2009/03/29
陶冬
全球股市在蓋特納的銀行去毒方案刺激下繼續攀升。美股在三月份創下了1987年以來最大升幅，新興市場更是有史以來最佳。除了銀行重組有進展外，美國的房屋數據也出乎意料地上升，加上耐用品訂單和就業數據有所改善，為美國經濟提早復甦製造出想像的空間，帶動股市連續走高。債市情緒也有改善，crossover及iTraxx均回落，不過債市反彈力度明顯較股市遜色。商品和石油市場在急升之後出現獲利回吐，但銅價卻在中國需求故事下一路高歌。
蓋特納的“公私投資計劃”，在剝離有毒資產上邁出了重要的一步。方案明顯有利於銀行和參與計劃的私人基金，因此估計拍賣時會有不俗的市場反應。但是此方案將風險幾乎全部留給納稅人，將潛在回報收益卻拱手讓給私人投資者。此思路很難在國會得到進一步的撥款，資金上將難以為繼，因此不堪為整個金融體系排毒的重任。筆者認為在金融業成功剝離有毒資產之前，難言真正的經濟復甦，市場反彈也難持續。
上周英國國債出現七年來首次拍賣失敗，美國和德國的國債發行也不熱烈。在各國紛紛推出巨額財政擴張的情況下，國債的供需關係似乎在發生微妙的變化。
本週市場的焦點是4月2~3日(Friday)的G20峰會，各國領袖在刺激經濟、重建金融、加強監管、環境保護方面如能取得進展，可能對市場產生影響，但各方在開會前已經眾說紛紜，估計難孚眾望。週四預料歐洲央行會減息0.5%。週五美國三月非農業就業人數預期大降700K人（vs上月651K），失業率衝上8.6% （vs 8.1）。週三美國的三月ISM（36.5 vs 35.8）和歐洲的PMI（34 vs 33.5）分別出爐，可能較上月略有改善。
(本欄每星期日在此博客登出，週一早上於CCTV2證券時間出現。以上觀點僅為個人對市場的看法，並非任何投資勸誘或建議)
Sunday, March 29, 2009
Friday, March 27, 2009
Mar 25 Mid-Week Commentary: Bear market bounce or new young bull?
Thursday, 26 March 2009 11:53
WHAT IS DRIVING the market’s stunning rally? And is it another short-lived ‘dead cat bounce’?
Financials led this rally worldwide but it is now widespread across many sectors. In Singapore, since the start of March, DBS Group Holdings ($8.42) has surged 30%, United Overseas Bank ($10.32) 25% and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC, $4.87) 19%. These gains pale in comparison with Keppel Land ($1.43) which rocketed 42.7% within the same period. Neptune Orient Lines shot up 31%, CapitaLand ($2.20) is 23.7% higher and City Developments ($5.01) rose 26% within the month. The FSSTI (1,691) on the other hand rose a more sedate 17%.
Since the start of the rally, the counter that has strengthened technically is Keppel Corp followed by Sembcorp Marine, the world’s two largest builders of jack-up rigs. Both stocks are above both their 50-day and 100-day moving averages. Keppel Corp’s quarterly momentum is poised to move into bullish territory and its smoothed annual momentum is in the process of turning up. Unlike the banks, neither made new lows this March, a sign that they had gained strength relative to the market. These could turn out to be early leaders.
Bank stocks made new lows in March, as did the property counters. This leaves them weaker technically than counters that didn’t make new lows. For instance, although Keppel Land rose spectacularly this week, it is meeting resistance at its 100-day moving average at $1.51 and that may be as far as it can go. CapitaLand has moved above both its 50-day moving average and is attempting to clear its 100-day moving average at $2.23. The 80 million volume in shares traded on Tuesday may have been the successful breakout needed. But it still has a distance to go before it attempts to challenge the key 200-day moving average currently at $3.05. The indicator is declining at the rate of one cent a day.
Dow Theorist George Schaefer has used the 200-day moving average as an indicator to differentiate bull markets from bear markets and so far, the local market has yet to make the grade.
On Tuesday, the FSSTI tested its 100-day moving at 1,700 and retreated. The clue to whether the market is about to start a new bull or just in a bear market rally should be out within the next three trading sessions. The FSSTI’s up-move created a small gap between 1,664 and 1,681. If that gap is not covered, it would turn out to be a breakaway gap — these are rarely covered, and mark the onset of new trend. However there has not been the crucial swing that will put the bear market once and for all behind us. There is a need for a sustained break above the strong resistance at 1,700 that would enable the FSSTI to test 1,800 successfully.
On Wednesday, the FSSTI closed slightly down at 1,691.68. Till that materializes, it would be premature to term the current moves as part of the new bull. Rather they are part of a bear market weakness that could eventually pass.
Some stocks have actually moved above their 200-day moving averages, but not in sufficient quantity to cause the broad market to strengthen. Wilmar International has moved above its moving average, and Olam International is challenging it.
Obviously, the Obama administration’s unveiling of more bailout details, better coordinated G-20 policies to turn around the financial crisis as well as the roll out of stimulus plans worldwide is giving the markets a firmer bottom. Meanwhile the market has probably done enough to put dead cat bounces behind it but stronger fundamentals are needed to sustain this rally.
新推出519个四、五房式单位 榜鹅预购组屋比同区转售组屋便宜
（2009-03-27）
● 吴淑贤 建屋发展局在榜鹅推出新预购组屋项目（BTO），建造413个四房式和106个五房式单位，售价比该区的组屋转售价格低。
这个名为“The Nautilus @ Punggol”的组屋项目位于榜鹅东和榜鹅域（Punggol Field）的交界处，附近有榜鹅生活聚场（Punggol Plaza），里头设有能满足居民日常所需的超级市场和食阁等设施。绿苑小学（Greendale Primary School）、绿苑中学和弥陀学校（Mee Toh School）等学府也近在咫尺。
该地段共建八座组屋，单位面积从90平方米到110平方米不等。四房式组屋的售价介于22万8000元至27万4000元，五房式介于30万5000元至35万7000元。
与去年底推出的榜鹅预购组屋项目“Punggol Arcadia”和“Punggol Regalia”比较，这批组屋的售价较便宜，因为它离榜鹅地铁站较远，地点不如之前推出的两个组屋项目适中。另外，这个项目所建造的是标准组屋，室内设施一般，整体设计感也不如前两个项目的优质组屋来得突出。
建屋局重申，当局是参考该区的组屋转售价格后才为预购组屋定价，因此预购组屋的价格都会比市价来得低。除了当局的高额津贴，家庭月入在5000元或以下的申请者也能享有高达4万元的额外公积金房屋津贴。
根据当局的计算，预购组屋的售价仍维持在国人可负担的水平。以一个月入4300元的中等收入家庭来说，要是他们购买一个售价25万元的四房式组屋，每月所需缴交的房屋贷款约900元。这笔贷款完全可从他们的公积金户头里扣除，所以无需掏出现金支付。
博纳集团（PropNex）企业通讯及行销经理陈家扬相信，The Nautilus@Punggol应该会获得不俗的反应，因为其售价比该区的组屋转售价格低约20％至30％。他说，目前的经济走势低迷，榜鹅组屋的转售价格已自去年第四季起开始滑落，因此这批预购组屋的保守定价是务实的。
昨天是组屋接受申请的第一天，截至傍晚5时，519个单位共获得72份申请。
公众可通过建屋局网站www.hdb.gov.sg提出申请，并可到大巴窑建屋局中心3楼展示厅参观及索取销售资料，展示厅平日开放时间是上午8时至下午5时，星期六是上午8时至下午1时
● 吴淑贤 建屋发展局在榜鹅推出新预购组屋项目（BTO），建造413个四房式和106个五房式单位，售价比该区的组屋转售价格低。
这个名为“The Nautilus @ Punggol”的组屋项目位于榜鹅东和榜鹅域（Punggol Field）的交界处，附近有榜鹅生活聚场（Punggol Plaza），里头设有能满足居民日常所需的超级市场和食阁等设施。绿苑小学（Greendale Primary School）、绿苑中学和弥陀学校（Mee Toh School）等学府也近在咫尺。
该地段共建八座组屋，单位面积从90平方米到110平方米不等。四房式组屋的售价介于22万8000元至27万4000元，五房式介于30万5000元至35万7000元。
与去年底推出的榜鹅预购组屋项目“Punggol Arcadia”和“Punggol Regalia”比较，这批组屋的售价较便宜，因为它离榜鹅地铁站较远，地点不如之前推出的两个组屋项目适中。另外，这个项目所建造的是标准组屋，室内设施一般，整体设计感也不如前两个项目的优质组屋来得突出。
建屋局重申，当局是参考该区的组屋转售价格后才为预购组屋定价，因此预购组屋的价格都会比市价来得低。除了当局的高额津贴，家庭月入在5000元或以下的申请者也能享有高达4万元的额外公积金房屋津贴。
根据当局的计算，预购组屋的售价仍维持在国人可负担的水平。以一个月入4300元的中等收入家庭来说，要是他们购买一个售价25万元的四房式组屋，每月所需缴交的房屋贷款约900元。这笔贷款完全可从他们的公积金户头里扣除，所以无需掏出现金支付。
博纳集团（PropNex）企业通讯及行销经理陈家扬相信，The Nautilus@Punggol应该会获得不俗的反应，因为其售价比该区的组屋转售价格低约20％至30％。他说，目前的经济走势低迷，榜鹅组屋的转售价格已自去年第四季起开始滑落，因此这批预购组屋的保守定价是务实的。
昨天是组屋接受申请的第一天，截至傍晚5时，519个单位共获得72份申请。
公众可通过建屋局网站www.hdb.gov.sg提出申请，并可到大巴窑建屋局中心3楼展示厅参观及索取销售资料，展示厅平日开放时间是上午8时至下午5时，星期六是上午8时至下午1时
Home hunters pack showflats in Balestier (CDL Arte@Thomson)
Posted by luxuryasiahome on March 27, 2009
SOME home hunters have been packing showflats in the Balestier area and buying units, even as the general property market remains weak.
City Developments (CDL) said yesterday it has sold ‘about 60 per cent’ of the 100 units at The Arte@Thomson at an average price of $880 per sq ft since a hush-hush preview started last Friday.
The Arte has 336 fairly large units in two 36-storey blocks in Jalan Datoh, off Balestier Road.
The 60 or so units were transacted at $852,800 to $2.46 million, said a CDL spokesman.
Most of those sold were two- and three-bedroom units. The two-bedroom units are 1,055sqft, while nearly half of the project comprises three-bedroom units ranging from 1,399 sq ft to 1,625sqft.
CDL said it had extended the interest absorption scheme (IAS) to buyers during the preview at no extra cost, but could not yet say how many buyers had taken advantage of it.
‘Buyers are given some time to decide if they wish to take up the IAS,’ said the spokesman.
The scheme allows buyers to defer the bulk of the purchase price until completion on condition that they take up a loan at the point of sale.
The CDL spokesman said the $880 per sq ft price was being offered for a limited number of units only. ‘We will be reviewing the price and adjusting it upwards progressively,’ he said.
The encouraging sales at The Arte came amid a still-slow market as some other launches see relatively weak interest. Demand for high-end homes, in particular, remains poor.
New home sales in February were lifted to a relatively high level, but that was largely due to the strong sales at three mass to mid-end projects. Many buyers went for small units as their absolute prices were low, and hence affordable.
Just last week, Keppel Land deferred the construction of two yet-to-be-launched projects - Marina Bay Suites in Marina Bay and Madison Residences in Bukit Timah - because of the slumping market.
In the Balestier area, the new showflats benefited from spillover crowds from the various launches, said Savills Residential director Phylicia Ang, who is marketing the 104-unit Domus in the area.
Released for sale two weeks ago, Domus, in Irrawaddy Road, welcomed visitors who had initially attended The Arte preview.
So far, 33 units - out of the 59 launched at Domus - have been sold at an average of $900 per sq ft, or from $480,000 to $1.2 million, said Ms Ang.
The sales included 20 one-bedroom units of 474sqft.
Novelty Group’s I-Residences, a 70-unit project in Irrawaddy Road, is about 50 per cent sold since its private preview late last year.
Nearby, on the former Ruby Plaza site, Soilbuild had a preview for The Mezzo, which offers a 6 per cent rental guarantee for two years. It did not comment on sales.
Source : Straits Times - 27 Mar 2009
SOME home hunters have been packing showflats in the Balestier area and buying units, even as the general property market remains weak.
City Developments (CDL) said yesterday it has sold ‘about 60 per cent’ of the 100 units at The Arte@Thomson at an average price of $880 per sq ft since a hush-hush preview started last Friday.
The Arte has 336 fairly large units in two 36-storey blocks in Jalan Datoh, off Balestier Road.
The 60 or so units were transacted at $852,800 to $2.46 million, said a CDL spokesman.
Most of those sold were two- and three-bedroom units. The two-bedroom units are 1,055sqft, while nearly half of the project comprises three-bedroom units ranging from 1,399 sq ft to 1,625sqft.
CDL said it had extended the interest absorption scheme (IAS) to buyers during the preview at no extra cost, but could not yet say how many buyers had taken advantage of it.
‘Buyers are given some time to decide if they wish to take up the IAS,’ said the spokesman.
The scheme allows buyers to defer the bulk of the purchase price until completion on condition that they take up a loan at the point of sale.
The CDL spokesman said the $880 per sq ft price was being offered for a limited number of units only. ‘We will be reviewing the price and adjusting it upwards progressively,’ he said.
The encouraging sales at The Arte came amid a still-slow market as some other launches see relatively weak interest. Demand for high-end homes, in particular, remains poor.
New home sales in February were lifted to a relatively high level, but that was largely due to the strong sales at three mass to mid-end projects. Many buyers went for small units as their absolute prices were low, and hence affordable.
Just last week, Keppel Land deferred the construction of two yet-to-be-launched projects - Marina Bay Suites in Marina Bay and Madison Residences in Bukit Timah - because of the slumping market.
In the Balestier area, the new showflats benefited from spillover crowds from the various launches, said Savills Residential director Phylicia Ang, who is marketing the 104-unit Domus in the area.
Released for sale two weeks ago, Domus, in Irrawaddy Road, welcomed visitors who had initially attended The Arte preview.
So far, 33 units - out of the 59 launched at Domus - have been sold at an average of $900 per sq ft, or from $480,000 to $1.2 million, said Ms Ang.
The sales included 20 one-bedroom units of 474sqft.
Novelty Group’s I-Residences, a 70-unit project in Irrawaddy Road, is about 50 per cent sold since its private preview late last year.
Nearby, on the former Ruby Plaza site, Soilbuild had a preview for The Mezzo, which offers a 6 per cent rental guarantee for two years. It did not comment on sales.
Source : Straits Times - 27 Mar 2009
Thursday, March 26, 2009
工程師活用廢置屋》1萬元養房術 月收入翻6倍 ( 2009/03/04 )
不甘上班族收入增加緩慢，工程師柯惇貿決定轉行當專業的「包租公」。現在他多了一個外號：「City Doctor」（城市醫生）。因為他專找鬧區內的閒置空屋，巧手裝扮後再出租，把別人眼中的「呆資產」徹底活化，變成讓自己賺進穩定現金流的好投資。
這是一個工程師變身網路包租公，讓自己收入翻升6倍的故事。
柯惇貿，64年次，出身公教人員家庭，從小被灌輸穩定工作最重要。退伍後，進入一家網路公司，任職月薪3萬元的小工程師。因為不甘上班族收入增加緩慢，讀了《富爸爸‧窮爸爸》一書後，被作者羅伯特‧清崎（Robert Kiyosaki）點醒：要賺取「非工資收入」，財富才能自由。
非工資收入要怎麼賺？「富爸爸」教說：不能去兼差，因為那無法讓你賺到持續而穩定的現金流。柯惇貿想了半天，開始研究買房收租的可能性。可是，他手上存款只有48萬元。以買房自備款至少兩成算，頂多能買總價240萬元的房子，在台北幾乎不可能。
他沒有放棄，往中南部，應該找得到。他轉到母校台中逢甲大學附近找，每個週末，從台北下台中看房子，這樣找了半年，走遍逢甲附近每條小巷，每根電線桿上的紅紙條都撕下來，打電話去問、去看。半年下來，台中西屯區上百間仲介公司，他幾乎都接觸過。
2002年7月，機會來了！1間套房要轉售，出價剛好就是240萬元。當時，柯惇貿算了一下，套房出租，每月租金收入2萬1,000元，扣除銀行利息貸款和雜支，投下去，每月淨收益有1萬元，這位才上班1年的工程師，決定投資下去！
握有上百間套房 靠社群分工管理
隨著案子愈投愈多、收入逐步攀高，工程師決定轉行當專業的「包租公」。現在，他手上投資的套房超過100間，而且不再一個人單打獨鬥，因為「富爸爸」有教：「找到一個賺錢方法，下一步就要讓它系統化。」
去年，他開始經營「包租公社群」，透過網路號召近30位上班族一齊投入包租公生意，這個改變，讓他現在每月收入拉升到18萬元，是當年工程師收入的6倍。
為什麼要找人一起做？第一、可以分散風險，按他的想法，手上有10萬元資金，頂多投資一個案子，但如果減到1萬元，則可以投資10個案子，後者風險比較低；第二、因為案量大，房仲業務員會把好案子先丟過來，投資更順手；第三、參與者眾，可以分配出租的複雜管理工作，降低個人投入的管理成本。
2008年5月，這個網路社群開始了第一個19間套房的投資案，入會門檻只要1萬元，因為回報率穩定，儘管全球金融海嘯爆發，景氣變差，加入的上班族卻愈來愈多。
帶著30位會員，現在，柯惇貿多了一個外號：「City Doctor」（城市醫生）。因為他專找鬧區內的閒置空屋，巧手裝扮後再出租，把別人眼中的「呆資產」徹底活化，變成讓自己賺進穩定現金流的好投資。
摸熟環境區域 找出潛力案件改裝
去年12月，柯惇貿相中逢甲商圈內1棟半荒廢的商業大樓。他開始想，改裝辦公大樓資金大，又不易出租，但是大樓閒置的停車場，應該有商機。
儘管停車場機械設備已經損壞，但柯惇貿算一算，修理升降機費用只要30萬元，若27個停車位滿租，年投報率將達96%。由於大樓距離逢甲夜市只有1分鐘路程，甚至可以租給夜市攤販擺放攤車，或租給臨時停車的夜市人潮也可以。
不只靠改造停車場收租，其他投資客沒時間、沒技巧處理的地產投資，只要是空屋，他也出手替人整頓，自己轉手做二房東。
為什麼別人看不出價值的房子，到他手上就可以不一樣？答案只有兩個字：「聚焦」。6年來，他只專注經營台中西屯區，對這裡熟門熟路。當別的投資客另闢戰場，做多角化經營時，柯惇貿卻選擇扎根台中逢甲商圈，即使到現在，他每個禮拜還是會畫定區域，每一條小巷親自走一遍，看看是否有新案件。
目前台北住宅租金年投報率約在6%8%左右，中南部因為房價便宜，租金收益尚可維持在10%以上。但柯惇貿因應景氣變化，在計算投報酬率時，已把租金收入下調1成。
如果你正苦思，在爛景氣中，如何增加財富？想想柯惇貿改造停車場和套房的故事，看看身邊是否也有別人不要的資產，巧思妝點一下，說不定它就是一個最佳的生財工具！
精彩全文詳見《Smart智富網站》http://smart.businessweekly.com.tw/。
這是一個工程師變身網路包租公，讓自己收入翻升6倍的故事。
柯惇貿，64年次，出身公教人員家庭，從小被灌輸穩定工作最重要。退伍後，進入一家網路公司，任職月薪3萬元的小工程師。因為不甘上班族收入增加緩慢，讀了《富爸爸‧窮爸爸》一書後，被作者羅伯特‧清崎（Robert Kiyosaki）點醒：要賺取「非工資收入」，財富才能自由。
非工資收入要怎麼賺？「富爸爸」教說：不能去兼差，因為那無法讓你賺到持續而穩定的現金流。柯惇貿想了半天，開始研究買房收租的可能性。可是，他手上存款只有48萬元。以買房自備款至少兩成算，頂多能買總價240萬元的房子，在台北幾乎不可能。
他沒有放棄，往中南部，應該找得到。他轉到母校台中逢甲大學附近找，每個週末，從台北下台中看房子，這樣找了半年，走遍逢甲附近每條小巷，每根電線桿上的紅紙條都撕下來，打電話去問、去看。半年下來，台中西屯區上百間仲介公司，他幾乎都接觸過。
2002年7月，機會來了！1間套房要轉售，出價剛好就是240萬元。當時，柯惇貿算了一下，套房出租，每月租金收入2萬1,000元，扣除銀行利息貸款和雜支，投下去，每月淨收益有1萬元，這位才上班1年的工程師，決定投資下去！
握有上百間套房 靠社群分工管理
隨著案子愈投愈多、收入逐步攀高，工程師決定轉行當專業的「包租公」。現在，他手上投資的套房超過100間，而且不再一個人單打獨鬥，因為「富爸爸」有教：「找到一個賺錢方法，下一步就要讓它系統化。」
去年，他開始經營「包租公社群」，透過網路號召近30位上班族一齊投入包租公生意，這個改變，讓他現在每月收入拉升到18萬元，是當年工程師收入的6倍。
為什麼要找人一起做？第一、可以分散風險，按他的想法，手上有10萬元資金，頂多投資一個案子，但如果減到1萬元，則可以投資10個案子，後者風險比較低；第二、因為案量大，房仲業務員會把好案子先丟過來，投資更順手；第三、參與者眾，可以分配出租的複雜管理工作，降低個人投入的管理成本。
2008年5月，這個網路社群開始了第一個19間套房的投資案，入會門檻只要1萬元，因為回報率穩定，儘管全球金融海嘯爆發，景氣變差，加入的上班族卻愈來愈多。
帶著30位會員，現在，柯惇貿多了一個外號：「City Doctor」（城市醫生）。因為他專找鬧區內的閒置空屋，巧手裝扮後再出租，把別人眼中的「呆資產」徹底活化，變成讓自己賺進穩定現金流的好投資。
摸熟環境區域 找出潛力案件改裝
去年12月，柯惇貿相中逢甲商圈內1棟半荒廢的商業大樓。他開始想，改裝辦公大樓資金大，又不易出租，但是大樓閒置的停車場，應該有商機。
儘管停車場機械設備已經損壞，但柯惇貿算一算，修理升降機費用只要30萬元，若27個停車位滿租，年投報率將達96%。由於大樓距離逢甲夜市只有1分鐘路程，甚至可以租給夜市攤販擺放攤車，或租給臨時停車的夜市人潮也可以。
不只靠改造停車場收租，其他投資客沒時間、沒技巧處理的地產投資，只要是空屋，他也出手替人整頓，自己轉手做二房東。
為什麼別人看不出價值的房子，到他手上就可以不一樣？答案只有兩個字：「聚焦」。6年來，他只專注經營台中西屯區，對這裡熟門熟路。當別的投資客另闢戰場，做多角化經營時，柯惇貿卻選擇扎根台中逢甲商圈，即使到現在，他每個禮拜還是會畫定區域，每一條小巷親自走一遍，看看是否有新案件。
目前台北住宅租金年投報率約在6%8%左右，中南部因為房價便宜，租金收益尚可維持在10%以上。但柯惇貿因應景氣變化，在計算投報酬率時，已把租金收入下調1成。
如果你正苦思，在爛景氣中，如何增加財富？想想柯惇貿改造停車場和套房的故事，看看身邊是否也有別人不要的資產，巧思妝點一下，說不定它就是一個最佳的生財工具！
精彩全文詳見《Smart智富網站》http://smart.businessweekly.com.tw/。
Monday, March 23, 2009
聯儲赤膊上陣商品虛晃一槍
2009/03/22 ｜ 加入書籤｜ 轉寄本文
一個世人皆知的故事，帶出一輪頗大的市場變局。美國聯儲在上週三宣布將購入3000億美元的長期國債，消息傳出後國債市場出現了二十年來最大的單日昇幅，美元爆出自1985年來最大的單日下跌，石油、商品價格大幅攀升，股市則既擔心衰退又擔心通脹。
聯儲進入數量擴張一事，早在半年前已有公告，不過消息仍使市場震動。美國央行已無視與財政部之間的防火牆，全力為政府的財政擴張保駕護航。這意味著美國的國債利率可能長期維持在與風險不匹配的超低水平，而且聯儲通過購買按揭證券、企業債券來影響商業利率，恐怕只是時間問題。筆者認為美元在短期仍處下行調整軌道，直至歐洲經濟、銀行的壞消息重新蓋過美國過度發鈔的憂慮。聯儲買入債券在中長期利好美元，因為它對舒緩信貸收縮、促進經濟復甦有幫助。
石油、商品價格近期走強。從沽空盤平倉、美元貶值角度看，這輪反彈是正常的（甚至應該說是逾期才出現的），但是其背後基礎面的改善並不明顯。從霍爾木斯海峽油輪的駛出數量到中國鋼鐵價格的走勢，均顯示全球需求仍然疲弱，筆者暫時看不到供需關係上的改善。
本週四蓋特納在國會就銀行監管改革作證，週二伯南克也在眾議院作證。週一美國二月房屋銷售預計續跌（4370K vs上月4490K）。週二歐盟三月ＰＭＩ為33(vs 33.5)，週三德國三月ＩＦＯ再跌至82.3（vs 82.6）。週四、五，美國和英國分別修定ＧＤＰ，可能略有改善。
(本欄每星期日在此博客登出，週一早上於CCTV2證券時間出現。以上觀點僅為個人對市場的看法，並非任何投資勸誘或建議)
一個世人皆知的故事，帶出一輪頗大的市場變局。美國聯儲在上週三宣布將購入3000億美元的長期國債，消息傳出後國債市場出現了二十年來最大的單日昇幅，美元爆出自1985年來最大的單日下跌，石油、商品價格大幅攀升，股市則既擔心衰退又擔心通脹。
聯儲進入數量擴張一事，早在半年前已有公告，不過消息仍使市場震動。美國央行已無視與財政部之間的防火牆，全力為政府的財政擴張保駕護航。這意味著美國的國債利率可能長期維持在與風險不匹配的超低水平，而且聯儲通過購買按揭證券、企業債券來影響商業利率，恐怕只是時間問題。筆者認為美元在短期仍處下行調整軌道，直至歐洲經濟、銀行的壞消息重新蓋過美國過度發鈔的憂慮。聯儲買入債券在中長期利好美元，因為它對舒緩信貸收縮、促進經濟復甦有幫助。
石油、商品價格近期走強。從沽空盤平倉、美元貶值角度看，這輪反彈是正常的（甚至應該說是逾期才出現的），但是其背後基礎面的改善並不明顯。從霍爾木斯海峽油輪的駛出數量到中國鋼鐵價格的走勢，均顯示全球需求仍然疲弱，筆者暫時看不到供需關係上的改善。
本週四蓋特納在國會就銀行監管改革作證，週二伯南克也在眾議院作證。週一美國二月房屋銷售預計續跌（4370K vs上月4490K）。週二歐盟三月ＰＭＩ為33(vs 33.5)，週三德國三月ＩＦＯ再跌至82.3（vs 82.6）。週四、五，美國和英國分別修定ＧＤＰ，可能略有改善。
(本欄每星期日在此博客登出，週一早上於CCTV2證券時間出現。以上觀點僅為個人對市場的看法，並非任何投資勸誘或建議)
全球大印鈔票救經濟─美元急跌，資金將尋找新出路
美國FED舉行FOMC理事會，決議維持0~0.25%的寬鬆利率政策。最受矚目的是FED將採取藍波（RAMBO）式的手段，以強力量化手段來救市。FED這次出乎市場預料之外地，準備以3000億美元購入長期國庫債券。同時FED將擴大其資產負債表，在原有5000億美元額度外，再進一步購入7500億美元的房地產抵押債券（AGENCY MORTGAGE-BACKED SECURITIES），另外再增加購入1000億美元的機構債券，使總額度達2000億美元，這是空前大印鈔票拯救經濟的手段。
除了美國之外，英國政府稍早之前已宣布750億英鎊賺買中長期債券計畫，另外，又以500億英鎊收購短期債券。日本則以1兆日圓收賺1年期到期的公司債，同時為了鼓勵銀行放貸，購買1兆日圓日本大型銀行發行的次順位債券。而擴大收購的公債，每個月上限增為1.8兆日圓。這是全世界共同展開最大規模的空前印鈔票中救市行動。全球金融市場立即發行重大影響。
一是美元開始重挫，美元指數才剛寫下89.624的三年新高價，20日美元指數跳空下跌，最低跌到82.764，這個大跳空下跌，很可能是美元頹勢的開始。美元急貶，歐元拉升到1.3674，英鎊漲到1.4539，韓元一度回升到1391，台幣則回升到33.774，從35.2464升值幅度已不小。美元急貶，產生了新的資金流動。
二是這種大印鈔票的手段，使民眾對紙幣價值重新評估，金價再度大漲，19日金價大漲逾7%，24日繼續大漲到962美元，頗有捲土重來再挑戰1000美元的架式，除了黃金大漲，油價也站上50美元大關，收在51.6美元，這是油價多空重要轉捩點。而貴金屬的銅價直逼4000美元，農產品如小麥、黃豆、玉米再度大漲。
這顯示市場對通膨頗有期待，美國是不是有意製造另一個更大的泡沫，用大通膨來治療這次的經濟蕭條。未來如果原物料仍繼續上漲，將改變目前金融市場的生態，主要的關鍵是各國央行拼命灑錢，流動性的問題一旦獲得解決，股市的動能會不會顯著回升，這是很值得注意的焦點。
這次由低價股帶動的反彈，像花旗從0.97美元漲到3.89美元，已足足漲了3倍，AIG從0.33美元漲到1.38美元，也是漲3倍，美國銀行從2.53美元漲到8.57美元，也是漲了238%，其他如富國銀行，GM、GE、福特汽車，美光漲幅都有1倍到2倍之間，這些因為資金找出路而激起的反彈，能不能協助美股站上7500點值得期待。
台股從農曆年以來，六週交易，週線上漲五週，只有一週是收黑，週量也從2915億放大到5522億元，不過這一週台股拉高到5125，卻收在4961，台股已留上長上影線，高漲幅的個股回檔明顯，顯然5000點是一個多空交戰激烈的區域，在這個地方大換手之後，多空孰勝孰負，才能看出這裡是不是另一次中段整理，如果高姿態整理可以持續，台股仍有後勢可以期待。不過全球大印鈔票的選股趨勢也會有重大改變，這兩天營建股轉強，已多少看出這個端倪。
除了美國之外，英國政府稍早之前已宣布750億英鎊賺買中長期債券計畫，另外，又以500億英鎊收購短期債券。日本則以1兆日圓收賺1年期到期的公司債，同時為了鼓勵銀行放貸，購買1兆日圓日本大型銀行發行的次順位債券。而擴大收購的公債，每個月上限增為1.8兆日圓。這是全世界共同展開最大規模的空前印鈔票中救市行動。全球金融市場立即發行重大影響。
一是美元開始重挫，美元指數才剛寫下89.624的三年新高價，20日美元指數跳空下跌，最低跌到82.764，這個大跳空下跌，很可能是美元頹勢的開始。美元急貶，歐元拉升到1.3674，英鎊漲到1.4539，韓元一度回升到1391，台幣則回升到33.774，從35.2464升值幅度已不小。美元急貶，產生了新的資金流動。
二是這種大印鈔票的手段，使民眾對紙幣價值重新評估，金價再度大漲，19日金價大漲逾7%，24日繼續大漲到962美元，頗有捲土重來再挑戰1000美元的架式，除了黃金大漲，油價也站上50美元大關，收在51.6美元，這是油價多空重要轉捩點。而貴金屬的銅價直逼4000美元，農產品如小麥、黃豆、玉米再度大漲。
這顯示市場對通膨頗有期待，美國是不是有意製造另一個更大的泡沫，用大通膨來治療這次的經濟蕭條。未來如果原物料仍繼續上漲，將改變目前金融市場的生態，主要的關鍵是各國央行拼命灑錢，流動性的問題一旦獲得解決，股市的動能會不會顯著回升，這是很值得注意的焦點。
這次由低價股帶動的反彈，像花旗從0.97美元漲到3.89美元，已足足漲了3倍，AIG從0.33美元漲到1.38美元，也是漲3倍，美國銀行從2.53美元漲到8.57美元，也是漲了238%，其他如富國銀行，GM、GE、福特汽車，美光漲幅都有1倍到2倍之間，這些因為資金找出路而激起的反彈，能不能協助美股站上7500點值得期待。
台股從農曆年以來，六週交易，週線上漲五週，只有一週是收黑，週量也從2915億放大到5522億元，不過這一週台股拉高到5125，卻收在4961，台股已留上長上影線，高漲幅的個股回檔明顯，顯然5000點是一個多空交戰激烈的區域，在這個地方大換手之後，多空孰勝孰負，才能看出這裡是不是另一次中段整理，如果高姿態整理可以持續，台股仍有後勢可以期待。不過全球大印鈔票的選股趨勢也會有重大改變，這兩天營建股轉強，已多少看出這個端倪。
KepLand defers construction of Marina Bay Suites
Posted by luxuryasiahome on March 21, 2009
KEPPEL Land is deferring construction of the highly touted Marina Bay Suites (in which it has one-third stake) as well as Madison Residences in Bukit Timah, citing ‘current market conditions’. KepLand is developing the 221-unit Marina Bay Suites jointly with Cheung Kong Holdings/Hutchison Whampoa and Hongkong Land.
In a filing with the Singapore Exchange yesterday, KepLand announced construction deferral of the 56-unit Madison Residences on the former Naga Court site in Bukit Timah.
The group had earlier managed to sell just one unit in the project, at about $1,740 per square foot, in the second half of last year. However, a KepLand spokeswoman told BT yesterday that the sale of that unit has been cancelled by mutual agreement. ‘We are unable to provide details due to confidentiality,’ she added. When asked, she also revealed that ‘a decision has been made to defer the commencement of the main construction of Marina Bay Suites’. However, construction of another of the group’s residential projects in Singapore, The Promont, located in Cairnhill, will continue.
It has been one postponement after another for Marina Bay Suites because of deteriorating sentiment in the high-end residential sector. The tripartite partnership developing the condo had initially hoped to launch the project around end-January last year, but this was delayed to later the same quarter, and even then, that did not happen. The project has not been launched to date.
KepLand’s spokeswoman did not say how long the construction deferments for Marina Bay Suites and Madison Residences will be.
In its release to SGX, KepLand said the construction deferment for Madison Residences is not expected to have any significant impact on the consolidated earnings per share and net tangible asset per share of the company for the current financial year ending Dec 31, 2009.
Separately, construction group KSH Holdings also said in a statutory filing with SGX yesterday that it has agreed to the request of Keppel Land Realty to defer the construction of Madison Residences. The delay is not expected to have any material effect on KSH for the financial year ending March 31, 2009. KSH announced in April last year that it had won a $53 million contract from Keppel Land Realty relating to the construction of Madison Residences.
In January, Keppel Land’s group chief executive Kevin Wong said the group will conduct a review to see if it can delay building some of its projects. ‘We are reviewing our operation costs as well as the project costs of all our development projects to trim fat and conserve cash, so that we can invest in any attractive opportunities that come along. ‘This cost review exercise could include developing projects in phases to meet demand and even temporarily suspending the entire project if it does not add value to the company under current market conditions,’ Mr Wong said then. Projects that are yet to be launched for sale are those that are most likely to be delayed both in Singapore and abroad, he added.
KepLand’s earnings for the year ended Dec 31, 2008 fell 70.8 per cent to $227.7 million, from $779.7 million in FY 2007.
Source : Business Times - 21 Mar 2009
Bounce or bottom?
Saturday, 21 March 2009 23:11
THE STRAITS TIMES Index ended the week 1.2% higher, its second consecutive week of gains. But, volumes are still thin as the debate heats up on whether this is the long-awaited bottom.
Supporting the uptrend has been a rally in banks, particularly in the US. But, Goldman Sachs is doubtful of the recovery as fundamental data on consumer credit is not improving. The brokerage believes recent bank profitability has been driven partly by oneoff factors such as mortgage origination fees. Meanwhile, results of the stress tests on US banks may be released next month. Banks that fail could be forced to raise capital, while those that pass may issue equity to repay the government. Either way, significant equity issuance is expected.
Tham Mun Hon, an analyst at Daiwa, is advising clients against increasing equity exposure ahead of firmer signs of stabilisation. “Equities may be oversold from a technical perspective, but we believe that the fundamentals still do not justify a sustained rally. In fact, the latter have deteriorated further, prompting us to expect a retest of the October 2008 lows, and a probable break below,” he says. Tham recommends investors stick to defensive sectors such as infrastructure, telecoms and utilities.
But, HSBC strategist Garry Evans points to evidence from the biggest banking crises in the past, which show that as soon as the last troubled bank is rescued and monetary policy is eased aggressively, the stock market recovers strongly. “Even if this turns out to be only a bear market rally, it could go on for a while,” he says. “There is probably no point in being excessively bearish just now.”
Meanwhile, Credit Suisse notes that US mortgage applications have risen 131% from the lows in October. The bank says that of the nine global leading indicators it watches, six seem to be bottoming: US mortgages, China’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI), US Institute for Supply Management, German IFO business expectations, Chicago’s PMI and the Baltic Dry Index. It suggests investors play the theme of a bottoming in indicators via cyclicals such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, BHP Billiton, China Shenhua Energy Co and Posco.
WHAT TO LOOK OUT FOR?Expect the fever of rights anxiety to continue a little longer.
The latest victim was Sembcorp Industries, which had to issue a statement clarifying that the shareholder approval it is seeking for a share issue mandate is mere routine. A recent note by Kim Eng, however, does not rule out the possibility of a cash call in the near future as the company could need money to fund a water-and-power project in Oman. The company reportedly had trouble securing financing for the project. Kim Eng also cites concern over low margins as sources suggest Sembcorp dropped its tariff pricing to clinch the deal.
DMG & Partners Securities says United Overseas Bank, Suntec REIT and Swiber Holdings are also possible candidates for rights issues.
Rents in prime areas head south
Posted by luxuryasiahome on March 22, 2009
Tenants looking for apartments in prime districts are having it good as rents there head south.
Right now, rentals of these units are falling faster than those in the mass market.
Among the reasons: New supplies have entered the market. A number of new condominiums have sprung up in prime districts - many of which have been bought by investors planning to rent out their units - in the past year.
Also given the economic downturn, some expatriates are leaving while others have their housing budgets cut. So landlords in prime districts 9, 10 and 11 face the need to bring down their rents come renewal time so as to keep their tenants.
Prime rents are now halfway through heading south, said Cushman & Wakefield Singapore managing director Donald Han.
‘We expect the rents in districts 9, 10 and 11 to come down by close to 15 per cent this year,’ he said.
‘From the middle of last year till now, they would have fallen by 15 per cent to 20 per cent. We are seeing an outflow (of expat tenants), not an inflow. It’s a net exodus.’
Rents in non-prime and suburban areas have also fallen by 15 per cent to 20 per cent and are set to slip by another 10 per cent this year, said Mr Han.
It will be a comparatively smaller fall because there are not as many units available for rent in these areas compared with prime areas, he said.
Another property consultancy, Jones Lang LaSalle, said residential rents have fallen by about 10 per cent to 30 per cent across the island so far this quarter, compared with last year’s fourth quarter.
Rents of prime properties have dipped by an average of 15 per cent quarter-on-quarter, it said.
There was additional pressure on rents at The Sail, a huge 1,111-unit condominium in downtown Marina Bay, as more and more units entered the leasing market, said Jones Lang LaSalle’s head of residential, Singapore, Ms Jacqueline Wong.
Unit owners started collecting their keys from the middle of last year.
For instance, the transacted rents for one-bedroom units of 690sq ft in size now stand at $3,200 a month, down from $4,500 in June last year, said MsWong.
Other recently completed condos include Domain 21 in Delta Road, The Beacon in Cantonment Road, The Azure in Sentosa Cove and St Regis Residences in Tanglin.
Condos like Rivergate in Robertson Quay have just joined the list, offering plenty of new units for lease.
There is increasing rental pressure on the still vacant units in recently completed prime projects, such as the super-luxurious, 173-unit St Regis, where a lot of units, including large penthouses, are up for rent.
Anecdotal evidence suggests the St Regis rents start at $7,500 for the smallest three-bedroom, 1,507 sq ft unit and $20,000 for the 3,757 sq ft, four-bedroom unit, which will put the starting rents for such sizes at just between $5 per sq ft (psf) and $5.30 psf a month.
Jones Lang LaSalle Research’s average rent record for Grange Residences, a prime but slightly older condo, is at $6.20 psf per month at the end of last year.
‘There are now too many apartments chasing too few tenants,’ said Chesterton Suntec International’s head of research and consultancy, Mr Colin Tan.
In particular, the older prime condos that developers bought collectively and are now keeping for lease are suffering more, as their conditions may not warrant market rents, experts say.
The rental market for private homes is in ‘a state of flux’ at the moment, said Mr Tan.
‘The rental you are quoted this month can and does change, so much so that some tenants whose leases are expiring soon are seeking temporary extensions - three to six months - to their current lease before settling on something more permanent. The savings can be substantial,’ Mr Tan said.
Given this situation, Mr Han advised landlords to be flexible.
‘Sometimes, it is better to find a tenant who is willing to take up the property early at a slightly reduced rental than to keep it empty.’
Property consultants say that, for now, high-end homes are still able to secure tenants as falling rents have attracted new tenants.
‘We are seeing some movements of tenants from outside the central area coming in,’ said Mr Han.
But the falling rents of such flats may result in more owners dipping into their own pockets to help foot their monthly mortgage payments instead of relying on just the rent.
Currently, with mortgage rates still reasonably attractive, landlords should still be able to cover much of their instalment payment at today’s rentals, said Mr Han.
‘However, for the high-end properties completing in the second half of this year, the potential rental income may not be sufficient to cover mortgage payments,’ he said.
Source : Sunday Times - 22 Mar 2009
Tenants looking for apartments in prime districts are having it good as rents there head south.
Right now, rentals of these units are falling faster than those in the mass market.
Among the reasons: New supplies have entered the market. A number of new condominiums have sprung up in prime districts - many of which have been bought by investors planning to rent out their units - in the past year.
Also given the economic downturn, some expatriates are leaving while others have their housing budgets cut. So landlords in prime districts 9, 10 and 11 face the need to bring down their rents come renewal time so as to keep their tenants.
Prime rents are now halfway through heading south, said Cushman & Wakefield Singapore managing director Donald Han.
‘We expect the rents in districts 9, 10 and 11 to come down by close to 15 per cent this year,’ he said.
‘From the middle of last year till now, they would have fallen by 15 per cent to 20 per cent. We are seeing an outflow (of expat tenants), not an inflow. It’s a net exodus.’
Rents in non-prime and suburban areas have also fallen by 15 per cent to 20 per cent and are set to slip by another 10 per cent this year, said Mr Han.
It will be a comparatively smaller fall because there are not as many units available for rent in these areas compared with prime areas, he said.
Another property consultancy, Jones Lang LaSalle, said residential rents have fallen by about 10 per cent to 30 per cent across the island so far this quarter, compared with last year’s fourth quarter.
Rents of prime properties have dipped by an average of 15 per cent quarter-on-quarter, it said.
There was additional pressure on rents at The Sail, a huge 1,111-unit condominium in downtown Marina Bay, as more and more units entered the leasing market, said Jones Lang LaSalle’s head of residential, Singapore, Ms Jacqueline Wong.
Unit owners started collecting their keys from the middle of last year.
For instance, the transacted rents for one-bedroom units of 690sq ft in size now stand at $3,200 a month, down from $4,500 in June last year, said MsWong.
Other recently completed condos include Domain 21 in Delta Road, The Beacon in Cantonment Road, The Azure in Sentosa Cove and St Regis Residences in Tanglin.
Condos like Rivergate in Robertson Quay have just joined the list, offering plenty of new units for lease.
There is increasing rental pressure on the still vacant units in recently completed prime projects, such as the super-luxurious, 173-unit St Regis, where a lot of units, including large penthouses, are up for rent.
Anecdotal evidence suggests the St Regis rents start at $7,500 for the smallest three-bedroom, 1,507 sq ft unit and $20,000 for the 3,757 sq ft, four-bedroom unit, which will put the starting rents for such sizes at just between $5 per sq ft (psf) and $5.30 psf a month.
Jones Lang LaSalle Research’s average rent record for Grange Residences, a prime but slightly older condo, is at $6.20 psf per month at the end of last year.
‘There are now too many apartments chasing too few tenants,’ said Chesterton Suntec International’s head of research and consultancy, Mr Colin Tan.
In particular, the older prime condos that developers bought collectively and are now keeping for lease are suffering more, as their conditions may not warrant market rents, experts say.
The rental market for private homes is in ‘a state of flux’ at the moment, said Mr Tan.
‘The rental you are quoted this month can and does change, so much so that some tenants whose leases are expiring soon are seeking temporary extensions - three to six months - to their current lease before settling on something more permanent. The savings can be substantial,’ Mr Tan said.
Given this situation, Mr Han advised landlords to be flexible.
‘Sometimes, it is better to find a tenant who is willing to take up the property early at a slightly reduced rental than to keep it empty.’
Property consultants say that, for now, high-end homes are still able to secure tenants as falling rents have attracted new tenants.
‘We are seeing some movements of tenants from outside the central area coming in,’ said Mr Han.
But the falling rents of such flats may result in more owners dipping into their own pockets to help foot their monthly mortgage payments instead of relying on just the rent.
Currently, with mortgage rates still reasonably attractive, landlords should still be able to cover much of their instalment payment at today’s rentals, said Mr Han.
‘However, for the high-end properties completing in the second half of this year, the potential rental income may not be sufficient to cover mortgage payments,’ he said.
Source : Sunday Times - 22 Mar 2009
海峡时报指数(STI)
（2009-03-23） ● 银 本栏于上周一（16日）曾预估指数短期内可能回扯填补介于1524.48点至1493.53点间的缺口，过后将回升填补介于1561.50点至1594.87点及介于1641.05点至1651.06点间的缺口。果然，指数虽未能将上述的第一个缺口填补，但却渐升，19日升试1598.20点，遂将上述第二个缺口填补了。由于其每日一杆图中的短期动力已经准备就绪，估计本周内或将有较明显的升幅，而向上填补介于1641.05点至1651.06点间的缺口势将水到渠成。另指数若于本月底能在1594.87点之上闭市，则其每月一杆图中将出现“转向”讯号以推波助澜了。
Friday, March 20, 2009
Citi forecasts 2 bad quarters but believes bottom may be nigh for stocks
Thursday, 05 March 2009 15:59
JUST AS THE economic numbers start to look uglier with forecasts of up to 8% contraction this year, a new report from US investment bank Citigroup, one of the most bearish on the local market for over a year, says there is a silver lining amidst the gathering dark clouds.
Make no mistake, Citigroup still believes the economy is really bad but suggests that the worst could soon be over. “2009 will likely be Singapore’s worst ever recession, with GDP growth in the magnitude of –5%,” Citigroup said in a Singapore equities strategy report published on March 5. “We are in uncharted territory.”
Indeed, the US banking group believes that as one of the world’s most open and trade dependent economies, Singapore’s first quarter of 2009 will likely see the worst quarterly contraction in history. Citigroup actually forecasts a huge contraction — in the magnitude of –10%.The investment bank warns Singaporeans not to hold out for a quick V-shaped recovery in the real economy this year. It predicts that even in the second quarter of 2009, Singapore’s economy will shrink 8% year-on-year. “Exports have fallen off a cliff, inflation pressures have subsided, while foreign reserves have been declining as MAS intervenes more frequently to defend the lower side of the band,” the report said. Citigroup’s Southeast Asian economist Kit-Wei Zheng expects Singapore dollar to depreciate to 1.62 to a US dollar by mid-2009.
Citigroup believes the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS), the quasi central bank, will likely weaken the Singapore Dollar and shift the currency’s trading band downwards at its early April policy meeting.
Is the bombed-out Singapore market now starting to show up some real value for long-term investors? Yes and no, say Citigroup’s Singapore equity strategists in the report. They seemed to suggest that buying early in a downturn might be foolhardy. “Uncertainty over the duration and depth of this recession — given the global recession which is accompanied by severe global financial and banking stress — favours a patient strategy,” strategist Chua Hak Bin writes in the report. “Buying past the quarter of worst GDP contraction historically delivers higher and more consistent returns, based on the last four ‘chartered’ recessions,” they argue in the report.
A better entry point, they say, may be sometime in the second or third quarter of this year rather than the current quarter. Moreover, they say since the current slump is “the worst recession ever, with an economic recovery — when it does arrive — that is likely to be U-shaped rather than V-shaped.” The current bear market, their report says, is also only in its 73rd week, still short of the average 85 weeks seen in previous recessions. The current analysts consensus of 12 months forward earnings growth is –21%, still far away from the –30% to –33% seen in past recessions, suggesting further analyst downgrades.
Still, Citigroup analysts readily concede that valuations are now looking “compelling” though they go on to argue that the benchmark STI is unlikely to stage a convincing recovery until macroeconomic conditions improve. The current 1,500 mark for the STI would represent a price to book value or PBV of about 0.9 times, far lower than the troughs seen in the aftermath of 2001 tech bubble burst (1.25x PBV) and 2003 SARS-induced slump (1.16x PBV), but still above that seen in 1998 Asian crisis (0.7x PBV). Citigroup’s worst-case scenario for STI is 1,200 (or 0.7 times PBV) but the investment bank’s strategist concede “we may not get there”.
Little wonder then that Citigroup strategists who have been fairly bearish about Singapore equities for more than year have now turned neutral at current STI level of 1,500 because many key STI component stocks have fallen below its own most bearish “recession-based” target prices.“We prefer telcos over property developers,” Citi strategists wrote. “Banks are no longer Top Sells.” Its Top Buys include real-estate trust Ascendas REIT which has addressed its refinancing issues, media giant Singapore Press Holdings which offers a mouth-watering 12% dividend yield, mobile operator MobileOne which offers great value at 9% dividend yield, integrated regional telco Singapore Telecommunications and ST Engineering.Its Top Sells include flag carrier Singapore Airlines which is beset with slumping passenger demand, cargo & jet fuel hedging losses as well as container shipping giant Neptune Orient Lines whose revenues remain weak as global trade stagnates while containership over-supply looms and regional property giant Capitaland.
Palm oil prices may fall to RM1,500 on weaker crude: top analyst
Thursday, 12 March 2009 14:14
Malaysian crude palm oil futures may fall back to RM1,500 ($622) by July, felled by slow demand and lower crude oil prices, a top industry analyst said today.
“We would be set for a soft landing, with BMD futures settling in the RM1,400–1,500 range, that is on trend,” James Fry, chairman of commodities consultancy LMC International, said in a speech in Kuala Lumpur.
Earlier, Fry told Reuters that Malaysian crude palm oil prices would probably drop at least 10% in the next six months as a worsening global recession cuts into food and fuel consumption.
Crude oil rebounded towards US$43 a barrel today after a 10% fall in the past two sessions on bearish data for the US and China, the world’s two largest oil consumers, and ahead of Opec’s meeting this weekend.
The benchmark May palm oil contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange were trading down 0.8% at RM1,965 per tonne by 12:16pm.
Malaysian palm oil inventories would fall towards 1.5 million tonnes but this was largely seasonal, due to the decline in production, Fry told a palm industry meeting. “The underlying stock output trend is not expected to be particularly tight,” he added.
Malaysian crude palm oil stocks fell 15% in February to a 16-month low, a drop that was bigger than traders had expected, as production of the vegetable oil declined faster than the drop in exports, data showed on yesterday.
Inventories fell to 1,561,151 tonnes, according to data from official crop agency Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), deeper than the 8.6% fall to 1.67 million tonnes forecast in a Reuters poll.
Malaysian crude palm oil futures may fall back to RM1,500 ($622) by July, felled by slow demand and lower crude oil prices, a top industry analyst said today.
“We would be set for a soft landing, with BMD futures settling in the RM1,400–1,500 range, that is on trend,” James Fry, chairman of commodities consultancy LMC International, said in a speech in Kuala Lumpur.
Earlier, Fry told Reuters that Malaysian crude palm oil prices would probably drop at least 10% in the next six months as a worsening global recession cuts into food and fuel consumption.
Crude oil rebounded towards US$43 a barrel today after a 10% fall in the past two sessions on bearish data for the US and China, the world’s two largest oil consumers, and ahead of Opec’s meeting this weekend.
The benchmark May palm oil contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange were trading down 0.8% at RM1,965 per tonne by 12:16pm.
Malaysian palm oil inventories would fall towards 1.5 million tonnes but this was largely seasonal, due to the decline in production, Fry told a palm industry meeting. “The underlying stock output trend is not expected to be particularly tight,” he added.
Malaysian crude palm oil stocks fell 15% in February to a 16-month low, a drop that was bigger than traders had expected, as production of the vegetable oil declined faster than the drop in exports, data showed on yesterday.
Inventories fell to 1,561,151 tonnes, according to data from official crop agency Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), deeper than the 8.6% fall to 1.67 million tonnes forecast in a Reuters poll.
StarHub rated buy
Thursday, 19 March 2009 13:54
Goldman Sachs in a Mar 16 research report says: "StarHub’s recent 4Q results were better than expected and management guided for 'low single digit' revenue growth for 2009 despite the sharp slowdown in Singapore’s economy. We have raised our 2009/2010/2011 earnings forecasts by 4%/4%/2% on the back of higher revenue expectations and increase our 12-month SOTP (sum-of-the-part) based target price to $2.51 (from $2.45). "Although we think that there is risk to StarHub’s revenue growth guidance given macro uncertainties, we are more confident that it will be able to maintain its free cash flow (FCF) to support its 18 cents (9% current yield) minimum dividend guidance, due to its low capex and stable margins. StarHub trades at 2009E FCF/equity and FCF/EV yields of 11.7% and 9.6%, respectively, which we view as attractive relative to its regional peers’ yields of 8.7% and 8.5%. BUY."Back to Top
Goldman Sachs in a Mar 16 research report says: "StarHub’s recent 4Q results were better than expected and management guided for 'low single digit' revenue growth for 2009 despite the sharp slowdown in Singapore’s economy. We have raised our 2009/2010/2011 earnings forecasts by 4%/4%/2% on the back of higher revenue expectations and increase our 12-month SOTP (sum-of-the-part) based target price to $2.51 (from $2.45). "Although we think that there is risk to StarHub’s revenue growth guidance given macro uncertainties, we are more confident that it will be able to maintain its free cash flow (FCF) to support its 18 cents (9% current yield) minimum dividend guidance, due to its low capex and stable margins. StarHub trades at 2009E FCF/equity and FCF/EV yields of 11.7% and 9.6%, respectively, which we view as attractive relative to its regional peers’ yields of 8.7% and 8.5%. BUY."Back to Top
Buy China, emerging markets over 2 years, Marc Faber says
Monday, 16 March 2009 13:56
CHINA AND OTHER emerging markets offer value over the next two years as growth picks up, investor Marc Faber said.
Investors should buy stocks and other assets in China after the market falls to its 2008 low to profit from an expected recovery, Faber said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. China is the world’s best-performing stock market this year.
“Rapidly growing countries have setbacks from time to time,” Faber, the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, said in Hong Kong. “I think we’re going to test the lows again, but over the next two years, it’s probably a good time to invest.”
The MSCI World Index has retreated 18% this year, extending last year’s record 42% slump, amid concern the widening financial crisis and global recession will sap corporate profits. The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks the larger of China’s two mainland exchanges, has gained 16% in 2009.
China is betting that a 4 trillion yuan ($900 billion) stimulus package and interest-rate cuts will help it reach its 8% growth target this year. The global economy is expected to expand at a 0.5% expansion, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Industrial and precious metals are attractive investments after the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities “collapsed,” Faber added. The CRB Index has dropped 8% this year, adding to the 36% retreat in 2008.
“Asset markets have already discounted a lot of the bad economic news,” he said. “ Some assets like commodities are very, very inexpensive.”
Faber had advised buying gold at the start of its eight-year rally, when it traded for less than US$300 an ounce. The metal topped US$1,000 last year and traded at US$932.78 an ounce today. He also told investors to bail out of US stocks a week before the so-called Black Monday crash in 1987, according to his website.
He continues to favour gold, which has gained 19% in the past six months because currencies including the US dollar are “not desirable”.
Stock markets are “not particularly expensive” and investors should consider buying them in anticipation of a recovery, Faber advised. The MSCI global index is valued at 11 times reported earnings, half its 10-year average multiple of 22.
“We also have a lot of equities that are not particularly expensive because they’ve collapsed,” Faber said. “These are relatively sound companies and whenever the recovery will come, they will be in a strong position.”
CHINA AND OTHER emerging markets offer value over the next two years as growth picks up, investor Marc Faber said.
Investors should buy stocks and other assets in China after the market falls to its 2008 low to profit from an expected recovery, Faber said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. China is the world’s best-performing stock market this year.
“Rapidly growing countries have setbacks from time to time,” Faber, the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, said in Hong Kong. “I think we’re going to test the lows again, but over the next two years, it’s probably a good time to invest.”
The MSCI World Index has retreated 18% this year, extending last year’s record 42% slump, amid concern the widening financial crisis and global recession will sap corporate profits. The Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks the larger of China’s two mainland exchanges, has gained 16% in 2009.
China is betting that a 4 trillion yuan ($900 billion) stimulus package and interest-rate cuts will help it reach its 8% growth target this year. The global economy is expected to expand at a 0.5% expansion, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Industrial and precious metals are attractive investments after the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities “collapsed,” Faber added. The CRB Index has dropped 8% this year, adding to the 36% retreat in 2008.
“Asset markets have already discounted a lot of the bad economic news,” he said. “ Some assets like commodities are very, very inexpensive.”
Faber had advised buying gold at the start of its eight-year rally, when it traded for less than US$300 an ounce. The metal topped US$1,000 last year and traded at US$932.78 an ounce today. He also told investors to bail out of US stocks a week before the so-called Black Monday crash in 1987, according to his website.
He continues to favour gold, which has gained 19% in the past six months because currencies including the US dollar are “not desirable”.
Stock markets are “not particularly expensive” and investors should consider buying them in anticipation of a recovery, Faber advised. The MSCI global index is valued at 11 times reported earnings, half its 10-year average multiple of 22.
“We also have a lot of equities that are not particularly expensive because they’ve collapsed,” Faber said. “These are relatively sound companies and whenever the recovery will come, they will be in a strong position.”
Capitaland rated buy
Thursday, 19 March 2009 14:05
Goldman Sachs in a Mar 19 research report says: "We upgrade Capitaland to buy (from neutral) and add it to our Conviction List as we see its wide discount to NAV of 38% vs. City Dev of 21% as attractive given its diversified business model and strong balance sheet (better positioned today than during the 1998 down-cycle when its gearing was 0.95X vs. 0.27X currently). "Moreover, its decision to step up efforts to dispose investment assets ($7 billion in two years) to raise cash has positioned it well to reinvest for the next cycle. We believe Capitaland could look at potential acquisitions once macro conditions improve, enabling it to generate above sector NAV growth in the next three years. We cut our 12-month target price to $2.68 from $2.81; we maintain our 20% disc to RNAV. We cut 2009-2010E core EPS by 5-25% on weaker prices and raise 2011E by 12% on a pick up in residential contribution. UPGRADE TO BUY."Back to Top
Goldman Sachs in a Mar 19 research report says: "We upgrade Capitaland to buy (from neutral) and add it to our Conviction List as we see its wide discount to NAV of 38% vs. City Dev of 21% as attractive given its diversified business model and strong balance sheet (better positioned today than during the 1998 down-cycle when its gearing was 0.95X vs. 0.27X currently). "Moreover, its decision to step up efforts to dispose investment assets ($7 billion in two years) to raise cash has positioned it well to reinvest for the next cycle. We believe Capitaland could look at potential acquisitions once macro conditions improve, enabling it to generate above sector NAV growth in the next three years. We cut our 12-month target price to $2.68 from $2.81; we maintain our 20% disc to RNAV. We cut 2009-2010E core EPS by 5-25% on weaker prices and raise 2011E by 12% on a pick up in residential contribution. UPGRADE TO BUY."Back to Top
Edge: Mar 20: Cosco, Keppel Land, SingTel, StarHub
Friday, 20 March 2009 09:01
The Straits Times Index, fell 0.21% in the opening minutes. The index of 30 companies traded on Singapore Exchange fell 3.32 to 1,581.54. Among the stocks in the index, 9 rose, 15 fell and 6 were unchanged. Declines in the Straits Times Index were led by DBS Group Holdings, United Overseas Bank and Oversea-chinese Banking Corp. About 27.65 million shares changed hands in Singapore.
Keppel Corp, which rose 6 cents to $4.43, was the most active stock by value in Singapore.
The next most-active issues were SingTel, which rose 1 cents to $2.46, and DBS Group Holdings, which fell 6 cents to $7.65.
The following companies may have unusual price changes in trading, says Thomson Reuters and Bloomberg.
Energy-related stocks such as Keppel Group (KPLM.SI) and Sembcorp Marine (SCMN.SI) may be in focus on Friday after oil prices jumped more than 7% on the US Federal Reserve’s plan to fight recession.
Shipbuilders: Bulk-shipping lines may cancel or defer as much as 65% of the vessels they are scheduled to receive next year amid the global recession and concerns about overcapacity, HSBC Holdings Plc analysts Steve Man and Ankur Sharma wrote in a March 18 report. “With bulk-shipping lines cutting capacity to adjust to lower demand, the massive deliveries for bulkers scheduled for 2009 to 2011 will need to be deferred,” the analysts wrote. Stocks of shipbuilders like Cosco Corp. Singapore, which has already announced 30 order cancellations and deferrals, and Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings may see significant trading.
SingTel (ST SP) and its rival Internet service providers MobileOne (M1 SP) and StarHub (STH SP) have cut their monthly subscription prices by as much as 30% to draw customers amid the recession, The Straits Times reported.
Fishing fleet operator China Fishery Group (CFG SP) said it will not proceed with a final dividend of 6.03 cents a share. Instead, the company is proposing to give shareholders one bonus share for every 10 shares held.
Keppel Land (KPLD SP), property development unit of the world’s biggest builder of oil rigs, had its rating upgraded to “neutral” from “underweight” at JPMorgan Chase & Co, saying the share-price has already factored into the outlook for writedowns and increased debt.
Parkway Holdings (PWAY SP), Singapore’s biggest hospital operator, said it has reached an amicable settlement with Qwek Koo, a former marketing manager, who claimed Parkway owes him $2.1 million. Details of the settlement are confidential, Parkway said.
Electronic firm Enzer Corporation (ENZR.SI) said two of its subsidiaries, incorporated in Singapore and Malaysia, have initiated creditor's voluntary winding-up liquidation proceedings.
Malaysia’s IOI sees palm oil at RM2,000
Friday, 20 March 2009 09:44 Share this Digg Del.icio.us StumbleUpon Netscape Yahoo Technorati Googlize this FacebookExport PDFPrintE-mail
Malaysia’s IOI Corp, the world’s third-largest listed palm oil producer, said the price of crude palm oil could rise 20% due to falling domestic stockpiles.
“We see prices trading within a range of RM2,000 to RM2,300 ($829 to $954), averaging about RM2,000 a tonne. This should be the fair value of palm oil for the time being,” said IOI Group Executive Chairman Lee Shin Cheng, without providing a timeframe for the forecast.
“Demand for palm oil is sustaining as can be seen from the drawdown of stocks in Malaysia. Palm oil stocks in Malaysia is now at a 16-month low,” Lee told Thomson Reuters in an email when asked to comment on the price outlook for the tropical oil.
Lee’s view on palm oil are closely followed by traders and industry analysts. Malaysia’s crude palm oil inventories fell 15% to a 16-month low in February, a bigger than expected drop, as production of the vegetable oil declined faster than the drop in exports, industry data showed last week.
Malaysia is the world's second largest palm producer in the world after Indonesia.
The benchmark palm oil futures contract on the Malaysian derivatives exchange is currently hovering slightly above RM1,900 a tonne.
CPO prices have gained nearly 13% this year as stocks in Indonesia and Malaysia dropped to an average of 4 million tonnes from a record 5 million in December on good Asian demand.
But industry analysts last week predicted that palm oil prices will suffer from selling pressure in the second half of 2009 due to weaker commodity markets, slowing demand and an uptick in output.
Lee is maintaining his relatively bullish view, which he has held since the fourth quarter last year, even as the global economic outlook has significantly worsened over the past few months.
“The severity of the current global economic crisis has surprised everyone including the experts,” said Lee. “This crisis has affected almost all commodities adversely as economic activities slumped. However vegetable oils being a staple food item is more resilient,” he added.
Malaysia’s IOI Corp, the world’s third-largest listed palm oil producer, said the price of crude palm oil could rise 20% due to falling domestic stockpiles.
“We see prices trading within a range of RM2,000 to RM2,300 ($829 to $954), averaging about RM2,000 a tonne. This should be the fair value of palm oil for the time being,” said IOI Group Executive Chairman Lee Shin Cheng, without providing a timeframe for the forecast.
“Demand for palm oil is sustaining as can be seen from the drawdown of stocks in Malaysia. Palm oil stocks in Malaysia is now at a 16-month low,” Lee told Thomson Reuters in an email when asked to comment on the price outlook for the tropical oil.
Lee’s view on palm oil are closely followed by traders and industry analysts. Malaysia’s crude palm oil inventories fell 15% to a 16-month low in February, a bigger than expected drop, as production of the vegetable oil declined faster than the drop in exports, industry data showed last week.
Malaysia is the world's second largest palm producer in the world after Indonesia.
The benchmark palm oil futures contract on the Malaysian derivatives exchange is currently hovering slightly above RM1,900 a tonne.
CPO prices have gained nearly 13% this year as stocks in Indonesia and Malaysia dropped to an average of 4 million tonnes from a record 5 million in December on good Asian demand.
But industry analysts last week predicted that palm oil prices will suffer from selling pressure in the second half of 2009 due to weaker commodity markets, slowing demand and an uptick in output.
Lee is maintaining his relatively bullish view, which he has held since the fourth quarter last year, even as the global economic outlook has significantly worsened over the past few months.
“The severity of the current global economic crisis has surprised everyone including the experts,” said Lee. “This crisis has affected almost all commodities adversely as economic activities slumped. However vegetable oils being a staple food item is more resilient,” he added.
亚太航空业可能停飞10%飞机
Airlines in the Asia-Pacific region are at a “tipping point”. They are only weeks away from grounding as much as 10 per cent of their aircraft as they grapple with weak revenues, falling load factors and excess capacity. 亚太地区的航空公司正处在“临界点”。要不了几周时间，它们就将停飞多达10%的飞机。这些航空公司正在全力应对收入疲软、载客率下降和运能过剩的局面。 The prediction from the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation, a consultancy, comes a day after Singapore Airlines recorded one of its worst monthly falls in passenger loads. 就在咨询机构亚太航空中心(Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation)发布上述预测的前一天，新加坡航空(Singapore Airlines)公布了历史上最大的客运量月度下降数字。 These dropped more than 20 per cent or by nearly 300,000 passengers in February compared with the same time last year. 与去年同期相比，2月份新航的客运量降幅超过20%，接近30万人次。 Tony Tyler, chief executive of Cathay Pacific, has warned that the Hong Kong carrier might need to take “very difficult decisions” to be sustainable. 国泰航空(Cathay Pacific)行政总裁汤彦麟(Tony Tyler)警告说，这家香港航空公司若想生存下去，可能需要作出“非常艰难的决定”。 Mr Tyler told staff in a newsletter that revenue outlook was “very poor” and it could take a long time before the carrier reached the bottom of the market. 汤彦麟在内部简讯中对员工表示，营收前景“非常差”，公司可能需要很长时间才能触及市场底部。 Cathay Pacific, which this month reported the biggest annual loss in its 63-year history, has cut capacity, grounded flights, delayed the construction of a cargo terminal and offered staff unpaid leave. 国泰航空本月公布了63年历史上最大的年度亏损数字。它已在削减运能，停飞航班，推迟一个货运站的建设，并向工作人员提供无薪假期。 Peter Harbison, executive chairman of CAPA, said Cathay Pacific was not alone in contemplating wholesale changes to its strategy as the global economy struggles. 亚太航空中心执行总裁彼德•哈比森(Peter Harbison)表示，由于全球经济低迷，国泰航空并不是唯一一家考虑大规模改变发展战略的公司。 “This region is very, very close to the tipping point, where the network carriers have to move away from taking reactionary or precautionary measures to taking fundamental actions that are different from what they have ever done before,” he said. “这个地区非常、非常接近引爆点。在这里，航空网络运营商必须告别反应性或预防性措施，转而采取不同以往的根本性行动，”他说。 Mr Harbison estimated that airlines in the region might ground as much as 10 per cent of their aircraft in the “coming weeks”. 哈比森估计，该地区航空公司可能在“未来几周内”停飞多达10%的飞机。
译者/力文
译者/力文
特写：中国大学生又下乡
4年前踏进大学校门时，萧立升（音译）拥有远大的抱负。他盼望在蓬勃发展的沿海大都市上海的一家出口公司拥有光明的前途。 Xiao Lisheng had big ambitions when he entered university four years ago. He expected a bright future in an export company in the booming coastal metropolis of Shanghai. 但现在，在他即将毕业并拿到国际经济贸易学位时，他的前途看来可能要系于宁夏的党委讲师团了。宁夏位于中国的西北部，偏远而贫困。 But now, as he prepares to graduate with a degree in international economics and trade, his future looks as if it may lie with the Communist party's educational league in the far-flung and impoverished north-west region of Ningxia. 全球经济放缓对中国沿海出口基地造成冲击，而今年6月中国将有600万大学生毕业，在此形势下，中国再一次将年轻的高校毕业生送向农村。 Faced with the impact of a slowing global economy on its coastal export base and 6m university students set to graduate alongside Mr Xiao this June, China is once again sending young university graduates back to the countryside. “我们鼓励大学生到城乡基层去，在西部地区担任村干部、教师和志愿者工作，”人力资源和社会保障部部长尹蔚民上周介绍政府解决大学生失业问题的计划时表示。 “We encourage graduates to serve in rural areas, taking posts such as village officials, teachers and volunteers in west China,” Yin Weimin, minister of human resources and social security, said last week as he outlined government plans to address unemployment among graduates. 中国共产党拥有将年轻知识分子送到广大农村内陆地区的悠久传统，常常给人带来可怕的折磨，并造成灾难性的经济后果。但中国官员及分析人士坚称，此次情况不同。 The Communist party has a long tradition of sending young intellectuals into China's vast rural hinterland, often causing terrible suffering and disastrous economic consequences. But Chinese officials and analysts insist that, this time, things are different. “上世纪50年代和文化大革命期间，（知识分子下乡）是出于意识形态动机，”清华大学政治经济学研究中心主任蔡继明表示。他本人1975年从高校毕业后曾在一家农场呆过3年。“如果我们能找到办法，使之对大学生和所去地区都有利，那就具有经济意义。” “In the 1950s and during the Cultural Revolution this happened with ideological motives,” says Cai Jiming, head of the Centre for Political Economy at Tsinghua University, who spent three years on a farm himself after graduating from high school in 1975. “If we can find a way to make this benefit both the graduates and the target regions, then it would make economic sense.” 中国政府认为大学生失业问题“形势严峻”，并已明确表示，它就像担心沿海工厂上千万失业民工一样担忧大学毕业生的命运。 The government has called the unemployment problem among graduates “grave” and made clear that it is almost as worried about the fate of university graduates as it is about the millions of migrant workers who have lost jobs in coastal factories. 对许多省级政府来说，大学生的困境为它们提供了一个机遇。有些政府已派出代表团，到大城市招聘工作没有着落的大学毕业生。在宁夏政府上周末举办的此类招聘会上，近千名大学生排队应征300多个职位。这些职位工资普遍很低，位于这些大学生中很多人几年前根本不会考虑的地区。 For many provincial governments the graduates' woes are presenting an opportunity, and some have been sending delegations to big cities to recruit graduates who are failing to find work elsewhere. At such an event held by the Ningxia government last weekend, close to 1,000 students lined up to apply for more than 300 mostly low-paid jobs in a region many of them would not even have considered moving to a few years ago. 萧立升应征的职位就属于这种情况。共产党讲师团派讲师们到全国各地“重新激起人们对社会主义的激情，传播马列主义毛泽东思想”，宁夏讲师团团长高亚东表示。“具备哲学硕士学位和爱国思想”是应征的主要条件。该工作年薪约为2万元人民币。 Such is the case with the post Mr Xiao is interviewing for. The Communist party's Educational League sends lecturers around the country to “refresh the enthusiasm for socialism and spread Marxism-Leninism and Mao Zedong thought,” says Gao Yadong, the Ningxia branch head. “A masters degree in philosophy and a patriotic mind” are the main qualifications for the job, which will pay about Rmb20,000 ($2,900, €2,270, £2,100) a year. 但萧立升十分明确地表示，就他本人来说，什么工作都行。“前些年，毕业班的学生在这个时候有80%都签了约，可今年我们班签了约的只有20%。” But Mr Xiao makes it quite clear that, as far as he is concerned, any job will do. “In past years, 80 per cent of students in their final year would have signed contracts by now, but this year it's only 20 per cent in our class,” he says. “所以眼下最重要的是找到一份有薪水的工作——以后我总是可以往上升的。” “So the priority right now is to find something with a salary – I can always move on later.” 译者/何黎
IBM拟收购Sun微系统公司
IBM is in advanced talks to acquire rival Sun Microsystems for roughly $6.5bn in cash, in a deal that could trigger wider consolidation across the technology industry as the recession shakes out weaker companies. IBM正就以约65亿美元现金收购竞争对手Sun微系统公司(Sun Microsystems)进行深入谈判，随着经济衰退淘汰较弱企业，该交易有可能在整个科技行业引发更多整合。 The acquisition would enable IBM, one of a handful of cash-rich companies to navigate the downturn so far largely unscathed, to cut costs sharply and bolster its computer hardware business in the slow-growing server market. IBM是少数几家迄今几乎安然度过经济低迷的现金充足的企业之一。该收购将使IBM得以大幅削减成本，并在增长缓慢的服务器市场提振自己的计算机硬件业务。 It would also loosen Microsoft's strong grip on parts of the server business and save Sun, a former Silicon Valley darling, from its struggle against shrunken demand and an over-reliance on hardware – the physical components of a computer system. 该交易还会松动微软(Microsoft)对部分服务器业务的强势控制，并使Sun这个昔日的硅谷宠儿免于苦苦应对需求萎缩及对硬件（计算机系统的物理组件）的过度依赖。 IBM and Sun were in talks yesterday over the possible acquisition – which would value Sun at about $10 per share, including the cash already on its balance sheet, according to people close to the matter. Sun would be IBM's biggest acquisition. IBM与Sun昨日就可能的收购进行了商谈。据知情人士表示，IBM的收购估价为每股约10美元，包括Sun资产负债表上的已有现金。该交易将会是IBM最大的一笔收购。 Analysts said any deal would face intense antitrust scrutiny. The two companies account for two-thirds of the $25.5bn global market for high-end servers. “People have been speculating about this one for years,” one dealmaker said. “IBM can take out an enormous amount of costs and there are also great synergies in terms of technology.” 分析师表示，任何交易都会受到严密的反垄断审查。这两家公司占据全球255亿美元高端服务器市场的三分之二。一名交易撮合者表示：“人们多年来一直在设想这一组合。IBM能够降低大量成本，而就技术而言，这也会产生巨大的协同效应。”
译者/陈云飞
译者/陈云飞
大宗商品价格昨日飙升
Commodities prices surged yesterday as investors sought protection against the risk of higher inflation by buying everything from oil and gold to copper and sugar. 大宗商品价格昨日飙升，因投资者希望通过买入从石油、黄金到铜、糖等各类大宗商品，来抵御通胀走高的风险。 Plans by the Federal Reserve to buy $300bn of US government debt triggered the stampede into commodities markets, which had suffered sharp price falls on worries that the world was heading for a depression. For the first time in almost a year, traders looked to oil and other raw materials as a hedge against an unexpected jump in prices. 美联储(Fed)购买3000亿美元美国国债的计划，导致投资者纷纷涌入大宗商品市场。此前由于市场担心全球正走向经济萧条，大宗商品价格曾出现大幅下跌。这是近一年来交易员们首次寻求将石油和其它原材料作为对冲手段，以防范物价意外飙升。 The benchmark S&P GSCI index, a basket of raw materials, rose 6 per cent as oil prices soared to $51 a barrel, up 7 per cent on the day, to their highest level since December. Copper reached a four-month high. 追踪一篮子原材料价格的基准指数标准普尔高盛商品指数(S&P GSCI)上涨6%，因油价昨日飙升至每桶51美元，为去年12月以来的最高水平，当日涨幅达7%。铜价也升至4个月高点。 The switch into commodities was triggered by concern that the US central bank might find it difficult to manage down the country's money supply when its economy turned. That could lead to sharply rising prices for many goods and services. 投资者转向大宗商品的原因是，人们担心在美国经济回升之时，美联储可能会发现很难减少货币供应。这可能会导致很多商品和服务的价格出现大幅上涨。 Hussein Allidina, head of commodities research at Morgan Stanley in New York, said: “Investors are buying commodities as protection against inflation and as a hedge against a weaker US dollar.” 摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)驻纽约大宗商品研究主管侯赛因•阿里迪纳(Hussein Allidina)表示：“投资者买入大宗商品是为了抵御通胀，并对冲美元走软的风险。” The price rises gained extra momentum from a weakening dollar. The US currency extended its fall against the euro to 4.5 per cent over the past two days, hitting a low of $1.37 per euro. 不断下跌的美元汇率也助长了大宗商品价格的涨势。过去两天，美元兑欧元汇率的跌幅扩大至4.5%，达到1欧元兑1.37美元的低点。 Gold rose to $960 a troy ounce, up 8 per cent since the Fed's announcement on Wednesday. 自美联储本周三发表声明以来，金价已上涨8%，至每盎司960美元。
译者/汪洋
译者/汪洋
美联储有意大举购买长期国债
The Federal Reserve yesterday stunned markets by announcing its intention to buy $300bn of long-term US government securities and another $850bn of securities issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
美联储(Fed)昨日宣布，有意购买3000亿美元长期国债，并再次购买8500亿美元房地美(Freddie Mac)和房利美(Fannie Mae)发行的证券，这一举动震惊了市场。
The aggressive moves caught investors unprepared. Government bonds soared with the yield on the 10-year paper, which was already down 6 basis points, falling another 45 basis points to 2.51 per cent. The Dow Jones, which had been down about 60 points prior to the Fed's statement was 100 points higher within minutes of the news crossing the wires.
这一大胆举措让投资者毫无准备。美国国债价格随之飙升，此前已下跌6个基点的10年期国债收益率又下跌了45个基点，至2.51%。道琼斯指数在消息传出的几分钟内上涨100点。美联储发表声明之前，该指数曾下跌约60点。
The US central bank had discussed the possibility of buying Treasuries before, but had appeared to back away from the idea in recent weeks. The bank explained it was buying Treasuries as an indirect way of lowering private borrowing rates. It hopes the massive purchases of mortgage-related securities will lower mortgage rates, allowing households to refinance at lower rates, and easing pressure on the battered housing market.
美联储此前曾讨论过购买国债的可能性，但最近几周似乎放弃了这一想法。美联储解释称，它购买国债是为了以一种间接方式降低私人借款利率。美联储希望大规模购买抵押贷款相关证券的做法，将推低抵押贷款利率，让美国家庭能够以更低的利率转按揭，同时缓解受到重创的住房市场的压力。
The Fed statement came soon after the Bank of Japan said it would increase its purchases of Japanese government bonds by nearly a third, from Y1,400bn ($14bn) a month to Y1,800bn.
在美联储发表声明之前不久，日本央行(BoJ)表示，将把购买日本国债的规模扩大近三分之一，从每月1.4万亿日元（合140亿美元）增至1.8万亿日元。
译者/梁艳裳
城市发展
（2009-03-20） 本栏于今年元月29日曾预估股价将向下填补介于5.50元至5.25元间的缺口后，再朝3.08元的支撑线前进。当时股价为5.93元左右。果然，股价于见报当天一度试6.00元后，就渐渐下跌，2月9日即下试5.00元，遂将上述缺口全予填补，过后继续下跌。3月9日股价下试4.05元，幸好该周五以4.84元闭市而成了每周一杆图中的“主要转向”讯号。估计短期回扯或将向下填补介于4.61元至4.48元间的缺口，过后当渐渐回升，因为一个技术调整即将出现，投资者宜伺机套利或平仓，以保存实力为上策。
新型投行向银行“挖角”
（2009-03-20） （新加坡路透电）当前金融危机迫使大银行纷纷裁员限薪，不少金融人才纷纷跳槽至新型投行和顶级对冲基金。 所谓新型投行（Boutique investment firms），指的是对快速发展行业拥有高度专注性的投资银行，为企业提供融资并购等服务，很少涉足传统投行的承销、发债和交易等业务。
顶级交易员跳槽
从新加坡至纽约，到处可见顶级交易员和销售主管跳槽，因政府向欧美大银行施压，要求其削减奖金。
高端猎头公司翰德（Hudson）的史东（Pernille Storm）说：“那些资产雄厚的投资公司、以及未遭遇严重赎回风潮的对冲基金，纷纷从大型银行挖走‘摇钱树’。”
新加坡最大对冲基金Artradis本月表示，从苏格兰皇家银行挖到一知名交易员，并招来一位瑞士信贷驻纽约公司高管。而投资顾问公司富士－毕特克尔顿（Fox-Pitt Kelton）最近从美林、汇丰等银行招募到五人专攻亚洲业务。
在伦敦，瑞银上月有两名资深欧洲投资银行家跳槽到Close Brothers，一名至Lazard，至少有三名能源领域银行家跳槽到Lexicon Partners。
在美国，随着雷曼崩溃、贝尔斯登垮台、美林被收购，跳槽风更猛烈。
致力于全球扩张
本月早些时候，投行Moelis称它请到前瑞银信贷固定收益部门全球主管拉杨（Chris Ryan），担任其在纽约的董事经理。新型投行目前致力于在全球扩张，比如本周美国长于企业并购业务的投行Evercore Partners，宣布与中国中信证券建立了战略合作伙伴关系。 富士－毕特克尔顿股权部门主管赫斯特（Thomas Hester）告诉路透社：“现在新型投行可以请到顶级人才，而在2005年至去年中期市场繁荣期间，这几乎是想都不敢想的。”
赫斯特本人原来是霸菱旗下销售主管，他是富士－毕特克尔顿新近招聘的人才之一。
许多新型投行在当前危机中表现强韧，吸引到热衷于独立投资意见的客户，并且它们多数未大幅举债投资于信贷衍生产品，因此未像许多欧美大银行那样遭遇重创。
全球有许多对冲基金在金融危机中崩溃，预计今年该行业将缩水至2005年水平，但盈利良好的业者仍充满吸引力。
多数对冲基金的运行模式是，不管公司运营状况如何，员工可以获得自己管理资产总额的2％。如果基金盈利，高于投资回报的下限，则员工还可以取得获利的20％。
奥巴马希望接受政府注资的企业高管年薪不超过50万美元，但在经营状况良好的对冲基金，高管年收入仍可达到数百万美元。
翰德的史东指出，如果银行整体情况不好，或大幅减记资产，那么高管可能根本拿不到奖金，因此他们当然会选择能够给他们带来最佳薪酬待遇的新东家。
顶级交易员跳槽
从新加坡至纽约，到处可见顶级交易员和销售主管跳槽，因政府向欧美大银行施压，要求其削减奖金。
高端猎头公司翰德（Hudson）的史东（Pernille Storm）说：“那些资产雄厚的投资公司、以及未遭遇严重赎回风潮的对冲基金，纷纷从大型银行挖走‘摇钱树’。”
新加坡最大对冲基金Artradis本月表示，从苏格兰皇家银行挖到一知名交易员，并招来一位瑞士信贷驻纽约公司高管。而投资顾问公司富士－毕特克尔顿（Fox-Pitt Kelton）最近从美林、汇丰等银行招募到五人专攻亚洲业务。
在伦敦，瑞银上月有两名资深欧洲投资银行家跳槽到Close Brothers，一名至Lazard，至少有三名能源领域银行家跳槽到Lexicon Partners。
在美国，随着雷曼崩溃、贝尔斯登垮台、美林被收购，跳槽风更猛烈。
致力于全球扩张
本月早些时候，投行Moelis称它请到前瑞银信贷固定收益部门全球主管拉杨（Chris Ryan），担任其在纽约的董事经理。新型投行目前致力于在全球扩张，比如本周美国长于企业并购业务的投行Evercore Partners，宣布与中国中信证券建立了战略合作伙伴关系。 富士－毕特克尔顿股权部门主管赫斯特（Thomas Hester）告诉路透社：“现在新型投行可以请到顶级人才，而在2005年至去年中期市场繁荣期间，这几乎是想都不敢想的。”
赫斯特本人原来是霸菱旗下销售主管，他是富士－毕特克尔顿新近招聘的人才之一。
许多新型投行在当前危机中表现强韧，吸引到热衷于独立投资意见的客户，并且它们多数未大幅举债投资于信贷衍生产品，因此未像许多欧美大银行那样遭遇重创。
全球有许多对冲基金在金融危机中崩溃，预计今年该行业将缩水至2005年水平，但盈利良好的业者仍充满吸引力。
多数对冲基金的运行模式是，不管公司运营状况如何，员工可以获得自己管理资产总额的2％。如果基金盈利，高于投资回报的下限，则员工还可以取得获利的20％。
奥巴马希望接受政府注资的企业高管年薪不超过50万美元，但在经营状况良好的对冲基金，高管年收入仍可达到数百万美元。
翰德的史东指出，如果银行整体情况不好，或大幅减记资产，那么高管可能根本拿不到奖金，因此他们当然会选择能够给他们带来最佳薪酬待遇的新东家。
Fed計劃大舉買進公債 結果眾說紛紜
鉅亨網編譯郭照青．綜合華盛頓外電2009 / 03 / 20 星期五 03:03 聯邦準備理事會(Fed)周三決議買進長期公債3000億美元，引發了市場熱烈討論。分析師說，此舉可能導致貨幣危機，也可能讓經濟擺脫衰退。 經濟在嚴重衰退前，便已深感擔憂的分析師PeterSchiff說：「這就如我們的車子正開往懸崖，Fed卻猛踩油門，」
DMJ Advisors公司分析師David Jones則對柏南克的決議表示喝采，將之視為經濟的轉捩點。
高頻經濟公司分析師Ian Shepherdson則說，Fed的計劃，基本上是印鈔票，增加信用供給。Fed是要投資人退出公債，轉往較具風險的資產，但投資人可能裹足不前。
Shepherdson說：「這是摸索的一步。我們不了解這項行動的結果會是如何，因為沒有前例可供借鑑。」
Schiff相信，此一行動將導致美元大幅貶值，亦是他久已預期的結果。他說，柏南克發出了明顯的賣出訊號，要投資人賣出公債予Fed。看來投資人可能爭相出場。這會是一項貨幣危機。
許多分析師相信，柏南克採取了前所未有的行動，是因為國會與歐巴馬政府目前似乎癱了，民眾對付給AIG員工紅利的憤怒，日益高漲。
過去一個月，柏南克幾度說道，除非金融業願意提供貸款，否則經濟無法復甦。
有分析師對此一行動，態度較為務實，他們說如果有效，一切就值得。
但許多分析師並不認為這項行動會有效。
DMJ Advisors公司分析師David Jones則對柏南克的決議表示喝采，將之視為經濟的轉捩點。
高頻經濟公司分析師Ian Shepherdson則說，Fed的計劃，基本上是印鈔票，增加信用供給。Fed是要投資人退出公債，轉往較具風險的資產，但投資人可能裹足不前。
Shepherdson說：「這是摸索的一步。我們不了解這項行動的結果會是如何，因為沒有前例可供借鑑。」
Schiff相信，此一行動將導致美元大幅貶值，亦是他久已預期的結果。他說，柏南克發出了明顯的賣出訊號，要投資人賣出公債予Fed。看來投資人可能爭相出場。這會是一項貨幣危機。
許多分析師相信，柏南克採取了前所未有的行動，是因為國會與歐巴馬政府目前似乎癱了，民眾對付給AIG員工紅利的憤怒，日益高漲。
過去一個月，柏南克幾度說道，除非金融業願意提供貸款，否則經濟無法復甦。
有分析師對此一行動，態度較為務實，他們說如果有效，一切就值得。
但許多分析師並不認為這項行動會有效。
匯海觀潮－美元續貶 商品貨幣強勢 台幣看升行情短暫
鉅亨網邱勤美．綜合報導2009 / 03 / 20 星期五 08:45
美國購買公債消息令美元近日持續走跌。商品貨幣如加元、紐元、澳元幣值兌美元則反彈或創新高。歐元亦仍走強。但有預期指出，投資者之後還是會再買進全球通用的儲備貨幣－美元。台幣昨日隨韓元開盤狂升逾 2角，預計今日升幅不大，有交易商認為短期內央行會再降息。 今日韓元兌美元開盤大約維持在昨日收盤 1396-97價位，台幣昨日收盤則升至33.924。日元兌美元昨夜在紐約匯市一度升至93，而後回落至94.52區間。
值得一提的是，星元昨日貶值 0.42%。高盛分析師認為，新加坡今年景氣衰退超乎預期，星元近 3個月兌美元幣值將可能下跌7.5%。
就台幣而言，昨日央行阻升動作不大，但有交易商預期央行在下周四可能宣布降息，以便在市場增加台幣資金。此外，摩根士坦利昨日亦發布報告，指出台幣年底仍會貶回35元區間。
由於歐元強勢將會重創歐洲出口商，有報導指出，歐洲央行可能考慮再度降息，這是因美國採取非典型振興景氣措施所施加的壓力所致。昨日歐盟已決議擴大融資，追加 500億歐元予中、東歐面臨金融危機惡化的國家。
美國購買公債消息令美元近日持續走跌。商品貨幣如加元、紐元、澳元幣值兌美元則反彈或創新高。歐元亦仍走強。但有預期指出，投資者之後還是會再買進全球通用的儲備貨幣－美元。台幣昨日隨韓元開盤狂升逾 2角，預計今日升幅不大，有交易商認為短期內央行會再降息。 今日韓元兌美元開盤大約維持在昨日收盤 1396-97價位，台幣昨日收盤則升至33.924。日元兌美元昨夜在紐約匯市一度升至93，而後回落至94.52區間。
值得一提的是，星元昨日貶值 0.42%。高盛分析師認為，新加坡今年景氣衰退超乎預期，星元近 3個月兌美元幣值將可能下跌7.5%。
就台幣而言，昨日央行阻升動作不大，但有交易商預期央行在下周四可能宣布降息，以便在市場增加台幣資金。此外，摩根士坦利昨日亦發布報告，指出台幣年底仍會貶回35元區間。
由於歐元強勢將會重創歐洲出口商，有報導指出，歐洲央行可能考慮再度降息，這是因美國採取非典型振興景氣措施所施加的壓力所致。昨日歐盟已決議擴大融資，追加 500億歐元予中、東歐面臨金融危機惡化的國家。
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Credit squeeze as banks tighten home loan criteria
GETTING a mortgage has become a far trickier proposition these days with banks tightening up loan criteria, with some owners being asked to stump up more cash when values fall.
Loans of 80 or even 90 per cent of a property’s value are still possible, especially if the buyer intends to live in the home, but investors on their second or third property are finding it tougher.
The banks’ moves come amid a real estate market hit hard by the economic crisis. Prices have fallen and are continuing to fall, forcing lenders to aggressively re-assess their loan criteria.
Once common, loans of 80 per cent are less so these days. Maybank, for instance, is granting loans of up to 70 per cent of valuation prices for its latest home loan fixed rate package.
Ms Ally Yang, a chief mortgage consultant at www.homeloan.com.sg, told The Straits Times: ‘It is very difficult to get 90 per cent financing nowadays. The banks need to see all the savings the customers have, to see if they are sufficient for the 10 per cent down payment and 24 months of instalment payments.’
Unlike Singaporean owner-occupiers, most investors as well as non-taxpayers will be able to get only up to 70 per cent financing, compared with 80 per cent last year, said Ms Yang.
Banks are becoming more careful on the eligibility condition and are doing more checks even as they compete for the good customers, she said.
It is even harder for investors, who have to pay a higher interest rate on loans than an owner-occupier - perhaps an extra loading of 0.25 per cent on the standard package, she added.
The squeeze is also forcing some buyers of new properties to think hard about their purchases, with experts warning them against holding off too long on taking loans in case prices fall.
Some owners are already having to shell out cash to make up the shortfall between their purchase prices and the valuation now. Take a home that you agreed to buy for $1 million, with a 20 per cent deposit and the assumption of obtaining a loan for $800,000.
If the valuation falls to $900,000, the 80 per cent portion is now $720,000. So you need to chip in $80,000, in addition to your $200,000 deposit, to make up the $1 million purchase price.
It is standard practice for banks to engage independent valuers to determine the market value of properties.
However, most new launches do not have this problem. Frasers Centrepoint’s Caspian in Jurong, for instance, sold 517 units out of 600 launched units last month - quite a feat these days.
‘In today’s market, developers will not want to launch at a price that cannot be matched by the banks,’ said PropNex chief executive Mohamed Ismail.
Most developers will check with valuers to see if their prices can be supported before they launch their projects, said DTZ executive director Ong Choon Fah.
‘For most new launches, particularly projects aimed at upgraders, banks would be able to match their selling prices,’ agreed Knight Frank’s executive director of residential, Mr Peter Ow.
More developers are linking with banks to offer the interest absorption scheme. This lets buyers defer the bulk of the price until completion, provided he takes a loan at the point of sale. First-time buyer Brandon Goh took it up and got 80 per cent financing for his $693,000 unit at Caspian last month.
Mr Ow, who is marketing Double Bay Residences in Simei, said buyers in the project can even get up to 90 per cent financing from DBS.
HSBC clients can get loans of up to 90 per cent valuation if ‘their financial profile…meets the bank’s criteria’, said its head of personal financial services, Mr Sebastian Arcuri.
Given that the market may soften further, experts say buyers of newly launched properties should commit to a home loan now, rather than later.
Said Mr Ismail: ‘It is in the interest of the buyer to lock in the value of their property as soon as possible. Generally, the value at new launches will be matched by the banks, but not necessarily down the road.’
Source : Straits Times - 19 Mar 2009
Loans of 80 or even 90 per cent of a property’s value are still possible, especially if the buyer intends to live in the home, but investors on their second or third property are finding it tougher.
The banks’ moves come amid a real estate market hit hard by the economic crisis. Prices have fallen and are continuing to fall, forcing lenders to aggressively re-assess their loan criteria.
Once common, loans of 80 per cent are less so these days. Maybank, for instance, is granting loans of up to 70 per cent of valuation prices for its latest home loan fixed rate package.
Ms Ally Yang, a chief mortgage consultant at www.homeloan.com.sg, told The Straits Times: ‘It is very difficult to get 90 per cent financing nowadays. The banks need to see all the savings the customers have, to see if they are sufficient for the 10 per cent down payment and 24 months of instalment payments.’
Unlike Singaporean owner-occupiers, most investors as well as non-taxpayers will be able to get only up to 70 per cent financing, compared with 80 per cent last year, said Ms Yang.
Banks are becoming more careful on the eligibility condition and are doing more checks even as they compete for the good customers, she said.
It is even harder for investors, who have to pay a higher interest rate on loans than an owner-occupier - perhaps an extra loading of 0.25 per cent on the standard package, she added.
The squeeze is also forcing some buyers of new properties to think hard about their purchases, with experts warning them against holding off too long on taking loans in case prices fall.
Some owners are already having to shell out cash to make up the shortfall between their purchase prices and the valuation now. Take a home that you agreed to buy for $1 million, with a 20 per cent deposit and the assumption of obtaining a loan for $800,000.
If the valuation falls to $900,000, the 80 per cent portion is now $720,000. So you need to chip in $80,000, in addition to your $200,000 deposit, to make up the $1 million purchase price.
It is standard practice for banks to engage independent valuers to determine the market value of properties.
However, most new launches do not have this problem. Frasers Centrepoint’s Caspian in Jurong, for instance, sold 517 units out of 600 launched units last month - quite a feat these days.
‘In today’s market, developers will not want to launch at a price that cannot be matched by the banks,’ said PropNex chief executive Mohamed Ismail.
Most developers will check with valuers to see if their prices can be supported before they launch their projects, said DTZ executive director Ong Choon Fah.
‘For most new launches, particularly projects aimed at upgraders, banks would be able to match their selling prices,’ agreed Knight Frank’s executive director of residential, Mr Peter Ow.
More developers are linking with banks to offer the interest absorption scheme. This lets buyers defer the bulk of the price until completion, provided he takes a loan at the point of sale. First-time buyer Brandon Goh took it up and got 80 per cent financing for his $693,000 unit at Caspian last month.
Mr Ow, who is marketing Double Bay Residences in Simei, said buyers in the project can even get up to 90 per cent financing from DBS.
HSBC clients can get loans of up to 90 per cent valuation if ‘their financial profile…meets the bank’s criteria’, said its head of personal financial services, Mr Sebastian Arcuri.
Given that the market may soften further, experts say buyers of newly launched properties should commit to a home loan now, rather than later.
Said Mr Ismail: ‘It is in the interest of the buyer to lock in the value of their property as soon as possible. Generally, the value at new launches will be matched by the banks, but not necessarily down the road.’
Source : Straits Times - 19 Mar 2009
Some bleed from subsales but most come out ahead
Posted by luxuryasiahome on March 19, 2009
In a tough property year, an overwhelming 95 per cent of those who sold private apartments and condos in the subsale market last year had managed to turn a profit.
But the number of subsales that chalked up losses more than doubled from 24 in first-half last year to 52 in H2, reflecting the deteriorating market conditions, especially in the fourth quarter.
For those who took a loss, the average loss per unit also rose, from about $138,000 or 7 per cent in H1 2008 to $188,000 or 12 per cent in H2 2008.
But there were happy stories. One owner at The Sail, for instance, chalked up a gain of some $6.7 million after having held on to the property for about three years.
Savills Singapore’s analysis of caveats showed that the number of loss cases rose as 2008 rolled along, from six in Q1, increasing to 18 in Q2, and stabilising somewhat at 20 in Q3, before jumping to 32 in Q4.
‘There were more owners cutting losses in the subsale market in H2 2008, especially in Q4, following the Lehman fallout and the global meltdown. Sales trickled and more people sold at losses,’ said Savills director (investment) Steven Ming.
And while there was an increase in the number who suffered losses on their subsale deals, the number of subsales that produced profits fell 16.8 per cent from 757 in H1 to 630 in H2. The average subsale gain per unit shrank steadily through the year, sliding from $425,000 or 37 per cent in H1 to $288,000 or 28 per cent in H2.
On the whole, the finding was that it is more rewarding to hold one’s property for a longer period. On average, the biggest gains of $785,000 per unit were pocketed by those who bought in 2004 and sold in H2 last year, followed by those who had picked up their properties in 2005 and divested them in H1 last year, collecting an average gain of nearly $666,000.
The largest average loss of $210,000 was incurred by those who had bought in 2006 and sold in H1 2008.
Around 90 per cent of the 76 investors who suffered a loss in the subsale market for the whole of last year had bought their units in 2007 during the market peak.
Knight Frank executive director (residential) Peter Ow notes that usually an investor would cut losses in the subsale market when it is time to pay the developer. ‘An investor exposed to a few properties bought on deferred payment scheme (DPS) may want to cut losses on the first one or two to improve his cashflow so when it is time to pay up for the third one, he can afford it,’ he said.
Mr Ming points out that in addition to multiple property owners who may find it difficult to get sufficient bank loans to complete their acquisitions, those taking a hit in the subsale market may include ’savvy investors seeking to diversify their investments and allocating a part of the exposure to other undervalued asset classes’.
Savills calculated profit or loss as the difference between sale and purchase prices and did not take into account agent fees and other expenses. The analysis was based on a total 1,761 subsale deals of non-landed private homes captured in the URA Realis system as of March 9, 2009. Of these, it could trace and match previous caveat records for 1,463 units. Savills then compared the latest subsale price of each unit with the earlier price paid by the seller to work out the profit or loss.
Subsales, often seen as a gauge of speculative activity, are secondary market deals in projects that have yet to receive their Certificates of Statutory Completion. This may be anywhere from three to 12 months after the project receives Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP).
Savills’s analysis also showed that the proportion of subsales done below $1 million per unit rose from 38.3 per cent in H1 last year to 45.9 per cent in H2, as affordability became important.
Projects with the highest number of subsale transactions for 2008 were The Sail @ Marina Bay (78 units), Citylights (77 subsales), Varsity Park Condo (59 units), City Square Residences (57 units), The Sea View (52 units), The Esta (49 units) and Park Infinia at Wee Nam (48 units).
Some of these projects also saw the most number of subsale losses for the whole of 2008, for instance City Square Residences (six units), Citylights (four units) and The Sail (four units). In addition, The Cosmopolitan and Watermark Robertson Quay each had four subsale loss cases last year.
In H1 2008, Citylights saw the most subsales, at 60. In H2, The Sail was the top subsale project, with 40 units changing hands.
‘Anecdotally, there appears to be a higher number of subsales that take place for projects that were approaching TOP. For example, the 1,761 subsale transactions in 2008 included 52 projects that received TOP in the same year,’ Mr Ming said. Projects that obtained TOP in 2008 included The Sail, part of City Square Residences, The Sea View and The Cosmopolitan. Icon, City Lights and The Calrose were among the projects that received TOP in 2007.
Mr Ming said that with 10,000 homes expected to get TOP this year, ‘we expect subsale transactions to remain active and the sell pressure will keep up this year, unless debt markets open up and financing for investors eases’.
Source : Business Times - 19 Mar 2009
In a tough property year, an overwhelming 95 per cent of those who sold private apartments and condos in the subsale market last year had managed to turn a profit.
But the number of subsales that chalked up losses more than doubled from 24 in first-half last year to 52 in H2, reflecting the deteriorating market conditions, especially in the fourth quarter.
For those who took a loss, the average loss per unit also rose, from about $138,000 or 7 per cent in H1 2008 to $188,000 or 12 per cent in H2 2008.
But there were happy stories. One owner at The Sail, for instance, chalked up a gain of some $6.7 million after having held on to the property for about three years.
Savills Singapore’s analysis of caveats showed that the number of loss cases rose as 2008 rolled along, from six in Q1, increasing to 18 in Q2, and stabilising somewhat at 20 in Q3, before jumping to 32 in Q4.
‘There were more owners cutting losses in the subsale market in H2 2008, especially in Q4, following the Lehman fallout and the global meltdown. Sales trickled and more people sold at losses,’ said Savills director (investment) Steven Ming.
And while there was an increase in the number who suffered losses on their subsale deals, the number of subsales that produced profits fell 16.8 per cent from 757 in H1 to 630 in H2. The average subsale gain per unit shrank steadily through the year, sliding from $425,000 or 37 per cent in H1 to $288,000 or 28 per cent in H2.
On the whole, the finding was that it is more rewarding to hold one’s property for a longer period. On average, the biggest gains of $785,000 per unit were pocketed by those who bought in 2004 and sold in H2 last year, followed by those who had picked up their properties in 2005 and divested them in H1 last year, collecting an average gain of nearly $666,000.
The largest average loss of $210,000 was incurred by those who had bought in 2006 and sold in H1 2008.
Around 90 per cent of the 76 investors who suffered a loss in the subsale market for the whole of last year had bought their units in 2007 during the market peak.
Knight Frank executive director (residential) Peter Ow notes that usually an investor would cut losses in the subsale market when it is time to pay the developer. ‘An investor exposed to a few properties bought on deferred payment scheme (DPS) may want to cut losses on the first one or two to improve his cashflow so when it is time to pay up for the third one, he can afford it,’ he said.
Mr Ming points out that in addition to multiple property owners who may find it difficult to get sufficient bank loans to complete their acquisitions, those taking a hit in the subsale market may include ’savvy investors seeking to diversify their investments and allocating a part of the exposure to other undervalued asset classes’.
Savills calculated profit or loss as the difference between sale and purchase prices and did not take into account agent fees and other expenses. The analysis was based on a total 1,761 subsale deals of non-landed private homes captured in the URA Realis system as of March 9, 2009. Of these, it could trace and match previous caveat records for 1,463 units. Savills then compared the latest subsale price of each unit with the earlier price paid by the seller to work out the profit or loss.
Subsales, often seen as a gauge of speculative activity, are secondary market deals in projects that have yet to receive their Certificates of Statutory Completion. This may be anywhere from three to 12 months after the project receives Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP).
Savills’s analysis also showed that the proportion of subsales done below $1 million per unit rose from 38.3 per cent in H1 last year to 45.9 per cent in H2, as affordability became important.
Projects with the highest number of subsale transactions for 2008 were The Sail @ Marina Bay (78 units), Citylights (77 subsales), Varsity Park Condo (59 units), City Square Residences (57 units), The Sea View (52 units), The Esta (49 units) and Park Infinia at Wee Nam (48 units).
Some of these projects also saw the most number of subsale losses for the whole of 2008, for instance City Square Residences (six units), Citylights (four units) and The Sail (four units). In addition, The Cosmopolitan and Watermark Robertson Quay each had four subsale loss cases last year.
In H1 2008, Citylights saw the most subsales, at 60. In H2, The Sail was the top subsale project, with 40 units changing hands.
‘Anecdotally, there appears to be a higher number of subsales that take place for projects that were approaching TOP. For example, the 1,761 subsale transactions in 2008 included 52 projects that received TOP in the same year,’ Mr Ming said. Projects that obtained TOP in 2008 included The Sail, part of City Square Residences, The Sea View and The Cosmopolitan. Icon, City Lights and The Calrose were among the projects that received TOP in 2007.
Mr Ming said that with 10,000 homes expected to get TOP this year, ‘we expect subsale transactions to remain active and the sell pressure will keep up this year, unless debt markets open up and financing for investors eases’.
Source : Business Times - 19 Mar 2009
The Sail generates top gains in subsale deals
Posted by luxuryasiahome on March 19, 2009
TRANSACTIONS at The Sail @ Marina Bay last year topped the subsales deals that generated the highest gains, both in absolute as well as in percentage terms, a caveats analysis by Savills Singapore shows.
In absolute dollar terms, the biggest gain of $6.66 million was achieved for a unit above the 60th floor of the 99-year leasehold project. It was bought for $8.8 million or $1,508 psf in November 2005 from the project’s developer, and sold in the subsale market for $15.5 million or $2,650 psf in August last year.
The top percentage gain of 178 per cent was generated by a 49th floor unit at The Sail that was sold for $1.42 million or $2,400 psf in the subsale market in May last year. The seller had picked up the unit for $510,400 or $862 psf from the developer (a joint venture between City Developments and AIG) in December 2004.
Two other units at The Sail also yielded subsale profits of 176 per cent and 175 per cent; the sellers had bought their units from the developer.
In all, there were 74 instances of gains generated from subsale transactions at The Sail in 2008. Market watchers noted that this was because the project’s launch in two phases in 2004 and 2005 was ‘perfectly timed’ before residential property prices shot up in 2006 onwards.
As for subsale deals that produced losses last year, the biggest loss in absolute quantum, $1.03 million, was suffered for a unit around the 20th floor at Scotts Square. It was sold in November last year for $3.7 million or $3,050 psf; the seller had bought it up in the primary market in August 2007 for nearly $4.8 million or $3,890 psf.
The largest percentage loss (36 per cent) was incurred by the owner of a 26th floor unit at Tribeca on Kim Seng Road who had paid the developer $885,800 or $1,553 psf in February 2007 and sold his unit at $570,000 or $999 psf in December last year.
Looking ahead, Savills Singapore director Steven Ming said: ‘It’s reasonable to expect that subsale losses may increase this year, unless macro and global economic problems are ironed out and financing eases,’ he added.
Knight Frank executive director (residential) Peter Ow notes that what would usually make an investor cut losses in the subsale market is when it is time to pay up the developer. ‘An investor exposed to a few properties he has bought on deferred payment scheme may want to cut losses on the first one or two to improve his cashflow, so that when it is time to pay up for the third one, he can afford it,’ he added.
In the event that a buyer has difficulty getting a bank loan and footing the bill for a chunk of the purchase price to the developer when the project receives Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP), some developers may be prepared to repudiate the sale and purchase agreement and forfeit the 20 per cent initial payment collected from the buyer and proceed to resell the unit.
But other developers may sue the buyers and force them to complete the sale and purchase agreement at the contracted price. ‘Most buyers wouldn’t want to take the risk of defaulting because they don’t know the position of the developer and risk being sued and even bankrupted,’ Mr Ow said.
For projects completing in 2011/2012, most investors will tend to hold their units as there is a possibility of a property market recovery, he predicts. ‘But for projects receiving TOP, say, this year, investors will have to weigh risks of whether they have the financial means to pay up. If not, it may be better to cut loss,’ Mr Ow said.
Mr Ow estimates that most investors would be prepared to cut a loss of up to 20 per cent on their purchase price (assuming they have already paid an initial 20 per cent to the developer) since they will then not have to take a further hit.
However, if they subsell the property at, say, 70 per cent of their purchase price, they would have to fork out a further 10 per cent to the developer before the developer agrees to transfer the title to the new buyer.
Source : Business Times - 19 Mar 2009
TRANSACTIONS at The Sail @ Marina Bay last year topped the subsales deals that generated the highest gains, both in absolute as well as in percentage terms, a caveats analysis by Savills Singapore shows.
In absolute dollar terms, the biggest gain of $6.66 million was achieved for a unit above the 60th floor of the 99-year leasehold project. It was bought for $8.8 million or $1,508 psf in November 2005 from the project’s developer, and sold in the subsale market for $15.5 million or $2,650 psf in August last year.
The top percentage gain of 178 per cent was generated by a 49th floor unit at The Sail that was sold for $1.42 million or $2,400 psf in the subsale market in May last year. The seller had picked up the unit for $510,400 or $862 psf from the developer (a joint venture between City Developments and AIG) in December 2004.
Two other units at The Sail also yielded subsale profits of 176 per cent and 175 per cent; the sellers had bought their units from the developer.
In all, there were 74 instances of gains generated from subsale transactions at The Sail in 2008. Market watchers noted that this was because the project’s launch in two phases in 2004 and 2005 was ‘perfectly timed’ before residential property prices shot up in 2006 onwards.
As for subsale deals that produced losses last year, the biggest loss in absolute quantum, $1.03 million, was suffered for a unit around the 20th floor at Scotts Square. It was sold in November last year for $3.7 million or $3,050 psf; the seller had bought it up in the primary market in August 2007 for nearly $4.8 million or $3,890 psf.
The largest percentage loss (36 per cent) was incurred by the owner of a 26th floor unit at Tribeca on Kim Seng Road who had paid the developer $885,800 or $1,553 psf in February 2007 and sold his unit at $570,000 or $999 psf in December last year.
Looking ahead, Savills Singapore director Steven Ming said: ‘It’s reasonable to expect that subsale losses may increase this year, unless macro and global economic problems are ironed out and financing eases,’ he added.
Knight Frank executive director (residential) Peter Ow notes that what would usually make an investor cut losses in the subsale market is when it is time to pay up the developer. ‘An investor exposed to a few properties he has bought on deferred payment scheme may want to cut losses on the first one or two to improve his cashflow, so that when it is time to pay up for the third one, he can afford it,’ he added.
In the event that a buyer has difficulty getting a bank loan and footing the bill for a chunk of the purchase price to the developer when the project receives Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP), some developers may be prepared to repudiate the sale and purchase agreement and forfeit the 20 per cent initial payment collected from the buyer and proceed to resell the unit.
But other developers may sue the buyers and force them to complete the sale and purchase agreement at the contracted price. ‘Most buyers wouldn’t want to take the risk of defaulting because they don’t know the position of the developer and risk being sued and even bankrupted,’ Mr Ow said.
For projects completing in 2011/2012, most investors will tend to hold their units as there is a possibility of a property market recovery, he predicts. ‘But for projects receiving TOP, say, this year, investors will have to weigh risks of whether they have the financial means to pay up. If not, it may be better to cut loss,’ Mr Ow said.
Mr Ow estimates that most investors would be prepared to cut a loss of up to 20 per cent on their purchase price (assuming they have already paid an initial 20 per cent to the developer) since they will then not have to take a further hit.
However, if they subsell the property at, say, 70 per cent of their purchase price, they would have to fork out a further 10 per cent to the developer before the developer agrees to transfer the title to the new buyer.
Source : Business Times - 19 Mar 2009
The Dow's Bearing — 6,000 and Under
Monday, 2 Mar 2009
Posted By: Daryl Guppy
February was a chilly month for U.S. equities. And March is looking even worse. It looks like a recession is the only thing roaring this month.
On Monday, U.S. stocks plunged with the major indexes closing at their lowest levels in more than a decade as more government intervention in the financial sector was interpreted as an ominous sign for shareholders of Citigroup.
CLICK HERE TO SEE FULL CHART
General Electric, a major manufacturer and lender, continued its decline as the stock, once a stalwart for even the most conservative of portfolios, sold off to levels associated with distressed "fallen angels."
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 299.64 points, or 4.24% percent, to 6763.29, its lowest close since April 25, 1997, and the first close below 7,000 since May 1, 1997. We feel this warrants another look at the DJIA chart.
The most dangerous chart pattern in a bear market is the down sloping triangle triangle. This pattern is seen in the Dow Jones Index and it sets a downside target near 5,600. The rapid fall below 7,000 confirms this target objective.
This chart pattern includes a well defined support level near 7,800. Over the last five months the rally rebounds from support near 7,800 have developed a pattern of declining highs. The failure of the early 2009 January rally near 9,000 established a second calculation point for a new down sloping trend line. The first calculation point for the trend line was set by the rally peak near 9,600 in 2008 November.
A new downtrend line is drawn and this creates a down sloping triangle. In a bear market the strength of the pattern is increased. The first feature to measure with this pattern is the height of the triangle. The four day triangle base starts on 2008, October 7, with the drop from near 10,000 to 7,800. The triangle height is around 2,200 points.
Chart pattern analysis provides the most reliable analysis method in this type of market situation. Technical oscillators which measure sentiment in the market are stuck on extreme readings and provide little guidance about trend continuation.
Using chart pattern analysis, the downside target for the Dow Jones Index is near 5,600. This target is verified against historical support levels for the Dow. Historically there is a support level near 7,500 but this has been decisively broken.
The long term historical support level is a narrow trading band between 5,500 and 5,600. In a bear market it is the bottom of the trading band that is tested for support.
This combination of factors suggests there is a high probability the market will quickly fall towards support between 5,500 and 5,600. This is a fall of more than 50 percent from the peak of the Index in 2007, October at 14,198. This degree of fall is similar to the degree of fall in 1929 when the America market collapsed and developed the world depression.
The end of this triangle pattern develops near the end of 2009, April. There is a high probability the America market will develop a continuation of the downtrend with a slow move towards support near 5,600. The key feature will be the nature of any consolidation pattern that develops near 5,500 to 5,600.
Posted By: Daryl Guppy
February was a chilly month for U.S. equities. And March is looking even worse. It looks like a recession is the only thing roaring this month.
On Monday, U.S. stocks plunged with the major indexes closing at their lowest levels in more than a decade as more government intervention in the financial sector was interpreted as an ominous sign for shareholders of Citigroup.
CLICK HERE TO SEE FULL CHART
General Electric, a major manufacturer and lender, continued its decline as the stock, once a stalwart for even the most conservative of portfolios, sold off to levels associated with distressed "fallen angels."
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 299.64 points, or 4.24% percent, to 6763.29, its lowest close since April 25, 1997, and the first close below 7,000 since May 1, 1997. We feel this warrants another look at the DJIA chart.
The most dangerous chart pattern in a bear market is the down sloping triangle triangle. This pattern is seen in the Dow Jones Index and it sets a downside target near 5,600. The rapid fall below 7,000 confirms this target objective.
This chart pattern includes a well defined support level near 7,800. Over the last five months the rally rebounds from support near 7,800 have developed a pattern of declining highs. The failure of the early 2009 January rally near 9,000 established a second calculation point for a new down sloping trend line. The first calculation point for the trend line was set by the rally peak near 9,600 in 2008 November.
A new downtrend line is drawn and this creates a down sloping triangle. In a bear market the strength of the pattern is increased. The first feature to measure with this pattern is the height of the triangle. The four day triangle base starts on 2008, October 7, with the drop from near 10,000 to 7,800. The triangle height is around 2,200 points.
Chart pattern analysis provides the most reliable analysis method in this type of market situation. Technical oscillators which measure sentiment in the market are stuck on extreme readings and provide little guidance about trend continuation.
Using chart pattern analysis, the downside target for the Dow Jones Index is near 5,600. This target is verified against historical support levels for the Dow. Historically there is a support level near 7,500 but this has been decisively broken.
The long term historical support level is a narrow trading band between 5,500 and 5,600. In a bear market it is the bottom of the trading band that is tested for support.
This combination of factors suggests there is a high probability the market will quickly fall towards support between 5,500 and 5,600. This is a fall of more than 50 percent from the peak of the Index in 2007, October at 14,198. This degree of fall is similar to the degree of fall in 1929 when the America market collapsed and developed the world depression.
The end of this triangle pattern develops near the end of 2009, April. There is a high probability the America market will develop a continuation of the downtrend with a slow move towards support near 5,600. The key feature will be the nature of any consolidation pattern that develops near 5,500 to 5,600.
中国股市依然机会多多
查看评论www.cnfol.com 2008年11月24日 08:21 深圳商报
本报记者日前从深圳金融博览会证券投资论坛了解到，目前市场一些专家级高手对A股后市看法乐观。与多个国家的股市相比较，中国A股市场依然机会多多。 李新京：目前A股正震荡筑底 新加坡NEXTVIEW投资公司总裁李新京最近到美国、日本、韩国、越南、印度了解当地股市，并参与了这些市场的证券交易，他在证券投资论坛向与会者感叹：还是中国股市机会更多。他说，目前应该是震荡筑底阶段，机会很多。熊市中的反弹急涨缓跌，这对短线炒家十分有利。他透露，目前境外很多投资者都想进入中国市场，这从另一方面说明了A股的吸引力。 李新京原是深圳的证券分析师，被新加坡“挖”走后，仍一直参加国内证券投资。他说自己经过近20年的观察，发现中国股市以120日均线为基准平均线。只有当这条线向上翘起，才是买股票做中线投资的好机会。根据李新京的理论，上证指数今年年内突破2500点的机会极小，而且，美国金融危机的危害程度可能超过很多人的预期，另外，大小非问题也制约着中国股市长期的发展，现在到明年春节前不可能有大行情。 李新京说，现在即便大盘站上2300点也是弱市。而如果到明年2月前不跌破1450点，MACD指标不出现死叉，这个市场就没有走坏。如果明年2月前能维持在2000点，120日均线走平后开始向上，市场就会比较强，后市将可以看好。 李新京主张在目前市况下进行被动投资，根据均线指标决定买卖行为。不管阻力、支撑在哪里，只要均线指标MACD、RSI出现金叉就买入，出现向下趋势就卖出。他说自己考察了种种技术分析方法，还是认为均线指标最有效。因为市场上多数人都依靠均线指标进行操作，因此均线指标代表了市场上多数人的看法，一旦指标向好，投资者、投机者就信心倍增蜂拥而入，一旦向坏就悲观恐惧争相出逃，因此股价、指数的波动都非常符合规律。 李新京还表示，从现在到年报出来以前，投资者应担心年报地雷，一些上市公司受金融危机影响造成的亏损，会在年报中暴露出来。 顾比：A股正处圆弧底底部
澳大利亚籍技术分析师戴若·顾比认为，现在A股仍是一个困难的市场，频繁操作失败率很高。在很大程度上，市场是不可预测的，对所有投资者而言，关注自己的行为更重要。他告诫投资者永远不要用全部资金投入股市，每笔投资的失败，其亏损额不应该超过总资产的2％，这是自我保护的重要原则。 顾比参与中国股市多年，他认为比起美国、澳大利亚股市，中国股市大盘指数的圆弧底形态非常可靠，而现在正是圆弧底的底部，投资者宜顺势而为。 顾比预计，现在到年底A股都是一个筑底行情，春节后将有一波快速上涨
本报记者日前从深圳金融博览会证券投资论坛了解到，目前市场一些专家级高手对A股后市看法乐观。与多个国家的股市相比较，中国A股市场依然机会多多。 李新京：目前A股正震荡筑底 新加坡NEXTVIEW投资公司总裁李新京最近到美国、日本、韩国、越南、印度了解当地股市，并参与了这些市场的证券交易，他在证券投资论坛向与会者感叹：还是中国股市机会更多。他说，目前应该是震荡筑底阶段，机会很多。熊市中的反弹急涨缓跌，这对短线炒家十分有利。他透露，目前境外很多投资者都想进入中国市场，这从另一方面说明了A股的吸引力。 李新京原是深圳的证券分析师，被新加坡“挖”走后，仍一直参加国内证券投资。他说自己经过近20年的观察，发现中国股市以120日均线为基准平均线。只有当这条线向上翘起，才是买股票做中线投资的好机会。根据李新京的理论，上证指数今年年内突破2500点的机会极小，而且，美国金融危机的危害程度可能超过很多人的预期，另外，大小非问题也制约着中国股市长期的发展，现在到明年春节前不可能有大行情。 李新京说，现在即便大盘站上2300点也是弱市。而如果到明年2月前不跌破1450点，MACD指标不出现死叉，这个市场就没有走坏。如果明年2月前能维持在2000点，120日均线走平后开始向上，市场就会比较强，后市将可以看好。 李新京主张在目前市况下进行被动投资，根据均线指标决定买卖行为。不管阻力、支撑在哪里，只要均线指标MACD、RSI出现金叉就买入，出现向下趋势就卖出。他说自己考察了种种技术分析方法，还是认为均线指标最有效。因为市场上多数人都依靠均线指标进行操作，因此均线指标代表了市场上多数人的看法，一旦指标向好，投资者、投机者就信心倍增蜂拥而入，一旦向坏就悲观恐惧争相出逃，因此股价、指数的波动都非常符合规律。 李新京还表示，从现在到年报出来以前，投资者应担心年报地雷，一些上市公司受金融危机影响造成的亏损，会在年报中暴露出来。 顾比：A股正处圆弧底底部
澳大利亚籍技术分析师戴若·顾比认为，现在A股仍是一个困难的市场，频繁操作失败率很高。在很大程度上，市场是不可预测的，对所有投资者而言，关注自己的行为更重要。他告诫投资者永远不要用全部资金投入股市，每笔投资的失败，其亏损额不应该超过总资产的2％，这是自我保护的重要原则。 顾比参与中国股市多年，他认为比起美国、澳大利亚股市，中国股市大盘指数的圆弧底形态非常可靠，而现在正是圆弧底的底部，投资者宜顺势而为。 顾比预计，现在到年底A股都是一个筑底行情，春节后将有一波快速上涨
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Asian budget airlines launch price war
SINGAPORE (AFP) — Asian low-cost airlines are offering dirt-cheap tickets to perk up travel during the summer holidays amid the global economic downturn.
Singapore-based Tiger Airways, which flies to destinations in Southeast Asia, Australia and China, announced Tuesday it would launch summer fares starting at about 16 US dollars, including taxes.
The carrier, which is 49 percent owned by Singapore Airlines, said in a statement it would offer its "biggest ever network of seats" and was adding new destinations for its summer schedule from March 29 to October 24.
"Tiger Airways is bucking the global aviation trend," the airline said, referring to declining passenger numbers for full-service carriers worldwide.
Rosalynn Tay, managing director for Tiger Airways Singapore, said the airline would "demonstrate that we will continue to grow our business even in these difficult trading conditions."
Jetstar Asia, another Singapore-based budget airline, said it had extended until August 16 a promotion to beat the cheapest price offered by rivals.
Under the promotion, should a traveller find another published online fare cheaper than the lowest available on www.jetstar.com, the airline will beat the price by 10 percent if the customer makes an instant reservation by phone.
"The current economy makes it a tough operating environment where competition will be intense and fares will be under pressure," Jetstar Asia's commercial head Leslie Ng said in a statement.
"People are going for cheaper fares as they become more cost conscious and want to get value for money deals."
Malaysian budget airline AirAsia also has its "take me away" promotion.
Among its offers is a one-way flight from Singapore to Bangkok starting from 43 dollars, inclusive of taxes, for travel from March 23 to September 11, according to its website.
Comparatively, a return flight to Bangkok on Singapore Airlines costs 337 dollars, inclusive of taxes.
AirAsia is also offering a number of tickets starting from 26 cents for travel within Malaysia.
Indonesia's Lion Air is selling a one-way trip from Singapore to Bali for as low as 5.80 dollars for travel from June 1 to September 30, according to its website.
Thailand's Nok Air is offering one-way fares for as low as 25 cents, excluding taxes and fees, for domestic flights for those travelling from May 15 to September 30, its website showed.
Copyright © 2009 AFP. All rights reserved嘉德置地
（2009-03-18） ● 银 本栏今年元月30日论及这股票若于元月底未能在3.11元之上闭市，则其每月一杆图将出现“主要转向”讯号，这么一来，向下跌穿2.28元而迅速滑落就顺理成章了。果然，股价于元月30日仅以1.99元闭市，过后虽尝试回升，并于2月16日一度试2.35元仍无法摆脱下跌厄运。3月3日股价下试1.70元且以1.85元闭市，遂成“一日转向”讯号，截至16日已升至2.16元。估计短期回扯或将填补介于2.00元至1.96元间的缺口，过后将续升，因为一个技术回弹的时刻已经到来了。而本月底若能在1.98元让闭市，那就顺理成章了。
Small flats, big sellers
Posted by luxuryasiahome on March 15, 2009
What do you call a space which can fit four hawker stalls?
In the case of a new property development called Kembangan Suites, the space is called a one-bedroom apartment.
It is all of 344 sq ft.
Crowds flocked to a preview of condominium Domus on Friday. Its smallest units are 474 sq ft. — ST PHOTO: JOSEPH NAIR FOR THE SUNDAY TIMES
But small is now big. On just the first day of a preview last week, the developer sold out 60 units of mostly one- and two-bedders ranging in size from 344 sq ft to 581 sq ft.
The smallest units were going for about $300,000.
Industry sources said demand is coming from local and foreign singles, young couples as well as cost-conscious buyers and investors.
Before that, Alexis @ Alexandra sold all its 293 units, including 114 one-bedders (366 sq ft to 527 sq ft), with prices from $450,000.
Other new launches like Mount Sophia Suites in Sophia Road, Nova 88 in Bhamo Road and Zenith in Zion Road are offering studio apartments or one-bedders from 366 sq ft to 484 sq ft.
Crowds flocked to a preview on Friday of new condominium Domus in Irrawaddy Road. The smallest units there - one-bedders at 474 sq ft each - were going for more than $400,000.
Its developer, Lakeview Investments, said those were the most popular and all units released in the first phase had been sold.
‘It’s the size of a hotel room,’ veteran designer Jay Ang said of the new 300-something sq ft homes.
‘You have space only to sleep and eat. There’s definitely no place to entertain,’ noted the specialist in space planning and storage space customising.
But while there are no rules on how small apartments can go, designers and architects have to make concessions for standard dimensions, like how wide a door is, how long a bed is or how deep a wardrobe is.
Developers have quickly cottoned on to this demand for small spaces. Several have rejigged or are considering tweaking their designs and making space for smaller units.
Sing Holdings’ project The Laurels in Cairnhill Road will go from its original 150 units of mostly three- and four-bedders to 290 units that include more one- and two-bedroom units.
UOL Group may also resize the units of its Green Meadows project in Upper Thomson to attract more cost-conscious buyers.
Alexis’ developer, ECPrime, had done the same before the project’s launch.
City Developments said studio apartments in centrally located projects had always been popular because of the lure of city-living.
Studio apartments comprised almost 40 per cent of the offerings at its downtown project, The Sail @ Marina Bay, which was completed last year.
Carving up space for more units is one way a developer can achieve higher dollar per square foot value, said Mr Nicholas Mak, director of research and consultancy at Knight Frank.
‘Developers manage to sell such small units because they make it affordable in absolute terms,’ he said.
But, property pundits said, when apartments continue to shrink and prices per square feet remain high, home-seekers may go back to buying HDB flats and those looking to rent may decide to go for HDB rooms instead.
The size of private one-bedroom units has halved from 10 years ago.
HDB flats have downsized too, from about 1,130 sq ft for a four-room in 1987 to 970 sq ft now.
Still, Singapore homes have not shrunk to the proportions of those in Hong Kong and Tokyo, where apartments can be as tiny as 140 sq ft.
That is not to say that all buyers are happy with the slimming effect.
Finance executive Audrey Yap, 35, who is shopping for a bachelorette pad, said: ‘I can’t afford the bigger apartments but the studio apartments are ridiculously small and claustrophobic. I think I may have to settle for a resale HDB flat.’
Source : Sunday Times - 15 Mar 2009
TOP chance to pick up condo bargains
Posted by luxuryasiahome on March 15, 2009
Buyers now have more choices as launches return to the market. There is also no lack of supply in the secondary market, where more projects - including several big ones - will obtain temporary occupation permits (TOPs) by the end of this year.
Speculators who bought units at The Sail may want to sell them now. — LIANHE ZAOBAO FILE PHOTO
The sellers of projects yet to obtain TOP are often short-term investors, and in this present climate some may offer real bargains if they have an urgent need to offload their properties, experts said.
A project’s TOP date is when those who had bought on deferred payment will have to pay for the bulk of the purchase price.
The deferred payment scheme was seen as encouraging speculation as buyers could profit by reselling their homes before the TOP date without much capital outlay. It was scrapped in late 2007.
‘Most times, those who bought on deferred payment are usually the investors,’ said Mr Colin Tan, Chesterton Suntec International’s head of research and consultancy.
Although not many bargains have surfaced, more could come, experts said. The 104 caveats lodged in the first two months of this year - for projects that have yet to obtain TOP - showed prices are coming down, but only gradually, said Mr Tan, citing Urban Redevelopment Authority data.
Of the 104 deals, 24 were for City Square Residences at $664 per sq ft (psf) to $911 psf, compared with its starting price of $560 psf in 2005. Another 20 deals were done at The Centris at between $427 psf and $639 psf, compared with its 2006 launch price of $550 psf.
Singapore bankers are reluctant to repossess properties when property prices have not fallen steeply, Mr Tan said. ‘As Singapore is still not in ‘deep recession’ - although we are moving towards it - these investors are able to rent out their properties and collect rent,’ he said. ‘So long as banks are receiving some kind of payment, they are not willing to force the issue.’
Mr Tan said he foresees a gradual decline in property prices for the next three to four months. The shrinking rental market may have a greater impact on the market thereafter, he added. ‘For those waiting for ‘bargains’, you’ll have to be patient and wait a little longer,’ he advised. ‘At the moment, while the rental market is declining, it is still some 15 to 20 per cent higher than before the run-up in the market.’
A property expert, who declined to be named, said: ‘Buyers may want to look at projects where there is a great deal of speculative element, such as Marina Bay Residences and The Sail, where many people went in blindly. Some of them may now want to let go of their units.’
So far this year, two high-floor Marina Bay Residences units were sold in January at $1,528 psf and $1,638 psf, while two units at The Coast at Sentosa Cove were sold last month at $1,250 psf and $1,500 psf.
Back in late 2006, Marina Bay Residences was sold out in three days at an average apartment price of $1,850 psf or up to more than $2,700 psf, while The Coast initially sold for $1,500 psf on average.
This year, the bigger projects that are expected to obtain TOP include The Centris in Jurong West and Casa Merah in Tanah Merah.
In the Amber Road area where many new developments were launched in the past few years, One Amber will obtain TOP by year end. It will join two recently completed big condos, The Esta and The Sea View, and a few others under construction.
In Balestier, UOL Group said it expects the 180-unit Pavilion 11 in Minbu Road to obtain TOP in the second half of the year.
The 53-unit The Centrio in Irrawaddy Road - launched in May 2007 at $1,025 psf - is also expected to do so by the end of the year.
A nearby project, the 151-unit Montebleu, launched in March 2007 at $980 psf, will obtain TOP early next year. At the same time, there are new launches in Balestier, including The Mezzo and Domus.
In the prime area, Hiap Hoe expects to obtain TOP for its 46-unit Cuscaden Royale by the end of the year or early next year.
‘TOP projects are much sought after by owner-occupiers because buyers can move in immediately into a brand-new property,’ said Ms Kellie Liew, executive director of projects at HSR property group.
Prices in quite a few of these projects, such as Southbank, have dropped a fair bit, she said.
Southbank in North Bridge Road will obtain TOP next year. So will The Riverine by the Park nearby.
Savills Residential director Phylicia Ang said the secondary market will have bargains but they may not be easy to spot. Those with little time to spare may find new launches a better bet, she said.
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
海皇轮船 2/2/07 13/3/09
（2009-03-17） ● 银 本栏于去年11月11日曾论及这只股票短期内三波向上回扯，或将填补介于1.43元至1.46元间的缺口，再向下试0.77元的支撑线。当时股价为1.29元左右。可是股价竟回扯乏力反而渐渐下跌，11月21日一度下试0.93元，并于当天以“主要转向”讯号回升。12月11日股价曾升试1.37元，可惜仍然无法填补上述缺口就进入横摆走势。今年3月10日股价终于跌穿上述的0.93元，12日更下试0.85元，幸好当天以“转向”讯号闭市，估计股价将出现短暂的回扯，至于是否能升逾1.22元的阻力线将是关键了。
我国去年近1万7000人被裁 创五年新高 仅次于沙斯期间
（2009-03-17） ● 李静仪 全球经济急转直下，我国去年共有1万6880名员工被裁退或被提前终止合约，人数是五年来的新高。其中以专业人员、经理、执行人员及技师(PMET)的增幅最显著。
此外，有更多本地失业者找工作超过6个月仍没办法成功。而失业的大学毕业生，也增加了一倍以上。
人力部昨天公布了2008年劳动市场报告。
去年共造就了22万1600份新工作，增幅是8.1%。当中有6万4700个职位由本地人填补，其余15万6900个是外国人代劳。
截至去年12月，我国总就业人数达295万人，本地人占了64%，共189万4700人；外国人36%，共105万7700人。
报告显示，去年最后一季被裁及提前被解约的员工达9410个，远比第三季的3180人高。
去年全年约有1万3920名员工被公司裁退，提前被解约的则有2970人。其中被裁人数紧次于2003年沙斯来袭时的1万6400人，是过去五年来的最高纪录。
被裁退者当中，PMET占了37%（1年前的比例是31%），人数从去年第三季的950人激增到最后一季的3790个，全年共有6200名PMET员工被裁或提前解约。
值得注意的是，1998年亚洲金融危机时，被解雇的PMET人员仅占总解雇人数19%，当时受影响的主要是与生产线相关的员工。
受金融海啸冲击，我国经济从去年9月开始直线下滑，但因为去年上半年劳工市场表现强劲，还是为全年带来了8.1%的就业增长，共增加22万1600个新职位，虽然这比前年的23万4900份新工作或9.4%的增幅逊色。去年最后一季仅出现2万1300份新工作，还不到第三季5万5700份新工作的一半，而和2007年第四季的6万2500份新工作相比，更是天渊之别。 报告也显示，去年各行各业的就业情况都迅速恶化，当中以制造业最严峻。制造业在去年第四季减了7000份工作，是这领域自2003年第三季以来，首次出现缩减。
制造业所流失的工作主要是在电子产品和交通器材方面。全年来说，制造业创造了1万9500份新工作，不到前年（4万9300份）的一半。
大学毕业生失业
增加了一倍以上
服务业去年也只增加了13万6400份新工作，比前年少了6700份。只有建筑业逆流而上，所增添的新工作比前年多出2万多份，共6万4000份。
总的来说，中学教育程度以下的失业者还是占大多数，共有2万1300人（31%），他们大多在40岁以上。不过，令人关注的是，有更多大学毕业生加入失业大军，从前年底的6200人（14%）激增到去年底的1万4800人（21%），增加了一倍以上。
截至去年12月，求职超过6个月仍无法找到工作的本地人，从前年的8700人增加到去年12月的1万2900人。而职位空缺共有2万6100个，比去年9月减少将近三成。
人力部指出，随着更多雇主预计接下来半年的经商环境会进一步恶化，下来的就业市场预料也不容乐观。
此外，有更多本地失业者找工作超过6个月仍没办法成功。而失业的大学毕业生，也增加了一倍以上。
人力部昨天公布了2008年劳动市场报告。
去年共造就了22万1600份新工作，增幅是8.1%。当中有6万4700个职位由本地人填补，其余15万6900个是外国人代劳。
截至去年12月，我国总就业人数达295万人，本地人占了64%，共189万4700人；外国人36%，共105万7700人。
报告显示，去年最后一季被裁及提前被解约的员工达9410个，远比第三季的3180人高。
去年全年约有1万3920名员工被公司裁退，提前被解约的则有2970人。其中被裁人数紧次于2003年沙斯来袭时的1万6400人，是过去五年来的最高纪录。
被裁退者当中，PMET占了37%（1年前的比例是31%），人数从去年第三季的950人激增到最后一季的3790个，全年共有6200名PMET员工被裁或提前解约。
值得注意的是，1998年亚洲金融危机时，被解雇的PMET人员仅占总解雇人数19%，当时受影响的主要是与生产线相关的员工。
受金融海啸冲击，我国经济从去年9月开始直线下滑，但因为去年上半年劳工市场表现强劲，还是为全年带来了8.1%的就业增长，共增加22万1600个新职位，虽然这比前年的23万4900份新工作或9.4%的增幅逊色。去年最后一季仅出现2万1300份新工作，还不到第三季5万5700份新工作的一半，而和2007年第四季的6万2500份新工作相比，更是天渊之别。 报告也显示，去年各行各业的就业情况都迅速恶化，当中以制造业最严峻。制造业在去年第四季减了7000份工作，是这领域自2003年第三季以来，首次出现缩减。
制造业所流失的工作主要是在电子产品和交通器材方面。全年来说，制造业创造了1万9500份新工作，不到前年（4万9300份）的一半。
大学毕业生失业
增加了一倍以上
服务业去年也只增加了13万6400份新工作，比前年少了6700份。只有建筑业逆流而上，所增添的新工作比前年多出2万多份，共6万4000份。
总的来说，中学教育程度以下的失业者还是占大多数，共有2万1300人（31%），他们大多在40岁以上。不过，令人关注的是，有更多大学毕业生加入失业大军，从前年底的6200人（14%）激增到去年底的1万4800人（21%），增加了一倍以上。
截至去年12月，求职超过6个月仍无法找到工作的本地人，从前年的8700人增加到去年12月的1万2900人。而职位空缺共有2万6100个，比去年9月减少将近三成。
人力部指出，随着更多雇主预计接下来半年的经商环境会进一步恶化，下来的就业市场预料也不容乐观。
接受调查经济师预测 我国经济有望在第四季复苏
（2009-03-17）
● 何丽丽 经济师预料我国经济将有望在第四季出现复苏，然后明年取得全年增长，但复苏前的经济衰退将比原先预料中的还要严重。
经济师预测，我国经济今年全年将萎缩4.9％，这与他们三个月前所预测的萎缩1％相比，显示经济师的近期经济展望明显更加悲观。
经济师也预测，我国经济今年第一季、第二季和第三季将分别出现8.5％、6.9％和4.6％的萎缩，第四季可恢复到0.5％的增长，2010年全年则料可增长3.3％。
渣打银行经济师柳天成表示，若我国经济今年第一季果真萎缩8.5％，那将会是自1976年，有关当局发布季度经济增长数据以来，最大幅度的同比季度萎缩。
新加坡金融管理局是每三个月向经济师展开调查，收集他们对经济前景的看法。最新的调查在2月下旬进行，该局向22名经济师发出问卷，共有20名经济师答复问卷。这项调查纯属经济师的看法，并不代表金管局的立场。
调查结果显示，经济师对全年经济增长的预测中位数是萎缩4.9％，而最可能出现的局面是萎缩5％到5.9％之间。
由于全球经济突告恶化，我国经济表现也急转直下，贸工部1月21日宣布再调低今年全年的经济增长预测，从原本的萎缩2％至1％增长，调低到萎缩2％至5％，显示我国有可能陷入自1965年独立以来最糟的经济衰退期。
我国去年第四季的国内生产总值萎缩了4.2％，全年增长也只得1.1％，经济放缓程度超出经济师的预料，这次答复问卷的经济师对今年所作的经济增长预测也相应调低。
● 何丽丽 经济师预料我国经济将有望在第四季出现复苏，然后明年取得全年增长，但复苏前的经济衰退将比原先预料中的还要严重。
经济师预测，我国经济今年全年将萎缩4.9％，这与他们三个月前所预测的萎缩1％相比，显示经济师的近期经济展望明显更加悲观。
经济师也预测，我国经济今年第一季、第二季和第三季将分别出现8.5％、6.9％和4.6％的萎缩，第四季可恢复到0.5％的增长，2010年全年则料可增长3.3％。
渣打银行经济师柳天成表示，若我国经济今年第一季果真萎缩8.5％，那将会是自1976年，有关当局发布季度经济增长数据以来，最大幅度的同比季度萎缩。
新加坡金融管理局是每三个月向经济师展开调查，收集他们对经济前景的看法。最新的调查在2月下旬进行，该局向22名经济师发出问卷，共有20名经济师答复问卷。这项调查纯属经济师的看法，并不代表金管局的立场。
调查结果显示，经济师对全年经济增长的预测中位数是萎缩4.9％，而最可能出现的局面是萎缩5％到5.9％之间。
由于全球经济突告恶化，我国经济表现也急转直下，贸工部1月21日宣布再调低今年全年的经济增长预测，从原本的萎缩2％至1％增长，调低到萎缩2％至5％，显示我国有可能陷入自1965年独立以来最糟的经济衰退期。
我国去年第四季的国内生产总值萎缩了4.2％，全年增长也只得1.1％，经济放缓程度超出经济师的预料，这次答复问卷的经济师对今年所作的经济增长预测也相应调低。
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