短线观点：“二次探底”

作者：英国《金融时报》约翰•奥瑟兹(John Authers)
These are testing times – for the world's politicians, its financial system and its stock markets.
现在是考验我们的时候——对于全球政治家、金融体系以及股票市场而言皆是如此。
Market analysts long believed that the lows for US and world stock indices set on November 20 would have to be “tested” at least once before any strong rally.
长时间以来，市场分析人士一直认为，去年11月20日创下的美国及全球股指低点至少会被“检验”一次，然后才可能出现强劲的上涨。
That is now happening.
这种“检验”现在正在进行。
The lowest close for the S&P 500 in November was 752.44, having reached 741.02 intra-day. As this column went to press yesterday, at 1pm in New York, this had hit 751.05. This has once more brought the S&P below its October 2002 low following the internet bubble.
去年11月份，标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)的最低收盘点位为752.44点，盘中曾触及741.02点。本专栏于23日出版，当日纽约时间下午1点，该指数触及751.05点。标准普尔500指数再度跌破互联网泡沫之后于2002年10月创下的低点。
If stocks fall from here, the psychological effect on traders, who tend to take long-term charts seriously, could be devastating. But if nerves hold and the index gains, people could believe that the low has been “tested” and found to be solid. That could bring cash back to the market.
如果股指跌破这一点位，对于交易员心理将产生破坏性的影响——他们往往比较看重长期图形。但如果市场经受住了考验，股指出现反弹，人们可能会认为，这一低点已得到“检验”，并被证明是坚实的。这可能会吸引资金重新入场。
Both the November low and this latest sell-off revolve around Citigroup. The issue for government and the markets is also the same: what can the government do to stop the collapse of a bank that was allowed to become far too big?
去年11月份的低点以及最新一轮下跌都与花旗集团(Citigroup)有关。政府和市场面临的问题也是一样的：政府能够采取何种措施，来阻止一家被允许变得过大的银行破产？
Many seem now to believe that outright nationalisation is the best alternative remaining. But yesterday'sUS announcement showed that the Obama administration is still trying to avoid full nationalisation for Citi, or for other big banks, such as Bank of America.
许多人现在似乎都认为，完全国有化是现存最好的选择。但美国23日的声明显示，奥巴马政府仍试图避免对花旗或美国银行(Bank of America)等其它大银行施行全面国有化。
The market has been on hold since the rescue package for Citi in November. Once it was clear that governments would make a strenuous response to the financial crisis, traders needed to wait for more details. The move to re-test the lows shows the fear that the current plans are not enough.
自去年11月份花旗纾困计划出台以来，市场一直在等待。当政府明确表示将对此次金融危机做出积极回应，交易员就需要等待更多的细节。市场再次下探低点，表明投资者担心目前的计划还不够。
Market perceptions and economic realities can reinforce each other. And so this test of the stock market low is also a critical test of the government.
市场感觉与经济现实会互相强化。因此，这种对股市低点的检验，也是对政府的严峻考验。
译者/梁艳裳