every corner of the island.
Most are in the non-landed condominium category, aimed at Housing Board upgraders and young family starters.
CBRE’s list defined the projects on the list as those that are ‘launch-ready’. By this, it means projects that have all the necessary permits from the authorities so they can be marketed, although construction work may not have started.
Already, four have been launched - including the latest, Mi Casa condominium at Choa Chu Kang, whose units went on sale this weekend. A further two are expected to be launched within the next two months.
With private property prices falling when HDB resale flat prices are still holding fairly steady, it is music to the ears of those who want to upgrade but have not been able to amid high prices and not so many mass-market launches in recent years.
Writer Ng Hui Hui, 28, who is looking for a private apartment but finds prices a bit high now, feels the high number of launches will increase her chances of finding one at the right price.
‘I’m more hopeful because the number of launches offers a lot of choices. There’s more for me to consider,’ she said.
HDB upgraders have flexed their muscle at condo launches so far this year, buying many units at The Caspian beside Lakeside MRT station, Double Bay Residences in Simei and The Quartz in Buangkok, for example.
Mr Joseph Tan, CBRE’s executive director, residential, notes: ‘If there are a number of HDB upgraders who are ready to enter the market, the sales momentum can be sustained.’
Over at the 18-storey The Mercury in Shanghai Road launched three weeks ago, all 67 units - priced from over $700,000 for a 635 sq ft apartment - were snapped up.
Mr Victor Soh, director of the developer, Fortune Shanghai Road, said: ‘There was no delay in launching the project despite the bad market - we launched it when the project was ready. There were quite a number of people waiting for us to launch.
‘All our units have already been sold and we’re ready to start construction.’
While house-proud Singaporeans will enjoy poring over the launch-ready list, imagining their dream home, most projects may not actually go up for sale soon, as developers wait and see how the economy goes.
Only 10 out of the 82 could name a date or period, but even they said their dates are subject to change.
Still, judging by the small amount of dates given, the hold-out may not go beyond this year or the early part of the next, as the furthest indicated date a developer gave was the first half of next year.
Such delays also mean prices will not plummet too sharply, said a spokesman for listed developer City Developments.
He said: ‘This has helped to balance current demand and supply by mitigating the supply of new apartments entering the market.’
The tough economic times are weighing on some developers, with Ms Chua Chor Hoon, a senior research director for global real estate adviser DTZ, saying: ‘Some have been responding to the slow market by deferring projects that are due for completion to later years.’
A spokesman for residential project Verdure - a planned 75-unit, freehold development in Holland Road - said: ‘The market is so bad, we can’t launch it.’
Another, representing the exclusive 26-unit The Verv @ River Valley, said it was putting off its launch, explaining: ‘Blame it on the economy.’
Both spokesmen declined to be named.
The experience of upcoming mid-market, 24-unit Evergreen View at Geylang Lorong 36 echoes this.
Mr Thomas Sim, associate manager of real estate firm PropNex Realty, which is the selling agent, said: ‘We’ve only had the soft launch last month so far because the show unit is only slated for completion in May, and also partly because the market is poor now. As it is, the reaction from the soft launch wasn’t very good.’
A key part of marketing a condo is to build a show flat to entice prospective buyers. Another reason some projects are being delayed is that developers are reviewing their plans in order to reconfigure units to a smaller size, say industry players. The smaller sizes make the units more affordable.
Knowing about the list of 82 ‘launch-ready’ projects is good news for the likes of home-hunter John Yeo, 38.
The sales manager says: ‘This means I have time and don’t have to rush. I can take my time to choose. But of course, price and location must also be right.’
Source : Straits Times - 11 Apr 2009
Investors warm to cooling condo prices
Posted by luxuryasiahome on April 9, 2009
The sharp slide in high-end residential property prices is beginning to show up on the radars of serious investors.
From their peaks in the second half of 2007 to the first quarter this year, transacted prices of luxury condos in the prime Orchard Road belt have fallen by about 40 per cent.
This is the steepest islandwide decline in condo prices and the potential buying opportunities that this is opening up are not lost on investors keen on buying multiple units.
Credo Real Estate’s analysis of URA Realis’ caveats shows the average price transacted at St Regis Residences has fallen 38 per cent from $3,411 per square foot in H2 2007 to $2,099 psf in Q1 this year.
At Ardmore II, the average transacted price has slipped 43 per cent, from $3,073 psf in H2 2007 to $1,761 psf in Q1 2009.
Over the same period, Cairnhill Crest’s average price declined 36 per cent to $1,430 psf in Q1 2009.
‘The projects we selected were those that we believed stood as good proxies for their respective locations, and ideally have some history (that is, not launched recently),’ said Credo’s managing director Karam- jit Singh.
‘Transaction volumes were thin in Q1 this year; there were only three luxury projects in the Orchard Road belt with at least two transactions each in the first three months of this year. It’s not an ideal situation, where we would want to pick from a larger basket of transactions. But this study still serves to point towards where the market has been heading,’ he said.
Credo’s analysis also showed that, on average, condo prices in Sentosa Cove in Q1 2009 were about 30 per cent below H2 2007. In the city centre, the average price decline in the same period ranged from 22 per cent (for Icon) to 34 per cent (for The Sail @ Marina Bay).
In what Credo dubs the ‘mid-prime segment’ - covering River Valley, Bukit Timah, Novena/Thomson and Katong - it said average price declines generally ranged from about 20 to 30 per cent. Suburban condo prices generally fell less than 10 per cent.
‘The analysis shows the greater price volatility in the prime districts, which also presents opportunity for greater upside when recovery sets in, compared with suburban condo prices, which tend to move in a more subdued fashion,’ said Mr Singh.
The bigger price drops in the Orchard area have led to a narrowing price gap between the high-end and low-end segments. ‘At some point, not too far from now, buyers will start upgrading from one tier to the upper tier,’ Mr Singh reckons.
‘What the price convergence illustrates is the buying potential of prime properties. It will pay - whether at this point in time or not very far off from now - to bet on prime,’ he added.
The price declines have surfaced on the radars of potential investors - individuals, families and some property funds - who are studying top-notch prime- district projects, with a medium-term investment horizon. ‘Some have capacity to take about 10 units, some 20 units. Some have budgets of more than $100 million,’ according to Mr Singh.
CB Richard Ellis executive director Jeremy Lake said high-net-worth individuals here as well as in a three-hour flight radius from Singapore are among the key players actively looking for property investments here. ‘Some are keen on investing in offices; some in residential - most would go for the high-end, where prices have corrected the most,’ he added.
Mr Singh said acquisitions would be funded largely with equity. ‘Right now, they’re monitoring the big picture - homing in on a good time to make a swoop, which projects, at which prices,’ he added.
Mr Lake adds: ‘Some investors are willing to commit sooner rather than later, compared with a few months ago when everybody wanted to wait and found pricing to be unattractive. Now, some investors think pricing is good enough to go.’
Market watchers say the likelihood of deals being struck will also depend on the threshold of sellers, who could include individuals who are stretched from holding multiple condo units as well as developers of projects with low-cost land or who just want to clear unsold units.
DTZ senior director Shaun Poh says some private bankers are trying to arrange consortiums for high-net-worth clients and are sourcing for property investments of about $20-50 million per consortium. ‘Their main target would be high-end condos; some may also be interested in commercial properties. The banks will also provide financing for the acquisition.The mandate given to these private bankers is to look for opportunities priced 20-30 per cent below current values,’ he said.
However, Mr Singh’s advice is: ‘It’s close enough to the bottom that it makes sense to buy at this stage, rather than buy when it has turned the corner - by which time the number of competing buyers will be greater.’
Source : Business Times - 9 Apr 2009
The sharp slide in high-end residential property prices is beginning to show up on the radars of serious investors.
From their peaks in the second half of 2007 to the first quarter this year, transacted prices of luxury condos in the prime Orchard Road belt have fallen by about 40 per cent.
This is the steepest islandwide decline in condo prices and the potential buying opportunities that this is opening up are not lost on investors keen on buying multiple units.
Credo Real Estate’s analysis of URA Realis’ caveats shows the average price transacted at St Regis Residences has fallen 38 per cent from $3,411 per square foot in H2 2007 to $2,099 psf in Q1 this year.
At Ardmore II, the average transacted price has slipped 43 per cent, from $3,073 psf in H2 2007 to $1,761 psf in Q1 2009.
Over the same period, Cairnhill Crest’s average price declined 36 per cent to $1,430 psf in Q1 2009.
‘The projects we selected were those that we believed stood as good proxies for their respective locations, and ideally have some history (that is, not launched recently),’ said Credo’s managing director Karam- jit Singh.
‘Transaction volumes were thin in Q1 this year; there were only three luxury projects in the Orchard Road belt with at least two transactions each in the first three months of this year. It’s not an ideal situation, where we would want to pick from a larger basket of transactions. But this study still serves to point towards where the market has been heading,’ he said.
Credo’s analysis also showed that, on average, condo prices in Sentosa Cove in Q1 2009 were about 30 per cent below H2 2007. In the city centre, the average price decline in the same period ranged from 22 per cent (for Icon) to 34 per cent (for The Sail @ Marina Bay).
In what Credo dubs the ‘mid-prime segment’ - covering River Valley, Bukit Timah, Novena/Thomson and Katong - it said average price declines generally ranged from about 20 to 30 per cent. Suburban condo prices generally fell less than 10 per cent.
‘The analysis shows the greater price volatility in the prime districts, which also presents opportunity for greater upside when recovery sets in, compared with suburban condo prices, which tend to move in a more subdued fashion,’ said Mr Singh.
The bigger price drops in the Orchard area have led to a narrowing price gap between the high-end and low-end segments. ‘At some point, not too far from now, buyers will start upgrading from one tier to the upper tier,’ Mr Singh reckons.
‘What the price convergence illustrates is the buying potential of prime properties. It will pay - whether at this point in time or not very far off from now - to bet on prime,’ he added.
The price declines have surfaced on the radars of potential investors - individuals, families and some property funds - who are studying top-notch prime- district projects, with a medium-term investment horizon. ‘Some have capacity to take about 10 units, some 20 units. Some have budgets of more than $100 million,’ according to Mr Singh.
CB Richard Ellis executive director Jeremy Lake said high-net-worth individuals here as well as in a three-hour flight radius from Singapore are among the key players actively looking for property investments here. ‘Some are keen on investing in offices; some in residential - most would go for the high-end, where prices have corrected the most,’ he added.
Mr Singh said acquisitions would be funded largely with equity. ‘Right now, they’re monitoring the big picture - homing in on a good time to make a swoop, which projects, at which prices,’ he added.
Mr Lake adds: ‘Some investors are willing to commit sooner rather than later, compared with a few months ago when everybody wanted to wait and found pricing to be unattractive. Now, some investors think pricing is good enough to go.’
Market watchers say the likelihood of deals being struck will also depend on the threshold of sellers, who could include individuals who are stretched from holding multiple condo units as well as developers of projects with low-cost land or who just want to clear unsold units.
DTZ senior director Shaun Poh says some private bankers are trying to arrange consortiums for high-net-worth clients and are sourcing for property investments of about $20-50 million per consortium. ‘Their main target would be high-end condos; some may also be interested in commercial properties. The banks will also provide financing for the acquisition.The mandate given to these private bankers is to look for opportunities priced 20-30 per cent below current values,’ he said.
However, Mr Singh’s advice is: ‘It’s close enough to the bottom that it makes sense to buy at this stage, rather than buy when it has turned the corner - by which time the number of competing buyers will be greater.’
Source : Business Times - 9 Apr 2009
Rally in property stocks unlikely to continue
Posted by luxuryasiahome on April 12, 2009
Defying the real estate gloom, property counters have outperformed the broader stock market in the rally over recent weeks.
While the Straits Times Index has gone up by about 25 per cent since its six-year low of 1,456.95 on March 9, the FTSE Real Estate Index has shot up 31 per cent in the same period. The gains were led mainly by large and mid-sized developers, especially CapitaLand, City Developments (CDL) and Keppel Land, which jumped between 39 per cent and 63 per cent each.
But if would-be investors have not got in on the property stock action yet, it may be too late to do so now, analysts say.
They explain that part of the reason for the strong rebound recently was that the developers were previously oversold, thus making them look attractive despite news early this month that private home prices had plunged in the first quarter by a record 13.8 per cent.
But given the recent run-up in share prices, there appears to be limited potential for further gains for counters such as CapitaLand, Keppel Land and CDL, said OCBC analyst Foo Sze Ming.
The fundamentals of the property market remain flimsy, he said.
Although falling prices spurred a spike in home sales recently, demand was also partly driven by pent-up interest after several months of slowing sales.
‘Sustainable demand will still have to depend on the economy, wages and unemployment, which are still looking fragile at the moment,’ said Mr Foo.
‘With no catalyst in sight for a sustainable recovery in the property market, we prefer to remain conservative.’
Mr Foo favours developers with greater exposure to the mass market, which is still performing better than higher-end private properties as the gap between entry-level condominiums and HDB resale flats narrows.
‘Everybody knows the mass market is the one that is supporting the property sector right now,’ agreed Mr Donald Chua, an analyst at CIMB-GK Securities.
He added that fundamental problems remain in the real estate market. Transactions of mid- and high-end properties are slow, and the market is still worried over the possibility of defaults as job losses mount and more properties are completed this year.
‘If nothing changes on a fundamental basis, I don’t think this rally will last,’ he said.
DBS analyst Adrian Chua is also taking a cautious stance on the property sector, saying that ‘negative newsflow will continue to dog the sector as positive catalysts remain absent’.
‘We believe balance sheet strength remains the best defence in the current downcycle,’ he said in a report last week, with ‘buy’ calls on CDL, Wheelock Properties and Wing Tai.
OCBC’s Mr Foo also likes financially strong developers such as CDL and UOL Group, he said in a report last Wednesday.
UOL has underperformed in the recent rally, with its share price rising only about 28 per cent since March 9, Mr Foo said.
But the outlook for the property group remains positive and its recent successful launch of Double Bay will likely contribute to earnings through 2013.
CDL’s strengths are its ‘conservative management, strong balance sheet, diversified operations and low-cost land bank with significant mass market exposure’.
Source : Sunday Times - 12 Apr 2009
Defying the real estate gloom, property counters have outperformed the broader stock market in the rally over recent weeks.
While the Straits Times Index has gone up by about 25 per cent since its six-year low of 1,456.95 on March 9, the FTSE Real Estate Index has shot up 31 per cent in the same period. The gains were led mainly by large and mid-sized developers, especially CapitaLand, City Developments (CDL) and Keppel Land, which jumped between 39 per cent and 63 per cent each.
But if would-be investors have not got in on the property stock action yet, it may be too late to do so now, analysts say.
They explain that part of the reason for the strong rebound recently was that the developers were previously oversold, thus making them look attractive despite news early this month that private home prices had plunged in the first quarter by a record 13.8 per cent.
But given the recent run-up in share prices, there appears to be limited potential for further gains for counters such as CapitaLand, Keppel Land and CDL, said OCBC analyst Foo Sze Ming.
The fundamentals of the property market remain flimsy, he said.
Although falling prices spurred a spike in home sales recently, demand was also partly driven by pent-up interest after several months of slowing sales.
‘Sustainable demand will still have to depend on the economy, wages and unemployment, which are still looking fragile at the moment,’ said Mr Foo.
‘With no catalyst in sight for a sustainable recovery in the property market, we prefer to remain conservative.’
Mr Foo favours developers with greater exposure to the mass market, which is still performing better than higher-end private properties as the gap between entry-level condominiums and HDB resale flats narrows.
‘Everybody knows the mass market is the one that is supporting the property sector right now,’ agreed Mr Donald Chua, an analyst at CIMB-GK Securities.
He added that fundamental problems remain in the real estate market. Transactions of mid- and high-end properties are slow, and the market is still worried over the possibility of defaults as job losses mount and more properties are completed this year.
‘If nothing changes on a fundamental basis, I don’t think this rally will last,’ he said.
DBS analyst Adrian Chua is also taking a cautious stance on the property sector, saying that ‘negative newsflow will continue to dog the sector as positive catalysts remain absent’.
‘We believe balance sheet strength remains the best defence in the current downcycle,’ he said in a report last week, with ‘buy’ calls on CDL, Wheelock Properties and Wing Tai.
OCBC’s Mr Foo also likes financially strong developers such as CDL and UOL Group, he said in a report last Wednesday.
UOL has underperformed in the recent rally, with its share price rising only about 28 per cent since March 9, Mr Foo said.
But the outlook for the property group remains positive and its recent successful launch of Double Bay will likely contribute to earnings through 2013.
CDL’s strengths are its ‘conservative management, strong balance sheet, diversified operations and low-cost land bank with significant mass market exposure’.
Source : Sunday Times - 12 Apr 2009
Timing’s everything for upgraders
Posted by luxuryasiahome on April 15, 2009
IN THE midst of Singapore’s worst recession, people are still buying property.
Private condominium sales reached a recent high of 1,323 units in February - the highest since the 1,731 units sold in August 2007, which was the peak of the recent property bull run.
And though official figures are not yet available, the buying frenzy seems to have continued into March.
According to a recent report by DTZ Research, seven out of 10 buyers in the first quarter of this year are HDB upgraders.
This is a jump from the 48 per cent registered in the fourth quarter last year, and the highest number since the 86 per cent achieved in the second quarter of 2002.
HDB upgraders are home buyers with HDB addresses looking to move up the property ladder. They typically buy into mass-market condos, usually in the suburbs.
Experts say the recent brisk sales indicate a ‘pent-up demand’ in the market, especially from buyers who held back during the recent property boom, when prices skyrocketed in 2006 to 2007.
They also point to a unique phenomenon that occurs in a property boom-and -bust cycle where the gap between the price of HDB resale flats and mass market condos has narrowed to an all-time low.
Private property prices fell a quarterly record of 13.8 per cent in the first quarter of this year, compared with the marginal 0.6 per cent drop for HDB resale flats.
This means that HDB flat owners own an asset that has appreciated to more or less record value, at a time when the prices of mid-tier condos have dropped to affordable levels.
Now, the jump from public to private home ownership has always been a tantalising proposition.
But is this really the right time for an HDB upgrader to buy?
The answer, say property experts, depends on two things - when the condo unit the upgrader is buying will be completed, and what view he takes of the Singapore property market over the next couple of years.
Let me explain.
Unlike an investor who is buying for rental yield, the HDB upgrader typically moves out of his HDB flat and into his new condo unit. This means that he sells his flat only when the new condo unit is completed and ready for occupation.
Therefore, it makes the most sense for an upgrader today to buy a completed unit - because he can sell his flat now for a relatively high price and buy the new private condo unit on the cheap.
The problem is that there aren’t many completed suburban developments on the market. Most new condos approaching completion today are in the prime districts, which were the focus of the property boom two years ago.
And the handful of suburban developments that are close to completion aren’t that attractively priced, so the HDB upgrader isn’t getting that good a deal on them.
The fact is: The cheapest suburban condo units today are those being sold ‘off plan’, meaning that they will be completed only two or three years later.
For HDB upgraders who buy these types of condo units, the fact that they can currently can get a good price for their HDB flats is moot, because they will sell their flats only two or three years down the road.
That brings me to the second point that HDB upgraders must consider before signing on the dotted line.
What will the global economy and the Singapore property market look like in two or three years’ time, when these projects are due for completion?
Home buyers today can no longer rely on the now-defunct deferred payment scheme introduced in 1997. This allowed buyers to pay a 10 or 20 per cent downpayment, and defer taking a bank loan until the project was completed.
Developers have replaced this with the ‘interest absorption scheme’. Here, the buyer also pays an initial 20 per cent downpayment and defers the rest until the property is completed.
But the big difference now is that the minute buyers commit to a property, they have to take a loan with a bank which the developer has selected. The developer then foots the bill for the buyer in interest payments to the bank during the construction period.
This arrangement carries new risks for the home buyer.
Firstly, if a developer goes under, it will no longer be able to pay the regular interest payments and the bank will go to the buyer for these payments.
This seems quite an unlikely scenario in Singapore as developers who offer this scheme generally have the financial muscle to ride out the tough times. Still, the risk of this happening is higher with smaller developers.
Secondly, the bank reserves the right to revalue a property at any point during the construction, or when the project is completed.
So if the property market heads further south, a bank may revalue properties downwards. This means that it will likely reduce the sum it had earlier agreed to lend to the buyer, who will then have to stump up a hefty sum of cash to make up the difference.
On the one hand, experts say banks are unlikely to revalue properties as long as buyers are able to make the monthly payments. Unlike high-end properties where prices could crash in as little as three months, prices of suburban units are less volatile, say analysts.
But on the other hand, if the market really crashes, HDB upgraders could be hit by a double whammy. They will have to fork out more cash to top up their loans at a time when the values of their resale flats would most likely have crashed along with the general market. And if they back out of buying the new flat, they will lose a 20 per cent deposit.
In the worst-case scenario, they could be saddled with two mortgages for properties, both in negative equity.
Such an optimistic gamble on the future is not for the faint-hearted nor the financially prudent, especially when unemployment is hitting a record high.
But if an HDB upgrader truly has the financial strength to hold on to his properties indefinitely for the long term, it could be a gamble that will pay off when the market finally recovers.
These are sums that one must do carefully, no matter how beautiful and attractive floor plans and showflats now look.
Source : Straits Times - 15 Apr 2009
IN THE midst of Singapore’s worst recession, people are still buying property.
Private condominium sales reached a recent high of 1,323 units in February - the highest since the 1,731 units sold in August 2007, which was the peak of the recent property bull run.
And though official figures are not yet available, the buying frenzy seems to have continued into March.
According to a recent report by DTZ Research, seven out of 10 buyers in the first quarter of this year are HDB upgraders.
This is a jump from the 48 per cent registered in the fourth quarter last year, and the highest number since the 86 per cent achieved in the second quarter of 2002.
HDB upgraders are home buyers with HDB addresses looking to move up the property ladder. They typically buy into mass-market condos, usually in the suburbs.
Experts say the recent brisk sales indicate a ‘pent-up demand’ in the market, especially from buyers who held back during the recent property boom, when prices skyrocketed in 2006 to 2007.
They also point to a unique phenomenon that occurs in a property boom-and -bust cycle where the gap between the price of HDB resale flats and mass market condos has narrowed to an all-time low.
Private property prices fell a quarterly record of 13.8 per cent in the first quarter of this year, compared with the marginal 0.6 per cent drop for HDB resale flats.
This means that HDB flat owners own an asset that has appreciated to more or less record value, at a time when the prices of mid-tier condos have dropped to affordable levels.
Now, the jump from public to private home ownership has always been a tantalising proposition.
But is this really the right time for an HDB upgrader to buy?
The answer, say property experts, depends on two things - when the condo unit the upgrader is buying will be completed, and what view he takes of the Singapore property market over the next couple of years.
Let me explain.
Unlike an investor who is buying for rental yield, the HDB upgrader typically moves out of his HDB flat and into his new condo unit. This means that he sells his flat only when the new condo unit is completed and ready for occupation.
Therefore, it makes the most sense for an upgrader today to buy a completed unit - because he can sell his flat now for a relatively high price and buy the new private condo unit on the cheap.
The problem is that there aren’t many completed suburban developments on the market. Most new condos approaching completion today are in the prime districts, which were the focus of the property boom two years ago.
And the handful of suburban developments that are close to completion aren’t that attractively priced, so the HDB upgrader isn’t getting that good a deal on them.
The fact is: The cheapest suburban condo units today are those being sold ‘off plan’, meaning that they will be completed only two or three years later.
For HDB upgraders who buy these types of condo units, the fact that they can currently can get a good price for their HDB flats is moot, because they will sell their flats only two or three years down the road.
That brings me to the second point that HDB upgraders must consider before signing on the dotted line.
What will the global economy and the Singapore property market look like in two or three years’ time, when these projects are due for completion?
Home buyers today can no longer rely on the now-defunct deferred payment scheme introduced in 1997. This allowed buyers to pay a 10 or 20 per cent downpayment, and defer taking a bank loan until the project was completed.
Developers have replaced this with the ‘interest absorption scheme’. Here, the buyer also pays an initial 20 per cent downpayment and defers the rest until the property is completed.
But the big difference now is that the minute buyers commit to a property, they have to take a loan with a bank which the developer has selected. The developer then foots the bill for the buyer in interest payments to the bank during the construction period.
This arrangement carries new risks for the home buyer.
Firstly, if a developer goes under, it will no longer be able to pay the regular interest payments and the bank will go to the buyer for these payments.
This seems quite an unlikely scenario in Singapore as developers who offer this scheme generally have the financial muscle to ride out the tough times. Still, the risk of this happening is higher with smaller developers.
Secondly, the bank reserves the right to revalue a property at any point during the construction, or when the project is completed.
So if the property market heads further south, a bank may revalue properties downwards. This means that it will likely reduce the sum it had earlier agreed to lend to the buyer, who will then have to stump up a hefty sum of cash to make up the difference.
On the one hand, experts say banks are unlikely to revalue properties as long as buyers are able to make the monthly payments. Unlike high-end properties where prices could crash in as little as three months, prices of suburban units are less volatile, say analysts.
But on the other hand, if the market really crashes, HDB upgraders could be hit by a double whammy. They will have to fork out more cash to top up their loans at a time when the values of their resale flats would most likely have crashed along with the general market. And if they back out of buying the new flat, they will lose a 20 per cent deposit.
In the worst-case scenario, they could be saddled with two mortgages for properties, both in negative equity.
Such an optimistic gamble on the future is not for the faint-hearted nor the financially prudent, especially when unemployment is hitting a record high.
But if an HDB upgrader truly has the financial strength to hold on to his properties indefinitely for the long term, it could be a gamble that will pay off when the market finally recovers.
These are sums that one must do carefully, no matter how beautiful and attractive floor plans and showflats now look.
Source : Straits Times - 15 Apr 2009
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
首天售票 F1主看台套票卖出8000张
（2009-04-10） ● 赵琬仪第二届新加坡一级方程式（F1）大奖赛主看台套票昨早公开发售，虽然全岛唯一的指定售票处门可罗雀，但网上预订非常热烈。截至昨傍晚6时，门票已售出超过20.7%，也就是超过8000张。
其中最受欢迎的主看台套票包括维修站前、政府大厦草场以及康乐通道(Connaught Drive)。
由于首天公开售票反应热烈，主办公司新加坡GP昨天宣布，本月20日发售走动区门票和看台（Bay Grandstand）
套票当天，也同时发售因维修站出入口修改而需调整座席位置的第三转弯主看台的套票。
本报记者和摄影记者昨天一早，到指定的室内体育馆SISTIC售票处观察首日公开售票的情况，发现首个小时到Sistic柜台购票的公众只有4人，第五名F1迷则在早上10时30分后才出现。
主要是上网预订
据了解，去年新加坡F1大奖赛门市售票处卖出的票只占总交易的3%，其余主要是通过网上订票。
今年首日的售票情况也反映了人们主要上网预订，或通过海外售票经纪及电话预订中心购买。
新加坡GP公司执行董事罗切（Michael Roche）昨天傍晚发布文告说，预早购票的优惠获得赛车迷的热烈反应，这令人感到鼓舞。
改善后的售票系统及电话预订服务，也确保交易不发生状况。 昨早一早到指定售票处购票的两名F1迷说，他们是特地请了假，准备排队买票，之前还担心售票处出现人龙。他们对于能够通畅无阻地完成购票程序感到满意。
购买两张主看台套票的公众，在十分钟内便完成了交易。但如果买的票数太多，则得分几次完成交易，耗费的时间就比较长。
比如说昨天第一个购票的唐纳森（34岁）因为要买20张票，而售票规定每一次交易只能10张，所以他花了20分钟才完成交易。
吸取了去年网络超负荷，导致一些售票柜台人龙不散的经验，新加坡GP和SISTIC显然做足准备功夫，势必让本地和外国F1迷忘记去年苦候半天才买到门票的不愉快经验。
主办机构分两个阶段售票，昨天先发售主看台三天套票，本月20日再发售走动区门票和看台套票，以分散购票流量。
此外，新加坡GP在两个星期前还特别邀请了2000多名去年购买F1门票的公众，在14天里分别测试售票系统以及电话预订服务，确保订票程序顺畅。
有鉴于目前经济不景气，主办机构今年特别推出预早购票优惠价，主看台票价优惠折扣达100元至200元；走动区票价优惠折扣达10元至20元。在预早购票行动中推出市场的套票一共有7万2000套，比去年多出2000套。其中主看台套票占约3万9000张。
苏嘉力（25岁）昨早在室内体育馆购票处购买了三张总值1494元的主看台套票。
他受访时说，预早订购的原因是省钱，三张套票总共可节省300元。
我国政府把F1大奖赛带进来，一大目标是要把新加坡放在世界地图上，向全球展示新加坡的活力和精彩。去年，新加坡仅仅用了17个月的时间筹办世界首个夜间公路赛，赢得赛车界、国际F1迷和外国游客的一致好评，F1老板伯尼·埃克莱斯顿（Bernie Ecclestone）甚至称“新加坡是F1冠冕上的那颗宝石”。
活动区范围将受限制
为了更好地管理人流，主办机构今年将限定各活动区门票的活动范围。去年能全场走透透（除了名流包厢和维修楼）的走动区门票，今年已没有那么大的自由。整个赛道将划分为4个活动区，除了持有票价最贵的第一活动区门票的公众可以在各区穿梭，其余活动区门票都有限定活动的范围。
走动区三天套票，预早购票的优惠价和去年的原价一样，维持在168元。三天普通套票今年的订价为188元。单日的走动区门票优惠价则分别为28元、58元和108元。
第三转弯主看台套票优惠价为988元,只有预早订购的50%赛车迷能享有这个优惠。原价为1188元。
其中最受欢迎的主看台套票包括维修站前、政府大厦草场以及康乐通道(Connaught Drive)。
由于首天公开售票反应热烈，主办公司新加坡GP昨天宣布，本月20日发售走动区门票和看台（Bay Grandstand）
套票当天，也同时发售因维修站出入口修改而需调整座席位置的第三转弯主看台的套票。
本报记者和摄影记者昨天一早，到指定的室内体育馆SISTIC售票处观察首日公开售票的情况，发现首个小时到Sistic柜台购票的公众只有4人，第五名F1迷则在早上10时30分后才出现。
主要是上网预订
据了解，去年新加坡F1大奖赛门市售票处卖出的票只占总交易的3%，其余主要是通过网上订票。
今年首日的售票情况也反映了人们主要上网预订，或通过海外售票经纪及电话预订中心购买。
新加坡GP公司执行董事罗切（Michael Roche）昨天傍晚发布文告说，预早购票的优惠获得赛车迷的热烈反应，这令人感到鼓舞。
改善后的售票系统及电话预订服务，也确保交易不发生状况。 昨早一早到指定售票处购票的两名F1迷说，他们是特地请了假，准备排队买票，之前还担心售票处出现人龙。他们对于能够通畅无阻地完成购票程序感到满意。
购买两张主看台套票的公众，在十分钟内便完成了交易。但如果买的票数太多，则得分几次完成交易，耗费的时间就比较长。
比如说昨天第一个购票的唐纳森（34岁）因为要买20张票，而售票规定每一次交易只能10张，所以他花了20分钟才完成交易。
吸取了去年网络超负荷，导致一些售票柜台人龙不散的经验，新加坡GP和SISTIC显然做足准备功夫，势必让本地和外国F1迷忘记去年苦候半天才买到门票的不愉快经验。
主办机构分两个阶段售票，昨天先发售主看台三天套票，本月20日再发售走动区门票和看台套票，以分散购票流量。
此外，新加坡GP在两个星期前还特别邀请了2000多名去年购买F1门票的公众，在14天里分别测试售票系统以及电话预订服务，确保订票程序顺畅。
有鉴于目前经济不景气，主办机构今年特别推出预早购票优惠价，主看台票价优惠折扣达100元至200元；走动区票价优惠折扣达10元至20元。在预早购票行动中推出市场的套票一共有7万2000套，比去年多出2000套。其中主看台套票占约3万9000张。
苏嘉力（25岁）昨早在室内体育馆购票处购买了三张总值1494元的主看台套票。
他受访时说，预早订购的原因是省钱，三张套票总共可节省300元。
我国政府把F1大奖赛带进来，一大目标是要把新加坡放在世界地图上，向全球展示新加坡的活力和精彩。去年，新加坡仅仅用了17个月的时间筹办世界首个夜间公路赛，赢得赛车界、国际F1迷和外国游客的一致好评，F1老板伯尼·埃克莱斯顿（Bernie Ecclestone）甚至称“新加坡是F1冠冕上的那颗宝石”。
活动区范围将受限制
为了更好地管理人流，主办机构今年将限定各活动区门票的活动范围。去年能全场走透透（除了名流包厢和维修楼）的走动区门票，今年已没有那么大的自由。整个赛道将划分为4个活动区，除了持有票价最贵的第一活动区门票的公众可以在各区穿梭，其余活动区门票都有限定活动的范围。
走动区三天套票，预早购票的优惠价和去年的原价一样，维持在168元。三天普通套票今年的订价为188元。单日的走动区门票优惠价则分别为28元、58元和108元。
第三转弯主看台套票优惠价为988元,只有预早订购的50%赛车迷能享有这个优惠。原价为1188元。
新航搭客可用手机办登机
（2009-04-11） 乘搭新加坡航空公司班机的乘客，现在可用手机办理登机手续。 新航日前发文告说，新推出的“SIA Mobile”手机登机服务，要使用这项服务的乘客，可在登机前48小时用上网手机登陆m.singaporeair.com网站，下载手机登机服务的程序，或直接在网上办理登机。手机办理登机手续时，也可以选定机位。
由于新航和另31家航空公司签署登机协议，乘搭新航者若须转乘这些公司的衔接航班，也可运用这项手机服务同时办理衔接航班的登机手续。
此外，乘客预料在今年内，也可通过这项手机服务订购机票。
不过，要使用这项新服务的搭客，必须拥有新加坡三家电信公司注册的手机，手机也必须具备上网功能。
新航产品及服务部高级副总裁叶锦华说，办理登机手续应该是简单和快捷的，新航的手机登机服务，将能满足乘客这方面的要求。
乘客可上网singaporeair.com/mobile了解更多详情。
由于新航和另31家航空公司签署登机协议，乘搭新航者若须转乘这些公司的衔接航班，也可运用这项手机服务同时办理衔接航班的登机手续。
此外，乘客预料在今年内，也可通过这项手机服务订购机票。
不过，要使用这项新服务的搭客，必须拥有新加坡三家电信公司注册的手机，手机也必须具备上网功能。
新航产品及服务部高级副总裁叶锦华说，办理登机手续应该是简单和快捷的，新航的手机登机服务，将能满足乘客这方面的要求。
乘客可上网singaporeair.com/mobile了解更多详情。
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
CapitaLand’s CEO raises stake in CapitaMall Trust
Posted by luxuryasiahome on April 7, 2009
CapitaLand’s CEO Liew Mun Leong has raised his stake in its unit, CapitaMall Trust, following the REIT’s recent rights issue.
Mr Liew almost doubled his interest in CapitaMall, increasing the number of shares held from 333,410 to 633,479.
That means he now holds about 0.02 per cent of CapitaMall, up from the previous stake of 0.0105 per cent.
Mr Liew is the deputy chairman and a non-executive director of CapitaMall.
Other top brass, like CapitaMall’s CEO Lim Beng Chee and independent non-executive director David Wong, have also increased their shares after the rights issue.
In February, CapitaMall said it would offer nine rights for every 10 existing units held. It said its S$1.23 billion rights issue has been oversubscribed.
Source : Channel NewsAsia - 7 Apr 2009
CapitaLand’s CEO Liew Mun Leong has raised his stake in its unit, CapitaMall Trust, following the REIT’s recent rights issue.
Mr Liew almost doubled his interest in CapitaMall, increasing the number of shares held from 333,410 to 633,479.
That means he now holds about 0.02 per cent of CapitaMall, up from the previous stake of 0.0105 per cent.
Mr Liew is the deputy chairman and a non-executive director of CapitaMall.
Other top brass, like CapitaMall’s CEO Lim Beng Chee and independent non-executive director David Wong, have also increased their shares after the rights issue.
In February, CapitaMall said it would offer nine rights for every 10 existing units held. It said its S$1.23 billion rights issue has been oversubscribed.
Source : Channel NewsAsia - 7 Apr 2009
Soros calls gain by US stocks since March a bear-market rally
Tuesday, 07 April 2009 15:12
GEORGE SOROS, THE billionaire hedge-fund manager who made money last year while most peers suffered losses, said the four-week rally by US stocks isn’t the start of a bull market because the economy is still shrinking.
“It’s a bear-market rally because we have not yet turned the economy around,” Soros, 78, said in an interview yesterday with Bloomberg Television, referring to a temporary rebound in stock prices. “This is not a financial crisis like all the other financial crises that we have experienced in our lifetime.”
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index of the largest US companies has gained 24% since March 9 on optimism that the worst of the 16-month US recession is over. The economy continues to contract, and there’s a risk the US falls into a depression, Soros said.
“As long as we deal with this in a multilateral and more or less coordinated way, I think we’ll get through,” he said.
Soros gave a mostly positive review of the President Barack Obama’s administration.
“He’s done very well in every area, except in dealing with the recapitalization of the banks and the restructuring of the mortgage market,” said Soros, who has published an updated paperback version of his book The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What It Means (Scribe Publications, 2009). “There, unfortunately, there’s just a little bit too much continuity with the previous administration.”
US stocks fell for the first time in five days yesterday on concern that government measures to shore up banks may not help as much as expected and loan losses will exceed levels from the Great Depression. Soros said the banking system is “seriously under water” with banks on “life support”.
‘Zombie’ Banks“They are weighed down by a lot of bad assets, which are still declining in value,” he said in the interview in his New York office. “The amount is difficult to estimate, but I think it’s in the region of maybe a trillion-and-a-half dollars.”
Soros said the change to fair-value accounting rules will keep troubled banks in business, stalling a US recovery.
“This is part of the muddling-through scenario where we are going to keep zombie banks alive,” Soros said. “It’s going to sap the energies of the economy.”
The Financial Accounting Standards Board last week relaxed so-called mark-to-market rules, allowing banks to use “significant” judgment in gauging prices of some investments on their books. While analysts said the measure may reduce writedowns and boost net income, investor advocates and accounting-industry groups said it will help financial institutions hide their true health.
Nationalisation Bugaboo
“This bugaboo of nationalizing the banks, which President Obama has determined not to do, the result is that we are nationalising only one side of the balance sheet,” Soros said. “We gradually take over the deficits on the balance sheet. But we are not actually going to benefit from the banks recovering.”
Money being injected into banks under government rescue programmes should be used to finance new lending, according to Soros. He said he participated in HSBC Holdings Plc’s rights offer, which raised about $17.7 billion last week.
Soros’s firm oversees US$21 billion. Its Quantum Endowment Fund returned 8% in 2008. That compared with an average loss of 19% by hedge funds, according to data compiled by Hedge Fund Research Inc. of Chicago. The fund is up 5.2% this year through February, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Soros was ranked as last year’s fourth-highest paid hedge fund manager with about US$1.1 billion, according to Institutional Investor’s Alpha magazine.
Hedge-Fund RegulationSoros said hedge funds should be regulated like other financial firms and that it would be appropriate for authorities to monitor positions to see whether some managers have “excessive exposure”.
The Group of 20 leaders said last week that they would extend oversight to all financial institutions deemed vital to global financial stability, including for the first time “systemically important” hedge funds. US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said last month he wants to bring hedge funds, private-equity firms and derivatives markets under federal supervision for the first time.
“The hedge funds that have used excessive leverage have actually failed or are on the way out, so I don’t think this is going to do any damage or hurt the hedge funds except for the fact that they have to fill out more forms,” Soros said.
“Recognising that markets are inherently unstable does require a different kind of regulation than we had in the past,” he said.
Hungarian Ruling
Soros’s Soros Fund Management LLC was last month fined 489 million forint (US$2.2 million) for attempting to manipulate the share price of OTP Bank Nyrt., Hungary’s largest bank, the country’s financial regulator said.
The Soros fund attempted on Oct 9 to “send out false or misleading signals about a security’s supply and demand or its share price” and short sold OTP shares, the regulator, known as PSZAF, said in a statement late yesterday. The short selling caused the shares to drop 14% in the final 30 minutes of trade, the regulator said. Soros apologised for the trade and said the fund had started an internal investigation.
Soros said that the US housing market hasn’t reached a trough, even as transactions in some areas such as California have increased.“There are some signs of hitting bottom, but we are not there yet,” he said. “A lot has been done to forestall foreclosures.”
China’s Stimulus
Hungarian-born Soros gained fame in the 1990s when he broke the Bank of England’s defense of the pound and drove the currency from Europe’s system of linked exchange rates. He also successfully bet that Germany’s mark would rise after the collapse of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and Japanese stocks would start to fall in the same year.
Soros said China’s economic growth will accelerate before the end of the year.
“They have a pretty big stimulus package,” he said. “They are going to use more, because not being a democracy, the leadership knows that their very survival, the avoidance of social unrest, requires them to generate growth.”
China’s economy in the fourth quarter grew 6.8% from the same period a year earlier, lagging the 9% expansion in all of 2008 and 13% in 2007. Industrial output growth slowed, forcing thousands of factories to close and leaving about 20 million migrant workers jobless.
Brazil’s economy will resume growth “relatively soon,” helped by Chinese demand for iron ore and soybeans, Soros said.
“I think Brazil actually, together with China, will be among the recovering countries. I think the outlook for Brazil is better than for most other countries.”
Stock gain is ‘dead cat bounce’
Wednesday, 08 April 2009 11:40
The rally in global stocks over the past month is a “dead cat bounce,” as companies report “terrible” earnings this year and the global recession persists, Aberdeen Asset Management Plc said, reported Bloomberg.
Investors should instead focus on companies with strong balance sheets and sustainable business models that can weather the “severe recession”, Hugh Young, who oversees about US$37 billion as managing director of Aberdeen Asset’s Asian unit, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. He favors regional financial companies and holds stakes in Singapore’s Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. and United Overseas Bank. The MSCI World Index fell 0.4% as of 9:54 am in Singapore trading, taking its losses this week to 2.9%. Global stocks had rallied 23% in the previous four weeks amid speculation that government stimulus efforts will mitigate the recession. “It does feel very much like a dead cat bounce if you like, or a bear market rally,” Young said. “The fundamentals for the stocks we’re looking at are not improving and this year is going to be pretty bloody for earnings, if not into next year as well.” Investor Marc Faber, who recommended buying US stocks before the steepest rally in more than 70 years, yesterday said he expects the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to retreat as much as 10% before resuming gains. George Soros, the billionaire hedge-fund manager, also said this week the four-week rally in US stocks isn’t the start of a bull market because the economy is still contracting. Still, losses in the past year means stocks are trading at “comfortable valuations”, allowing Aberdeen to add to its holdings as prices decline, Young added. The MSCI World Index is valued at 13 times reported earnings, almost half its 10-year average multiple of 22 times.
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
‘Resistance level’ for condo-style HDB flats: $500,000
Posted by luxuryasiahome on April 7, 2009
THE tightening property market and demand for smaller homes have created a dilemma for the HDB’s design, build and sell scheme (DBSS) - price flats over $500,000 and buyers could stay away.
That price point has been cited as the ‘resistance level’ for home seekers with less cash to spend but a wealth of options in a buyer’s market.
Experts said DBSS homes - public flats designed, built and sold by private developers - are sandwiched in a fast- narrowing price gap between private condominiums and HDB flats.
To move units, these condo-style homes will have to be priced at about $500,000 or less - under an equivalent- sized flat in a private condo - but that may erode any profits for the developers.
‘These are the same people who will buy your resale HDB flat,’ said Knight Frank director Nicholas Mak.
PropNex chief executive Mohamed Ismail agreed: ‘The resistance level of HDB buyers is around the $500,000 level. If they are going to be priced above $450 per sq ft (psf), they may face resistance.
‘Buyers may head for the private market where they can get better value for $500 psf to just below $600 psf.’
Mass-market condos that offer full facilities, such as Rosewood Suites in Woodlands and Caspian in Jurong, have units in that price range. Developers have lowered their prices of some mass-market projects by 20 to 25 per cent while HDB resale prices are also falling, though at a slower pace.
Two DBSS projects are expected to be released for sale this month. The first is a 1,203-unit project in Toa Payoh with three-, four- and five-room flats.
And Parc Lumiere in Simei will have 360 units - 120 four-room and 240 five- room flats. A Hoi Hup-led consortium won the tender for the Toa Payoh site at about $160 psf per plot ratio last August, while Sim Lian won the Simei site at $137 psf last June.
Mr Mak estimated the break-even price of the Toa Payoh project at $430 psf to $460 psf and a bit less at Parc Lumiere - $400 psf to $440 psf.
‘Demand for DBSS flats depends a lot on the price,’ said Associate Professor Sing Tien Foo from the National University of Singapore’s real estate department.
The price has to be much lower than that for private flats as there are restrictions involved, particularly on buyers’ income.
Assuming a buyer has a monthly household income of $8,000 - the ceiling for a DBSS flat purchase - and negligible savings, he could take up an 80 per cent loan over 20 years to buy a DBSS flat costing at most $550,000, he said.
The first DBSS project, launched at the end of 2006 when private condos were moving beyond the reach of many HDB upgraders, was an instant hit.
Five-room units were priced at just $308,000 to $450,000, compared with close to $700,000 and more at the other three DBSS projects. The latest - Natura Loft in Bishan - recently ran big advertisements to market its unsold units.
‘There are pros and cons to buying a DBSS flat. It is good for people who do not want to pay for facilities. Condos have a lot of facilities but you have to pay a higher maintenance fee,’ said Prof Sing.
The problem now is that DBSS flat developers have cost constraints and may not be able to lower their prices to a level attractive to HDB buyers, he said.
These developers rushed into the market during the boom, thinking it was a sure-win product. Their risks are keenly felt now that the market has come down considerably, experts said.
‘At the end of the day, people must remember that DBSS flats are essentially an HDB product,’ said Mr Mak. ‘They will likely go through what ECs (executive condominiums) went through until the market recovers.’
Such condos were very hot at one point before demand slumped. ‘The down market just makes it harder for DBSS to differentiate itself,’ said Prof Sing.
Source : Straits Times - 7 Apr 2009
THE tightening property market and demand for smaller homes have created a dilemma for the HDB’s design, build and sell scheme (DBSS) - price flats over $500,000 and buyers could stay away.
That price point has been cited as the ‘resistance level’ for home seekers with less cash to spend but a wealth of options in a buyer’s market.
Experts said DBSS homes - public flats designed, built and sold by private developers - are sandwiched in a fast- narrowing price gap between private condominiums and HDB flats.
To move units, these condo-style homes will have to be priced at about $500,000 or less - under an equivalent- sized flat in a private condo - but that may erode any profits for the developers.
‘These are the same people who will buy your resale HDB flat,’ said Knight Frank director Nicholas Mak.
PropNex chief executive Mohamed Ismail agreed: ‘The resistance level of HDB buyers is around the $500,000 level. If they are going to be priced above $450 per sq ft (psf), they may face resistance.
‘Buyers may head for the private market where they can get better value for $500 psf to just below $600 psf.’
Mass-market condos that offer full facilities, such as Rosewood Suites in Woodlands and Caspian in Jurong, have units in that price range. Developers have lowered their prices of some mass-market projects by 20 to 25 per cent while HDB resale prices are also falling, though at a slower pace.
Two DBSS projects are expected to be released for sale this month. The first is a 1,203-unit project in Toa Payoh with three-, four- and five-room flats.
And Parc Lumiere in Simei will have 360 units - 120 four-room and 240 five- room flats. A Hoi Hup-led consortium won the tender for the Toa Payoh site at about $160 psf per plot ratio last August, while Sim Lian won the Simei site at $137 psf last June.
Mr Mak estimated the break-even price of the Toa Payoh project at $430 psf to $460 psf and a bit less at Parc Lumiere - $400 psf to $440 psf.
‘Demand for DBSS flats depends a lot on the price,’ said Associate Professor Sing Tien Foo from the National University of Singapore’s real estate department.
The price has to be much lower than that for private flats as there are restrictions involved, particularly on buyers’ income.
Assuming a buyer has a monthly household income of $8,000 - the ceiling for a DBSS flat purchase - and negligible savings, he could take up an 80 per cent loan over 20 years to buy a DBSS flat costing at most $550,000, he said.
The first DBSS project, launched at the end of 2006 when private condos were moving beyond the reach of many HDB upgraders, was an instant hit.
Five-room units were priced at just $308,000 to $450,000, compared with close to $700,000 and more at the other three DBSS projects. The latest - Natura Loft in Bishan - recently ran big advertisements to market its unsold units.
‘There are pros and cons to buying a DBSS flat. It is good for people who do not want to pay for facilities. Condos have a lot of facilities but you have to pay a higher maintenance fee,’ said Prof Sing.
The problem now is that DBSS flat developers have cost constraints and may not be able to lower their prices to a level attractive to HDB buyers, he said.
These developers rushed into the market during the boom, thinking it was a sure-win product. Their risks are keenly felt now that the market has come down considerably, experts said.
‘At the end of the day, people must remember that DBSS flats are essentially an HDB product,’ said Mr Mak. ‘They will likely go through what ECs (executive condominiums) went through until the market recovers.’
Such condos were very hot at one point before demand slumped. ‘The down market just makes it harder for DBSS to differentiate itself,’ said Prof Sing.
Source : Straits Times - 7 Apr 2009
Asian stocks set for ‘multi-month’ rally: Technical analysis
Tuesday, 07 April 2009 09:25
Asian stocks may gain at least 15% during a “multi-month” rally, based on chart formations that predicted this year’s rebound for Chinese shares, Elliott Wave International Inc. said, reported Bloomberg.
The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index has broken above its upper trend line after completing the final leg in a “five-wave decline,” Elliott Wave International said in its April Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast report. The index may rebound at least 38% from its March lows to around 100, based on a so-called Fibonacci chart, and rise to as high as 122, it said.
“Such a breakout helped to identify the start of a bull market in China back in December,” Elliott Wave International said. “Prices in the rest of the region should now advance in a similar fashion.”
The MSCI Asian index has rallied 22% since tumbling to 70.60 on March 9, the lowest in five and a half years, on speculation that governments worldwide will step up efforts to bolster global economic growth. The measure is still 52% lower than its November 2007 peak.
Elliott Wave Theory, created by US market analyst Ralph Elliott in 1938, attempts to predict future price moves by dividing past trends into sections, or waves, and calculating changes in value.
The ratios used in Fibonacci analysis are based on the sequence identified by Italian mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci in the 13th century and used to predict support and resistance levels for prices.
Asian stocks may gain at least 15% during a “multi-month” rally, based on chart formations that predicted this year’s rebound for Chinese shares, Elliott Wave International Inc. said, reported Bloomberg.
The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index has broken above its upper trend line after completing the final leg in a “five-wave decline,” Elliott Wave International said in its April Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast report. The index may rebound at least 38% from its March lows to around 100, based on a so-called Fibonacci chart, and rise to as high as 122, it said.
“Such a breakout helped to identify the start of a bull market in China back in December,” Elliott Wave International said. “Prices in the rest of the region should now advance in a similar fashion.”
The MSCI Asian index has rallied 22% since tumbling to 70.60 on March 9, the lowest in five and a half years, on speculation that governments worldwide will step up efforts to bolster global economic growth. The measure is still 52% lower than its November 2007 peak.
Elliott Wave Theory, created by US market analyst Ralph Elliott in 1938, attempts to predict future price moves by dividing past trends into sections, or waves, and calculating changes in value.
The ratios used in Fibonacci analysis are based on the sequence identified by Italian mathematician Leonardo Fibonacci in the 13th century and used to predict support and resistance levels for prices.
Stocks may see ‘correction’ of 10%, Marc Faber says
Tuesday, 07 April 2009 11:17 Share this Digg Del.icio.us StumbleUpon Netscape Yahoo Technorati Googlize this FacebookExport PDFPrintE-mail
Global stocks may drop as much as 10% in a “correction” following gains in the last four weeks, before rebounding after July, investor Marc Faber said. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may decline to around 750 before further gains in July, Faber, 63, said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Singapore. That’s a drop of 10% from yesterday’s close. Stocks in the US and other global markets are unlikely to fall below their October and November lows, he added. “After the rally since March 6, we need some kind of correction, maybe around 5 to 10%, and after that we can maybe rally more into July,” said Faber, the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report. “The economic news, while it won’t be good, the rate of getting worse will slow down.” Faber on March 9 advised investors to buy US stocks, saying government actions will boost equities. The S&P 500 has since rallied 25% from a 12-year low through last week, the steepest rally since 1938, as rising home sales and durable- goods orders signal a bottoming in the US economy. Gains may be halted by unemployment, consumer debt and concern banks will be forced to write down more loans. Faber told investors to abandon US stocks a week before 1987’s so-called Black Monday crash and said in August 2007 that US shares were entering a bear market. The S&P 500 peaked at 1,565.15 in October of that year before retreating as much as 57%.
COMMODITIES,
BANKSFaber said he had bought some commodity producers in November and is now less favorable on these companies with some stocks more than doubling. He has also bought some bank stocks and predicted that Citigroup Inc. shares could “easily rebound” to around US$5 a share from US$2.72 currently. “The rebound potential for financials is quite high,” Faber said. In Asia, stocks offer “much better value” than US shares, and investors should seize the opportunity to buy the region’s equities on “every setback,” he added. “If you buy Asian equities in the next three months, over the next five to 10 years, for sure you will make money,” Faber said. Faber is less favourable on bonds, saying they are entering a “long-term bear market” that can last for the next 15 years to 20 years.
Monday, April 6, 2009
SAP AG completes successful private placement transaction
04/04/2009 11:28 (1 Day 23:14 minutes ago) The FINANCIAL -- SAP AG (NYSE: SAP) on April 3 announced the successful placement of a "Schuldschein" (private placement transaction) in the amount of approximately €660 million on the Euro denominated capital markets. Lead managers were Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg LBBW (Technical Lead), Commerzbank AG, Deutsche Bank AG, and DZ Bank AG Deutsche Zentral-Genossenschaftsbank.
Werner Brandt, CFO SAP AG: "The transaction was significantly oversubscribed. Also the margin was fixed at the lower end of the spread band. Considering the current difficult and volatile conditions in capital markets, this successful transaction underscores SAP´s strong position in the financial market."
美国3月份失业率升至8.5%创25年新高
1983, as the recession continues to savage the labour force, official data revealed yesterday. 昨日公布的官方数据显示，随着经济衰退继续严重冲击劳动力市场，3月份美国失业率已上升至8.5%，达到1983年以来的最高水平。 Non-farm payrolls shed 663,000 jobs in March, in line with economists' expectations, bringing the losses since the recession began in December 2007 to 5.1m – almost two-thirds of them over the past five months. 今年3月份美国非农就业人数减少了66.3万，与经济学家的预期一致。这样，自2007年12月衰退开始以来，非农就业人数已减少510万，其中有近三分之二是在过去5个月里减少的。 “The loss of jobs thus far into the recession has been staggering,” said Joseph Brusuelas, director of Moody's Economy.com, who predicts that unemployment will peak at 10 per cent by the middle of next year. “It looks like the most intense phase is upon us, but losses will continue well past the time we've entered recovery.” 穆迪(Moddy's) 旗下Economy.com网站主管约瑟夫•布鲁修拉斯(Joseph Brusuelas)表示：“进入衰退期以来的失业形势令人惊愕。”他预测到明年年中，美国失业率将达到10%的峰值。“看上去我们似乎正在经历最严峻的阶段，但即使我们进入经济复苏期，失业也仍将持续一段时间。” The unemployment rate is fast approaching recent government estimates for the full year. 美国失业率正迅速接近其政府最近发布的全年预测。 In January, the Federal Open Market Committee predicted it would hit 8.5-8.8 per cent in the fourth quarter, before falling to 8.0-8.3 per cent by the end of 2010. 今年1月份，美联储公开市场委员会(FOMC)预计，失业率将在第四季度达到8.5%至8.8%，并在2010年年底回落至8.0%至8.3%。
译者/管婧
译者/管婧
Survival of Frasers Commercial at stake: Auditors
Posted by luxuryasiahome on April 4, 2009
FRASERS Commercial Trust (FCOT) is in big trouble over its hefty borrowings.
Its survival as a going concern will depend on whether it can refinance debts totalling $550 million, the bulk of which is due in four months.
This was the warning from external auditors KPMG, accompanying the trust’s annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2008.
In its report, KPMG noted that the current liabilities of the group and the trust exceeded the current assets by $597 million and $623 million, respectively.
‘This arose principally due to loan notes issued by the group and the trust totalling $550 million, of which $400 million matures on July 31, 2009, while the remaining $150 million matures on Dec 31, 2009.’
The trust manager is currently negotiating with financial institutions to refinance the entire $550 million.
‘These conditions indicate the existence of a material uncertainty which may cast significant doubt on the group’s and trust’s ability to continue as a going concern,’ KPMG noted.
Although its situation is dire, analysts do not believe FCOT will go under as it is likely to be supported by parent Fraser & Neave (F&N).
In November last year, F&N loaned FCOT $70 million to repay loan notes issued to Australia’s Commonwealth Bank.
To alleviate its debt burden, FCOT, formerly known as Allco Commercial Reit, will have to shed some of its assets.
It had earlier said it might sell assets in Japan and Australia worth over $98 million as it restructures its portfolio following a strategic review.
FCOT units yesterday rose 1.5 cents or 10.3 per cent to 16 cents, riding on a broad stock market rally.
Source : Straits Times - 4 Apr 2009
FRASERS Commercial Trust (FCOT) is in big trouble over its hefty borrowings.
Its survival as a going concern will depend on whether it can refinance debts totalling $550 million, the bulk of which is due in four months.
This was the warning from external auditors KPMG, accompanying the trust’s annual report for the year ended Dec 31, 2008.
In its report, KPMG noted that the current liabilities of the group and the trust exceeded the current assets by $597 million and $623 million, respectively.
‘This arose principally due to loan notes issued by the group and the trust totalling $550 million, of which $400 million matures on July 31, 2009, while the remaining $150 million matures on Dec 31, 2009.’
The trust manager is currently negotiating with financial institutions to refinance the entire $550 million.
‘These conditions indicate the existence of a material uncertainty which may cast significant doubt on the group’s and trust’s ability to continue as a going concern,’ KPMG noted.
Although its situation is dire, analysts do not believe FCOT will go under as it is likely to be supported by parent Fraser & Neave (F&N).
In November last year, F&N loaned FCOT $70 million to repay loan notes issued to Australia’s Commonwealth Bank.
To alleviate its debt burden, FCOT, formerly known as Allco Commercial Reit, will have to shed some of its assets.
It had earlier said it might sell assets in Japan and Australia worth over $98 million as it restructures its portfolio following a strategic review.
FCOT units yesterday rose 1.5 cents or 10.3 per cent to 16 cents, riding on a broad stock market rally.
Source : Straits Times - 4 Apr 2009
Sunday, April 5, 2009
陶冬 - 增風險胃納資金試水 改遊戲規則銀行受惠
2009/04/05 ｜ 加入書籤｜ 轉寄本文
G20峰會取得了預料之外的進展，加上美國經濟數據改善，資金的風險胃納增強（瑞信的風險意識圖去年九月以來首次離開恐慌區），資金流出國債，股市和商品價格上升。歐洲央行降息幅度小過預期，也沒有削弱資金入市的興趣。 IMF拋售黃金，打壓了金價走勢，但全球復甦的希望帶動了商品價格的上揚，農產品價格也有顯著提高。
G20的共同聲明承諾動用1.1萬億美元刺激經濟，筆者相信此數的實際意義不大。各國救市多已使出全力，只有個別國家（如日本）會有新的擴張措施出台。反而G20為IMF注資，是更重要的發展。 ＩＭＦ有5000億新資金在手，在穩定新興市場經濟（尤其是東歐）、防止危機擴散上可以做的更多。
上週另一項進展可能對金融、經濟前景有更大的影響。美國財務會計委員會通過決議，放寬對有毒資產“按市值計價”的入帳要求。此舉修改了遊戲規則，好似作弊，但可能對製止有毒資產不斷製造金融業巨額虧損有幫助，可能對穩定市場信心有幫助。
日本銀行在周二以及英格蘭銀行在周四開會，但利率都不會動，英國在數量擴張上有無變化則值得留意。澳大利亞週二則可能降息0.5%。週三日本的短觀及經常項目是本週的看點，週四日本的三月機械訂單對把握日本經濟的脈搏很重要。美國本周無重要數據出台。
(本欄每星期日在此博客登出，週一早上於CCTV2證券時間出現。以上觀點僅為個人對市場的看法，並非任何投資勸誘或建議)
G20峰會取得了預料之外的進展，加上美國經濟數據改善，資金的風險胃納增強（瑞信的風險意識圖去年九月以來首次離開恐慌區），資金流出國債，股市和商品價格上升。歐洲央行降息幅度小過預期，也沒有削弱資金入市的興趣。 IMF拋售黃金，打壓了金價走勢，但全球復甦的希望帶動了商品價格的上揚，農產品價格也有顯著提高。
G20的共同聲明承諾動用1.1萬億美元刺激經濟，筆者相信此數的實際意義不大。各國救市多已使出全力，只有個別國家（如日本）會有新的擴張措施出台。反而G20為IMF注資，是更重要的發展。 ＩＭＦ有5000億新資金在手，在穩定新興市場經濟（尤其是東歐）、防止危機擴散上可以做的更多。
上週另一項進展可能對金融、經濟前景有更大的影響。美國財務會計委員會通過決議，放寬對有毒資產“按市值計價”的入帳要求。此舉修改了遊戲規則，好似作弊，但可能對製止有毒資產不斷製造金融業巨額虧損有幫助，可能對穩定市場信心有幫助。
日本銀行在周二以及英格蘭銀行在周四開會，但利率都不會動，英國在數量擴張上有無變化則值得留意。澳大利亞週二則可能降息0.5%。週三日本的短觀及經常項目是本週的看點，週四日本的三月機械訂單對把握日本經濟的脈搏很重要。美國本周無重要數據出台。
(本欄每星期日在此博客登出，週一早上於CCTV2證券時間出現。以上觀點僅為個人對市場的看法，並非任何投資勸誘或建議)
Friday, April 3, 2009
Residential property market likely to bottom next year: Merrill Lynch
Thursday, 02 April 2009 18:10
Singapore’s residential property market is likely to bottom only at some point of time in 2010, says a new report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
The US investment bank noted that although local residential prices have already fallen 21% from the peak in mid-2008, they are likely to fall at least another 30% this year and a further 10% early next year before they stabilise.
Indeed, Merrill Lynch’s local property analysts warn that based on the flash estimates for Jan-March 2009 quarter, residential property price declines this year could be more severe than they are expect.
Earlier this week, the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) released a flash estimate of the 1Q09 residential property price index. Prices fell by 13.8% q-o-q compared to a 6.1% q-o-q decline in the previous quarter of 4Q08.
The recent price declines were most pronounced in the prime areas and the mid-market segments. Less severe declines were noticed in the mass-market segment which did not escape unscathed, declining 7.5% q-o-q.
Overall property prices have now returned to early 2007 levels and have completely wiped out the spectacular gains between early-2007 and mid-2008 when the market last turned its course.
The Merrill Lynch report also noted that residential property volumes are a leading indicator of pricing.
“Historically, once volumes collapse, it takes another three to four quarters of correction before market pricing forms a base,” the report said. “If the higher transaction volumes (that) we saw in 1Q09 remain sustainable, this would imply that volumes bottomed in 4Q08 and prices will trough in 2010.”
The only one property stock that Merrill likes is CapitaLand with a price target of $2.45“ given its financial flexibility to weather the storm” post-equity raising.
Merrill has a “neutral” rating on City Development and an “underperform” (its equivalent of a “sell”) rating on Keppel Land.
Singapore’s residential property market is likely to bottom only at some point of time in 2010, says a new report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
The US investment bank noted that although local residential prices have already fallen 21% from the peak in mid-2008, they are likely to fall at least another 30% this year and a further 10% early next year before they stabilise.
Indeed, Merrill Lynch’s local property analysts warn that based on the flash estimates for Jan-March 2009 quarter, residential property price declines this year could be more severe than they are expect.
Earlier this week, the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) released a flash estimate of the 1Q09 residential property price index. Prices fell by 13.8% q-o-q compared to a 6.1% q-o-q decline in the previous quarter of 4Q08.
The recent price declines were most pronounced in the prime areas and the mid-market segments. Less severe declines were noticed in the mass-market segment which did not escape unscathed, declining 7.5% q-o-q.
Overall property prices have now returned to early 2007 levels and have completely wiped out the spectacular gains between early-2007 and mid-2008 when the market last turned its course.
The Merrill Lynch report also noted that residential property volumes are a leading indicator of pricing.
“Historically, once volumes collapse, it takes another three to four quarters of correction before market pricing forms a base,” the report said. “If the higher transaction volumes (that) we saw in 1Q09 remain sustainable, this would imply that volumes bottomed in 4Q08 and prices will trough in 2010.”
The only one property stock that Merrill likes is CapitaLand with a price target of $2.45“ given its financial flexibility to weather the storm” post-equity raising.
Merrill has a “neutral” rating on City Development and an “underperform” (its equivalent of a “sell”) rating on Keppel Land.
Thursday, April 2, 2009
34年来最大跌幅 私宅价格首季猛挫13.8％
（2009-04-02）
● 龚慧婷 在全球金融海啸和我国经济衰退的连串打击下，楼市终于招架不住，今年第一季的楼价猛跌，创下有史以来跌幅最大的一个季度。
最新的官方数据显示，我国私宅价格在今年第一季就下跌了13.8％，是近34年来最大的跌幅。市区重建局是在1975年第二季开始公布私宅价格变化的数据。
根据市区重建局的初步数据，新加坡私宅价格指数连续第三个季度下滑，私宅价格从去年第三季开始下滑2.4％，去年第四季又跌6.1％，到今年第一季不但无法止跌，还以更快速度滑落，由162.8点跌至140.3点。这意味着楼价已跌破07年第二季的水平。
以跌幅来说，在亚洲金融危机时，本地私宅价格也曾在98年第三季下跌13.2％。
市场人士认为，数个月的房市“严冬”，终于让卖主和发展商开始在现实面前“低头”，开始以大幅削价来刺激房市恢复蓬勃生机。
高力国际研究部主管郑惠匀表示，去年第四季和今年1月份，环球经济迅速下滑、信贷市场和就业市场恶化，新私宅单位的销售市场几乎静止，相信这是让价格过后下跌的原因。
3月份，发展商就以吸引人的价格，推出的新项目、单位或重新推出的项目，就包括水之轩(Caspian)、Double Bay Residences、莉雅苑(Livia)和The Quartz等。
以星狮地产的水之轩来说，这个西部共管公寓以每平方英尺580元“开跑”，价格比隔邻西湖园(The Lakeshore)的二手单位价格，足足便宜了20％。国浩置地也一口气削价8.5％，以每平方英尺平均595元，来重新推出The Quartz的剩余182个单位。
郑惠匀说：“发展商大幅削价的作法取得成效，吸引买家进场。在今年第一季，估计发展商售出的新单位就超过2100个。这是市场在97年第四季受美国次贷危机影响以来，最高的销售量，也比去年第四季出售的新单位，多了四倍以上。”
Orange Tee执行董事陈道俊也认同。他表示，发展商减少盈利空间，以更诱人的价格推出项目，或大幅削价来重新推出项目，以达到“清货”的目的，是导致代表中档领域的其余中央地区（RCR）这一回出现价格最大滑坡的原因。RCR的价格下跌了17.2％。去年第四季的跌幅是6.2％。 市建局昨天的数据也显示，代表高档领域的核心中央地区（CCR）公寓价格，也在今年第一季下跌了15.2％，也比去年第四季的6.5％跌幅明显加快许多，两个地区的跌幅也从单位数上涨到双位数。
● 龚慧婷 在全球金融海啸和我国经济衰退的连串打击下，楼市终于招架不住，今年第一季的楼价猛跌，创下有史以来跌幅最大的一个季度。
最新的官方数据显示，我国私宅价格在今年第一季就下跌了13.8％，是近34年来最大的跌幅。市区重建局是在1975年第二季开始公布私宅价格变化的数据。
根据市区重建局的初步数据，新加坡私宅价格指数连续第三个季度下滑，私宅价格从去年第三季开始下滑2.4％，去年第四季又跌6.1％，到今年第一季不但无法止跌，还以更快速度滑落，由162.8点跌至140.3点。这意味着楼价已跌破07年第二季的水平。
以跌幅来说，在亚洲金融危机时，本地私宅价格也曾在98年第三季下跌13.2％。
市场人士认为，数个月的房市“严冬”，终于让卖主和发展商开始在现实面前“低头”，开始以大幅削价来刺激房市恢复蓬勃生机。
高力国际研究部主管郑惠匀表示，去年第四季和今年1月份，环球经济迅速下滑、信贷市场和就业市场恶化，新私宅单位的销售市场几乎静止，相信这是让价格过后下跌的原因。
3月份，发展商就以吸引人的价格，推出的新项目、单位或重新推出的项目，就包括水之轩(Caspian)、Double Bay Residences、莉雅苑(Livia)和The Quartz等。
以星狮地产的水之轩来说，这个西部共管公寓以每平方英尺580元“开跑”，价格比隔邻西湖园(The Lakeshore)的二手单位价格，足足便宜了20％。国浩置地也一口气削价8.5％，以每平方英尺平均595元，来重新推出The Quartz的剩余182个单位。
郑惠匀说：“发展商大幅削价的作法取得成效，吸引买家进场。在今年第一季，估计发展商售出的新单位就超过2100个。这是市场在97年第四季受美国次贷危机影响以来，最高的销售量，也比去年第四季出售的新单位，多了四倍以上。”
Orange Tee执行董事陈道俊也认同。他表示，发展商减少盈利空间，以更诱人的价格推出项目，或大幅削价来重新推出项目，以达到“清货”的目的，是导致代表中档领域的其余中央地区（RCR）这一回出现价格最大滑坡的原因。RCR的价格下跌了17.2％。去年第四季的跌幅是6.2％。 市建局昨天的数据也显示，代表高档领域的核心中央地区（CCR）公寓价格，也在今年第一季下跌了15.2％，也比去年第四季的6.5％跌幅明显加快许多，两个地区的跌幅也从单位数上涨到双位数。
5月30日本地演唱会 郭富城将把健力士舞台带来
黄靖晶(2009-03-06)
郭富城这个450度旋转舞台是目前全球演唱会中最大的旋转舞台。
香港“四大天王”之一郭富城，将把他荣获健力士榜的450度旋转舞台带来新加坡，5月底在本地举行“舞林正传世界巡回演唱会”。
郭富城在2007年11月至2008年2月期间，在香港共开了16场“舞林正传演唱会”，接着在上海、海南岛及台湾小巨蛋演出，他在450度旋转舞台的表演让人叹为观止。这个450度旋转舞台去年2月向健力士总部申报，经过英国总部5个月的审批后，列入健力士纪录，成为全球演唱会中最大的旋转舞台。
演唱会采用旋转舞台的概念，其中旋转的意义代表郭富城的演艺历程不断转变和具备多面体与多元化的意思。
为前排观众准备雨衣
郭富城除了克服在旋转舞台翩然起舞的各种难度，他还呈献了如体操舞曲、360度活动方块旋转跳和水花舞林等各式舞蹈。在编舞方面，郭富城找来为贾斯汀（Justin Timberlake）、碧昂丝（Beyonce）等著名美国歌手编舞的知名编舞家Bobby Newberry，为其演唱会的主题歌“舞林正传”编舞。
郭富城除了克服在旋转舞台翩然起舞的各种难度，他还将呈献如体操舞曲、360度活动方块旋转跳和水花舞林等各式舞蹈。
服装方面，郭富城走立体风，突显舞台旋转时的多角度效果，像“金粉胶壳装”和“闪石攻城装”。
郭富城之前在香港演唱会上，除了表演双杠体操和彩带舞外，还有一个表演环节是在观众席前的“水道”大洒水花，与前排观众一起“湿身”，甚至有观众打开雨伞。
据说，本地观众也有机会体验这个表演，主办单位也将分发雨衣给前排观众，让他们与郭富城和舞蹈员们同乐。
郭富城舞林正传世界巡回演唱会
日期：5月30日（星期六）时间：晚上8时地点：新加坡室内体育馆票价：$88、$148、$188、$208、$248
郭富城这个450度旋转舞台是目前全球演唱会中最大的旋转舞台。
香港“四大天王”之一郭富城，将把他荣获健力士榜的450度旋转舞台带来新加坡，5月底在本地举行“舞林正传世界巡回演唱会”。
郭富城在2007年11月至2008年2月期间，在香港共开了16场“舞林正传演唱会”，接着在上海、海南岛及台湾小巨蛋演出，他在450度旋转舞台的表演让人叹为观止。这个450度旋转舞台去年2月向健力士总部申报，经过英国总部5个月的审批后，列入健力士纪录，成为全球演唱会中最大的旋转舞台。
演唱会采用旋转舞台的概念，其中旋转的意义代表郭富城的演艺历程不断转变和具备多面体与多元化的意思。
为前排观众准备雨衣
郭富城除了克服在旋转舞台翩然起舞的各种难度，他还呈献了如体操舞曲、360度活动方块旋转跳和水花舞林等各式舞蹈。在编舞方面，郭富城找来为贾斯汀（Justin Timberlake）、碧昂丝（Beyonce）等著名美国歌手编舞的知名编舞家Bobby Newberry，为其演唱会的主题歌“舞林正传”编舞。
郭富城除了克服在旋转舞台翩然起舞的各种难度，他还将呈献如体操舞曲、360度活动方块旋转跳和水花舞林等各式舞蹈。
服装方面，郭富城走立体风，突显舞台旋转时的多角度效果，像“金粉胶壳装”和“闪石攻城装”。
郭富城之前在香港演唱会上，除了表演双杠体操和彩带舞外，还有一个表演环节是在观众席前的“水道”大洒水花，与前排观众一起“湿身”，甚至有观众打开雨伞。
据说，本地观众也有机会体验这个表演，主办单位也将分发雨衣给前排观众，让他们与郭富城和舞蹈员们同乐。
郭富城舞林正传世界巡回演唱会
日期：5月30日（星期六）时间：晚上8时地点：新加坡室内体育馆票价：$88、$148、$188、$208、$248
DJ MARKET TALK: S'pore Property Stocks Near Trough
02 Apr 2009 09:17 CST - JPMorgan 0117 GMT [Dow Jones] Despite mixed signals from the Singapore property market, property stocks may be near bottoming, says JPMorgan. "We believe that we are near the trough of the down-cycle for property stocks and investors are reasonably compensated for holding onto the larger, more liquid property developers and S-REITs at these levels." Says absorption of substantial potential supply of new homes and prime grade CBD office space is needed to establish market equilibrium. But says Singapore property developers trading at 54% discount to net asset value, reflecting elevated risk premium. Notes Singapore property stocks outperformed Singapore market by 3.9% in March despite weak property data during that time, says this is as expected given their higher betas. Recommends Ascendas REIT (A17U.SG), City Developments (C09.SG) preferred medium-term picks. FTSE ST Real Estate index +2.1% vs FTSE ST All Share index +1.7%. (KIG)
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
朱洛夫：金價可能漲到每盎司6000美元 ( 2009/03/04 )
瑞士投資家朱洛夫（Felix W. Zulauf）小檔案_朱洛夫 [ 隱藏 ] ◎國籍：瑞士 ◎出生：1950年
◎投資資歷：35年
◎經歷： 瑞士聯合銀行（Union Bank of Switzerland, UBS）基金經理人、全球投資委員會主席
◎現職：朱洛夫資產管理公司負責人（Zulauf Asset Management AG），管理資產規模近30億美元（約合新台幣960億元）
瑞士投資大師朱洛夫預測，以美國政府龐大的救市方案，聯邦準備理事會（Fed）負債突然暴增，如果將這些新增負債全數以黃金來提足準備，那麼黃金價格可能暴漲到每盎司6,000美元！
瑞士投資大師朱洛夫（Felix W. Zulauf） 又有驚人的觀點。他預測，以美國政府龐大的救市方案，聯邦準備理事會（Fed）負債突然暴增，如果將這些新增負債全數以黃金來提足準備，那麼黃金價格可能暴漲到每盎司6,000美元！
惡性通膨魔鬼逼近！
朱洛夫的警語，除了看好黃金投資機會，更讓全球的投資界突然警醒：潛在惡性通貨膨脹隱憂已經浮現，當全世界投資人為了股價重挫、失業激增，可能引發通貨緊縮而憂心忡忡時，惡性通膨的魔鬼，其實，已經悄悄逼近，你該如何因應？
朱洛夫是低調的投資大師，他在瑞士的資產管理公司，旗下基金去年第4季、今年以來，都能繳出正報酬成績單。他在1987年，曾準確預測美國股市崩盤、日經指數會暴跌腰斬；1997年，率先看出亞洲國家將發生金融危機；去年又發出警訊，認為美國政府至少花費一兆美元，才能防堵金融體系崩潰。他是投資週刊《霸榮》（Barron's）圓桌會議的長期貴賓，受到國際投資專家共同的推崇與尊敬。
2006年就已經陸續出脫長線持股的朱洛夫，對2009年前景仍不樂觀。他認為，美國和歐洲政府大力撒錢，提出史無前例超大規模的財政刺激方案後，全球經濟將面臨「軟性衰退」（the Soft Depression）：
1.S&P500股價指數可能再跌35%，至550點左右；
2.歷經數10年的全球化潮流可能逆轉；
3.銀行國有化的潮流，將從英美國家擴散到開發中國家；
4.部分歐洲國家將退出歐元體系；
5.黃金是最佳的長期投資工具。
《Smart智富》月刊曾在去年9月報導朱洛夫的預測。當時，他鼓勵投資人持有2年期以下的美國國庫券（因為恐慌的基金經理人追求高流動性的需求），他認為美國經濟將長期躺平，而且美國與歐洲政府將會提出鉅額的財政刺激方案，同時，受惠龐大財政政策的基礎建設、原物料股表現將超越大盤，半年後的今天檢視，句句應驗。
現在，朱洛夫認為景氣還在下跌段，但未來2年內，有機會看到幾10年來最便宜的買點，只是必須撐過眼前的難關。朱洛夫並提醒，美股目前水準太貴，因為上市公司仍在發表過度樂觀的盈利預測，目前S&P500指數的股價淨值比在1.7倍，道瓊更貴，還在淨值的3.5倍以上。因此，如果美國經濟沒有被救起來，史坦普指數會再跌3成，下跌到550點不是沒有可能。
朱洛夫對歐洲前景更悲觀。主因歐洲銀行體質，比美國還弱。特別是在中歐與東歐，包括匈牙利、羅馬尼亞、以及保加利亞，這些政府都過度借貸，其中，匈牙利政府在市場大量借貸低利率的瑞士法郎，在銀行體系資金衰竭之後，這幾個政府償還外債的壓力將會大增。
朱洛夫甚至擔心，義大利、希臘以及西班牙，將會退出歐元體系。因為根據馬斯垂克條約，加入歐元的16個國家必須將預算赤字控制在GDP（國內生產毛額）的3%以內，在金融海嘯後，對這些歐洲國家來說，這已經是愈來愈不可能維持的目標。
4低經濟即將到來！
在各國政府大量挹注資金後，全球經濟或許可以避免崩潰，但是經濟成長將軟弱無力，即使經濟從谷底彈升，仍將呈現「4低現象」，即成長率低、毛利率低、評價低、以及報酬率低；而民間到政府集體的去槓桿化工作，將使得經濟復甦過程極為漫長而痛苦。
短期內，市場可能必須應付通貨緊縮問題，但是不久之後，當投資人警覺到中央銀行不再可靠，就會大幅度轉向購買黃金等保值資產。朱洛夫認為，黃金是對抗中央銀行錯誤政策的最佳防禦工具，短期內就算會回檔到800美元附近，但2年後，金價肯定會高於目前。
皇家銀行把黃金當外匯交易
加拿大皇家銀行已經將黃金買賣，從大宗物資交易室轉移到外匯交易室！
這是皇家銀行資本市場事業群董事長安東尼．費爾（AntonyFell）在2月13日一場公開演講時，對外透露的訊息。費爾在論述為什麼把黃金當成外匯來交易的原因時，提出以下3個有趣的觀點：
1. 黃金是目前唯一具有貨幣性質、而且不會隨著快速膨脹的政府負債而貶值的國際貨幣。
2. 黃金不會受到腐敗的上市公司、或者無能的政府官員所影響，是能長期儲存價值的工具。
3. 不管美元對歐元升貶、也不管歐元對日圓升貶，衡量所有紙貨幣對黃金的升貶，才是最終的試煉！
精彩全文詳見《Smart智富網站》http://smart.businessweekly.com.tw/。
◎投資資歷：35年
◎經歷： 瑞士聯合銀行（Union Bank of Switzerland, UBS）基金經理人、全球投資委員會主席
◎現職：朱洛夫資產管理公司負責人（Zulauf Asset Management AG），管理資產規模近30億美元（約合新台幣960億元）
瑞士投資大師朱洛夫預測，以美國政府龐大的救市方案，聯邦準備理事會（Fed）負債突然暴增，如果將這些新增負債全數以黃金來提足準備，那麼黃金價格可能暴漲到每盎司6,000美元！
瑞士投資大師朱洛夫（Felix W. Zulauf） 又有驚人的觀點。他預測，以美國政府龐大的救市方案，聯邦準備理事會（Fed）負債突然暴增，如果將這些新增負債全數以黃金來提足準備，那麼黃金價格可能暴漲到每盎司6,000美元！
惡性通膨魔鬼逼近！
朱洛夫的警語，除了看好黃金投資機會，更讓全球的投資界突然警醒：潛在惡性通貨膨脹隱憂已經浮現，當全世界投資人為了股價重挫、失業激增，可能引發通貨緊縮而憂心忡忡時，惡性通膨的魔鬼，其實，已經悄悄逼近，你該如何因應？
朱洛夫是低調的投資大師，他在瑞士的資產管理公司，旗下基金去年第4季、今年以來，都能繳出正報酬成績單。他在1987年，曾準確預測美國股市崩盤、日經指數會暴跌腰斬；1997年，率先看出亞洲國家將發生金融危機；去年又發出警訊，認為美國政府至少花費一兆美元，才能防堵金融體系崩潰。他是投資週刊《霸榮》（Barron's）圓桌會議的長期貴賓，受到國際投資專家共同的推崇與尊敬。
2006年就已經陸續出脫長線持股的朱洛夫，對2009年前景仍不樂觀。他認為，美國和歐洲政府大力撒錢，提出史無前例超大規模的財政刺激方案後，全球經濟將面臨「軟性衰退」（the Soft Depression）：
1.S&P500股價指數可能再跌35%，至550點左右；
2.歷經數10年的全球化潮流可能逆轉；
3.銀行國有化的潮流，將從英美國家擴散到開發中國家；
4.部分歐洲國家將退出歐元體系；
5.黃金是最佳的長期投資工具。
《Smart智富》月刊曾在去年9月報導朱洛夫的預測。當時，他鼓勵投資人持有2年期以下的美國國庫券（因為恐慌的基金經理人追求高流動性的需求），他認為美國經濟將長期躺平，而且美國與歐洲政府將會提出鉅額的財政刺激方案，同時，受惠龐大財政政策的基礎建設、原物料股表現將超越大盤，半年後的今天檢視，句句應驗。
現在，朱洛夫認為景氣還在下跌段，但未來2年內，有機會看到幾10年來最便宜的買點，只是必須撐過眼前的難關。朱洛夫並提醒，美股目前水準太貴，因為上市公司仍在發表過度樂觀的盈利預測，目前S&P500指數的股價淨值比在1.7倍，道瓊更貴，還在淨值的3.5倍以上。因此，如果美國經濟沒有被救起來，史坦普指數會再跌3成，下跌到550點不是沒有可能。
朱洛夫對歐洲前景更悲觀。主因歐洲銀行體質，比美國還弱。特別是在中歐與東歐，包括匈牙利、羅馬尼亞、以及保加利亞，這些政府都過度借貸，其中，匈牙利政府在市場大量借貸低利率的瑞士法郎，在銀行體系資金衰竭之後，這幾個政府償還外債的壓力將會大增。
朱洛夫甚至擔心，義大利、希臘以及西班牙，將會退出歐元體系。因為根據馬斯垂克條約，加入歐元的16個國家必須將預算赤字控制在GDP（國內生產毛額）的3%以內，在金融海嘯後，對這些歐洲國家來說，這已經是愈來愈不可能維持的目標。
4低經濟即將到來！
在各國政府大量挹注資金後，全球經濟或許可以避免崩潰，但是經濟成長將軟弱無力，即使經濟從谷底彈升，仍將呈現「4低現象」，即成長率低、毛利率低、評價低、以及報酬率低；而民間到政府集體的去槓桿化工作，將使得經濟復甦過程極為漫長而痛苦。
短期內，市場可能必須應付通貨緊縮問題，但是不久之後，當投資人警覺到中央銀行不再可靠，就會大幅度轉向購買黃金等保值資產。朱洛夫認為，黃金是對抗中央銀行錯誤政策的最佳防禦工具，短期內就算會回檔到800美元附近，但2年後，金價肯定會高於目前。
皇家銀行把黃金當外匯交易
加拿大皇家銀行已經將黃金買賣，從大宗物資交易室轉移到外匯交易室！
這是皇家銀行資本市場事業群董事長安東尼．費爾（AntonyFell）在2月13日一場公開演講時，對外透露的訊息。費爾在論述為什麼把黃金當成外匯來交易的原因時，提出以下3個有趣的觀點：
1. 黃金是目前唯一具有貨幣性質、而且不會隨著快速膨脹的政府負債而貶值的國際貨幣。
2. 黃金不會受到腐敗的上市公司、或者無能的政府官員所影響，是能長期儲存價值的工具。
3. 不管美元對歐元升貶、也不管歐元對日圓升貶，衡量所有紙貨幣對黃金的升貶，才是最終的試煉！
精彩全文詳見《Smart智富網站》http://smart.businessweekly.com.tw/。
Private home prices fall record 13.8% in Q1
Tags: Urban Redevelopment Authority
Wednesday, 01 April 2009 14:18
Singapore’s home prices plunged 13.8% q-o-q in the first quarter, the most in at least 16 years, as the global financial crisis and a recession deterred buyers, reported Bloomberg.
The price index of private residential property fell to 140.3 points in the three months ended March 31 from 162.8 in the previous quarter, the Urban Redevelopment Authority said in an e-mailed statement today. That is the largest drop since the first quarter of 1993, according to the earliest data provided by the government agency.
Residential prices have retreated for three straight quarters, ending a four-year rally. The island-state’s trade ministry has forecast the economy may shrink by as much as 5% this year, the largest contraction on record, amid the worsening global recession.
Prices for private homes in the so-called core central area dropped 15% last quarter and retreated 17% elsewhere in central Singapore, according to the Urban Redevelopment Authority. They fell 7.5% across other parts of the island, today’s statement showed.
The data is based on transactions in the first 10 weeks of the quarter, the government agency said. It will provide an update in four weeks.
City Developments, Singapore’s second-largest property company, said on Feb 26 profit dropped 20% last year amid the weakening real estate market. The company has delayed the sale of two developments even as it continued building and will defer construction on new projects to cut costs, it added.
The FTSE Straits Times Real Estate Index, which tracks 30 developers and property trusts listed in Singapore, has declined 8.2% this year, extending last year’s 58% slump.
Wednesday, 01 April 2009 14:18
Singapore’s home prices plunged 13.8% q-o-q in the first quarter, the most in at least 16 years, as the global financial crisis and a recession deterred buyers, reported Bloomberg.
The price index of private residential property fell to 140.3 points in the three months ended March 31 from 162.8 in the previous quarter, the Urban Redevelopment Authority said in an e-mailed statement today. That is the largest drop since the first quarter of 1993, according to the earliest data provided by the government agency.
Residential prices have retreated for three straight quarters, ending a four-year rally. The island-state’s trade ministry has forecast the economy may shrink by as much as 5% this year, the largest contraction on record, amid the worsening global recession.
Prices for private homes in the so-called core central area dropped 15% last quarter and retreated 17% elsewhere in central Singapore, according to the Urban Redevelopment Authority. They fell 7.5% across other parts of the island, today’s statement showed.
The data is based on transactions in the first 10 weeks of the quarter, the government agency said. It will provide an update in four weeks.
City Developments, Singapore’s second-largest property company, said on Feb 26 profit dropped 20% last year amid the weakening real estate market. The company has delayed the sale of two developments even as it continued building and will defer construction on new projects to cut costs, it added.
The FTSE Straits Times Real Estate Index, which tracks 30 developers and property trusts listed in Singapore, has declined 8.2% this year, extending last year’s 58% slump.
Q1 home price respite fails to impress
Posted by luxuryasiahome on April 1, 2009
The prices of resale private apartments and condos fell at a slower clip in the first quarter compared with the decline in Q4 last year, according to latest figures from DTZ.
However, the property consulting group is predicting price drops for the whole of this year to be just as sharp, if not sharper, than last year’s declines as the recession bites and more new homes are completed.
Meanwhile, property consultants estimate that developers sold between 2,000 and 2,400 private homes in Q1 2009, the best showing since Q3 2007, when the US sub-prime crisis struck.
CB Richard Ellis (CBRE) said the top-selling projects in the primary market in Q1 were Caspian (550 units), Alexis (293 units), Double Bay Residences (250 units) and The Quartz (178 units).
It predicts developers will sell some 5,000 to 6,000 units for the whole of 2009, while DTZ puts the figure a tad higher, at between 5,500 and 6,500 units. Either way, it would be an improvement from last year’s dismal showing of 4,264 units.
CBRE reckons that its predicted 10 to 15 per cent slide in private home prices across the board this year may encourage developer sales in the primary market.
DTZ said yesterday that the average price for luxury freehold condos and apartments in prime districts 9, 10 and 11 slipped 3.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter to $1,880 psf in Q1 2009, much milder than the 22 per cent q-on-q decrease in Q4 2008.
DTZ’s senior director (research) Chua Chor Hoon is predicting a 25 to 35 per cent full-year drop (1400? psf), similar to last year’s price fall of 30.4 per cent.
In the mass-market segment, the average price for 99-year leasehold condos/ apartments outside the prime districts eased 2.6 per cent to $555 psf in Q1, roughly half the 5.8 per cent depreciation in Q4 2008.
Ms Chua projects a full- year slide of 10 to 15 per cent, steeper than the 7.3 per cent decline last year.
Landed home prices were more resilient, with average price drops of 1.5 to 2.2 per cent in Q1, compared with declines of 3.8 to 5.8 per cent in Q4 2008.
‘The leasing market bore the brunt of corporate downsizing and increased supply from new completions. 2008 saw the completion of 10,122 private residential units, 17 per cent more than the past 10-year average of 8,671 units.
‘ Some investors have resorted to renting out their units for the time being, hoping to sell when the market recovers,’ DTZ said.
Average monthly rents for luxury condos and apartments in prime districts fell 18.8 per cent quarter-on- quarter to $5.20 psf in Q1 2009, a level last seen in Q3 2006.
Ms Chua is predicting full-year 2009 decline will come in at about 25 to 30 per cent, steeper than last year’s 15.8 per cent fall.
Based on DTZ’s figures, which are based on resale prices, the average freehold luxury condo and apartment price of $1,880 psf in Q1 this year represents a drop of about one- third from the peak of $2,800 psf in late 2007/early 2008.
In contrast, the average price of 99-year leasehold non-landed properties outside prime districts, at $555 psf in Q1 2009, has barely slipped 10 per cent in that period.
That’s not surprising since luxury home prices rose much faster than mass-market homes during the run-up. As DTZ’s Ms Chua points out, in 2007 alone, luxury home prices increased by 66 per cent, while mass-market home prices rose a more moderate 27 per cent.
DTZ says that falling construction costs will provide some leeway for developers to re-price their projects.
Says the firm’s executive director (residential) Margaret Thean: ‘Mass market and mid-tier launches will continue to dominate the primary market in 2009.’
Knight Frank managing director Tan Tiong Cheng observes that with the bigger slide in luxury home prices compared with other segments, the price gap has narrowed between high- end and mid-tier properties.
‘Eventually, this will provide some support to the high-end-market. Once developers start launching luxury projects and somebody sets a price benchmark at attractive prices, buying should return to this segment,’ Mr Tan says.
While foreigners and speculators who fuelled the run-up in luxury home prices have vanished, those who sold their homes in en bloc sales and who are still sitting on cash may be in a position to buy, he added.
DTZ’s Ms Thean cautioned that despite the recent pick-up in developer sales, weak economic fundamentals will weigh down hopes of a sustained recovery in activity.
Those agreeing with this view say that the HDB resale market - which feeds the entry-level private residential market - is expected to slow down as unemployment worsens.
ERA Asia-Pacific associate director Eugene Lim predicts that the HDB Resale Price Index will probably rise just 3 to 5 per cent for the whole of this year, after a 14.5 per cent gain last year.
Still, most observers reckon that any eventual recovery in the private housing market will be bottom- up - emanating from the mass-market segment and fuelled by income-driven buyers - rather than a top-down effect from a surge in high-end prices generated by wealth-driven buyers as seen during the 2006-2008 bull run.
‘The signal must come from the economy because we’re still the tail and the dog is the economy, because that’s where the incomes are derived, and property is always the tail end of the value chain,’ as a major developer puts it.
Source : Business Times - 1 Apr 2009
陶冬：新興市場洗卻鉛華
2009/04/01 ｜ 加入書籤｜ 轉寄本文
一場猛烈的金融危機和經濟衰退，將高高在上的“金磚四國”打落塵埃。金磚不再發光，個別的看上去甚至更像磚頭。至於好事之徒編撰出來的“金鑽11國”，則早已樹倒猢猻散，有些還掙扎在危機中。
曾經盛極一時的新興市場故事，正面臨著重大的挑戰。 “新興”中究竟有多少是經得起時間考驗的崛起，又有多少是虛幻的泡沫？
新興市場並非鐵板一塊，它們自身的素質也不同，所面臨的挑戰也不同。身處險境的，主要是東歐和前蘇聯國家。這批國家（市場稱EMEA）靠前幾年的熱錢湧入製造出經濟增長的神話，也積下巨額貿易逆差和短期外債。如今海外資金轉向，帶動了匯率急跌、經濟收縮，債務危機一觸即發。
拉美國家曾是債務危機的多發地，個別中美洲國家已出現了國債違約，不過此區域的形勢比想像的好。首先，拉美地區並沒有出現東歐那種瘋狂借貸，槓桿率並不高；其次，長期的石油、商品牛市下，各國財政狀況、外匯儲備有明顯改善，抗風險能力有所提高。拉美的問題是，石油價格長期低迷，對出口和經濟打擊頗大。
在亞洲，除韓國、印尼和印度之外，其它國家的短期外債數量並不大，在主權層面上幾乎沒有一個亞洲國家面臨外部流動性危機，而且當地的銀行體系基本穩健。但是，亞洲對出口的依賴是世界上最高的，全球經濟衰退對亞洲的出口訂單造成災難性的打擊，許多國家出口惊現20～50%的跌幅。出口乃亞洲經濟的命脈。
至於海灣石油輸出國，它們此前對石油價格的假設普遍過度樂觀，導致財政預算大幅偏離實際情況。當地房地產泡沫破滅，對銀行和消費者都造成負面衝擊。迪拜過於進取的投資計劃，使其成為海灣地區的高危分子。
筆者看來，新興市場國家風險上的甄別，可以圍繞兩大主線：一是對海外資金（尤其是短期資金）的依賴度，二是對海外市場的依賴度。前者顯示危機程度，後者表示復甦能力。
在2007年新興市場故事大紅大紫時，有9290億美元流入新興市場。據國際金融協會（IIF）估計，今年的資金流入量可能不超過1650億美元，商業貸款更呈淨流出。金融海嘯、去槓桿化、風險意識急升，導致外部資金幾乎斷流。資金供應上的滄桑之變，對於依靠外資流入來平衡國際收支的國家是一個沉重的打擊，對於過度借貸的國家則可能是致命的。筆者相信，部分新興市場國家的債務危機已難避免，屆時對整個新興市場以及全球金融業的衝擊，則取決於其它國家和國際金融組織救援的速度和力度。
新興市場經濟起飛，往往依賴於外部需求。上世紀80－90年代，新興市場國家的增長動力中40%來自外部市場，最近十年，這一比率更升高至近70%。全球聯動式的經濟衰退，製造出一個罕見的懸崖式出口下降，對依賴製造業出口的亞洲和依賴商品能源出口的拉美、非洲、海灣國家打擊沉重。
在未來數年，筆者認為全球經濟的大環境是，信貸的去槓桿化仍會繼續，資金成本上揚；美國消費者減債、降消費，全球貿易進入低增長；製造業、服務業外包會面臨保護主義的挑戰，但全球化大趨勢不變；貿易失衡狀況有所改善，新興市場國家的貿易順差明顯下降。
同時，儘管相信商品市場的短期調整仍不充分，筆者仍看好商品、能源價格的長期走勢。全球化使佔世界人口40%的中國人、印度人加入了商品的常規消費大軍，這個變化徹底改變了商品、能源的供需格局，開創了歷史上罕見的長期牛市。目前經濟不景、信貸收縮，其實消滅了任何商品供應上的新產能。一旦經濟復甦，投資不足、供應缺乏彈性的弱點便會暴露無餘。
過去十年的信貸氾濫，催生出一個新興市場泡沫。但是泡沫中，又有許多正面的、結構性的經濟變化。一場金融危機，沖洗掉泡沫成分，但是好的東西仍會保留下來。筆者認為，新興經濟可以保存下它在製造業、服務業的競爭優勢，以及在資源領域的供應優勢。當這些與體制上的變革（如開放市場、減少政府乾預、增強匯率靈活性、善待外資等）相結合時，經濟變得大有希望。
世界曾經分為發達國家和發展中國家，不過這個分界正日漸模糊。筆者看來，這場危機後，開始落伍的歐洲、日本和新興市場國家中的精英（如中國、巴西、印度、韓國）將組成世界上的中產國家。過去曾受追捧的另一些新興市場國家，則可能被打回原型。
(本文原載於新財富，為個人觀點，並非任何勸誘或投資建議)
一場猛烈的金融危機和經濟衰退，將高高在上的“金磚四國”打落塵埃。金磚不再發光，個別的看上去甚至更像磚頭。至於好事之徒編撰出來的“金鑽11國”，則早已樹倒猢猻散，有些還掙扎在危機中。
曾經盛極一時的新興市場故事，正面臨著重大的挑戰。 “新興”中究竟有多少是經得起時間考驗的崛起，又有多少是虛幻的泡沫？
新興市場並非鐵板一塊，它們自身的素質也不同，所面臨的挑戰也不同。身處險境的，主要是東歐和前蘇聯國家。這批國家（市場稱EMEA）靠前幾年的熱錢湧入製造出經濟增長的神話，也積下巨額貿易逆差和短期外債。如今海外資金轉向，帶動了匯率急跌、經濟收縮，債務危機一觸即發。
拉美國家曾是債務危機的多發地，個別中美洲國家已出現了國債違約，不過此區域的形勢比想像的好。首先，拉美地區並沒有出現東歐那種瘋狂借貸，槓桿率並不高；其次，長期的石油、商品牛市下，各國財政狀況、外匯儲備有明顯改善，抗風險能力有所提高。拉美的問題是，石油價格長期低迷，對出口和經濟打擊頗大。
在亞洲，除韓國、印尼和印度之外，其它國家的短期外債數量並不大，在主權層面上幾乎沒有一個亞洲國家面臨外部流動性危機，而且當地的銀行體系基本穩健。但是，亞洲對出口的依賴是世界上最高的，全球經濟衰退對亞洲的出口訂單造成災難性的打擊，許多國家出口惊現20～50%的跌幅。出口乃亞洲經濟的命脈。
至於海灣石油輸出國，它們此前對石油價格的假設普遍過度樂觀，導致財政預算大幅偏離實際情況。當地房地產泡沫破滅，對銀行和消費者都造成負面衝擊。迪拜過於進取的投資計劃，使其成為海灣地區的高危分子。
筆者看來，新興市場國家風險上的甄別，可以圍繞兩大主線：一是對海外資金（尤其是短期資金）的依賴度，二是對海外市場的依賴度。前者顯示危機程度，後者表示復甦能力。
在2007年新興市場故事大紅大紫時，有9290億美元流入新興市場。據國際金融協會（IIF）估計，今年的資金流入量可能不超過1650億美元，商業貸款更呈淨流出。金融海嘯、去槓桿化、風險意識急升，導致外部資金幾乎斷流。資金供應上的滄桑之變，對於依靠外資流入來平衡國際收支的國家是一個沉重的打擊，對於過度借貸的國家則可能是致命的。筆者相信，部分新興市場國家的債務危機已難避免，屆時對整個新興市場以及全球金融業的衝擊，則取決於其它國家和國際金融組織救援的速度和力度。
新興市場經濟起飛，往往依賴於外部需求。上世紀80－90年代，新興市場國家的增長動力中40%來自外部市場，最近十年，這一比率更升高至近70%。全球聯動式的經濟衰退，製造出一個罕見的懸崖式出口下降，對依賴製造業出口的亞洲和依賴商品能源出口的拉美、非洲、海灣國家打擊沉重。
在未來數年，筆者認為全球經濟的大環境是，信貸的去槓桿化仍會繼續，資金成本上揚；美國消費者減債、降消費，全球貿易進入低增長；製造業、服務業外包會面臨保護主義的挑戰，但全球化大趨勢不變；貿易失衡狀況有所改善，新興市場國家的貿易順差明顯下降。
同時，儘管相信商品市場的短期調整仍不充分，筆者仍看好商品、能源價格的長期走勢。全球化使佔世界人口40%的中國人、印度人加入了商品的常規消費大軍，這個變化徹底改變了商品、能源的供需格局，開創了歷史上罕見的長期牛市。目前經濟不景、信貸收縮，其實消滅了任何商品供應上的新產能。一旦經濟復甦，投資不足、供應缺乏彈性的弱點便會暴露無餘。
過去十年的信貸氾濫，催生出一個新興市場泡沫。但是泡沫中，又有許多正面的、結構性的經濟變化。一場金融危機，沖洗掉泡沫成分，但是好的東西仍會保留下來。筆者認為，新興經濟可以保存下它在製造業、服務業的競爭優勢，以及在資源領域的供應優勢。當這些與體制上的變革（如開放市場、減少政府乾預、增強匯率靈活性、善待外資等）相結合時，經濟變得大有希望。
世界曾經分為發達國家和發展中國家，不過這個分界正日漸模糊。筆者看來，這場危機後，開始落伍的歐洲、日本和新興市場國家中的精英（如中國、巴西、印度、韓國）將組成世界上的中產國家。過去曾受追捧的另一些新興市場國家，則可能被打回原型。
(本文原載於新財富，為個人觀點，並非任何勸誘或投資建議)
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