作者:英国《金融时报》约翰•奥瑟兹(John Authers)
These are testing times – for the world's politicians, its financial system and its stock markets.
现在是考验我们的时候——对于全球政治家、金融体系以及股票市场而言皆是如此。
Market analysts long believed that the lows for US and world stock indices set on November 20 would have to be “tested” at least once before any strong rally.
长时间以来,市场分析人士一直认为,去年11月20日创下的美国及全球股指低点至少会被“检验”一次,然后才可能出现强劲的上涨。
That is now happening.
这种“检验”现在正在进行。
The lowest close for the S&P 500 in November was 752.44, having reached 741.02 intra-day. As this column went to press yesterday, at 1pm in New York, this had hit 751.05. This has once more brought the S&P below its October 2002 low following the internet bubble.
去年11月份,标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)的最低收盘点位为752.44点,盘中曾触及741.02点。本专栏于23日出版,当日纽约时间下午1点,该指数触及751.05点。标准普尔500指数再度跌破互联网泡沫之后于2002年10月创下的低点。
If stocks fall from here, the psychological effect on traders, who tend to take long-term charts seriously, could be devastating. But if nerves hold and the index gains, people could believe that the low has been “tested” and found to be solid. That could bring cash back to the market.
如果股指跌破这一点位,对于交易员心理将产生破坏性的影响——他们往往比较看重长期图形。但如果市场经受住了考验,股指出现反弹,人们可能会认为,这一低点已得到“检验”,并被证明是坚实的。这可能会吸引资金重新入场。
Both the November low and this latest sell-off revolve around Citigroup. The issue for government and the markets is also the same: what can the government do to stop the collapse of a bank that was allowed to become far too big?
去年11月份的低点以及最新一轮下跌都与花旗集团(Citigroup)有关。政府和市场面临的问题也是一样的:政府能够采取何种措施,来阻止一家被允许变得过大的银行破产?
Many seem now to believe that outright nationalisation is the best alternative remaining. But yesterday'sUS announcement showed that the Obama administration is still trying to avoid full nationalisation for Citi, or for other big banks, such as Bank of America.
许多人现在似乎都认为,完全国有化是现存最好的选择。但美国23日的声明显示,奥巴马政府仍试图避免对花旗或美国银行(Bank of America)等其它大银行施行全面国有化。
The market has been on hold since the rescue package for Citi in November. Once it was clear that governments would make a strenuous response to the financial crisis, traders needed to wait for more details. The move to re-test the lows shows the fear that the current plans are not enough.
自去年11月份花旗纾困计划出台以来,市场一直在等待。当政府明确表示将对此次金融危机做出积极回应,交易员就需要等待更多的细节。市场再次下探低点,表明投资者担心目前的计划还不够。
Market perceptions and economic realities can reinforce each other. And so this test of the stock market low is also a critical test of the government.
市场感觉与经济现实会互相强化。因此,这种对股市低点的检验,也是对政府的严峻考验。
译者/梁艳裳
Friday, February 27, 2009
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Blog Archive
-
▼
2009
(659)
-
▼
February
(69)
- 短线观点:“二次探底”
- 水之轩等销售报捷 发展商趁胜出击抢客
- 中国航油年净利增14%
- 怎樣才能激活房地產市場
- US nationalisation of banks - an update
- GIC does not plan to convert Citigroup preferred s...
- 龔方雄:中國經濟V型反彈!
- 李总理:全球衰退远超想象 今年经济将格外艰难
- 股市本周走势 料续受美国影响
- 末日博士:黑暗中仍有投资亮点
- 复苏在望 “本轮经济调整2009年一季度见底”
- 上海一、二手房價倒掛波及內環
- 只有459万元 创业季度净利大跌94%
- SAP's Sticky Situation
- 道瓊周二大跌近300點 參考美股 戒心不可少
- 王石稱房地產調整遠未結束 金融危機影響才開始(圖)
- 陶冬:中國 會是世界第一個復甦的地方 買中國
- Luxury condo prices dive in KL
- 最大交易基金持有量创新高 黄金成资金避险工具
- 炒家出现 Alexis一些单位可能归还发展商
- Some Alexis buyers offer units in subsale market
- 22年来最大跌幅 上月非石油出口挫35%
- 昨再跌42点 海指逼近去年10月低位
- Property players look beyond black January
- 上海經適房選址敲定近郊 商品房價可能再降3成
- 政府拟吸引更多人 加入“红牌车”行列
- 长途配套优惠多 旅游展意外大热
- 製作自己的「賺錢筆記」副標:讓失敗變有用 抓住下一次機會
- 国会报道 新年度拥车证配额将锐减24%
- 汇丰亚太行政总裁: 亚洲经济将首先复苏
- 新航(SIA)
- Alexis: Developer offering discounts of 28% at con...
- Phase 1 of Circle Line to open on May 30
- 黄金指数 (芝加哥商品交易所)
- Launch of 6 more condos likely in next few months
- 分别配售附加股 嘉德与嘉茂商托股价一涨一跌
- 跌幅低于国际水平 淡马锡投资净值跌31%
- To refinance or not to refinance?
- One Shenton @ Shenton Way
- One Amber
- Some prime projects trading lower
- 上海樓市頻現退租潮 高檔二手房降價走向明朗
- Rights issues to pad up CapitaLand, CMT war chests
- 经纪到邻近组屋区发请柬 Caspian公寓两天卖80单位
- 金融海啸房价缩水 本地楼价仍高居全球第八位
- 黄金价格步步高
- 海峡时报指数(STI)
- 辉立交易员:海指正处缓慢上升势头
- 14幸运儿分享 1025万元多多红包
- Caspian公寓周末推出 售价较高峰期锐减近半
- 後市堪憂 香港地產股連番下挫 4大富豪買自家股份護盤
- 永慶房屋:上海一手房存量高達842萬平方米 今年降價埋下伏筆
- 中國物流與採購聯合會公佈1月採購經理人指數為 45.3
- 澳洲政府公佈415億澳元(261.9億美元)的經濟振興方 案
- 潛在供應量大上海房價壓力驟增
- 牛年開鴻運、十二盞財神燈
- DTZ Research says property inventory may take 5.5 ...
- 千万多多新春大奖周五开彩 昨晚开始接受投注大排长龙
- 謝金河:「牛轉乾坤」都是好年 台股將先苦後甘,漸入佳境
- 中国国务院紧急叫停重庆购房退税政策
- 美国道琼斯工业指数
- 明年后新私宅过多现象 料因政府伸援手而缓和
- En bloc units being rented out at half price
- Resale flats going below valuation
- 中国约两千万失业农民工返乡
- 海峡时报指数(STI)
- 直落古楼公寓 牛年抢先登场
- 我国就业情况急速恶化
- 让你受益终生的饮食习惯
-
▼
February
(69)
No comments:
Post a Comment