Thursday, May 21, 2009

Catch a Nasdaq by the Tail

 
 

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Posted By:Daryl Guppy
The Nasdaq has provided consistent leadership in market development since the beginning of the bear market on late 2007. This information is especially useful if you are trading the Dow or the S&P 500, as these indexes follow the Nasdaq with a lag of several days.     Read More

 
 

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STI may rise 21%, Credit Suisse says

 
 

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via EdgeSingapore RSS on 5/20/09

The Straits Times Index may rise 21% in the next 12 months on improving economic outlook and investors should "overweight" the city-state's stocks, Credit Suisse Group said. The stock market's price-to-book value of 1.56 times may head back to its five-year average of 1.85 times, lifting the nation's main equities index to 2,749, Credit Suisse said. The Straits Times Index rose 0.4% yesterday to 2,269.24.
 


 
 

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Singapore’s economy may be past worst, shrinks 14.6% in Q1, less than foreca...

 
 

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via EdgeSingapore RSS on 5/20/09

Singapore's government said the economy shrank less than initially estimated last quarter and a second stimulus package may not be needed as the nation emerges from the deepest recession in its 44-year history, reported Bloomberg.

Gross domestic product declined an annualised 14.6% last quarter from the previous three months, after shrinking 16.4% between October and December, the trade ministry said in a statement today. The initial estimate on April 14 was for a 19.7% drop.

Singapore joins other Asian nations in showing signs it may be past the worst of its year-long export slump. The Bank of Japan may raise its assessment of the economy for the first time since July 2006 tomorrow, even after a report showed a record contraction in the first quarter, economists say.

"The economy probably reached the trough last quarter but the 'green shoots-of-recovery' story will have to wait a bit longer," said Selena Ling, head of treasury research at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in Singapore. "The pace of declines may ease but the second quarter will still be a weak one for Singapore."

The worst global recession since World War II has battered Singapore's exports, forcing companies including Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing to fire a record number of workers on the island and prompting the government to cut taxes and hand cash to businesses to help them cope with the slowdown.

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong's government expects the economy to shrink as much as 9% in 2009, the most since independence in 1965. The International Monetary Fund predicts a 10% contraction, the worst performance in Asia.

Second Stimulus
"We seem to have hit the bottom and things are not likely to get worse from this point on," Ravi Menon, an official at the trade ministry, told reporters today. The economy is "not likely" to need a second stimulus package this year because things haven't worsened, he said.

The Singapore dollar rose 0.4% to $1.4557 against the US currency at 11:37 a.m. local time. The island's currency is the worst performer in Asia after the Malaysian ringgit among 10 currencies outside Japan, declining 0.8% this year.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore said last month it would adjust the trading range for the Singapore dollar, a move economists say effectively devalued the currency.

The Singapore dollar's behaviour "is consistent with the policy stance and we're comfortable with the Singapore-dollar price action," Ong Chong Tee, a central bank deputy managing director, said at a press briefing today.

Slow Recovery
Singapore's economy will make a "slow and gradual" climb out of the recession, rather than a "decisive rebound" this year, the central bank said last month. Taiwan may say today its GDP probably shrank at an unprecedented pace last quarter as exports to the US and China fell, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

The global economy is probably "nearing the turning point," Don Hanna, a New York-based economist at Citigroup Inc., said in a note yesterday, predicting a "subdued" recovery.

"We have probably seen most of the vulnerability already," Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said in Ho Chi Minh City yesterday. "I don't think we are going to get any more of big shocks from the US, Western Europe, Japan or China. My concern has shifted to how do we hold up if we have the world economy that stays depressed for a long time."

Jobless Rate
Singapore's US$161 billion economy contracted a revised 10.1% last quarter from a year earlier. Manufacturing, which accounts for a quarter of the economy, fell 26.1%, less than the 29% decline estimated on April 14. Services shrank a revised 5.2% while construction gained a revised 24.4%.

Employers fired a record 12,600 workers last quarter in Singapore, pushing the jobless rate to the highest in more than three years. Electronics exports have dropped every month for more than two years, and the financial services industry is shrinking after the global credit crisis.

Singapore's financial industry will probably shrink this year compared with 2008 even amid signs of some improvement in lending in the first quarter, the central bank's Ong said.

The economy may contract 6% to 9% this year, the trade ministry reiterated today. Consumer prices are forecast to remain unchanged or fall 1% in 2009, and non-oil domestic exports may plunge as much as 13%.

"While trade is still expected to be weak for the rest of 2009, further declines of the magnitude seen earlier this year seem unlikely," the ministry said. "Any new risk, such as an acute worsening of the Influenza A (H1N1) situation or undisclosed weaknesses in US or European banks coming to light, could set back the process of economic recovery by several quarters."

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0518本周匯市展望與市場焦點預覽

 
 

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美國資金持續流向海外與股市

 
 

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又一个怵目惊心的案例

 
 

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via 谈股论"指" by 谈股论"指" on 5/20/09

今天报上刊登有'股市金手指'美誉的黄鸿年先生亏损10亿新币（约50亿人民币）消息后，仔细翻阅报纸有关章节，试图找出一些蛛丝马迹来分析他失手的原因，由于有关信息太少，仅能从表面分析一下。期望对学生们有所启发。

 在新加坡可以说'股市金手指'黄先生是没有投资者不知道的一个充满神奇色彩的投资家，去年9月当AIG用7天从24美元下跌到1美元多时候，'金手指'抄底5天后抛出，赚了700万新币（相当于人民币3500万），随后立即捐献给新加坡教育基金，当初引起全国关注，赞誉之声不断。

图中绿色箭头为'金手指'抄底时间。

 恰好在11月新加坡课程中，有同学提出分析这个案例，并想介入当时价格在2元左右的AIG。

由于当时还看不到美国股票走势，无法给出明确的股票走势看法，我问该同学为什么对AIG感兴趣？是不是看到'金手指'赚了钱而心动？如果是这样，我劝你不要做，因为这有一个时机问题，金手指所以能成功从技术上看是有点碰巧，因为当时美国政府宣布要就它，如果没有美国政府的明确表态，AIG成雷曼第二也说不定。我不清楚金手指当初的投资策略是什么，如果仅仅从技术上看，这种方式是极其危险的手法，一旦失手，后果难以想象。在课堂上也就这种交易风格进行了讲解，提醒同学们将来抄底注意的要点。从金手指抄底到今年2月底期间AIG走势如下；

回到金手指亏损10亿新币（6.33亿美金）亏损的事情上来。

从报纸给出的信息看，'金手指'去年在美国发布的'福布斯'新加坡富豪排名上列29位，身家为2.1亿美元（3亿新元），这次一下就将身家三倍的数额亏损，不能不说是让全体新加坡投资者震惊的事件。

 金手指经常做善事，汶川地震一人就捐出200万新币（1千万人民币），估计新加坡最大慈善捐助人非他莫属。而就是这样一个善人，居然在投资上出现如此巨大的亏损。除尊敬他善举外，我想分析他的失误的原因或许能对同学们有点启发。

据报道，他是投资外汇和债券损失的，其中外汇损失最大（5.1830亿美元），而投资的外汇有英镑、美元、日元等，从报刊上刊登的有关日期都在英镑上标注，报刊刊登内容为；

 去年10月23日（图中A）银行告诉黄鸿年,他的按金被耗损，出现一亿美元的缺口，他于是减仓。10月27日（图中B），他被告只按金不足数额为9000万美元。岂料，隔日，这个缺口却增加到2亿美元。10月29日银行通知他，按金的缺口会跌到2800万美元。….10月29日当天，他还接获银行的另一份通知，告诉他在10月27日的按金缺口其实是3亿4800万美元。……。黄鸿年当时认为，花期银行的追踪与管理系统有问题，….，在没有更好选择下，他决定平仓。

 从图中和报道结合分析，可以明确知道当初是做多导致的亏损，从A到B亏损就增加2亿，可见仓位不小，而在C点平仓是正确的，如果死守到最低点1.34附近估计损失在10多亿美金。从技术走势看，和前面的AIG抄底模式相仿，前次成功而这次就失败了，根据已知信息还可以推算出建多仓位置应该在1.70左右。

 而黄鸿年起诉银行管理问题导致他亏损估计有点难度，从技术上看这个亏损是不可避免的，前期AIG抄底就采用的是类似的风格。

 

好在'金手指'在事情发生后一个月就把亏损的款项还清了，看来'福布斯'少算了金手指的身家，这样的事情要发生在一般投资者身上，想翻身都难。

 

我们从技术上看看当初的英镑走势。

 

  上图是让同学们体会的趋势关系图，从A/B/C三点显示的位置看，只能做空而没有任何做多的可能，如果按照趋势原则，本文分析的事情就不会发生。有趣的是，晚上志明同学来帮装电脑，就英镑走势提出立即就要上涨的看法有有点碰巧了。这是采用本次到香港期货交易中的'蜘蛛'技巧给出的看法。下图是截稿时的15分图。



 
 

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Viet property market seen bottoming out

 
 

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via Lushhomemedia by luxuryasiahome on 5/20/09


Prices at some developments may even rise 5-10% by end 2009: CBRE

THE residential property market in Vietnam is likely to have bottomed and prices at some developments may even rise 5-10 per cent by the end of this year, according to real estate consultant CB Richard Ellis (CBRE).

'There won't be anything like the demand we saw in 2007 and 2008, but at least it has stopped going down,' CBRE Vietnam's managing director Marc Townsend told BT.

From its peak in 2007, Vietnam's property market began cooling last year as inflation soared, interest rates shot up, and construction costs increased. The global financial crisis weakened the sector further as international investors stayed on the sidelines.

The average asking price for luxury apartments in Ho Chi Minh City, for instance, fell from more than US$5,500 psm (US$511 psf) to just over US$4,500 psm over 2008, CBRE noted.

But some economic factors have since improved. According to Bloomberg yesterday, inflation in Vietnam fell to 9.23 per cent in April, from a high of 28.3 per cent in August last year. Mr Townsend said lending rates and construction costs have also eased.

While the economic slowdown has led to lay-offs in Vietnam, most white-collar workers still have their jobs, he noted. In many cases too, expatriates have been the first to go, benefiting locals who got to fill their positions.

More importantly, some Vietnamese developers have trimmed asking prices to revive buying interest.

CBRE noted that one developer recently launched projects at prices more than 30 per cent lower than those last year. The company could have sold over 530 apartments in just four days, it said.

Singapore developers have not trimmed prices so far, Mr Townsend said. 'They have waited . . . and their patience has been rewarded with a strengthening of the market.'

Keppel Land's recent release of more units at the Estella is an example, he said. The developer told BT it offered a limited number of units early this month and there was 'an encouraging increase in the number of sales and enquiries'.

While Keppel Land kept the average selling price constant at US$2,000 – US$2,200 psm, it introduced – its first time in Vietnam – an optional staggered payment scheme for buyers.

Based on current sentiment, some residential properties may be able to achieve slight price increases this year, Mr Townsend said. Most developers are careful and will release a small number of units to test the market and create interest before raising prices, he said.

Source : Business Times – 21 May 2009


 
 

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Real estate investors see opportunities in Asian markets

 
 

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via Lushhomemedia by luxuryasiahome on 5/19/09


Global real estate investors are looking to tap on to growing opportunities in Asian markets.

Experts speaking at an industry event, Cityscape Asia 2009, in Singapore on Tuesday said China currently offers the most potential.

This is due to a number of good valuations available in the market, and the economy's positive growth outlook.

China's industrial property sector has been hit hard by the global economic downturn — over 100,000 factories closed shop in 2008. But experts say these properties offer good value as they are now undervalued.

And once these properties get snapped up, re-employment will start to boost commercial and residential real estate sectors.

John Evans, Managing Director, Tractus Asia, said: "In the Asian region there are opportunities across most of the countries. However, if you look at what's happening with the economies, the only one that is showing significant growth is still China. And while that growth is nowhere near the sort of stated eight per cent that the government said, it is still a healthy three to four per cent.

"With the crisis here, you've seen a decrease in property prices and… a lot of investors are trying to get out of non-performing assets, so you are seeing a lot of opportunities in China. In the real estate sector (China) is one place I will recommend."

Duncan Owen, CEO, Invista Real Estate, said: "Many of our investors that followed us from the UK and into continental Europe are looking increasingly to diversify, and diversify into long-run growth markets. And the mature Asian markets potentially give us just that type of opportunity to deploy capital and get the long-run types of returns that investors are looking for."

But market watchers say not all markets are equally attractive and warn of potential risks in the region.

Despite growing global investor interest in opportunities in the Asian property market, experts say that investors should be wary of the Thai property market as further decreases are expected in the year ahead.

They say prices in the Bangkok residential property market could decrease by some 25 to 30 per cent in the coming year.

Mr Evans said: "One to steer clear right now is Thailand. It is pretty obvious with political and economic instability that property values will be going down. Foreign direct investment has basically dried up in Thailand.

"My personal opinion is that we are going to see some further political instability. The Thai market tends to lag behind the economy and political situation by at least a year if not 18 months. So I think we are going to see a big decrease, maybe even 25 to 30 per cent in residential property in Bangkok as there is an oversupply and more supply coming online."

But observers also do not rule out future opportunities in the Thai market if the global economy and the Thai political situation begin to stabilise.

Source : Channel NewsAsia – 19 May 2009


 
 

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Wednesday, May 20, 2009

專訪全美第一大上市資產管理公司投資長 博多爾：美股還有一成反彈空間！ (今周刊)

 
 

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【 2009/05/20 】美國在引發金融風暴，與去年股市狂跌四成以後，似乎突然成為投資人避之惟恐不及的區域。但在貝萊德投資長眼...

 
 

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Six Easy Ways to Graph Your Life

 
 

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via Lifehacker: Top by Gina Trapani on 5/6/09

Your habits, behaviors, and the things you consume every day create patterns over time that say a whole lot about you as a person. It's time to graph your life.

Chart by Chandler.

How many Cokes do you drink per day on average? How many hours do you game per month? How much money did you spend on eating out this year? It's not difficult to track and visualize personal data points like these on pretty charts with little or no effort. Not only do personal info graphics give you insight into who you are and how you're spending your days, they can also help you make changes over time. Whether you want to to lose weight, save money, figure out where you're spending all your time, quit caffeine, or do more exercise—tracking your current habits is a great way to start. Let's take a look at a few good webapps out to help you graph your life.

Daytum

Designer Nicholas Felton has turned himself into the grandmaster of personal info graphics with his eye-popping Annual Report, in which he publishes beautiful charts of a wide array of data points about his life, from how many beers he drank during the year to how many digital photos he shot of his cat. To make that kind of personal metric-charting easy for everyone, Felton built the free webapp Daytum, "a home for collecting and communicating your daily data."

Take a spin through Daytum to see charts and lists of the most mundane details of people's lives, that, in aggregate, become fascinating. Felton's own Daytum account is a good place to start; registration is also open for you to start recording everything from how many miles you traveled this week to how many times your boss hovered over your cubicle clutching a cup of coffee. You can also add to your Daytum account on the go via Twitter direct messaging or using the mobile version of the site. On Daytum you can record and chart anything, not just the most obvious things people want charts for, like personal finance and weight-tracking, so its best use is for those wacky data points there isn't already a measurement-specific application for. Daytum chart by feltron.

Plodt

If you're already using Twitter to record facts about your daily life, take a gander at Plodt. While Plodt doesn't offer the variety of displays that Daytum does, it's easier to incorporate Plodt entry into an existing Twitter habit. Here's how it works: you include asterisks around a data point you want Plodt to chart into your Twitter status, and Plodt automatically picks it up and plops it on a chart. For example, your Twitter status might be:

OMG, that double cheeseburger looks so good *hunger 10* *willpower 2*

Plodt will pick up what's inside the asterisks and chart your hunger factor at 10 and willpower factor at 2. The downside: Plodt entries might make your Twitter updates look stranger to non-Plodt'ers. Plodt chart by amandahesser.

Habit-Specific Trackers

While not everyone wants such navel-gazey information as how many cups of coffee they drank last week, many people do want stats on things like their eating habits, weight changes, and yes, even web browsing—and so there are applications built to track those things specifically.

Web Browsing
We've already told you about MeeTimer, a Firefox extension that tracks your browsing history and habits. BBCer Roo Reynolds rolled up his sleeves and dug into the MeeTimer data to find out more about his most-frequented sites; check out a few good-looking charts he created for a birds-eye view of that data. Chart by Roo Reynolds (full story).

Of course you don't have to run another extension to see how often you visit sites in Firefox; here's a quick browsing history hack to get a list of what sites you've visited most often.

Similarly, apps like ManicTime for Windows (our review) or Slife for Windows or Mac (our review) tell you what applications you spend time in outside of the web browser.

Travel
While creating charts isn't its main purpose, travel web site TripIt compiles some interesting stats about where you've been and when. On sites like Daytum you'll see charts on where people have traveled and how far, but TripIt makes that data entry for long trips (like flights) easier. After you create an account, forward your flight confirmation email to plans@tripit.com and in addition to the other sharing and plan-organizing it does, TripIt will show you some cool stats about how far you've gone. (I was shocked to realize how many miles I've traveled by air or boat already in 2009, shown in the screenshot here.)

For drivers who want to track their MPG and gas purchases, check out previously-mentioned Fuelly, which creates lots of informative charts about your fuel consumption. See founder Matt Haughey's Fuelly page for a taste of Fuelly's charting capabilities.

Personal Finance
Personal finance apps are probably the oldest and most commonly-used software personal data trackers out there. We've already covered Lifehacker readers' picks of the best personal finance tools , and more specifically, the best web-based money managers. In a nutshell, Lifehacker readers love Mint. (Chart from Quicken Online.)

Nutrition and Fitness
Finally, webapps abound for tracking your exercise habits, weight loss progress, and calories consumed over time. Kevin's already taken you on a tour of tools for tracking your fitness progress. Our resident marathoner, Adam, likes web-based Traineo. Runners tempted by Nike+ with an iPhone should also check out Adam's rundown of how to roll your own Nike+ iPhone for free. Weight chart via the Traineo blog.


What are your favorite tools for capturing and charting personal metrics? Are you an old-school Excel user or do you have a favorite mobile-enabled webapp? Let us know in the comments.

Gina Trapani, Lifehacker's founding editor, can't get enough of navel-gazing charts. Her weekly feature, Smarterware, appears every Wednesday on Lifehacker. Subscribe to the Smarterware tag feed to get new installments in your newsreader.


 
 

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Five Best Journaling Tools

 
 

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via Lifehacker: Top by Jason Fitzpatrick on 5/10/09

Public declarations and diatribes have their place, but sometimes you need a private space for your thoughts, dreams, and ramblings. Whether you crave a digital or analog tool, you'll find it in this Hive Five.

Photo by Barnaby.

Earlier this week we asked you to share your favorite journaling tool. We've tallied the nominations and now we're back to share the top five journaling tools. This week's Hive Five is a mix of online and off, digital and analog, and a rather interesting sample of how Lifehacker readers like to record their thoughts for future reflection and posterity.

Microsoft Word (Windows/Mac, $99)

Many a person has started journaling by simply opening up the default word processor on their computer and setting to work. Microsoft Word is a fixture on hundreds of thousands of personal computers, and many Lifehacker readers found it more than adequate for their journaling endeavors. On top of creating documents in a commonly used format, most of us use Word at work and at home and are already quite familiar with the interface, formatting, and shortcuts. Being comfortable with your journaling tool of choice goes a long way towards encouraging you keep at it.

Pen and Paper (Analog, Variable Cost)

Long before people were pecking out their missives on typewriters, let alone keyboards, they were quietly scribbling them onto paper. In an age of instant sharing and easy digitization, many of you showed a strong affinity for recording your most private moments with the solidly analog and difficult to share medium: pen and paper. For many Lifehacker readers there is no substitute for the privacy and ease of use that comes with keeping an old fashioned paper-based journal. Among the variations of the pen and paper motif you submitted, readers showed a distinct passion for high-quality pens and Moleskine notebooks. Rich paper and smooth flowing ink is apparently the icing on the cake of analog journaling. Photo by MShades.

Microsoft OneNote (Windows, $99)

Designed as a sophisticated note taking tool, Microsoft OneNote can easily do double duty as a journaling tool. If you like to drop photos, music, and other media into your journal entries, the file integration of OneNote makes such journal keeping tricks a cinch. The app can also easily link together your journal entries by text links and tags. OneNote's Windows Mobile client and hand-writing recognition make it easy to record your thoughts during the day and dump them into your journal when you return home. If you're unfamiliar with OneNote, our review of OneNote 2007 is worth a peek.

Evernote (Windows/Mac, Free-to-$5/month)

Evernote is a wildly popular application for capturing and organizing all manner of information thanks to its trifecta of desktop application, web-based interface, and mobile client. For many readers, it makes sense to simply work their daily reflections into the tool they already have at their fingertips. If you're using Evernote as your personal journal, you can leverage the text recognition and tagging to make your journal entries available and easily search friendly. If you've avoided journaling because you consider it antiquated and hardly something a busy modern person takes the time for, Evernote makes it easy to write when you have the time, since it's almost always with you thanks to a web and mobile phone presence. The free account can easily handle basic journaling, but if you find yourself needing more storage or use of the multimedia functions, there is a $5 a month premium account.


WordPress (Web Based, Free)

While blogging is usually intended for a larger audience, many of you used blogging software to maintain a personal journal. Among the blogging tools used, WordPress was a clear favorite thanks to its ease of use, ability to keep entires completely private, and a free-as-in-beer price tag. Using blog software as your journal tool has several benefits: You can log into your journal from anywhere, tag your entries, use text and calendar-based search, and take advantage of WordPress's vast extensibility to customize and tweak your journal to include all the tools and information you desire. WordPress will run on your own web server (including your personal home web server), or you can sign up at WordPress.com for a basic account.

Now that you've had a chance to check out how your fellow readers journal, it's time to cast your vote to determine who will be quill-wielding king of the self reflection castle.


Which Journaling Tool is Best?(poll)

If you're aghast that your favorite method of journaling—cuneiform tablets anyone?—didn't make the Hive Five, or you've just got a great journaling tip burning a hole in your pocket, share your thoughts in the comments below.


 
 

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Google Calendar Integrates Tasks

 
 

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via Lifehacker: Top by Kevin Purdy on 5/13/09

Google Calendar went and made it official overnight, integrating the tasks list already present in a Gmail gadget, on mobile phones, and elsewhere into Google Calendar, both as a sidebar and a separate calendar.

Log into a Google Calendar account and you'll notice a new "Tasks" list under the left-hand top links, which opens up the tasks sidebar that should be familiar to users of the Gmail Labs Tasks feature. It's got the same basic indenting, deadline-setting, and basic sorting powers as the stand-alone and Gmail sidebar versions, which makes it a handy choice for those who live their digital lives inside Google's primary information apps.

You can create a new date-specific task by clicking on an empty date in the Month or All Day views and switching the top link over to "Task." Any task you set to particular deadline will show up in that day's agenda, which somewhat completes the feedback loop. It's still not quite a replacement for high-powered, contextually-driven to-do apps like Remember the Milk, but for the crowd that can get by just fine with simple text files or pens and paper, we have to imagine some basic email/calendar-integrated tasks are a fine little upgrade. For a full screenshot tour and detailed user tips, the Google Operating System blog is, as always, on the scene.

Google Calendar Adds Tasks [Google Operating System]

 
 

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