Thursday, June 25, 2009

美联储保持美元利率不变

 
 

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via FT中文网 - FTChinese.com - 今日焦点 by 英国《金融时报》艾伦·拉贝波特(Alan Rappeport)纽约报道 on 6/25/09

美联储(Federal Reserve)周三表示,它将保持美元利率不变,并称经济活动将在"一段时间内"保持低落,然后才能恢复增长。

美联储仍表示,将推进其3000亿美元美国国债购买计划,并表示,它将"继续评估自己购买证券的时机和总体数量"。该机构未对此前宣布的购买总量或时机作出任何变动。

市场对美联储的宣布并不感到意外。外汇和债券市场的初步反应相对低调。美联储作出宣布后不久,股票和债券市场均出现抛售。

在美联储结束两天政策会议之际,人们普遍预期,该机构将保持美元利率在零至0.25%的区间不变,维持货币政策历史上最为激进的放松周期。

美联储官员表示,"金融市场的状况近月来普遍有所改善",但称,支出仍将受到失业、住宅财富缩水和信贷紧缩的制约。

虽然能源和大宗商品价格近期上涨,但美联储表示,它预期"资源需求松弛"将压低价格,通胀将在一段时间内处于低位。

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Wednesday, June 24, 2009

GOLD SETTING UP FOR MOVE HIGHER

 
 

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via StockCharts Blogs - ChartWatchers by Tom Bowley on 6/21/09

There are lots of questions in the market regarding possible inflation, deflation, and general market weakness.  One way to hedge against all three is to play gold.  Below is a long-term weekly chart that shows gold in a very bullish inverse head & shoulders continuation pattern.  The current pattern is preceded by an uptrend, a requirement for an inverse head & shoulder pattern to be effective.  While there are plenty of fundamental reasons to include gold in your portfolio, the technical reasons may be even stronger.

Check out the 5 year weekly chart on gold:

Cww20090620t-1

Watch for a breakout on gold above 1000, especially above 1025.  The argument for a move higher grows stronger if equities weaken further or simply consolidate this summer.  In my last article, I pointed out that the market appeared to be topping and I produced a video detailing the reasons.  If you haven't seen the video, or you simply want to check out other videos that have been produced, click here (www.investedcentral.com/public/department57.cfm).  There were several factors that influenced my call, including a VIX that had hit key long-term support.  I believed the VIX would bounce off support and, in doing so, would send the major indices lower.  Support at and around 28 on the VIX is quite strong as can be seen below:

Cww20090620t-2

The primary trend in equities remains bullish in my view.  I believe the current move lower is potentially establishing the right shoulder of a reverse head & shoulders bottoming pattern as shown below on the S&P 500 chart:

Cww20090620t-3

I'm expecting a test of the 50 day SMA, possibly slightly lower, before another leg higher.  So, short-term I expect the market to be choppy to lower.  I do, however, expect another rally to new highs in the not-too-distant future.  Any further move to the downside will have to be evaluated as to volume, divergences, etc. in order to determine if the move down is something other than a corrective decline.  An impulsive move to the downside would need to be respected.

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CapitaMall surges after CLSA upgrades rating, price target

 
 

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via EdgeSingapore RSS on 6/24/09

CapitaMall Trust, a shopping mall operator partly owned by Southeast Asia's biggest developer, surged after CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets upgraded the stock's rating and share-price target.

The stock gained as much as 3.1% to $1.37, poised for its highest close since June 16. Its parent CapitaLand also added as much as 1.4% to $3.64.

CLSA upgraded its rating on CapitaMall to "outperform" from "underperform" and raised the share-price target to $1.46 from $1.27.

"Our channel checks suggest that retail space occupancy has held up better than earlier expectations," Yew Kiang Wong, an analyst at CLSA, wrote in a note dated yesterday. "While rents are off 15% to 20% from their peak, further pressure will be muted."

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Tuesday, June 23, 2009

7 things to keep in mind before buying that home

 
 

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via Lushhomemedia by luxuryasiahome on 6/20/09


The current rush to buy new private homes leaves businessman Alan Lim feeling cold.

That is because he recently lost $220,000 on the sale of his condo unit at The Inspira, off Mohamed Sultan Road, and is in no mood to shop for another.

He bought the unit for more than $1.4 million in 2006 as an investment and sold it in April for about $1.2 million. He wanted to sell it before the condo was completed.

Unlike Mr Lim, many other home hunters have put down money on new properties.

Sales of new private homes reached a recession-defying level of 1,668 units last month – the highest level since the property boom of August 2007.

Top sellers last month included Martin Place Residences in Kim Yam Road and The Wharf Residence in Tong Watt Road.

Buyers were drawn to the significant price cuts – up to 25 per cent lower than last year – at these projects.

Market watchers said the improved sentiment, which is in line with the recent stock market rally, has triggered a herd instinct.

But they warned that there are things to keep in mind when investing in a new apartment or house.

1 Do not rush

This is a perennial piece of advice given by industry observers and experts. In following the herd, some may end up buying a property that is 'not so good' for them, said one property expert.

Determine how much money you can spare and buy only what you can afford, they said.

If you are looking for property as an investment, you should do your research first. Units in prime areas and near MRT stations tend to be easier to rent out.

PropNex chief executive Mohamed Ismail feels it pays to think long term, given that the economic outlook is still unclear.

'If you can afford to buy a property now for investment, look at it only from a mid- to long-term perspective,' he said.

That means a time frame of five years and beyond. There is a higher probability that home prices will rise by then, he said.

But the HDB resale market has been more resilient, amid tight supply, with prices inching lower by just 0.8 per cent in the first quarter – the first fall since the third quarter of 2006.

2 To buy or not to buy?

Many people who entered the market recently were afraid of missing the boat, having seen how fast prices climbed in 2007.

They want to get a good bargain as they believe the market has bottomed. Their reasoning: There is little to lose buying at the bottom.

Still, if you ask Mr Leong Sze Hian, president of the Society of Financial Service Professionals, he feels it is better to wait till there are more concrete signs of a property market recovery.

The chances of reselling for a profit will be better then.

'In my view, when the market is declining in price, like now, don't buy, wait for the URA quarterly index to rebound,' he said.

The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) price index shows that private home prices plunged by a record 14.1 per cent in the first quarter, following a 6.1 per cent slide in the fourth quarter of last year.

Analysts expect to see a fall that is less steep in the second quarter. URA will release new data next month.

'Why take a risk and buy now? You don't have to try to catch the market at the bottom, but rather catch it on the upside – lower risk,' said Mr Leong.

Historically in a recession, the property market has never gone up, he added.

3 Check with your bank on financing

If you do decide to buy, get in-principle approval or a credit assessment from your bank to make sure it can finance your purchase.

This is particularly so if you intend to buy a resale home, now that more individual sellers have taken to raising prices.

Banks may be less conservative in lending these days but you may find that they are still not able to match the asking prices of the properties, experts said.

If this is the case, buyers will have to fork out more cash. Or they can wait, provided no one else is keen on that particular property.

4 Set aside spare cash…

Do not put all your cash into your property purchase.

Always make sure you have some left over to cover renovation and repair costs.

Determine how extensively you want to renovate the property.

HSR Property Group executive director Eric Cheng suggests setting aside 5 per cent to 7 per cent of the property purchase price for renovation.

Investors should also set aside some cash for unexpected repairs in the future.

5 …and more spare cash

Do not rely completely on rental income to help pay the mortgage, experts said.

You may be able to buy a tenanted property, but when the tenancy ends in the next year or two, you may not be able to get the same rent.

Private home rents plunged 8.5 per cent in the first quarter, following a 5.3 per cent fall in the last three months of last year.

Many analysts expect rents to continue falling, though some believe they are stabilising.

Also, remember there may be periods of zero rental when there are no takers, said Mr Ismail.

He advises buyers to keep enough cash to pay for at least six months of mortgage payments.

6 Watch out for top-up calls

No investors would say 'no' to an opportunity to buy at the bottom. The problem is, no one knows where the bottom is.

Banks may do a fresh valuation right before the property obtains the temporary occupation permit, before they disimburse the loan, said Mr Cheng.

If your price today is not supported by the banks one or two years down the road, there is a possibility that you may be asked to cough up the difference in cold hard cash, he said.

7 Don't overcommit

Although Singapore remains in a recession, improved sentiment and high sales of new homes have drawn some speculators back into the market.

Developers are launching more properties. They typically hold preview sales for guests, who may also be offered discounts of around 5 per cent.

Developers may also raise their prices slightly at the proper launch.

That is when some flippers will offer to sell their units at a level a tad below the launch price, experts said.

It may seem like a bargain, but is it?

Do not be tempted to commit immediately, said Mr Cheng.

Always consider the purchase seriously – because the same risks remain.

Source : Sunday Times – 21  Jun 2009


 
 

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市場輾轉疑春芽,聯儲開會撫人心

 
 

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甲流感并未影响人们的生活

 
 

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本地已经出现甲型流感社区感染的病例,但是人们的生活似乎并没有受到多大的影响,星期日大巴窑和往常周末一样人潮涌动,而在举行大热卖的乌节路更是热闹非凡。

 
 

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波东巴西附近一公寓项目 两百余单位两天卖出九成

 
 

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尽管股市已出现下调,但本地的楼市的"小阳春"温暖依旧。星狮地产在波东巴西附近推出的8@Woodleigh公寓项目吸引大批人潮订购,推出的230个单位两天就卖出90%。

 
 

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Thursday, June 18, 2009

雷曼清算人从速处置中国房地产投资组合

 
 

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via FT中文网 - FTChinese.com - 今日焦点 by 英国《金融时报》森迪普•塔克(Sundeep Tucker)香港报道 on 6/18/09

雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)中国房地产投资组合的破产清算人迅速行动,已出售了大部分资产。目前,人们对上海商业房地产价值的前景感到担忧。

毕马威(KPMG)昨日透露,它已处置了9笔与中国房地产相关的贷款和债券中的7笔,为已经倒闭的美国银行雷曼兄弟的债权人带来逾2亿美元所得。

这些交易实现了80%的平均回收率,代表着对雷曼构建的庞大全球房地产投资组合的首批重大处置。

这些处置可能使部分业内人士感到意外,他们曾对破产清算人在动荡市场中成功处置资产的能力表示悲观。

负责出售行动的毕马威合伙人迈克尔•林赛(Michael Lindsay)告诉英国《金融时报》,7笔贷款中有6笔涉及上海的房地产交易。

多数交易是把贷款出售给原来的借贷方。

他说:"2009年初,我们的市场情报显示,商业租金和资本价值存在恶化风险,尤其是在上海写字楼领域……我们因此觉得有必要迅速行动。"

未来12个月,上海将有大量新建的商业房地产陆续竣工,由此压低租金收益率和资本价值。

林赛是毕马威公司融资部门的全球房地产主管,平时在伦敦办公,目前他被临时借调至毕马威香港办事处,督办一项尽职和处置计划。

毕马威正在清算雷曼在日本以外的大部分亚洲资产,上述7笔房地产贷款曾被列入在香港注册的一个实体的账目,该实体去年9月的总投资为12.5亿美元。

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Home prices in US to fall 14% more: Deutsche

 
 

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via Lushhomemedia by luxuryasiahome on 6/17/09


New York, Orange County leading drop as higher unemployment offsets lower prices

US home prices may fall another 14 per cent, led by the New York and Orange County, California, metropolitan areas, before reaching a bottom as an increase in unemployment offsets lower prices, Deutsche Bank AG said.

'Affordability is no longer the driving issue in the housing market, and we believe prices still have a ways to fall in many areas before home prices reach their trough,' Deutsche Bank analysts led by Karen Weaver, wrote in a report yesterday. 'The bottom is getting closer, but we are not there yet.'

Home prices are forecast to fall 41.7 per cent from their peak, Ms Weaver said.

That's higher than a forecast she released in March and reflects 'the actual declines to date and the expected future impact on home prices from rising foreclosure inventory and unemployment'.

In March, Deutsche Bank had forecast a 16.5 per cent decline in 'current-to-trough' prices. While today's projection is less than that, many metropolitan areas will still see steep declines, the report said.

In the New York metropolitan area, they may drop 40.6 per cent from the first quarter to the bottom, the report said, less than Deutsche Bank's March estimate of 47.4 per cent.

Financial firms have cut more than 183,000 jobs in the Americas in the global credit crisis, driving down prices and rents in the New York area.

In New York City, Manhattan co-op prices slid the most since 1995 in the first quarter, according to data from Miller Samuel Inc and broker Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate.

The New York metropolitan area's median home price peaked in the second quarter of 2007 at US$552,000 and has since fallen to US$446,000, the report said.

Home prices in Orange County, California, are forecast to fall another 19.1 per cent, Deutsche Bank said.

Prices in the Los Angeles- Long Beach-Glendale metropolitan area may fall another 11.3 per cent from the first quarter to the bottom. In Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, they may fall 14.3 per cent.

California leads the nation in foreclosures. US foreclosure filings surpassed 300,000 for the third straight month in May and may hit a record 1.8 million in the first half of the year, RealtyTrac Inc said in a June 11 report.

The US unemployment rate will likely exceed 10 per cent by early next year, Deutsche Bank said.

Source : Business Times – 18  Jun 2009


 
 

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Yanlord seeks $525m in stock, bond sale

 
 

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via EdgeSingapore RSS on 6/17/09

Yanlord Land Group, the Chinese property developer, is seeking to raise $525 million by selling shares and convertible bonds to fund investments in China.

Yanlord, listed in Singapore, plans to sell 120 million shares at $2.08 apiece for a total of $250 million, according to a statement to the city's stock exchange today. That's a 10 % discount to the last traded price of $2.31 before the stock was halted from trading yesterday.

The company will also sell $275 million in five-year convertible bonds with a conversion price of $2.62. Yanlord may sell an additional $100 million of bonds, according to the statement.

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通膨預期消退中

 
 

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Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Developers rush to catch buying wave

 
 

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via Lushhomemedia by luxuryasiahome on 6/16/09


HOME hunters can expect a wider choice as property developers look to bring forward project launches in a bid to ride a strong wave of home-buying.

They have been encouraged by a stunning surge in private home sales; figures this week show May sales at 1,668 units – the highest level since August 2007.

Sentiment has improved significantly in recent months, in line with stock market rises, while the sale prices of new homes appear to have crept up from the lows they sank to earlier this year.

But there are increasing concerns this buying wave may not be sustainable. Some analysts argue that the pace of the upswing is too fast and too furious, given that rents are falling amid the weak economy and that a plentiful supply of new homes is coming onstream.

And with the stock market taking a breather, there are worries this will hurt demand. Consultants say some buyers had bought property with the money they made from stocks.

Also, the heat has been confined mostly to certain property launches. HSR Property Group executive director Eric Cheng said the action in the resale market is largely in mass market properties.

Given this, developers with launch- ready projects are likely to be keen to get sales under way quickly. Apart from rushing to get sales permits in order to catch the buying wave, developers would also want to launch before the Hungry Ghost month, said Mr Cheng.

Hungry Ghost month – the 7th month of the lunar calendar – starts on Aug 20 this year. Superstitious buyers may not want to buy a home during this period.

This weekend, SingBuilders will be launching 26-unit Spring @ Langsat near the Eunos MRT station at an average price of $820 psf. A preview last month saw nine units sold at prices ranging from $822 psf to $1,010 psf.

Propnex, which is marketing the project, said the launch decision was made just last week. 'Market sentiment is good. This is the best time in eight months to launch,' said its chief executive Mohamed Ismail.

This weekend will also see the launch of the freehold Parc Seabreeze in Marine Parade. Agents have advertised it at prices of $1,200 psf to $1,400 psf.

Far East Organization is also expected to launch the freehold 280-unit Vista Residences in Jalan Datoh soon.

A classified ad gives the special preview date as June 24 and the price at $980 to $1,200 psf. It is near The Arte – launched at $880 psf in March and sold at a median price of $933 psf in May.

Soft marketing has started for the the 437-unit Waterfront Key project in Bedok Reservoir, the 388-unit Oasis@Elias in Pasir Ris and Frasers Centrepoint Homes' 330-unit leasehold project near the Woodleigh MRT station.

Waterfront Key is the second of four condos to be built by Far East and Frasers Centrepoint on the former Waterfront View estate site. The first, Waterfront Waves, was relaunched in the first quarter at a reduced average price of $600 psf, down from $800 psf early last year.

To capitalise on the better mood, Wing Tai recently soft launched Belle Vue Residences at Oxley Walk while Allgreen Properties started a special preview for the freehold 152-unit One Devonshire near Killiney Road last week.

DMG Research said in a report yesterday that it expects the sales momentum to persist for the next six to nine months.

Already, the strong sales momentum has reignited interest among developers in buying sites. DTZ Debenham Tie Leung (SEA) yesterday put up two sites for tender – the first two official distressed sales sites – to take advantage of the improved sentiment.

'There's been a trending up of take-up rate so this is a window of opportunity for developers to launch their projects,' said its senior director for investment advisory services Shuan Poh.

DTZ was appointed by the receiver and manager of Consult Asia to sell the two sites. One is at the corner of Changi Road and Still Road and the other in Balestier Road. 'There are developers who sold their projects very well recently and are eagerly looking for more mass and mid-market sites to launch or to invest in. If they want to rush the Changi site, they can take as little as three to four months to get everything ready for launch,' said Mr Poh.


Coming up

One Devonshire

Where: Killiney Road, near Somerset MRT station
Developer: Allgreen Properties

Spring@Langsat

Where: Langsat Road, near Eunos MRT station
Developer: SingBuilders

Parc Seabreeze

Where: Marine Parade Road
Developer: Tiong Aik

Vista Residences

Where: Jalan Datoh (Balestier)
Developer: Far East Organization

Source : Straits Times – 17 Jun 2009


 
 

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破產前夜的加利福尼亞

 
 

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Midas Holdings surges as high as 9.9% on contract win

 
 

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via EdgeSingapore RSS on 6/16/09

Midas Holdings (MIDAS SP), the supplier of aluminum alloy products and pipes used in train carriages, surged as high as 9.9% to 72 cents. The company said yesterday it won two contracts worth 603 million yuan ($128.6 million) to supply aluminum alloy products for the construction of 1,600 high-speed train cars in China.

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Singapore exports fall the least in eight months as slump eases

 
 

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via EdgeSingapore RSS on 6/16/09

Singapore's exports dropped the least in eight months in May, adding to signs the global trade slump may be easing.
 
Non-oil domestic exports fell 12.1% from a year earlier, after contracting 19.2% in April, the trade promotion agency said in a statement today. Economists had expected an 11.7% decline.

 
 

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0615本周匯市展望與市場焦點預覽

 
 

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Tuesday, June 16, 2009

A merry May for home sales

 
 

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via Lushhomemedia by luxuryasiahome on 6/15/09


SALES of new private homes rocketed last month, thanks to price cuts and the share market rally boosting buyer confidence.

Recession-defying numbers out yesterday showed there were 1,668 units sold in May, just a tad below the all-time high of 1,731 set in the boom-time month of August 2007.

Last month's figure was also well ahead of the already-strong developer sales of 1,214 units in April and 1,220 in March.

PropNex chief executive Mohamed Ismail cited recent rallying of the stock markets and launches by developers at attractive prices as reasons for what he described as outstanding sales last month.

Many speculators who had been sitting on the fence were spurred into action, hoping to take advantage of the low prices in the market across all levels, he said.

Other experts cited pent-up demand and buyers' fear of missing the boat as explanations for the sales spike.

Developers stepped up a gear last month as well, launching 1,161 new homes, up from 1,085 in April, according to Urban Redevelopment Authority data.

The total sales of 2,882 units recorded in April and last month exceeded first-quarter sales by 11 per cent and they were generally done at prices higher than the first quarter's, said CBRE Research.

One striking aspect of last month's bumper numbers is that sales of homes in the core central or prime region nearly doubled from April to 617 units. This comprised 37 per cent of total sales.

Despite being in the midst of an economic downturn, this region's May sales have outshone the August 2007 performance by 6 per cent, said Jones Lang LaSalle's associate director of research, Mr Desmond Sim.

The high-end segment, while still mired in the doldrums, recorded 15 transactions, up from three in April, noted PropNex. Two units at The Orchard Residences atop the Orchard MRT station, for instance, were sold at $2,787 per sq ft (psf) and $3,299 psf – prices that have not been seen for a while.

Sales were also well up in city-fringe areas. There, 609 units transacted at median prices of $735 psf to $1,200 psf over April's 362 units.

But sales of suburban homes reflecting a median price range of $580 psf to $760 psf fell 16 per cent to 442 units.

The best-selling project last month was the 302-unit Martin Place Residences in Kim Yam Road, which had sales of 186 units at a median price of $1,423 psf.

Buyers flocked there after Frasers Centrepoint cut prices to a seemingly attractive level – initial units at the condo had gone for $1,700 to $2,000 psf last year.

Other popular projects included The Wharf Residence in Tong Watt Road and The Arte in Jalan Datoh. Buyers picked up 140 units at The Wharf Residence at a median price of $1,186 psf and units of The Arte at $933 psf.

Experts said the unexpectedly strong May showing was rather exceptional.

Mr Ismail said the number of transactions this month could well exceed 1,000 units while CBRE Research expects second-quarter sales to exceed 3,500 units.

If the present strong sentiment persists, this year's new home sales will exceed 10,000 units, which is way above the 4,264 units sold last year and close to the 11,147 units sold in 2006, it said.

Source : Straits Times – 16 Jun 2009


 
 

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