GETTING a mortgage has become a far trickier proposition these days with banks tightening up loan criteria, with some owners being asked to stump up more cash when values fall.
Loans of 80 or even 90 per cent of a property’s value are still possible, especially if the buyer intends to live in the home, but investors on their second or third property are finding it tougher.
The banks’ moves come amid a real estate market hit hard by the economic crisis. Prices have fallen and are continuing to fall, forcing lenders to aggressively re-assess their loan criteria.
Once common, loans of 80 per cent are less so these days. Maybank, for instance, is granting loans of up to 70 per cent of valuation prices for its latest home loan fixed rate package.
Ms Ally Yang, a chief mortgage consultant at www.homeloan.com.sg, told The Straits Times: ‘It is very difficult to get 90 per cent financing nowadays. The banks need to see all the savings the customers have, to see if they are sufficient for the 10 per cent down payment and 24 months of instalment payments.’
Unlike Singaporean owner-occupiers, most investors as well as non-taxpayers will be able to get only up to 70 per cent financing, compared with 80 per cent last year, said Ms Yang.
Banks are becoming more careful on the eligibility condition and are doing more checks even as they compete for the good customers, she said.
It is even harder for investors, who have to pay a higher interest rate on loans than an owner-occupier - perhaps an extra loading of 0.25 per cent on the standard package, she added.
The squeeze is also forcing some buyers of new properties to think hard about their purchases, with experts warning them against holding off too long on taking loans in case prices fall.
Some owners are already having to shell out cash to make up the shortfall between their purchase prices and the valuation now. Take a home that you agreed to buy for $1 million, with a 20 per cent deposit and the assumption of obtaining a loan for $800,000.
If the valuation falls to $900,000, the 80 per cent portion is now $720,000. So you need to chip in $80,000, in addition to your $200,000 deposit, to make up the $1 million purchase price.
It is standard practice for banks to engage independent valuers to determine the market value of properties.
However, most new launches do not have this problem. Frasers Centrepoint’s Caspian in Jurong, for instance, sold 517 units out of 600 launched units last month - quite a feat these days.
‘In today’s market, developers will not want to launch at a price that cannot be matched by the banks,’ said PropNex chief executive Mohamed Ismail.
Most developers will check with valuers to see if their prices can be supported before they launch their projects, said DTZ executive director Ong Choon Fah.
‘For most new launches, particularly projects aimed at upgraders, banks would be able to match their selling prices,’ agreed Knight Frank’s executive director of residential, Mr Peter Ow.
More developers are linking with banks to offer the interest absorption scheme. This lets buyers defer the bulk of the price until completion, provided he takes a loan at the point of sale. First-time buyer Brandon Goh took it up and got 80 per cent financing for his $693,000 unit at Caspian last month.
Mr Ow, who is marketing Double Bay Residences in Simei, said buyers in the project can even get up to 90 per cent financing from DBS.
HSBC clients can get loans of up to 90 per cent valuation if ‘their financial profile…meets the bank’s criteria’, said its head of personal financial services, Mr Sebastian Arcuri.
Given that the market may soften further, experts say buyers of newly launched properties should commit to a home loan now, rather than later.
Said Mr Ismail: ‘It is in the interest of the buyer to lock in the value of their property as soon as possible. Generally, the value at new launches will be matched by the banks, but not necessarily down the road.’
Source : Straits Times - 19 Mar 2009
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Some bleed from subsales but most come out ahead
Posted by luxuryasiahome on March 19, 2009
In a tough property year, an overwhelming 95 per cent of those who sold private apartments and condos in the subsale market last year had managed to turn a profit.
But the number of subsales that chalked up losses more than doubled from 24 in first-half last year to 52 in H2, reflecting the deteriorating market conditions, especially in the fourth quarter.
For those who took a loss, the average loss per unit also rose, from about $138,000 or 7 per cent in H1 2008 to $188,000 or 12 per cent in H2 2008.
But there were happy stories. One owner at The Sail, for instance, chalked up a gain of some $6.7 million after having held on to the property for about three years.
Savills Singapore’s analysis of caveats showed that the number of loss cases rose as 2008 rolled along, from six in Q1, increasing to 18 in Q2, and stabilising somewhat at 20 in Q3, before jumping to 32 in Q4.
‘There were more owners cutting losses in the subsale market in H2 2008, especially in Q4, following the Lehman fallout and the global meltdown. Sales trickled and more people sold at losses,’ said Savills director (investment) Steven Ming.
And while there was an increase in the number who suffered losses on their subsale deals, the number of subsales that produced profits fell 16.8 per cent from 757 in H1 to 630 in H2. The average subsale gain per unit shrank steadily through the year, sliding from $425,000 or 37 per cent in H1 to $288,000 or 28 per cent in H2.
On the whole, the finding was that it is more rewarding to hold one’s property for a longer period. On average, the biggest gains of $785,000 per unit were pocketed by those who bought in 2004 and sold in H2 last year, followed by those who had picked up their properties in 2005 and divested them in H1 last year, collecting an average gain of nearly $666,000.
The largest average loss of $210,000 was incurred by those who had bought in 2006 and sold in H1 2008.
Around 90 per cent of the 76 investors who suffered a loss in the subsale market for the whole of last year had bought their units in 2007 during the market peak.
Knight Frank executive director (residential) Peter Ow notes that usually an investor would cut losses in the subsale market when it is time to pay the developer. ‘An investor exposed to a few properties bought on deferred payment scheme (DPS) may want to cut losses on the first one or two to improve his cashflow so when it is time to pay up for the third one, he can afford it,’ he said.
Mr Ming points out that in addition to multiple property owners who may find it difficult to get sufficient bank loans to complete their acquisitions, those taking a hit in the subsale market may include ’savvy investors seeking to diversify their investments and allocating a part of the exposure to other undervalued asset classes’.
Savills calculated profit or loss as the difference between sale and purchase prices and did not take into account agent fees and other expenses. The analysis was based on a total 1,761 subsale deals of non-landed private homes captured in the URA Realis system as of March 9, 2009. Of these, it could trace and match previous caveat records for 1,463 units. Savills then compared the latest subsale price of each unit with the earlier price paid by the seller to work out the profit or loss.
Subsales, often seen as a gauge of speculative activity, are secondary market deals in projects that have yet to receive their Certificates of Statutory Completion. This may be anywhere from three to 12 months after the project receives Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP).
Savills’s analysis also showed that the proportion of subsales done below $1 million per unit rose from 38.3 per cent in H1 last year to 45.9 per cent in H2, as affordability became important.
Projects with the highest number of subsale transactions for 2008 were The Sail @ Marina Bay (78 units), Citylights (77 subsales), Varsity Park Condo (59 units), City Square Residences (57 units), The Sea View (52 units), The Esta (49 units) and Park Infinia at Wee Nam (48 units).
Some of these projects also saw the most number of subsale losses for the whole of 2008, for instance City Square Residences (six units), Citylights (four units) and The Sail (four units). In addition, The Cosmopolitan and Watermark Robertson Quay each had four subsale loss cases last year.
In H1 2008, Citylights saw the most subsales, at 60. In H2, The Sail was the top subsale project, with 40 units changing hands.
‘Anecdotally, there appears to be a higher number of subsales that take place for projects that were approaching TOP. For example, the 1,761 subsale transactions in 2008 included 52 projects that received TOP in the same year,’ Mr Ming said. Projects that obtained TOP in 2008 included The Sail, part of City Square Residences, The Sea View and The Cosmopolitan. Icon, City Lights and The Calrose were among the projects that received TOP in 2007.
Mr Ming said that with 10,000 homes expected to get TOP this year, ‘we expect subsale transactions to remain active and the sell pressure will keep up this year, unless debt markets open up and financing for investors eases’.
Source : Business Times - 19 Mar 2009
In a tough property year, an overwhelming 95 per cent of those who sold private apartments and condos in the subsale market last year had managed to turn a profit.
But the number of subsales that chalked up losses more than doubled from 24 in first-half last year to 52 in H2, reflecting the deteriorating market conditions, especially in the fourth quarter.
For those who took a loss, the average loss per unit also rose, from about $138,000 or 7 per cent in H1 2008 to $188,000 or 12 per cent in H2 2008.
But there were happy stories. One owner at The Sail, for instance, chalked up a gain of some $6.7 million after having held on to the property for about three years.
Savills Singapore’s analysis of caveats showed that the number of loss cases rose as 2008 rolled along, from six in Q1, increasing to 18 in Q2, and stabilising somewhat at 20 in Q3, before jumping to 32 in Q4.
‘There were more owners cutting losses in the subsale market in H2 2008, especially in Q4, following the Lehman fallout and the global meltdown. Sales trickled and more people sold at losses,’ said Savills director (investment) Steven Ming.
And while there was an increase in the number who suffered losses on their subsale deals, the number of subsales that produced profits fell 16.8 per cent from 757 in H1 to 630 in H2. The average subsale gain per unit shrank steadily through the year, sliding from $425,000 or 37 per cent in H1 to $288,000 or 28 per cent in H2.
On the whole, the finding was that it is more rewarding to hold one’s property for a longer period. On average, the biggest gains of $785,000 per unit were pocketed by those who bought in 2004 and sold in H2 last year, followed by those who had picked up their properties in 2005 and divested them in H1 last year, collecting an average gain of nearly $666,000.
The largest average loss of $210,000 was incurred by those who had bought in 2006 and sold in H1 2008.
Around 90 per cent of the 76 investors who suffered a loss in the subsale market for the whole of last year had bought their units in 2007 during the market peak.
Knight Frank executive director (residential) Peter Ow notes that usually an investor would cut losses in the subsale market when it is time to pay the developer. ‘An investor exposed to a few properties bought on deferred payment scheme (DPS) may want to cut losses on the first one or two to improve his cashflow so when it is time to pay up for the third one, he can afford it,’ he said.
Mr Ming points out that in addition to multiple property owners who may find it difficult to get sufficient bank loans to complete their acquisitions, those taking a hit in the subsale market may include ’savvy investors seeking to diversify their investments and allocating a part of the exposure to other undervalued asset classes’.
Savills calculated profit or loss as the difference between sale and purchase prices and did not take into account agent fees and other expenses. The analysis was based on a total 1,761 subsale deals of non-landed private homes captured in the URA Realis system as of March 9, 2009. Of these, it could trace and match previous caveat records for 1,463 units. Savills then compared the latest subsale price of each unit with the earlier price paid by the seller to work out the profit or loss.
Subsales, often seen as a gauge of speculative activity, are secondary market deals in projects that have yet to receive their Certificates of Statutory Completion. This may be anywhere from three to 12 months after the project receives Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP).
Savills’s analysis also showed that the proportion of subsales done below $1 million per unit rose from 38.3 per cent in H1 last year to 45.9 per cent in H2, as affordability became important.
Projects with the highest number of subsale transactions for 2008 were The Sail @ Marina Bay (78 units), Citylights (77 subsales), Varsity Park Condo (59 units), City Square Residences (57 units), The Sea View (52 units), The Esta (49 units) and Park Infinia at Wee Nam (48 units).
Some of these projects also saw the most number of subsale losses for the whole of 2008, for instance City Square Residences (six units), Citylights (four units) and The Sail (four units). In addition, The Cosmopolitan and Watermark Robertson Quay each had four subsale loss cases last year.
In H1 2008, Citylights saw the most subsales, at 60. In H2, The Sail was the top subsale project, with 40 units changing hands.
‘Anecdotally, there appears to be a higher number of subsales that take place for projects that were approaching TOP. For example, the 1,761 subsale transactions in 2008 included 52 projects that received TOP in the same year,’ Mr Ming said. Projects that obtained TOP in 2008 included The Sail, part of City Square Residences, The Sea View and The Cosmopolitan. Icon, City Lights and The Calrose were among the projects that received TOP in 2007.
Mr Ming said that with 10,000 homes expected to get TOP this year, ‘we expect subsale transactions to remain active and the sell pressure will keep up this year, unless debt markets open up and financing for investors eases’.
Source : Business Times - 19 Mar 2009
The Sail generates top gains in subsale deals
Posted by luxuryasiahome on March 19, 2009
TRANSACTIONS at The Sail @ Marina Bay last year topped the subsales deals that generated the highest gains, both in absolute as well as in percentage terms, a caveats analysis by Savills Singapore shows.
In absolute dollar terms, the biggest gain of $6.66 million was achieved for a unit above the 60th floor of the 99-year leasehold project. It was bought for $8.8 million or $1,508 psf in November 2005 from the project’s developer, and sold in the subsale market for $15.5 million or $2,650 psf in August last year.
The top percentage gain of 178 per cent was generated by a 49th floor unit at The Sail that was sold for $1.42 million or $2,400 psf in the subsale market in May last year. The seller had picked up the unit for $510,400 or $862 psf from the developer (a joint venture between City Developments and AIG) in December 2004.
Two other units at The Sail also yielded subsale profits of 176 per cent and 175 per cent; the sellers had bought their units from the developer.
In all, there were 74 instances of gains generated from subsale transactions at The Sail in 2008. Market watchers noted that this was because the project’s launch in two phases in 2004 and 2005 was ‘perfectly timed’ before residential property prices shot up in 2006 onwards.
As for subsale deals that produced losses last year, the biggest loss in absolute quantum, $1.03 million, was suffered for a unit around the 20th floor at Scotts Square. It was sold in November last year for $3.7 million or $3,050 psf; the seller had bought it up in the primary market in August 2007 for nearly $4.8 million or $3,890 psf.
The largest percentage loss (36 per cent) was incurred by the owner of a 26th floor unit at Tribeca on Kim Seng Road who had paid the developer $885,800 or $1,553 psf in February 2007 and sold his unit at $570,000 or $999 psf in December last year.
Looking ahead, Savills Singapore director Steven Ming said: ‘It’s reasonable to expect that subsale losses may increase this year, unless macro and global economic problems are ironed out and financing eases,’ he added.
Knight Frank executive director (residential) Peter Ow notes that what would usually make an investor cut losses in the subsale market is when it is time to pay up the developer. ‘An investor exposed to a few properties he has bought on deferred payment scheme may want to cut losses on the first one or two to improve his cashflow, so that when it is time to pay up for the third one, he can afford it,’ he added.
In the event that a buyer has difficulty getting a bank loan and footing the bill for a chunk of the purchase price to the developer when the project receives Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP), some developers may be prepared to repudiate the sale and purchase agreement and forfeit the 20 per cent initial payment collected from the buyer and proceed to resell the unit.
But other developers may sue the buyers and force them to complete the sale and purchase agreement at the contracted price. ‘Most buyers wouldn’t want to take the risk of defaulting because they don’t know the position of the developer and risk being sued and even bankrupted,’ Mr Ow said.
For projects completing in 2011/2012, most investors will tend to hold their units as there is a possibility of a property market recovery, he predicts. ‘But for projects receiving TOP, say, this year, investors will have to weigh risks of whether they have the financial means to pay up. If not, it may be better to cut loss,’ Mr Ow said.
Mr Ow estimates that most investors would be prepared to cut a loss of up to 20 per cent on their purchase price (assuming they have already paid an initial 20 per cent to the developer) since they will then not have to take a further hit.
However, if they subsell the property at, say, 70 per cent of their purchase price, they would have to fork out a further 10 per cent to the developer before the developer agrees to transfer the title to the new buyer.
Source : Business Times - 19 Mar 2009
TRANSACTIONS at The Sail @ Marina Bay last year topped the subsales deals that generated the highest gains, both in absolute as well as in percentage terms, a caveats analysis by Savills Singapore shows.
In absolute dollar terms, the biggest gain of $6.66 million was achieved for a unit above the 60th floor of the 99-year leasehold project. It was bought for $8.8 million or $1,508 psf in November 2005 from the project’s developer, and sold in the subsale market for $15.5 million or $2,650 psf in August last year.
The top percentage gain of 178 per cent was generated by a 49th floor unit at The Sail that was sold for $1.42 million or $2,400 psf in the subsale market in May last year. The seller had picked up the unit for $510,400 or $862 psf from the developer (a joint venture between City Developments and AIG) in December 2004.
Two other units at The Sail also yielded subsale profits of 176 per cent and 175 per cent; the sellers had bought their units from the developer.
In all, there were 74 instances of gains generated from subsale transactions at The Sail in 2008. Market watchers noted that this was because the project’s launch in two phases in 2004 and 2005 was ‘perfectly timed’ before residential property prices shot up in 2006 onwards.
As for subsale deals that produced losses last year, the biggest loss in absolute quantum, $1.03 million, was suffered for a unit around the 20th floor at Scotts Square. It was sold in November last year for $3.7 million or $3,050 psf; the seller had bought it up in the primary market in August 2007 for nearly $4.8 million or $3,890 psf.
The largest percentage loss (36 per cent) was incurred by the owner of a 26th floor unit at Tribeca on Kim Seng Road who had paid the developer $885,800 or $1,553 psf in February 2007 and sold his unit at $570,000 or $999 psf in December last year.
Looking ahead, Savills Singapore director Steven Ming said: ‘It’s reasonable to expect that subsale losses may increase this year, unless macro and global economic problems are ironed out and financing eases,’ he added.
Knight Frank executive director (residential) Peter Ow notes that what would usually make an investor cut losses in the subsale market is when it is time to pay up the developer. ‘An investor exposed to a few properties he has bought on deferred payment scheme may want to cut losses on the first one or two to improve his cashflow, so that when it is time to pay up for the third one, he can afford it,’ he added.
In the event that a buyer has difficulty getting a bank loan and footing the bill for a chunk of the purchase price to the developer when the project receives Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP), some developers may be prepared to repudiate the sale and purchase agreement and forfeit the 20 per cent initial payment collected from the buyer and proceed to resell the unit.
But other developers may sue the buyers and force them to complete the sale and purchase agreement at the contracted price. ‘Most buyers wouldn’t want to take the risk of defaulting because they don’t know the position of the developer and risk being sued and even bankrupted,’ Mr Ow said.
For projects completing in 2011/2012, most investors will tend to hold their units as there is a possibility of a property market recovery, he predicts. ‘But for projects receiving TOP, say, this year, investors will have to weigh risks of whether they have the financial means to pay up. If not, it may be better to cut loss,’ Mr Ow said.
Mr Ow estimates that most investors would be prepared to cut a loss of up to 20 per cent on their purchase price (assuming they have already paid an initial 20 per cent to the developer) since they will then not have to take a further hit.
However, if they subsell the property at, say, 70 per cent of their purchase price, they would have to fork out a further 10 per cent to the developer before the developer agrees to transfer the title to the new buyer.
Source : Business Times - 19 Mar 2009
The Dow's Bearing — 6,000 and Under
Monday, 2 Mar 2009
Posted By: Daryl Guppy
February was a chilly month for U.S. equities. And March is looking even worse. It looks like a recession is the only thing roaring this month.
On Monday, U.S. stocks plunged with the major indexes closing at their lowest levels in more than a decade as more government intervention in the financial sector was interpreted as an ominous sign for shareholders of Citigroup.
CLICK HERE TO SEE FULL CHART
General Electric, a major manufacturer and lender, continued its decline as the stock, once a stalwart for even the most conservative of portfolios, sold off to levels associated with distressed "fallen angels."
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 299.64 points, or 4.24% percent, to 6763.29, its lowest close since April 25, 1997, and the first close below 7,000 since May 1, 1997. We feel this warrants another look at the DJIA chart.
The most dangerous chart pattern in a bear market is the down sloping triangle triangle. This pattern is seen in the Dow Jones Index and it sets a downside target near 5,600. The rapid fall below 7,000 confirms this target objective.
This chart pattern includes a well defined support level near 7,800. Over the last five months the rally rebounds from support near 7,800 have developed a pattern of declining highs. The failure of the early 2009 January rally near 9,000 established a second calculation point for a new down sloping trend line. The first calculation point for the trend line was set by the rally peak near 9,600 in 2008 November.
A new downtrend line is drawn and this creates a down sloping triangle. In a bear market the strength of the pattern is increased. The first feature to measure with this pattern is the height of the triangle. The four day triangle base starts on 2008, October 7, with the drop from near 10,000 to 7,800. The triangle height is around 2,200 points.
Chart pattern analysis provides the most reliable analysis method in this type of market situation. Technical oscillators which measure sentiment in the market are stuck on extreme readings and provide little guidance about trend continuation.
Using chart pattern analysis, the downside target for the Dow Jones Index is near 5,600. This target is verified against historical support levels for the Dow. Historically there is a support level near 7,500 but this has been decisively broken.
The long term historical support level is a narrow trading band between 5,500 and 5,600. In a bear market it is the bottom of the trading band that is tested for support.
This combination of factors suggests there is a high probability the market will quickly fall towards support between 5,500 and 5,600. This is a fall of more than 50 percent from the peak of the Index in 2007, October at 14,198. This degree of fall is similar to the degree of fall in 1929 when the America market collapsed and developed the world depression.
The end of this triangle pattern develops near the end of 2009, April. There is a high probability the America market will develop a continuation of the downtrend with a slow move towards support near 5,600. The key feature will be the nature of any consolidation pattern that develops near 5,500 to 5,600.
Posted By: Daryl Guppy
February was a chilly month for U.S. equities. And March is looking even worse. It looks like a recession is the only thing roaring this month.
On Monday, U.S. stocks plunged with the major indexes closing at their lowest levels in more than a decade as more government intervention in the financial sector was interpreted as an ominous sign for shareholders of Citigroup.
CLICK HERE TO SEE FULL CHART
General Electric, a major manufacturer and lender, continued its decline as the stock, once a stalwart for even the most conservative of portfolios, sold off to levels associated with distressed "fallen angels."
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 299.64 points, or 4.24% percent, to 6763.29, its lowest close since April 25, 1997, and the first close below 7,000 since May 1, 1997. We feel this warrants another look at the DJIA chart.
The most dangerous chart pattern in a bear market is the down sloping triangle triangle. This pattern is seen in the Dow Jones Index and it sets a downside target near 5,600. The rapid fall below 7,000 confirms this target objective.
This chart pattern includes a well defined support level near 7,800. Over the last five months the rally rebounds from support near 7,800 have developed a pattern of declining highs. The failure of the early 2009 January rally near 9,000 established a second calculation point for a new down sloping trend line. The first calculation point for the trend line was set by the rally peak near 9,600 in 2008 November.
A new downtrend line is drawn and this creates a down sloping triangle. In a bear market the strength of the pattern is increased. The first feature to measure with this pattern is the height of the triangle. The four day triangle base starts on 2008, October 7, with the drop from near 10,000 to 7,800. The triangle height is around 2,200 points.
Chart pattern analysis provides the most reliable analysis method in this type of market situation. Technical oscillators which measure sentiment in the market are stuck on extreme readings and provide little guidance about trend continuation.
Using chart pattern analysis, the downside target for the Dow Jones Index is near 5,600. This target is verified against historical support levels for the Dow. Historically there is a support level near 7,500 but this has been decisively broken.
The long term historical support level is a narrow trading band between 5,500 and 5,600. In a bear market it is the bottom of the trading band that is tested for support.
This combination of factors suggests there is a high probability the market will quickly fall towards support between 5,500 and 5,600. This is a fall of more than 50 percent from the peak of the Index in 2007, October at 14,198. This degree of fall is similar to the degree of fall in 1929 when the America market collapsed and developed the world depression.
The end of this triangle pattern develops near the end of 2009, April. There is a high probability the America market will develop a continuation of the downtrend with a slow move towards support near 5,600. The key feature will be the nature of any consolidation pattern that develops near 5,500 to 5,600.
中国股市依然机会多多
查看评论www.cnfol.com 2008年11月24日 08:21 深圳商报
本报记者日前从深圳金融博览会证券投资论坛了解到，目前市场一些专家级高手对A股后市看法乐观。与多个国家的股市相比较，中国A股市场依然机会多多。 李新京：目前A股正震荡筑底 新加坡NEXTVIEW投资公司总裁李新京最近到美国、日本、韩国、越南、印度了解当地股市，并参与了这些市场的证券交易，他在证券投资论坛向与会者感叹：还是中国股市机会更多。他说，目前应该是震荡筑底阶段，机会很多。熊市中的反弹急涨缓跌，这对短线炒家十分有利。他透露，目前境外很多投资者都想进入中国市场，这从另一方面说明了A股的吸引力。 李新京原是深圳的证券分析师，被新加坡“挖”走后，仍一直参加国内证券投资。他说自己经过近20年的观察，发现中国股市以120日均线为基准平均线。只有当这条线向上翘起，才是买股票做中线投资的好机会。根据李新京的理论，上证指数今年年内突破2500点的机会极小，而且，美国金融危机的危害程度可能超过很多人的预期，另外，大小非问题也制约着中国股市长期的发展，现在到明年春节前不可能有大行情。 李新京说，现在即便大盘站上2300点也是弱市。而如果到明年2月前不跌破1450点，MACD指标不出现死叉，这个市场就没有走坏。如果明年2月前能维持在2000点，120日均线走平后开始向上，市场就会比较强，后市将可以看好。 李新京主张在目前市况下进行被动投资，根据均线指标决定买卖行为。不管阻力、支撑在哪里，只要均线指标MACD、RSI出现金叉就买入，出现向下趋势就卖出。他说自己考察了种种技术分析方法，还是认为均线指标最有效。因为市场上多数人都依靠均线指标进行操作，因此均线指标代表了市场上多数人的看法，一旦指标向好，投资者、投机者就信心倍增蜂拥而入，一旦向坏就悲观恐惧争相出逃，因此股价、指数的波动都非常符合规律。 李新京还表示，从现在到年报出来以前，投资者应担心年报地雷，一些上市公司受金融危机影响造成的亏损，会在年报中暴露出来。 顾比：A股正处圆弧底底部
澳大利亚籍技术分析师戴若·顾比认为，现在A股仍是一个困难的市场，频繁操作失败率很高。在很大程度上，市场是不可预测的，对所有投资者而言，关注自己的行为更重要。他告诫投资者永远不要用全部资金投入股市，每笔投资的失败，其亏损额不应该超过总资产的2％，这是自我保护的重要原则。 顾比参与中国股市多年，他认为比起美国、澳大利亚股市，中国股市大盘指数的圆弧底形态非常可靠，而现在正是圆弧底的底部，投资者宜顺势而为。 顾比预计，现在到年底A股都是一个筑底行情，春节后将有一波快速上涨
本报记者日前从深圳金融博览会证券投资论坛了解到，目前市场一些专家级高手对A股后市看法乐观。与多个国家的股市相比较，中国A股市场依然机会多多。 李新京：目前A股正震荡筑底 新加坡NEXTVIEW投资公司总裁李新京最近到美国、日本、韩国、越南、印度了解当地股市，并参与了这些市场的证券交易，他在证券投资论坛向与会者感叹：还是中国股市机会更多。他说，目前应该是震荡筑底阶段，机会很多。熊市中的反弹急涨缓跌，这对短线炒家十分有利。他透露，目前境外很多投资者都想进入中国市场，这从另一方面说明了A股的吸引力。 李新京原是深圳的证券分析师，被新加坡“挖”走后，仍一直参加国内证券投资。他说自己经过近20年的观察，发现中国股市以120日均线为基准平均线。只有当这条线向上翘起，才是买股票做中线投资的好机会。根据李新京的理论，上证指数今年年内突破2500点的机会极小，而且，美国金融危机的危害程度可能超过很多人的预期，另外，大小非问题也制约着中国股市长期的发展，现在到明年春节前不可能有大行情。 李新京说，现在即便大盘站上2300点也是弱市。而如果到明年2月前不跌破1450点，MACD指标不出现死叉，这个市场就没有走坏。如果明年2月前能维持在2000点，120日均线走平后开始向上，市场就会比较强，后市将可以看好。 李新京主张在目前市况下进行被动投资，根据均线指标决定买卖行为。不管阻力、支撑在哪里，只要均线指标MACD、RSI出现金叉就买入，出现向下趋势就卖出。他说自己考察了种种技术分析方法，还是认为均线指标最有效。因为市场上多数人都依靠均线指标进行操作，因此均线指标代表了市场上多数人的看法，一旦指标向好，投资者、投机者就信心倍增蜂拥而入，一旦向坏就悲观恐惧争相出逃，因此股价、指数的波动都非常符合规律。 李新京还表示，从现在到年报出来以前，投资者应担心年报地雷，一些上市公司受金融危机影响造成的亏损，会在年报中暴露出来。 顾比：A股正处圆弧底底部
澳大利亚籍技术分析师戴若·顾比认为，现在A股仍是一个困难的市场，频繁操作失败率很高。在很大程度上，市场是不可预测的，对所有投资者而言，关注自己的行为更重要。他告诫投资者永远不要用全部资金投入股市，每笔投资的失败，其亏损额不应该超过总资产的2％，这是自我保护的重要原则。 顾比参与中国股市多年，他认为比起美国、澳大利亚股市，中国股市大盘指数的圆弧底形态非常可靠，而现在正是圆弧底的底部，投资者宜顺势而为。 顾比预计，现在到年底A股都是一个筑底行情，春节后将有一波快速上涨
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Asian budget airlines launch price war
SINGAPORE (AFP) — Asian low-cost airlines are offering dirt-cheap tickets to perk up travel during the summer holidays amid the global economic downturn.
Singapore-based Tiger Airways, which flies to destinations in Southeast Asia, Australia and China, announced Tuesday it would launch summer fares starting at about 16 US dollars, including taxes.
The carrier, which is 49 percent owned by Singapore Airlines, said in a statement it would offer its "biggest ever network of seats" and was adding new destinations for its summer schedule from March 29 to October 24.
"Tiger Airways is bucking the global aviation trend," the airline said, referring to declining passenger numbers for full-service carriers worldwide.
Rosalynn Tay, managing director for Tiger Airways Singapore, said the airline would "demonstrate that we will continue to grow our business even in these difficult trading conditions."
Jetstar Asia, another Singapore-based budget airline, said it had extended until August 16 a promotion to beat the cheapest price offered by rivals.
Under the promotion, should a traveller find another published online fare cheaper than the lowest available on www.jetstar.com, the airline will beat the price by 10 percent if the customer makes an instant reservation by phone.
"The current economy makes it a tough operating environment where competition will be intense and fares will be under pressure," Jetstar Asia's commercial head Leslie Ng said in a statement.
"People are going for cheaper fares as they become more cost conscious and want to get value for money deals."
Malaysian budget airline AirAsia also has its "take me away" promotion.
Among its offers is a one-way flight from Singapore to Bangkok starting from 43 dollars, inclusive of taxes, for travel from March 23 to September 11, according to its website.
Comparatively, a return flight to Bangkok on Singapore Airlines costs 337 dollars, inclusive of taxes.
AirAsia is also offering a number of tickets starting from 26 cents for travel within Malaysia.
Indonesia's Lion Air is selling a one-way trip from Singapore to Bali for as low as 5.80 dollars for travel from June 1 to September 30, according to its website.
Thailand's Nok Air is offering one-way fares for as low as 25 cents, excluding taxes and fees, for domestic flights for those travelling from May 15 to September 30, its website showed.
Copyright © 2009 AFP. All rights reserved嘉德置地
（2009-03-18） ● 银 本栏今年元月30日论及这股票若于元月底未能在3.11元之上闭市，则其每月一杆图将出现“主要转向”讯号，这么一来，向下跌穿2.28元而迅速滑落就顺理成章了。果然，股价于元月30日仅以1.99元闭市，过后虽尝试回升，并于2月16日一度试2.35元仍无法摆脱下跌厄运。3月3日股价下试1.70元且以1.85元闭市，遂成“一日转向”讯号，截至16日已升至2.16元。估计短期回扯或将填补介于2.00元至1.96元间的缺口，过后将续升，因为一个技术回弹的时刻已经到来了。而本月底若能在1.98元让闭市，那就顺理成章了。
Small flats, big sellers
Posted by luxuryasiahome on March 15, 2009
What do you call a space which can fit four hawker stalls?
In the case of a new property development called Kembangan Suites, the space is called a one-bedroom apartment.
It is all of 344 sq ft.
Crowds flocked to a preview of condominium Domus on Friday. Its smallest units are 474 sq ft. — ST PHOTO: JOSEPH NAIR FOR THE SUNDAY TIMES
But small is now big. On just the first day of a preview last week, the developer sold out 60 units of mostly one- and two-bedders ranging in size from 344 sq ft to 581 sq ft.
The smallest units were going for about $300,000.
Industry sources said demand is coming from local and foreign singles, young couples as well as cost-conscious buyers and investors.
Before that, Alexis @ Alexandra sold all its 293 units, including 114 one-bedders (366 sq ft to 527 sq ft), with prices from $450,000.
Other new launches like Mount Sophia Suites in Sophia Road, Nova 88 in Bhamo Road and Zenith in Zion Road are offering studio apartments or one-bedders from 366 sq ft to 484 sq ft.
Crowds flocked to a preview on Friday of new condominium Domus in Irrawaddy Road. The smallest units there - one-bedders at 474 sq ft each - were going for more than $400,000.
Its developer, Lakeview Investments, said those were the most popular and all units released in the first phase had been sold.
‘It’s the size of a hotel room,’ veteran designer Jay Ang said of the new 300-something sq ft homes.
‘You have space only to sleep and eat. There’s definitely no place to entertain,’ noted the specialist in space planning and storage space customising.
But while there are no rules on how small apartments can go, designers and architects have to make concessions for standard dimensions, like how wide a door is, how long a bed is or how deep a wardrobe is.
Developers have quickly cottoned on to this demand for small spaces. Several have rejigged or are considering tweaking their designs and making space for smaller units.
Sing Holdings’ project The Laurels in Cairnhill Road will go from its original 150 units of mostly three- and four-bedders to 290 units that include more one- and two-bedroom units.
UOL Group may also resize the units of its Green Meadows project in Upper Thomson to attract more cost-conscious buyers.
Alexis’ developer, ECPrime, had done the same before the project’s launch.
City Developments said studio apartments in centrally located projects had always been popular because of the lure of city-living.
Studio apartments comprised almost 40 per cent of the offerings at its downtown project, The Sail @ Marina Bay, which was completed last year.
Carving up space for more units is one way a developer can achieve higher dollar per square foot value, said Mr Nicholas Mak, director of research and consultancy at Knight Frank.
‘Developers manage to sell such small units because they make it affordable in absolute terms,’ he said.
But, property pundits said, when apartments continue to shrink and prices per square feet remain high, home-seekers may go back to buying HDB flats and those looking to rent may decide to go for HDB rooms instead.
The size of private one-bedroom units has halved from 10 years ago.
HDB flats have downsized too, from about 1,130 sq ft for a four-room in 1987 to 970 sq ft now.
Still, Singapore homes have not shrunk to the proportions of those in Hong Kong and Tokyo, where apartments can be as tiny as 140 sq ft.
That is not to say that all buyers are happy with the slimming effect.
Finance executive Audrey Yap, 35, who is shopping for a bachelorette pad, said: ‘I can’t afford the bigger apartments but the studio apartments are ridiculously small and claustrophobic. I think I may have to settle for a resale HDB flat.’
Source : Sunday Times - 15 Mar 2009
TOP chance to pick up condo bargains
Posted by luxuryasiahome on March 15, 2009
Buyers now have more choices as launches return to the market. There is also no lack of supply in the secondary market, where more projects - including several big ones - will obtain temporary occupation permits (TOPs) by the end of this year.
Speculators who bought units at The Sail may want to sell them now. — LIANHE ZAOBAO FILE PHOTO
The sellers of projects yet to obtain TOP are often short-term investors, and in this present climate some may offer real bargains if they have an urgent need to offload their properties, experts said.
A project’s TOP date is when those who had bought on deferred payment will have to pay for the bulk of the purchase price.
The deferred payment scheme was seen as encouraging speculation as buyers could profit by reselling their homes before the TOP date without much capital outlay. It was scrapped in late 2007.
‘Most times, those who bought on deferred payment are usually the investors,’ said Mr Colin Tan, Chesterton Suntec International’s head of research and consultancy.
Although not many bargains have surfaced, more could come, experts said. The 104 caveats lodged in the first two months of this year - for projects that have yet to obtain TOP - showed prices are coming down, but only gradually, said Mr Tan, citing Urban Redevelopment Authority data.
Of the 104 deals, 24 were for City Square Residences at $664 per sq ft (psf) to $911 psf, compared with its starting price of $560 psf in 2005. Another 20 deals were done at The Centris at between $427 psf and $639 psf, compared with its 2006 launch price of $550 psf.
Singapore bankers are reluctant to repossess properties when property prices have not fallen steeply, Mr Tan said. ‘As Singapore is still not in ‘deep recession’ - although we are moving towards it - these investors are able to rent out their properties and collect rent,’ he said. ‘So long as banks are receiving some kind of payment, they are not willing to force the issue.’
Mr Tan said he foresees a gradual decline in property prices for the next three to four months. The shrinking rental market may have a greater impact on the market thereafter, he added. ‘For those waiting for ‘bargains’, you’ll have to be patient and wait a little longer,’ he advised. ‘At the moment, while the rental market is declining, it is still some 15 to 20 per cent higher than before the run-up in the market.’
A property expert, who declined to be named, said: ‘Buyers may want to look at projects where there is a great deal of speculative element, such as Marina Bay Residences and The Sail, where many people went in blindly. Some of them may now want to let go of their units.’
So far this year, two high-floor Marina Bay Residences units were sold in January at $1,528 psf and $1,638 psf, while two units at The Coast at Sentosa Cove were sold last month at $1,250 psf and $1,500 psf.
Back in late 2006, Marina Bay Residences was sold out in three days at an average apartment price of $1,850 psf or up to more than $2,700 psf, while The Coast initially sold for $1,500 psf on average.
This year, the bigger projects that are expected to obtain TOP include The Centris in Jurong West and Casa Merah in Tanah Merah.
In the Amber Road area where many new developments were launched in the past few years, One Amber will obtain TOP by year end. It will join two recently completed big condos, The Esta and The Sea View, and a few others under construction.
In Balestier, UOL Group said it expects the 180-unit Pavilion 11 in Minbu Road to obtain TOP in the second half of the year.
The 53-unit The Centrio in Irrawaddy Road - launched in May 2007 at $1,025 psf - is also expected to do so by the end of the year.
A nearby project, the 151-unit Montebleu, launched in March 2007 at $980 psf, will obtain TOP early next year. At the same time, there are new launches in Balestier, including The Mezzo and Domus.
In the prime area, Hiap Hoe expects to obtain TOP for its 46-unit Cuscaden Royale by the end of the year or early next year.
‘TOP projects are much sought after by owner-occupiers because buyers can move in immediately into a brand-new property,’ said Ms Kellie Liew, executive director of projects at HSR property group.
Prices in quite a few of these projects, such as Southbank, have dropped a fair bit, she said.
Southbank in North Bridge Road will obtain TOP next year. So will The Riverine by the Park nearby.
Savills Residential director Phylicia Ang said the secondary market will have bargains but they may not be easy to spot. Those with little time to spare may find new launches a better bet, she said.
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
海皇轮船 2/2/07 13/3/09
（2009-03-17） ● 银 本栏于去年11月11日曾论及这只股票短期内三波向上回扯，或将填补介于1.43元至1.46元间的缺口，再向下试0.77元的支撑线。当时股价为1.29元左右。可是股价竟回扯乏力反而渐渐下跌，11月21日一度下试0.93元，并于当天以“主要转向”讯号回升。12月11日股价曾升试1.37元，可惜仍然无法填补上述缺口就进入横摆走势。今年3月10日股价终于跌穿上述的0.93元，12日更下试0.85元，幸好当天以“转向”讯号闭市，估计股价将出现短暂的回扯，至于是否能升逾1.22元的阻力线将是关键了。
我国去年近1万7000人被裁 创五年新高 仅次于沙斯期间
（2009-03-17） ● 李静仪 全球经济急转直下，我国去年共有1万6880名员工被裁退或被提前终止合约，人数是五年来的新高。其中以专业人员、经理、执行人员及技师(PMET)的增幅最显著。
此外，有更多本地失业者找工作超过6个月仍没办法成功。而失业的大学毕业生，也增加了一倍以上。
人力部昨天公布了2008年劳动市场报告。
去年共造就了22万1600份新工作，增幅是8.1%。当中有6万4700个职位由本地人填补，其余15万6900个是外国人代劳。
截至去年12月，我国总就业人数达295万人，本地人占了64%，共189万4700人；外国人36%，共105万7700人。
报告显示，去年最后一季被裁及提前被解约的员工达9410个，远比第三季的3180人高。
去年全年约有1万3920名员工被公司裁退，提前被解约的则有2970人。其中被裁人数紧次于2003年沙斯来袭时的1万6400人，是过去五年来的最高纪录。
被裁退者当中，PMET占了37%（1年前的比例是31%），人数从去年第三季的950人激增到最后一季的3790个，全年共有6200名PMET员工被裁或提前解约。
值得注意的是，1998年亚洲金融危机时，被解雇的PMET人员仅占总解雇人数19%，当时受影响的主要是与生产线相关的员工。
受金融海啸冲击，我国经济从去年9月开始直线下滑，但因为去年上半年劳工市场表现强劲，还是为全年带来了8.1%的就业增长，共增加22万1600个新职位，虽然这比前年的23万4900份新工作或9.4%的增幅逊色。去年最后一季仅出现2万1300份新工作，还不到第三季5万5700份新工作的一半，而和2007年第四季的6万2500份新工作相比，更是天渊之别。 报告也显示，去年各行各业的就业情况都迅速恶化，当中以制造业最严峻。制造业在去年第四季减了7000份工作，是这领域自2003年第三季以来，首次出现缩减。
制造业所流失的工作主要是在电子产品和交通器材方面。全年来说，制造业创造了1万9500份新工作，不到前年（4万9300份）的一半。
大学毕业生失业
增加了一倍以上
服务业去年也只增加了13万6400份新工作，比前年少了6700份。只有建筑业逆流而上，所增添的新工作比前年多出2万多份，共6万4000份。
总的来说，中学教育程度以下的失业者还是占大多数，共有2万1300人（31%），他们大多在40岁以上。不过，令人关注的是，有更多大学毕业生加入失业大军，从前年底的6200人（14%）激增到去年底的1万4800人（21%），增加了一倍以上。
截至去年12月，求职超过6个月仍无法找到工作的本地人，从前年的8700人增加到去年12月的1万2900人。而职位空缺共有2万6100个，比去年9月减少将近三成。
人力部指出，随着更多雇主预计接下来半年的经商环境会进一步恶化，下来的就业市场预料也不容乐观。
此外，有更多本地失业者找工作超过6个月仍没办法成功。而失业的大学毕业生，也增加了一倍以上。
人力部昨天公布了2008年劳动市场报告。
去年共造就了22万1600份新工作，增幅是8.1%。当中有6万4700个职位由本地人填补，其余15万6900个是外国人代劳。
截至去年12月，我国总就业人数达295万人，本地人占了64%，共189万4700人；外国人36%，共105万7700人。
报告显示，去年最后一季被裁及提前被解约的员工达9410个，远比第三季的3180人高。
去年全年约有1万3920名员工被公司裁退，提前被解约的则有2970人。其中被裁人数紧次于2003年沙斯来袭时的1万6400人，是过去五年来的最高纪录。
被裁退者当中，PMET占了37%（1年前的比例是31%），人数从去年第三季的950人激增到最后一季的3790个，全年共有6200名PMET员工被裁或提前解约。
值得注意的是，1998年亚洲金融危机时，被解雇的PMET人员仅占总解雇人数19%，当时受影响的主要是与生产线相关的员工。
受金融海啸冲击，我国经济从去年9月开始直线下滑，但因为去年上半年劳工市场表现强劲，还是为全年带来了8.1%的就业增长，共增加22万1600个新职位，虽然这比前年的23万4900份新工作或9.4%的增幅逊色。去年最后一季仅出现2万1300份新工作，还不到第三季5万5700份新工作的一半，而和2007年第四季的6万2500份新工作相比，更是天渊之别。 报告也显示，去年各行各业的就业情况都迅速恶化，当中以制造业最严峻。制造业在去年第四季减了7000份工作，是这领域自2003年第三季以来，首次出现缩减。
制造业所流失的工作主要是在电子产品和交通器材方面。全年来说，制造业创造了1万9500份新工作，不到前年（4万9300份）的一半。
大学毕业生失业
增加了一倍以上
服务业去年也只增加了13万6400份新工作，比前年少了6700份。只有建筑业逆流而上，所增添的新工作比前年多出2万多份，共6万4000份。
总的来说，中学教育程度以下的失业者还是占大多数，共有2万1300人（31%），他们大多在40岁以上。不过，令人关注的是，有更多大学毕业生加入失业大军，从前年底的6200人（14%）激增到去年底的1万4800人（21%），增加了一倍以上。
截至去年12月，求职超过6个月仍无法找到工作的本地人，从前年的8700人增加到去年12月的1万2900人。而职位空缺共有2万6100个，比去年9月减少将近三成。
人力部指出，随着更多雇主预计接下来半年的经商环境会进一步恶化，下来的就业市场预料也不容乐观。
接受调查经济师预测 我国经济有望在第四季复苏
（2009-03-17）
● 何丽丽 经济师预料我国经济将有望在第四季出现复苏，然后明年取得全年增长，但复苏前的经济衰退将比原先预料中的还要严重。
经济师预测，我国经济今年全年将萎缩4.9％，这与他们三个月前所预测的萎缩1％相比，显示经济师的近期经济展望明显更加悲观。
经济师也预测，我国经济今年第一季、第二季和第三季将分别出现8.5％、6.9％和4.6％的萎缩，第四季可恢复到0.5％的增长，2010年全年则料可增长3.3％。
渣打银行经济师柳天成表示，若我国经济今年第一季果真萎缩8.5％，那将会是自1976年，有关当局发布季度经济增长数据以来，最大幅度的同比季度萎缩。
新加坡金融管理局是每三个月向经济师展开调查，收集他们对经济前景的看法。最新的调查在2月下旬进行，该局向22名经济师发出问卷，共有20名经济师答复问卷。这项调查纯属经济师的看法，并不代表金管局的立场。
调查结果显示，经济师对全年经济增长的预测中位数是萎缩4.9％，而最可能出现的局面是萎缩5％到5.9％之间。
由于全球经济突告恶化，我国经济表现也急转直下，贸工部1月21日宣布再调低今年全年的经济增长预测，从原本的萎缩2％至1％增长，调低到萎缩2％至5％，显示我国有可能陷入自1965年独立以来最糟的经济衰退期。
我国去年第四季的国内生产总值萎缩了4.2％，全年增长也只得1.1％，经济放缓程度超出经济师的预料，这次答复问卷的经济师对今年所作的经济增长预测也相应调低。
● 何丽丽 经济师预料我国经济将有望在第四季出现复苏，然后明年取得全年增长，但复苏前的经济衰退将比原先预料中的还要严重。
经济师预测，我国经济今年全年将萎缩4.9％，这与他们三个月前所预测的萎缩1％相比，显示经济师的近期经济展望明显更加悲观。
经济师也预测，我国经济今年第一季、第二季和第三季将分别出现8.5％、6.9％和4.6％的萎缩，第四季可恢复到0.5％的增长，2010年全年则料可增长3.3％。
渣打银行经济师柳天成表示，若我国经济今年第一季果真萎缩8.5％，那将会是自1976年，有关当局发布季度经济增长数据以来，最大幅度的同比季度萎缩。
新加坡金融管理局是每三个月向经济师展开调查，收集他们对经济前景的看法。最新的调查在2月下旬进行，该局向22名经济师发出问卷，共有20名经济师答复问卷。这项调查纯属经济师的看法，并不代表金管局的立场。
调查结果显示，经济师对全年经济增长的预测中位数是萎缩4.9％，而最可能出现的局面是萎缩5％到5.9％之间。
由于全球经济突告恶化，我国经济表现也急转直下，贸工部1月21日宣布再调低今年全年的经济增长预测，从原本的萎缩2％至1％增长，调低到萎缩2％至5％，显示我国有可能陷入自1965年独立以来最糟的经济衰退期。
我国去年第四季的国内生产总值萎缩了4.2％，全年增长也只得1.1％，经济放缓程度超出经济师的预料，这次答复问卷的经济师对今年所作的经济增长预测也相应调低。
Monday, March 16, 2009
陶冬：全球股市強升純屬技術反彈 銀行股超賣後的回抽
鉅亨網新聞中心．台北2009 / 03 / 16 星期一 09:10
知名分析師陶冬在他的博客上發表最新文章指出，近日美股連漲，帶動亞股走升，純屬技術反彈，是銀行股極度超賣之後的回抽；在有毒資產尚未剝離前，銀行並非真正走出困境。 他也認為，瑞士央行干預匯市，代表匯率變動的衝擊已由開發中國家蔓延至已開發國家。
陶冬博客全文如下：
銀行股走勢，主導了上週股市的大悲大喜。週一匯豐暴跌為全球股市蒙上了厚厚一層陰影，但是政府可能設沽空跌幅上限(upstick short rule)的傳言令投機客獲利收手。美國三大銀行先後表示，今年前兩個月有盈利，無需政府進一步注資。加上美國零售數據好過預期，全球股市出現了去年十一月以來的最強烈升市。
筆者認為，這次升市純屬技術反彈，是在銀行股極度超賣下的回抽。大多數銀行在運營層面上都是賺錢的，巨虧主要來自有毒資產的減值。在有毒資產未剝離或銀行不需按市值計價之前，銀行並沒有真正步出困境。個別銀行在股價暴跌時刻意放出未經審計的單月盈利消息，是試圖影響市場，避免被國有化。
瑞士央行上週干預匯市，以制止瑞士法郎升值。這表明政府利用干預匯率來減輕經濟震盪的做法，已經由新興國家蔓延到發達國家。另外瑞士在銀行私隱法規上的妥協，可能對該國經濟及全球私人銀行業務造成深遠的打擊。
本週宏觀數據不多，週二美國新屋動工料繼續減少（450K vs上月466K），週四美國二月領先指數預期為-0.6%（vs 上月的0.4%）。週三美國央行和週四日本央行開會，利率均不會有變。週一財務會計標準委員會(Financial Accounting Standards Board)討論按市值計價(mark to market)準則。美國財長預告，本週將公佈處理有毒資產的方案細節。
陶冬的博客網址：http://blog.cnyes.com/My/taodong/
上海樓市還在三月春寒中部分銀行將首付提至三成
鉅亨網新聞中心 (來源：財匯資訊，摘自：證券日報)2009 / 03 / 16 星期一 09:43
3月的上海，陰霾而多雨。在二月房價下跌、成交量放大的背景下，開放商們減少優惠甚至抬高房價。而價格的回暖，又使得成交持續6周的回暖之勢掉頭而下。易居中國?CRIC系統顯示，三月第一周(3月2日～8日)上海商品住宅成交量下滑13%。 而從記者近兩天的走訪看來，滬上今年房展會上的觀望態勢依然嚴重，二手房下跌幅度普遍在15-25%之間，購房者按揭首付仍需要三至四成。
大型開發商缺席房展會
多數購房者仍在觀望
2009年3月10日-3月15日，上海首個大型房展會——2009「上海之春」房展會在上海展覽中心如期舉行。
但前來參展的開發商不僅數量較往年下滑不少，規模縮小將近1/3，而且從參展開發商的規模和名氣來看，雖有保利、綠地、中華企業等知名地產商前來捧場，但諸多名企如萬科、金地等大牌開發商集體缺席。
從推出的樓盤位置來看，大部分都在靠近外環或者外環以外，寶山、嘉定、南匯、奉賢、松江等郊區樓盤佔據50%以上的展廳，雖然地位偏僻但開發商多以擬修建中的地鐵作為賣點，大有「得地鐵者得天下」的意味。
從樓盤分佈來看，價格最為堅挺的還是三林板塊。受世博會商圈的影響，整個三林地帶的房價在所有參展樓盤中跌幅最小。中房置業開發的金誼河畔均價在1.3萬左右，且戶型都在102平米以上。圍觀的一張姓購房人，操著一口上海話，對記者表示：「買這個樓盤還不如金地的灣流域，2008年國慶時，灣流域的房價在1.4萬左右，尤其是底樓價位也在1.3萬左右，還送一個陽台。金誼河畔偏高了。」
對於樓盤數量偏大的九亭而言，其降價幅度似乎也不明顯。九亭湖濱國際的銷售人員告訴記者，該樓盤的均價在9500元左右，目前是第3期，相比於第2期的最高價位12000時，已經折讓幅度達80%。但據一長期觀察九亭的購房者透露，九亭的交通、配套設施都未跟上，12000的價格早就是昨日黃花了。去年國慶時的價格也在這個數目。
記者在現場隨機採訪了幾位購房者。一李姓男青年表示：「自己想買房子作為婚房，但現在的價格太高了，網上都說價格下跌了而現在有點回暖，所以想趁房展會趕快購入一套，但現在看來，折扣根本沒有達到自己的心裡預期，所以只能再等等，期望房價再下跌10%後出手。」
樓市回暖論只是開房商放風
銀行仍維持按揭高首付比例
如果說開放商苦撐房價，導致滬上新房下跌有限的話，那麼，以個體為主的二手房則有些「扛不住」大勢所趨。
記者隨機走訪了兩大內環熱門地帶世紀大道和中山公園一些中介機構。中介們要麼表示：現在房價已經回升了1000-2000元，要麼表示，這些熱門地帶的房子已經不多，尤其是學區房(可在附近的重點小學或中學讀書)，必須趁現在樓市尚未完全回暖趕快出手，否則價位會越來越高。
九間伴的一中介甚至拿出媒體報道來勸說記者：「你看，房地產時報上寫的：據易居CRIC系統統計，今年2月，上海市商品住宅成交78.76萬平方米，比1月48.81萬平方米增加61%。這一數字與2006年和2008年同期相比都增幅明顯，分別上漲26.91%和129.09%，與2007年基本持平。」
但一資深老中介私下告訴記者：其實，現在登出來的二手房很多，急著出售的樓主也多了起來。有部分是現在急著要錢換新房的，有一部分是看空樓市想出手的。就是以現在這個價位出售，我敢說大部分的賣主都是賺了一倍。賺了一倍以上的賣主也不在於少個2、3萬了，畢竟相比於最高時，跌幅已經達到20%。
此外，上述老中介還表示：「表面上，有媒體說政策吹暖房市，銀行的各種按揭產品也是應接不暇，但實際上銀行並沒有積極支持。貸款的審批越發嚴格，對於私企工作的購房者，尤其困難。此外，按揭也越來越高，相關文件說首付比例是在兩成，但許多銀行都要求準備三至四成。」
3月的上海，陰霾而多雨。在二月房價下跌、成交量放大的背景下，開放商們減少優惠甚至抬高房價。而價格的回暖，又使得成交持續6周的回暖之勢掉頭而下。易居中國?CRIC系統顯示，三月第一周(3月2日～8日)上海商品住宅成交量下滑13%。 而從記者近兩天的走訪看來，滬上今年房展會上的觀望態勢依然嚴重，二手房下跌幅度普遍在15-25%之間，購房者按揭首付仍需要三至四成。
大型開發商缺席房展會
多數購房者仍在觀望
2009年3月10日-3月15日，上海首個大型房展會——2009「上海之春」房展會在上海展覽中心如期舉行。
但前來參展的開發商不僅數量較往年下滑不少，規模縮小將近1/3，而且從參展開發商的規模和名氣來看，雖有保利、綠地、中華企業等知名地產商前來捧場，但諸多名企如萬科、金地等大牌開發商集體缺席。
從推出的樓盤位置來看，大部分都在靠近外環或者外環以外，寶山、嘉定、南匯、奉賢、松江等郊區樓盤佔據50%以上的展廳，雖然地位偏僻但開發商多以擬修建中的地鐵作為賣點，大有「得地鐵者得天下」的意味。
從樓盤分佈來看，價格最為堅挺的還是三林板塊。受世博會商圈的影響，整個三林地帶的房價在所有參展樓盤中跌幅最小。中房置業開發的金誼河畔均價在1.3萬左右，且戶型都在102平米以上。圍觀的一張姓購房人，操著一口上海話，對記者表示：「買這個樓盤還不如金地的灣流域，2008年國慶時，灣流域的房價在1.4萬左右，尤其是底樓價位也在1.3萬左右，還送一個陽台。金誼河畔偏高了。」
對於樓盤數量偏大的九亭而言，其降價幅度似乎也不明顯。九亭湖濱國際的銷售人員告訴記者，該樓盤的均價在9500元左右，目前是第3期，相比於第2期的最高價位12000時，已經折讓幅度達80%。但據一長期觀察九亭的購房者透露，九亭的交通、配套設施都未跟上，12000的價格早就是昨日黃花了。去年國慶時的價格也在這個數目。
記者在現場隨機採訪了幾位購房者。一李姓男青年表示：「自己想買房子作為婚房，但現在的價格太高了，網上都說價格下跌了而現在有點回暖，所以想趁房展會趕快購入一套，但現在看來，折扣根本沒有達到自己的心裡預期，所以只能再等等，期望房價再下跌10%後出手。」
樓市回暖論只是開房商放風
銀行仍維持按揭高首付比例
如果說開放商苦撐房價，導致滬上新房下跌有限的話，那麼，以個體為主的二手房則有些「扛不住」大勢所趨。
記者隨機走訪了兩大內環熱門地帶世紀大道和中山公園一些中介機構。中介們要麼表示：現在房價已經回升了1000-2000元，要麼表示，這些熱門地帶的房子已經不多，尤其是學區房(可在附近的重點小學或中學讀書)，必須趁現在樓市尚未完全回暖趕快出手，否則價位會越來越高。
九間伴的一中介甚至拿出媒體報道來勸說記者：「你看，房地產時報上寫的：據易居CRIC系統統計，今年2月，上海市商品住宅成交78.76萬平方米，比1月48.81萬平方米增加61%。這一數字與2006年和2008年同期相比都增幅明顯，分別上漲26.91%和129.09%，與2007年基本持平。」
但一資深老中介私下告訴記者：其實，現在登出來的二手房很多，急著出售的樓主也多了起來。有部分是現在急著要錢換新房的，有一部分是看空樓市想出手的。就是以現在這個價位出售，我敢說大部分的賣主都是賺了一倍。賺了一倍以上的賣主也不在於少個2、3萬了，畢竟相比於最高時，跌幅已經達到20%。
此外，上述老中介還表示：「表面上，有媒體說政策吹暖房市，銀行的各種按揭產品也是應接不暇，但實際上銀行並沒有積極支持。貸款的審批越發嚴格，對於私企工作的購房者，尤其困難。此外，按揭也越來越高，相關文件說首付比例是在兩成，但許多銀行都要求準備三至四成。」
海峡时报指数
（2009-03-16） ● 银 本栏于上周一（9日）曾预估指数随时会跌穿去年10月28日所创下的1473.77的低点。当时指数为1513.12点左右。果然，见报当天指数就跌穿此低点，3月10日更下试1455.47点，过后渐渐回升，13日骤然上升至1577.52点，并以全天最高点闭市。由于回升甚骤，造成介于1524.48点至1493.53点间出现缺口。估计短期回扯当填补此缺口，过后可能向上将介于1561.50点至1594.87点间的缺口填补，加上周围于上周五闭市时呈“主要转向”讯号，因此，回升填补介于1641.05点至1651.06点也就顺理成章了。
分析员：股市仍未见底
（2009-03-16） ● 王阳发 一般都用“熊市的反弹”、“技术性反弹”来形容上周海峡指数的情况，这种涨势自从全球信贷危机爆发以来，通常一两周内便消失，而今年来，海指未曾连续两周上涨。虽然有人认为下跌风险已减少，但对回弹势头是否能持续采取保留态度者，以及相信股市还未见底者，似乎还稳占上风。若无更多刺激股价的利好消息，蓝筹股的涨势料难持续。
华尔街隔夜股市虽成功四天连涨，但上周五其三大指数涨幅皆不到0.8%，因投资者仍怀疑股市已见底。市场人士指出，虽说美股全周大涨10%是好现象，却并不意味着最坏的已经过去。
因此，市场料将继续密切留意华尔街和美国联储局的最新动向。联储局公开市场委员会将在周三结束其两天会议，最受期待的动向是，该局是否采取利率以外的其他振兴信贷市场的措施，例如购买美国政府的长期公券。此外，市场也关注一些经济数字，特别是周三将出炉的美国2月份消费价格指数，一般预料它将上涨0.3%。至于美国有关当局周一开会讨论修改以市值计价(mark-to-market)的会计条例(以减少金融股面对的卖空压力)，这最终是否能使股市出现一轮上涨，也需拭目以待。
回顾上周，初时市场继续有人警告，过去记录显示，银行股在股市见底前，往往会有一轮暴跌，所以先别买这类股票。
没想到言犹在耳，银行股等重量级蓝筹股便把海指强压到1500点以下，海指全周大部分时间是在1500点以下苦苦挣扎，并创下去年第三季全球爆发信贷危机以来的最低点(1455.47点)和最低闭市水平(1456.95点)，这也是危机以来海指在1500点以下最久的一次。龙筹股坏消息连连，也打击了整体股市的交易兴致。
不过，眼见美国华尔街股市三天内大涨了约10%，以及鉴于来自美国、中国和日本经济方面的有利迹象和消息(尤其是花旗集团和美国银行先后表示最近开始盈利、无需政府再注资)，区域股市纷纷跟进。
投资者最后似乎不管三七二十一的慌忙重投本地蓝筹股的怀抱(由银行股领头大涨)，导致上周五大力回扬，海指全周不跌反涨了64.4点或4.3%，创下10周来最大单周涨幅。
但好些交易员、分析员以及基金经理指出，全球股市上周的情况属于熊市回弹、技术性回弹，股市应该还未触底。换句话说，下跌的趋势未消失，此时不宜大举进场购买。
海指上涨乏力法新社也报道，交易员认为新加坡股市的上涨势头可能难以持续，因为好消息仍相当缺乏，投资者的乐观情绪将渐退减。 如果单从过去11周海指的波动来看，海指本周回跌的几率确实相当高。此外，小型股、中国股和凯利板指数上周继续显著挫跌。
KELIVE研究市场技术策略师戴志明便认为股市仍未见底，基础因素仍没看头，信贷危机并未结束。他还指出另一担忧：大公司一个接一个向市场筹巨资的行动。
投资者确实一直在担心这点。上周媒体持续报道海皇轮船将配售附加股的传言，致使海皇轮船不得不在上周五中午发布文告加以否认。
另一方面，麦格理私人财富公司在澳大利亚的一位顾问海伦·斯潘塞对法新社表示：“下跌风险似乎已大减。市场正积极的寻找跌势来到尽头或股市见底的迹象，而肯定的，那些统计数字正开始变得稍微比预期的还要好。”美国零售销售情况在2月的环比跌幅，便比预期的小。
华尔街隔夜股市虽成功四天连涨，但上周五其三大指数涨幅皆不到0.8%，因投资者仍怀疑股市已见底。市场人士指出，虽说美股全周大涨10%是好现象，却并不意味着最坏的已经过去。
因此，市场料将继续密切留意华尔街和美国联储局的最新动向。联储局公开市场委员会将在周三结束其两天会议，最受期待的动向是，该局是否采取利率以外的其他振兴信贷市场的措施，例如购买美国政府的长期公券。此外，市场也关注一些经济数字，特别是周三将出炉的美国2月份消费价格指数，一般预料它将上涨0.3%。至于美国有关当局周一开会讨论修改以市值计价(mark-to-market)的会计条例(以减少金融股面对的卖空压力)，这最终是否能使股市出现一轮上涨，也需拭目以待。
回顾上周，初时市场继续有人警告，过去记录显示，银行股在股市见底前，往往会有一轮暴跌，所以先别买这类股票。
没想到言犹在耳，银行股等重量级蓝筹股便把海指强压到1500点以下，海指全周大部分时间是在1500点以下苦苦挣扎，并创下去年第三季全球爆发信贷危机以来的最低点(1455.47点)和最低闭市水平(1456.95点)，这也是危机以来海指在1500点以下最久的一次。龙筹股坏消息连连，也打击了整体股市的交易兴致。
不过，眼见美国华尔街股市三天内大涨了约10%，以及鉴于来自美国、中国和日本经济方面的有利迹象和消息(尤其是花旗集团和美国银行先后表示最近开始盈利、无需政府再注资)，区域股市纷纷跟进。
投资者最后似乎不管三七二十一的慌忙重投本地蓝筹股的怀抱(由银行股领头大涨)，导致上周五大力回扬，海指全周不跌反涨了64.4点或4.3%，创下10周来最大单周涨幅。
但好些交易员、分析员以及基金经理指出，全球股市上周的情况属于熊市回弹、技术性回弹，股市应该还未触底。换句话说，下跌的趋势未消失，此时不宜大举进场购买。
海指上涨乏力法新社也报道，交易员认为新加坡股市的上涨势头可能难以持续，因为好消息仍相当缺乏，投资者的乐观情绪将渐退减。 如果单从过去11周海指的波动来看，海指本周回跌的几率确实相当高。此外，小型股、中国股和凯利板指数上周继续显著挫跌。
KELIVE研究市场技术策略师戴志明便认为股市仍未见底，基础因素仍没看头，信贷危机并未结束。他还指出另一担忧：大公司一个接一个向市场筹巨资的行动。
投资者确实一直在担心这点。上周媒体持续报道海皇轮船将配售附加股的传言，致使海皇轮船不得不在上周五中午发布文告加以否认。
另一方面，麦格理私人财富公司在澳大利亚的一位顾问海伦·斯潘塞对法新社表示：“下跌风险似乎已大减。市场正积极的寻找跌势来到尽头或股市见底的迹象，而肯定的，那些统计数字正开始变得稍微比预期的还要好。”美国零售销售情况在2月的环比跌幅，便比预期的小。
Friday, March 13, 2009
銀行業》展現自身持續力的關鍵時刻 程冠捷不談理財勤布關係網
( 2009/03/11 )
金融海嘯讓理財專員被客戶罵到臭頭，香港上海匯豐銀行個人金融處理財業務資深經理程冠捷卻靠著對客戶的了解，提供最切合需求的服務，不但讓客戶躲過金融風暴，也為自己創造出亮眼的業績。
二○○八年一月十八日，台北一○一大樓八十五樓的觀景餐廳「金光閃閃」，國內金融界的一流好手聚集在這裡，參與由聯博基金主辦的「第一屆優質理財顧問選拔活動——金融菁英獎」的頒獎典禮。這項殊榮，是結合銀行與保險業者、專家學者意見後，才完成的評選，被視為是金融從業人員的最高榮譽。香港上海匯豐銀行個人金融處理財業務資深經理程冠捷，就在本次受獎行列中。
從○四年起，程冠捷連續五年獲得匯豐銀行全國第一名的超級業務員。每年，匯豐銀行都會考量當年的環境，針對每一項職務訂出目標達成率，○八年程冠捷的業績，是公司訂出目標達成率的百分之三百，與○七年的成績相近，就算市場最惡劣的○八年第四季，成績也維持穩定。
取信客戶╱隨時檢視投資情形
匯豐銀行個人金融處資深副總裁陳湘芬表示，程冠捷服務的貴賓理財，客戶數雖然不多，但每位的資產規模卻很龐大，能取得他們高度信任，相當不容易。程冠捷對客戶的用心，還讓他在○七年與○八年，成為匯豐銀行銷售品質獎的得主。
《今周刊》曾於○八年底舉辦「二○○八年商務人士理想品牌大調查」，在銀行項目中，匯豐銀行雖排名第五，但仔細分析受訪者選擇匯豐銀行的理由不難發現，二五％選擇理由是因為匯豐銀擁有多元的理財商品，而該選項的比率居所有銀行之冠。
儘管程冠捷一再強調公司資源的重要性，但是陳湘芬表示，商品一直就存在架上，業務員還是要靠自己的專業知識，以及與客戶的關係度提供適度的建議。陳湘芬講的「關係度」，指的就是業務員對客戶需求了解的程度。
程冠捷經常將客戶的資料調出來，了解當時他們的投資狀況。他強調，將資料調出來時，未必是打算建議其調整配置，但經常觀察帳戶狀況，可以隨時檢視資產配置是否有調整的必要；面對詢問時，程冠捷可以馬上回答，讓客戶感受到時時刻刻的關切。
評估風險╱充分討論資產配置
三、四年前，陳先生在友人的介紹下，成為程冠捷的客戶，但同時也還保留著其他理專的服務。經過比較後，陳先生發現，其他銀行的理專常一味推銷產品，反觀程冠捷，他會為客戶分析市場，讓人感受到他的專業度，且會針對客戶的需求提出建議，對於沒有時間管理自身資產的客戶，的確幫助很大。經過測試，陳先生幾乎所有的資產都已轉到匯豐的戶頭，由程冠捷統一管理。
當時，陳先先已經賠了二○％，並不甘心認賠賣出，但在程冠捷極力勸說下，還是決定先贖回，轉投資債券等保守型商品。事後回想，朋友的投資幾乎已經賠到掛零了，但他卻只賠二○％，算是幸運的。
匯豐的多元理財商品讓程冠捷安然度過危機，「我不是要客戶投資，而是跟他們談資產配置。」他表示，客戶在歷經虧損之後，對於積極性的投資已經心生畏懼，甚至不想再談論有關財富管理的話題。但是客戶的錢還是需要適當管理，甚至因為不做投資，而有較多的現金需要處理。
切入生活╱從軟性話題旁敲側擊
在這個時間點，很多理專被客戶拒絕幾次，就心灰意冷。程冠捷認為，客戶的反應可以理解，但客戶不談理財，可以跟他們談點軟性的議題，包括品酒、高爾夫等等，不要自亂陣腳，因為如果連理專都表現出恐慌，客戶當然更擔心。
在金融海嘯中，更容易感受出理專的專業程度。「取得信任很重要，高資產的客戶尤其信任口碑介紹。」程冠捷強調，理專一個一個開發客戶確實很辛苦，但如果花一分力量，可以得到五位客戶，相對就輕鬆多了。他就是這樣取得客戶的信任，客戶再介紹客戶，逐漸散開網絡。
一位傑出的業務員，並不是等危機來臨時，才趕緊採取某些動作，試圖避開危機；其實，平常的基本功就要做得扎實，隨時訓練自己的危機處理能力。程冠捷強調，「這是一個展現自身持續力的關鍵時刻。」對於接下來的金融市場，程冠捷可是信心滿滿。...（精采完整內文請見《今周刊》638期，各大便利商店及連鎖書店均有銷售）
走进康熙盛世 欣赏故宫珍宝
（2009-03-13） ● 黄康玮 中国清朝皇帝康熙历史展今天起在亚洲文明博物馆展览3个月。
“康熙盛世：故宫珍宝”展示这位满族皇帝执政61年的点滴，让公众了解他的一生经历和政绩。
在中国，满族并不是大族，因此康熙意识到要巩固满清的统治权，须确保各族和睦相处。为缓和各族之间的矛盾，他笼络江南的士大夫阶级、24年里六巡江南，显示了对兴修水利与对人民的重视。在文化方面，康熙学习与推广汉、蒙、藏各族文化，也积极弘扬满族文化。
新加坡与康熙执掌的清朝也有相似的地方。北京故宫博物院常务副院长李季说，康熙统一许多民族、协调民族关系、在人格上也具有魅力。
李季说，他几年到新加坡时，觉得新加坡是个多民族、多文化、和谐生存的国家，与满清时期的中国相似，因此，让《康熙盛世：故宫珍宝》在新加坡举行很合适。
教育部兼新闻、通讯及艺术部高级政务部长吕徳耀昨天为展览主持开幕仪式时说，康熙不但推广弘扬各族文化，也积极欢迎西方文化。“正与康熙相同，我们要借用多元文化的强项，积极推广多元文化社会的文化遗产及学习运用世界各地的思维做法”。
吕徳耀：
应以自身文化为荣
吕徳耀也说，虽然新加坡人生活在一个吸引外来人才的现代环境，但各族应以自身文化为荣、积极庆祝文化节日。
亚洲文明博物馆馆长郭勤逊说，展览不仅回顾一位清朝大帝生活上的琐碎、战场上的光辉，人们更应该欣赏康熙认真对待工作，具有责任感、身为少数民族（满族）却能融洽大清民族的气魄。 筹备了两年半的《康熙盛世：故宫珍宝》今天起开放给公众参观，展出95件珍贵文物，包括朝袍、御用织物、武备、精美画作、字画、科学仪器、瓷器、玉玺、鼻烟壶及宫廷饰品等，其中80件是北京故宫博物院稀世珍宝，首次在东南亚展出。
展至6月14日
康熙展举行到6月14日，开放时间是星期一下午1时至晚上7时，星期二至星期日上午9时至晚上7时，星期五开放至晚上9时。门票为成人8元，学生和乐龄人士4元，每星期一乐龄人士免费。展览期间每逢星期六及日有华语导览安排，时间为下午2时30分及下午3时30分。
配合“康熙盛世：故宫珍宝”展，亚洲文明博物馆推出两项大型活动：“康熙盛世”研讨会和满族文化节。
“康熙盛世”研讨会本月21日在亚洲文明博物馆举行，8名来自新加坡、美国、英国和中国的学者就康熙执政时期的大清王朝，及他的生平事迹展开全方位探讨。
研讨会有华英语同步翻译，成人收费55元，学生25元。门票包含“康熙盛世：故宫珍宝”展。时间从上午9时至下午6时。有意出席者可上网
满族文化节本月28日及29日中午12时至下午5时举行。公众可欣赏到康熙及清宫成员的消遣和娱乐，并可从生动有趣的扮演中了解清宫的日常生活细节，亲身体验“康熙盛世”的不同凡响。
报业控股雇员减薪（附地图）
（2009-03-13） 新加坡报业控股（SPH）宣布削减工资成本，从今年4月1日开始，集团旗下3000名职员的月薪将调低2至10％不等，加上同盈利挂钩的花红也将相应减少，预计这将让集团核心业务的工资成本减少约20％。 报业控股指出，实际削减的数额，将取决于每名员工目前所支取的工资配套，薪金越高的职员，削减的份额越高。月薪在2000元或以下的职员将不会被减薪。
集团也会给予减薪的职员额外的年假，以作为补偿。
集团的子公司也将根据它们所面对的不同情况，推行各自的削减工资计划。
集团表示，最新一轮的削减成本举措，是为了应付目前急转直下的经商情况。
我国经济衰退情况严重，出口受到美国、欧洲和日本需求下滑的影响，在今年初，官方的数据就预测，今年我国的经济可能会萎缩介于2至5％。
报业控股执行总裁陈庆鏻说：“由于经商环境不明朗，加上广告市场趋软，我们需要降低成本。我们必须为可能比预期还长的经济衰退期做好准备，这么一来，当经济复苏后，我们才会变得更强大。”
由于报纸业务的盈利下滑，同盈利挂钩的花红也会相应减少。高级管理层的削减幅度最大，估计将占他们整体常年工资的约30％。
除了减薪，报业控股也已经推出一系列的削减成本举措，包括停止招聘和削减营运开支。
报业控股是在同公司的两个工会——新加坡全国新闻工作者协会（SNUJ）和新加坡报业控股雇员职工会（SPHEU）协商后，达成调整薪金的协议，并在昨天傍晚向职员讲解了减薪的详情。
报业控股出版四种不同语言的报章，一共有17份，并拥有两个电台。在新加坡和整个区域也印刷超过100份杂志。
集团也会给予减薪的职员额外的年假，以作为补偿。
集团的子公司也将根据它们所面对的不同情况，推行各自的削减工资计划。
集团表示，最新一轮的削减成本举措，是为了应付目前急转直下的经商情况。
我国经济衰退情况严重，出口受到美国、欧洲和日本需求下滑的影响，在今年初，官方的数据就预测，今年我国的经济可能会萎缩介于2至5％。
报业控股执行总裁陈庆鏻说：“由于经商环境不明朗，加上广告市场趋软，我们需要降低成本。我们必须为可能比预期还长的经济衰退期做好准备，这么一来，当经济复苏后，我们才会变得更强大。”
由于报纸业务的盈利下滑，同盈利挂钩的花红也会相应减少。高级管理层的削减幅度最大，估计将占他们整体常年工资的约30％。
除了减薪，报业控股也已经推出一系列的削减成本举措，包括停止招聘和削减营运开支。
报业控股是在同公司的两个工会——新加坡全国新闻工作者协会（SNUJ）和新加坡报业控股雇员职工会（SPHEU）协商后，达成调整薪金的协议，并在昨天傍晚向职员讲解了减薪的详情。
报业控股出版四种不同语言的报章，一共有17份，并拥有两个电台。在新加坡和整个区域也印刷超过100份杂志。
康福德高企业和SMRT企业 23日起纳入海指
（2009-03-13） 从本月23日开始，康福德高企业（Comfortdelgro Corp）和SMRT企业（SMRT Corp）将纳入海峡时报指数（STI），取代原有的仁恒置地（Yanlord Land）和吉宝置业（Keppel Land）。 新加坡报业控股、新加坡交易所，以及富时指数集团（FTSE）完成了对海峡时报指数，以及富时海峡时报指数系列（FTSE ST Index Series）的半年一度的检讨工作，并在昨天宣布检讨结果。
检讨后，海峡时报指数的后备名单，按市值排列包括了腾飞房产信托（Ascendas REIT）、STX泛洋（STX Pan Ocean）、扬子江船业（Yangzijiang Shipbuilding）、新邮政（Singapore Post），以及新加坡置地（Singapore Land）。后备名单的作用，是在有成份股因一些因素，在下一次检讨之前被除名时作为替代。
半年一次的检讨，是要确保指数能准确反映市场的情况。除了海峡时报指数之外，其他19个富时海峡时报指数也有调整。
所有变动将从本月23日（星期一）开始交易时生效，下一轮的检讨将在9月10日展开。
检讨后，海峡时报指数的后备名单，按市值排列包括了腾飞房产信托（Ascendas REIT）、STX泛洋（STX Pan Ocean）、扬子江船业（Yangzijiang Shipbuilding）、新邮政（Singapore Post），以及新加坡置地（Singapore Land）。后备名单的作用，是在有成份股因一些因素，在下一次检讨之前被除名时作为替代。
半年一次的检讨，是要确保指数能准确反映市场的情况。除了海峡时报指数之外，其他19个富时海峡时报指数也有调整。
所有变动将从本月23日（星期一）开始交易时生效，下一轮的检讨将在9月10日展开。
代表委員認為:"土地財政"是高房價最大禍首
鉅亨網新聞中心 (來源：財匯資訊，摘自：經濟參考報)2009 / 03 / 13 星期五 09:23 上一則 下一則
「地方政府對『土地財政』的過度依賴是造成高地價、高房價的根本原因。」全國政協委員梁季陽接受記者採訪時指出，房地產的病根在於土地，土地市場的高度壟斷是房價畸高的根本原因。 兩會期間，說起高房價，很多代表委員都將矛頭指向了「土地財政」。
梁季陽告訴記者，地方政府依據土地管理法，對農村集體所有的土地實行徵用，徵用農民土地支付的費用是一畝地幾萬元，但出讓給房地產開發商的價格可達幾十萬元、上百萬元乃至幾百萬元，巨大的價差使得地方政府熱衷於「高價賣地」「以地生財」。在國際上一般地價占房價的1/4左右，而目前我國地價往往達到了房價的一半。
「在一些地方，政府的土地出讓金的收入幾乎佔全部財政收入的60%至70%。根據有關數據，2007年全國土地出讓金收入約1.2萬億元。這屬於非稅收入，自由遊蕩在政府財政管理體系之外。作為掌控土地資源和土地賣方的地方政府對於房地產價格升高是樂見其成的。」梁季陽說。
全國工商聯在給政協會議上提交的《我國房價何以高居不下》的書面發言中指出，我國房地產行業目前存在成本和費用結構嚴重失衡、稅費明顯偏高且徵收不合理的狀況。剛性的土地成本不僅導致了房價的居高不下，同時也是造成當前房地產市場低迷的重要原因。其中，土地成本占企業開發直接成本的比例最高，達到58.2%。
全國政協委員、中國社會科學院世界歷史研究所研究員俞金堯指出，正是由於地方財政上對賣地的依賴，一些地方政府與開發商形成了共同利益，才會出現地方政府不顧公眾利益替開發商賣力促銷；而開發商則在成交量大幅萎縮的情況下，寧願繼續守候政府出台刺激樓市的政策而不願爽快降價，致使虛高的房價出現硬撐的局面。
「土地收益或房地產開發成為地方政府收入的主要來源絕不是一個正常的現象，這種現象將來必然造成很大的被動。」全國人大代表、湖南金僑置業集團董事長任玉奇說，地方政府「以地生財」的模式不利於耕地保護。
在今年兩會之前，任玉奇專門進行過調查，「根據有關部門提供的數據，現在我國每年有一個農業縣的耕地消失。」任玉奇說，城市化進程不能以犧牲耕地，犧牲農民利益為代價。這種短期行為將會給國家、給子孫後代造成不可估量的損失。
「地方政府必須擺脫對『土地財政』的依賴。」俞金堯委員建議，地方政府今後適度調整土地出讓節奏，把握土地的基準價格，使土地價格有一個合理的底價，價格既不能太低，造成土地低效，浪費性地使用；也不能太高，增加城市化和工業化的成本，對整個社會經濟發展不利。
任玉奇認為，國家應調整土地出讓金收益比例，將土地出讓金更多地讓利給農民，以抑制地方政府的逐利衝動。要遏制地方政府「以地生財」的衝動，機制改革更重要。「如果是我當市長，我也會在自己的任期內盡可能地『以地生財』。在目前的機制下，你不幹自然有別人干。所以『土地財政』的根子不在地方，而在於制度。」任玉奇說。
全國工商聯建議，將一次性收取的土地租金和集中在開發和銷售環節的稅收整合為統一的房地產稅或物業稅，延遲到房屋保有環節徵收；改革土地招拍掛制度，改變過去「價高者獲得土地」模式，變為綜合考慮土地競標者的投標方案，尤其把環保指標納入到綜合考慮因素中。
「地方政府對『土地財政』的過度依賴是造成高地價、高房價的根本原因。」全國政協委員梁季陽接受記者採訪時指出，房地產的病根在於土地，土地市場的高度壟斷是房價畸高的根本原因。 兩會期間，說起高房價，很多代表委員都將矛頭指向了「土地財政」。
梁季陽告訴記者，地方政府依據土地管理法，對農村集體所有的土地實行徵用，徵用農民土地支付的費用是一畝地幾萬元，但出讓給房地產開發商的價格可達幾十萬元、上百萬元乃至幾百萬元，巨大的價差使得地方政府熱衷於「高價賣地」「以地生財」。在國際上一般地價占房價的1/4左右，而目前我國地價往往達到了房價的一半。
「在一些地方，政府的土地出讓金的收入幾乎佔全部財政收入的60%至70%。根據有關數據，2007年全國土地出讓金收入約1.2萬億元。這屬於非稅收入，自由遊蕩在政府財政管理體系之外。作為掌控土地資源和土地賣方的地方政府對於房地產價格升高是樂見其成的。」梁季陽說。
全國工商聯在給政協會議上提交的《我國房價何以高居不下》的書面發言中指出，我國房地產行業目前存在成本和費用結構嚴重失衡、稅費明顯偏高且徵收不合理的狀況。剛性的土地成本不僅導致了房價的居高不下，同時也是造成當前房地產市場低迷的重要原因。其中，土地成本占企業開發直接成本的比例最高，達到58.2%。
全國政協委員、中國社會科學院世界歷史研究所研究員俞金堯指出，正是由於地方財政上對賣地的依賴，一些地方政府與開發商形成了共同利益，才會出現地方政府不顧公眾利益替開發商賣力促銷；而開發商則在成交量大幅萎縮的情況下，寧願繼續守候政府出台刺激樓市的政策而不願爽快降價，致使虛高的房價出現硬撐的局面。
「土地收益或房地產開發成為地方政府收入的主要來源絕不是一個正常的現象，這種現象將來必然造成很大的被動。」全國人大代表、湖南金僑置業集團董事長任玉奇說，地方政府「以地生財」的模式不利於耕地保護。
在今年兩會之前，任玉奇專門進行過調查，「根據有關部門提供的數據，現在我國每年有一個農業縣的耕地消失。」任玉奇說，城市化進程不能以犧牲耕地，犧牲農民利益為代價。這種短期行為將會給國家、給子孫後代造成不可估量的損失。
「地方政府必須擺脫對『土地財政』的依賴。」俞金堯委員建議，地方政府今後適度調整土地出讓節奏，把握土地的基準價格，使土地價格有一個合理的底價，價格既不能太低，造成土地低效，浪費性地使用；也不能太高，增加城市化和工業化的成本，對整個社會經濟發展不利。
任玉奇認為，國家應調整土地出讓金收益比例，將土地出讓金更多地讓利給農民，以抑制地方政府的逐利衝動。要遏制地方政府「以地生財」的衝動，機制改革更重要。「如果是我當市長，我也會在自己的任期內盡可能地『以地生財』。在目前的機制下，你不幹自然有別人干。所以『土地財政』的根子不在地方，而在於制度。」任玉奇說。
全國工商聯建議，將一次性收取的土地租金和集中在開發和銷售環節的稅收整合為統一的房地產稅或物業稅，延遲到房屋保有環節徵收；改革土地招拍掛制度，改變過去「價高者獲得土地」模式，變為綜合考慮土地競標者的投標方案，尤其把環保指標納入到綜合考慮因素中。
Thursday, March 12, 2009
香港多間銀行調低樓宇按揭息率
鉅亨網新聞中心 (來源：世華財訊)2009 / 03 / 12 星期四 12:01 上一則 下一則 Ads by Google彰化前途，陳杰再此一戰！blog.roodo.com彰化縣長候選人-陳杰長期關心獨居老人並主張開辦學費補助，減輕家長的負擔! 繼建設銀行(亞洲)早前下調新造樓宇按揭息率後，香港多間銀行也開始調低樓宇按揭息率，香港匯豐銀行也於3月10日公佈推出全新定息按揭計劃，首年按息更低至2.18釐。 據上海證券報3月12日報導，香港本地銀行近日掀起減息戰，繼建設銀行（亞洲）早前下調新造樓宇按揭息率後，星展及永隆也把按息降至3釐，香港樓按市場的領航者之一，匯豐銀行也於3月10日公佈推出全新定息按揭計劃，首年按息更低至2.18釐，而東亞與花旗11日也加入了減息隊伍，分別將首年按揭定期貸款利息降至2.18釐及3釐。
東亞銀行11日宣布，首年新造按揭定息調至2.18釐。若用戶選擇首兩年定息供款，利率為2.48%；首三年定息利率為2.68釐，上述各定息年期完結後，全程息率均為最優惠利率減2釐。該行物業按揭部發言人指出，有關計劃的罰息期僅為一年，接受新造按揭、轉按或套現申請，按揭成數最高為95%，金額下限100萬港元，計劃可於4月份前申請。該行的最優惠利率為5.25釐。
花旗銀行隨後也表示，調低新造按揭利率至3釐，即最優惠利率減2.25釐，該行最優惠利率為5.25釐。
(付影 編輯)
東亞銀行11日宣布，首年新造按揭定息調至2.18釐。若用戶選擇首兩年定息供款，利率為2.48%；首三年定息利率為2.68釐，上述各定息年期完結後，全程息率均為最優惠利率減2釐。該行物業按揭部發言人指出，有關計劃的罰息期僅為一年，接受新造按揭、轉按或套現申請，按揭成數最高為95%，金額下限100萬港元，計劃可於4月份前申請。該行的最優惠利率為5.25釐。
花旗銀行隨後也表示，調低新造按揭利率至3釐，即最優惠利率減2.25釐，該行最優惠利率為5.25釐。
(付影 編輯)
海指昨再起19点 短线抛空须审慎
（2009-03-12） ● 陈士铭 受到花旗集团和汇丰集团分别说它们的业务正在好转消息的刺激，本地股市昨日再升1.3％，但尾市却因瑞士银行全年亏损增加的消息而出现一些抛售活动。
辉立证券研究认为，纽约股市隔夜暴涨的动力很强，海指预料会紧随美股攀升，短线抛空者必须采取审慎态度，必要时先采取止损买入的策略，但长期而言，海指接下来几个月的下跌走势维持不变。
海峡时报指数闭市报1505.51点，起19.76点，全日在1502.82点和1530.56点之间波动。全日股价升多跌少，上升股212只，下跌股167只，没有变动的874只。全场成交量计10亿6735万股，总值报9亿2273万元。
指数股方面，大华银行起14分到8.47元，星展集团起15分到6.90元。尽管早盘因花旗集团报它今年首两个月有盈利而一度飙升，本地银行股到下午却受到汇丰控股在附加股除权前遭受一些抛售压力的拖累，加上又面对瑞士银行的亏损增加消息，尾市都普遍缩小涨幅。
特许半导体再跌1分到11.5分。交易员说，许多投资者不愿认购它的附加股，可能意味着它的主要股东淡马锡控股需要认购它的更多附加股。
新加坡石油跌3分到2.39元。油价上午在亚洲略升到46美元左右，交易商说，尽管石油输出国料在本周末宣布进一步减产，美国政府调低今年的全球石油需求预测，影响了投资者的购兴。
新航起21分到10.10元。它宣布为了减低成本，已要求职员是否自愿领取无薪假期两年。海皇轮船跌7分到86.5分。继特许半导体之后，它盛传也会发附加股来筹资，高盛建议在当前不明朗的情况下应避开它，并把它的目标价定在80分。金英证券研究则认为，它目前并不需要加强其资本基础，只是如果它要展开收购行动，它就需要考虑筹集资金。
STX泛洋起64分到8.64元。波罗的海干散货运指数连续第8天在伦敦上升1.6％，引起投资者恢复吸购它。
黄金股票跌78美分到89.02美元。金价下午在欧洲市场达到899美元左右，交易商透露，黄金股票的买气欠佳。
辉立证券研究认为，纽约股市隔夜暴涨的动力很强，海指预料会紧随美股攀升，短线抛空者必须采取审慎态度，必要时先采取止损买入的策略，但长期而言，海指接下来几个月的下跌走势维持不变。
海峡时报指数闭市报1505.51点，起19.76点，全日在1502.82点和1530.56点之间波动。全日股价升多跌少，上升股212只，下跌股167只，没有变动的874只。全场成交量计10亿6735万股，总值报9亿2273万元。
指数股方面，大华银行起14分到8.47元，星展集团起15分到6.90元。尽管早盘因花旗集团报它今年首两个月有盈利而一度飙升，本地银行股到下午却受到汇丰控股在附加股除权前遭受一些抛售压力的拖累，加上又面对瑞士银行的亏损增加消息，尾市都普遍缩小涨幅。
特许半导体再跌1分到11.5分。交易员说，许多投资者不愿认购它的附加股，可能意味着它的主要股东淡马锡控股需要认购它的更多附加股。
新加坡石油跌3分到2.39元。油价上午在亚洲略升到46美元左右，交易商说，尽管石油输出国料在本周末宣布进一步减产，美国政府调低今年的全球石油需求预测，影响了投资者的购兴。
新航起21分到10.10元。它宣布为了减低成本，已要求职员是否自愿领取无薪假期两年。海皇轮船跌7分到86.5分。继特许半导体之后，它盛传也会发附加股来筹资，高盛建议在当前不明朗的情况下应避开它，并把它的目标价定在80分。金英证券研究则认为，它目前并不需要加强其资本基础，只是如果它要展开收购行动，它就需要考虑筹集资金。
STX泛洋起64分到8.64元。波罗的海干散货运指数连续第8天在伦敦上升1.6％，引起投资者恢复吸购它。
黄金股票跌78美分到89.02美元。金价下午在欧洲市场达到899美元左右，交易商透露，黄金股票的买气欠佳。
汇丰推出 房屋贷款新配套
（2009-03-12） 汇丰(HSBC)去年在本地的房屋贷款业务取得了18％的增长。该银行决定乘胜追击，以长达10年的奖励留住房屋贷款客户。 汇丰去年7月推出一个新颖的房屋贷款配套，利率与3个月新元拆息率(SIBOR)挂钩，首三年的利差(spread)逐年递减0.1个百分点。汇丰的个人财务服务主管阿格里(Sebastian Arcuri)表示，自推出这个配套后，银行的房屋贷款业务便蒸蒸日上，银行因此决定推出另一个创意配套来奖励客户。
贷款者若在汇丰拥有至少10万元的存款、投资或保险，首10年的利差将每年递减0.075个百分点，而到了第10年，利差便降到零。也就是说，他的第一年贷款利率比3个月新元拆息率高1.5个百分点，第二年比拆息率高1.425％、第三年高1.35％，依此类推。到了第10年，他只须按当时的新元拆息率支付利息。
拥有至少20万元存款、投资或保险汇丰卓越理财(HSBC Premier)的客户可享有更大的折扣，利差每年递减0.1个百分点。
贷款者若在汇丰拥有至少10万元的存款、投资或保险，首10年的利差将每年递减0.075个百分点，而到了第10年，利差便降到零。也就是说，他的第一年贷款利率比3个月新元拆息率高1.5个百分点，第二年比拆息率高1.425％、第三年高1.35％，依此类推。到了第10年，他只须按当时的新元拆息率支付利息。
拥有至少20万元存款、投资或保险汇丰卓越理财(HSBC Premier)的客户可享有更大的折扣，利差每年递减0.1个百分点。
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
投资者担心更多公司陷财困 海指昨惨跌56点
（2009-03-10） ● 陈士铭 在投资者担心越来越多公司可能陷入财务危机以及贷款违约率将飙升的冲击下，本地股市昨日惨跌3.7％。
美国历史悠久的蓝筹股公司通用电气因受到金融业务的拖累，上周惨遭抛售，令人担忧。汇丰控股昨日更在香港市场暴跌超过20％，引起投资者十分关注银行业的走势。
星展集团研究预测，海指看来势必下试1300点，不过短期而言或先在1450点和1585点之间暂时波动。一旦海指从1300点左右止跌回升，银行股和房地产股到时料将是升势最凌厉的股票。
海峡时报指数闭市报1456.95点，猛跌56.17点，也是全日的最低水平。全日股价跌多升少，上升股116只，下跌股318只，而没有变动的有797只。全场成交量计8亿3031万股，总值报6亿6677万元。
指数股方面，大华银行暴跌62分到8.20元，星展集团大跌45分到6.45元。汇丰控股继续饱受供股因素的拖累，全日在香港股市重挫超过10港元，造成亚太各地的金融股面对强大的卖压。汇丰的附加股明日收市后除权。
特许半导体在午盘暂停交易，在这之前重挫4.5分到20.5分。市场盛传它将发行附加股来筹集3亿元。
新加坡石油跌1分到2.37元。石油输出国组织将在本周日开会，预料成员国到时将决定进一步减产。
怡和控股跌10美分到16.60美元，怡和策略微起2美分到8.92美元。花旗集团证券研究给予前者“抛售”评级，指它的酒店、汽车和房地产业务表现欠佳；对于后者则给予“持有”评级，指出它的资产负债表稳定，但缺乏有利刺激因素。
来宝集团跌3分到1.02元。里昂证券给予它“抛售”评级，认为全球经济衰退正在对它的盈利率和商品运输量带来压力。
泰国酿酒跌半分到18.5分。联昌国际研究建议“抛售”它，指它一旦跌破19分这个主要支持水平，技术而言可下试16.5分。 黄金股票跌29美分到92.36美元。金价上午在亚洲市场滑落到935美元左右。
美国历史悠久的蓝筹股公司通用电气因受到金融业务的拖累，上周惨遭抛售，令人担忧。汇丰控股昨日更在香港市场暴跌超过20％，引起投资者十分关注银行业的走势。
星展集团研究预测，海指看来势必下试1300点，不过短期而言或先在1450点和1585点之间暂时波动。一旦海指从1300点左右止跌回升，银行股和房地产股到时料将是升势最凌厉的股票。
海峡时报指数闭市报1456.95点，猛跌56.17点，也是全日的最低水平。全日股价跌多升少，上升股116只，下跌股318只，而没有变动的有797只。全场成交量计8亿3031万股，总值报6亿6677万元。
指数股方面，大华银行暴跌62分到8.20元，星展集团大跌45分到6.45元。汇丰控股继续饱受供股因素的拖累，全日在香港股市重挫超过10港元，造成亚太各地的金融股面对强大的卖压。汇丰的附加股明日收市后除权。
特许半导体在午盘暂停交易，在这之前重挫4.5分到20.5分。市场盛传它将发行附加股来筹集3亿元。
新加坡石油跌1分到2.37元。石油输出国组织将在本周日开会，预料成员国到时将决定进一步减产。
怡和控股跌10美分到16.60美元，怡和策略微起2美分到8.92美元。花旗集团证券研究给予前者“抛售”评级，指它的酒店、汽车和房地产业务表现欠佳；对于后者则给予“持有”评级，指出它的资产负债表稳定，但缺乏有利刺激因素。
来宝集团跌3分到1.02元。里昂证券给予它“抛售”评级，认为全球经济衰退正在对它的盈利率和商品运输量带来压力。
泰国酿酒跌半分到18.5分。联昌国际研究建议“抛售”它，指它一旦跌破19分这个主要支持水平，技术而言可下试16.5分。 黄金股票跌29美分到92.36美元。金价上午在亚洲市场滑落到935美元左右。
星展集团
（2009-03-10） ● 银 本栏于去年12月27日曾预估这只股票已经形成一个跌势三角形，若以此三角形的高升自其位于9.05元的底线，则股价最终目标将是5.93元了。当时股价为7.97元左右。虽然过后股价一度回升至今年元月7日的10.38元，可是依然无法摆脱其下跌的走势，截至3月6日股价已下试6.87元。估计股价目前最靠近的支撑线分布在6.20元左右，一旦穿下此价位，股价仅能依靠位于4.20元的薄弱支撑。由于1987年12月份的3.19元已不是重要指标，估计股价最终将跌穿2.91元的价位了。
星展银行大华银行 股价跌至10年最低
（2009-03-10）
● 李韵琳 自雷曼兄弟事件以来，世界各地大小银行股跌跌不休，身价大缩水，本地三家银行股也无法幸免，身价锐减一半以上。虽然本地三家银行所受的打击不比欧美银行来得大，市值也超越了过去的龙头老大花旗银行，但星展银行和大华银行股价已跌至10年来低点，接近亚洲金融危机时的水平，华侨银行股价则退低至6年来低点。
本地股市昨天跌破1500点支持水平，由银行股领跌，一天内蒸发掉25亿6560万元市值。其中，大华银行股价跌幅最大，下滑7％或62分，报8.20元，是该股自1999年5月以来最低水平。
接着是星展银行，其股价下跌6.5％或45分，报6.45元，为1999年2月19日以来的低点；而华侨银行股价则跌破4元，下跌4.6％或19分，报3.95元，为2003年7月10日以来的最低水平。
相比2007年历来最高点，本地三家银行的股价已折去介于60％至70％之间的价值，让一些投资者犹豫该不该进场捡便宜？
银行股跌势未尽？
分析师指出，本地银行虽走出债务担保凭证曝险的坑，却掉入不良贷款深渊，因此认为，本地银行股的跌势未见尽头，如果经济萎缩10％，致坏账情况激增，股价可能跌破亚洲金融危机时历来最低水平。
1998年亚洲金融危机高峰期时，星展银行股价于1999年9月4日跌至2.90元的低点，大华银行则是在同年9月10日，以每股2.65元收低，而华侨银行同年9月3日跌至1.08元，历来最低。
Netresearch亚洲董事经理史各力（Kevin Scully）认为，本地银行股的下跌空间还很大，目前的坏账拨款远远落后欧美银行。由于大手笔减损坏账和债务，欧美银行如花旗银行、美国银行、巴克莱银行和苏格兰皇家银行的股价已锐减80％以上，花旗银行甚至一度沦为少过1美元的低价股。
本地银行第四季的不良贷款比例介于1.5％至2％，星展集团研究预计，坏账比例可能在今年提高至2.4％至2.7％，而在明年进一步上涨至2.6％至3.1％。
由于坏账情况料加剧，花旗集团证券研究指出，参考1985年和1998年的情况，银行股总会在熊市尾段跳水，因此提醒投资者不要太早行动，否则将损失惨重或影响回报。 分析师举例，一名投资者若在1998年5月，以6.28元买入市账率为0.77倍的星展银行股（等同于该股目前的市账率），三个月后，其股价竟跌破3元，耗损一半投资额。
虽然本地银行股现价相当吸引人，但花旗集团证券研究的研究显示，投资者若在经济走出谷底时才进场，回报会更丰厚。
三家银行当中，分析师普遍看淡星展银行。花旗集团证券研究认为，其今年的每股盈利可能减少10％至14％，主要因为贷款额减少、同业拆息率可能跌至45基点的历来最低水平，将打击盈利、坏账拨备提高以及香港和中国的资产素质下降。
同样不看好星展银行的德意志摩根建富证券研究部主任凌诚俊认为，其不良贷款比率可能会上升得比另外两家同行快，理由是它过去几年积极放贷，四年的贷款年复合增长率为15.9％，较另外两家银行的10.7％高，而且贷款增长一直都集中在制造业和普通商业等，在上个世纪90年代末造成银行不良贷款飙升的领域。
相比之下，大华银行过去四年把焦点放在房屋贷款上，而这方面坏账情况即使在经济萧条时期也不算太严重。此外，大华银行在第四季里的坏账拨款为三家银行当中最多。
至于华侨银行，虽然该银行增加对制造业的贷款，较整体贷款额增长来得多，但其14.9％一级资本(tier-1 capital)足够率非常高，无需通过配售新股提高来筹集资金。
在香港挂牌上市的汇丰银行股，由于英国母公司计划配售新股，股价昨天猛跌24.1％。
● 李韵琳 自雷曼兄弟事件以来，世界各地大小银行股跌跌不休，身价大缩水，本地三家银行股也无法幸免，身价锐减一半以上。虽然本地三家银行所受的打击不比欧美银行来得大，市值也超越了过去的龙头老大花旗银行，但星展银行和大华银行股价已跌至10年来低点，接近亚洲金融危机时的水平，华侨银行股价则退低至6年来低点。
本地股市昨天跌破1500点支持水平，由银行股领跌，一天内蒸发掉25亿6560万元市值。其中，大华银行股价跌幅最大，下滑7％或62分，报8.20元，是该股自1999年5月以来最低水平。
接着是星展银行，其股价下跌6.5％或45分，报6.45元，为1999年2月19日以来的低点；而华侨银行股价则跌破4元，下跌4.6％或19分，报3.95元，为2003年7月10日以来的最低水平。
相比2007年历来最高点，本地三家银行的股价已折去介于60％至70％之间的价值，让一些投资者犹豫该不该进场捡便宜？
银行股跌势未尽？
分析师指出，本地银行虽走出债务担保凭证曝险的坑，却掉入不良贷款深渊，因此认为，本地银行股的跌势未见尽头，如果经济萎缩10％，致坏账情况激增，股价可能跌破亚洲金融危机时历来最低水平。
1998年亚洲金融危机高峰期时，星展银行股价于1999年9月4日跌至2.90元的低点，大华银行则是在同年9月10日，以每股2.65元收低，而华侨银行同年9月3日跌至1.08元，历来最低。
Netresearch亚洲董事经理史各力（Kevin Scully）认为，本地银行股的下跌空间还很大，目前的坏账拨款远远落后欧美银行。由于大手笔减损坏账和债务，欧美银行如花旗银行、美国银行、巴克莱银行和苏格兰皇家银行的股价已锐减80％以上，花旗银行甚至一度沦为少过1美元的低价股。
本地银行第四季的不良贷款比例介于1.5％至2％，星展集团研究预计，坏账比例可能在今年提高至2.4％至2.7％，而在明年进一步上涨至2.6％至3.1％。
由于坏账情况料加剧，花旗集团证券研究指出，参考1985年和1998年的情况，银行股总会在熊市尾段跳水，因此提醒投资者不要太早行动，否则将损失惨重或影响回报。 分析师举例，一名投资者若在1998年5月，以6.28元买入市账率为0.77倍的星展银行股（等同于该股目前的市账率），三个月后，其股价竟跌破3元，耗损一半投资额。
虽然本地银行股现价相当吸引人，但花旗集团证券研究的研究显示，投资者若在经济走出谷底时才进场，回报会更丰厚。
三家银行当中，分析师普遍看淡星展银行。花旗集团证券研究认为，其今年的每股盈利可能减少10％至14％，主要因为贷款额减少、同业拆息率可能跌至45基点的历来最低水平，将打击盈利、坏账拨备提高以及香港和中国的资产素质下降。
同样不看好星展银行的德意志摩根建富证券研究部主任凌诚俊认为，其不良贷款比率可能会上升得比另外两家同行快，理由是它过去几年积极放贷，四年的贷款年复合增长率为15.9％，较另外两家银行的10.7％高，而且贷款增长一直都集中在制造业和普通商业等，在上个世纪90年代末造成银行不良贷款飙升的领域。
相比之下，大华银行过去四年把焦点放在房屋贷款上，而这方面坏账情况即使在经济萧条时期也不算太严重。此外，大华银行在第四季里的坏账拨款为三家银行当中最多。
至于华侨银行，虽然该银行增加对制造业的贷款，较整体贷款额增长来得多，但其14.9％一级资本(tier-1 capital)足够率非常高，无需通过配售新股提高来筹集资金。
在香港挂牌上市的汇丰银行股，由于英国母公司计划配售新股，股价昨天猛跌24.1％。
Monday, March 9, 2009
证券研究机构看淡 三大银行业务前景
（2009-03-09） ● 陈士铭 随着本地三大银行发布了08财年业绩，各家证券研究机构都表示不看好它们的业务前景，并建议投资者对银行股持谨慎的态度。
在全球金融海啸的沉重冲击下，三大银行集团在08财年都遭遇税后净利下滑的局面，而市场对银行业务目前的焦点也从债务担保凭证（CDO）的曝险转向不良贷款的攀升趋势。
德意志摩根建富证券研究认为，尽管三大银行在去年取得创纪录的净利息收入，贷款亏损准备金的增加却导致净利下降，预料贷款亏损准备金到了09财年还会进一步攀高，其中星展集团的不良贷款比率可能会上升得比另外两家同行快，理由是它的贷款增长一直都集中在制造业和普通商业等，在上个世纪90年代末造成银行不良贷款飙升的领域。
在三大银行中，德意志摩根建富证券预期大华银行的资产质量恶化程度将不会像另外两家同行那么严重。它的未来净利息收入有望维持在现水平，而它今年以来输于大市的股价表现也使它变得具有吸引力，因此获得“买入”评级，目标价为11.60元。至于星展集团和华侨银行，德意志摩根建富证券都给予“中性”评级，并把目标价分别定在8.50元和5元。
账面值可能滑到
亚洲金融危机时水平
星展集团研究认为，本地银行今年的展望依然不明朗。从正面来看，随着银行把风险因素加入借贷利率里，它们的净利息收益率（NIM）即使年比没有好转，也应能持稳。可是另一方面，它们的资产质量今年恐会恶化，银行接下来面对的最大风险就是全球衰退期会比预料的还漫长，以致银行的账面值可能会滑低到亚洲金融危机期间的水平。
在银行发布业绩后，星展集团研究已经把大华银行和华侨银行的2009财年到2010财年的盈利，分别减低7％和8％之间以及11％和13％之间，给予华侨银行“持有”评级，目标价为5.70元；对大华银行则基于其账面值显著恶化，给予它“持有”评级，目标价为11.20元。
联昌国际研究指除了星展集团外，大华银行和华侨银行的业绩都逊于预期。以去年第四季来说，星展集团和华侨银行的不良贷款比率上升到1.5％，而大华银行的比率更达到2％，预料企业破产将冲击经济，而失业率攀升也将造成消费者贷款的坏账增加。事实上，银行信用卡的迟付情况已经浮现，住宅相关贷款拖欠的压力看来日后也将出现。
考虑到经济衰退和准备金上升，联昌国际给予本地三家银行“跑输大市”的评级，短期而言只以星展集团作为首选对象，把它的目标价定在8.82元，理由是它的现价估值已经接近亚洲金融危机期间的低水平。至于华侨银行和大华银行，联昌国际把目标价分别定为5.15元和10.46元。 花旗集团证券研究也看淡本地银行股。它认为，本地银行股的现价是便宜，股价一般上在经济仍然在衰退时就回升，但历史纪录也显示即使在国内生产总值处于谷底前一个月买入，代价也可以很大。
根据花旗集团的预测，我国国内生产总值今年首季年比可萎缩达10％，在经历接下来两个季度的较小幅度萎缩后，才有望在第四季度恢复增长，也就是说目前离我国经济萎缩的结束还遥远。
此外，只要全球各地银行没有稳定下来，或是它们还有进一步的资本筹集行动，本地银行股的任何涨潮恐怕都无法持续很久，因此花旗集团建议“抛售”本地银行股，把星展集团、华侨银行和大华银行股的目标价分别定在7.50元、4.25元和9.80元。
在全球金融海啸的沉重冲击下，三大银行集团在08财年都遭遇税后净利下滑的局面，而市场对银行业务目前的焦点也从债务担保凭证（CDO）的曝险转向不良贷款的攀升趋势。
德意志摩根建富证券研究认为，尽管三大银行在去年取得创纪录的净利息收入，贷款亏损准备金的增加却导致净利下降，预料贷款亏损准备金到了09财年还会进一步攀高，其中星展集团的不良贷款比率可能会上升得比另外两家同行快，理由是它的贷款增长一直都集中在制造业和普通商业等，在上个世纪90年代末造成银行不良贷款飙升的领域。
在三大银行中，德意志摩根建富证券预期大华银行的资产质量恶化程度将不会像另外两家同行那么严重。它的未来净利息收入有望维持在现水平，而它今年以来输于大市的股价表现也使它变得具有吸引力，因此获得“买入”评级，目标价为11.60元。至于星展集团和华侨银行，德意志摩根建富证券都给予“中性”评级，并把目标价分别定在8.50元和5元。
账面值可能滑到
亚洲金融危机时水平
星展集团研究认为，本地银行今年的展望依然不明朗。从正面来看，随着银行把风险因素加入借贷利率里，它们的净利息收益率（NIM）即使年比没有好转，也应能持稳。可是另一方面，它们的资产质量今年恐会恶化，银行接下来面对的最大风险就是全球衰退期会比预料的还漫长，以致银行的账面值可能会滑低到亚洲金融危机期间的水平。
在银行发布业绩后，星展集团研究已经把大华银行和华侨银行的2009财年到2010财年的盈利，分别减低7％和8％之间以及11％和13％之间，给予华侨银行“持有”评级，目标价为5.70元；对大华银行则基于其账面值显著恶化，给予它“持有”评级，目标价为11.20元。
联昌国际研究指除了星展集团外，大华银行和华侨银行的业绩都逊于预期。以去年第四季来说，星展集团和华侨银行的不良贷款比率上升到1.5％，而大华银行的比率更达到2％，预料企业破产将冲击经济，而失业率攀升也将造成消费者贷款的坏账增加。事实上，银行信用卡的迟付情况已经浮现，住宅相关贷款拖欠的压力看来日后也将出现。
考虑到经济衰退和准备金上升，联昌国际给予本地三家银行“跑输大市”的评级，短期而言只以星展集团作为首选对象，把它的目标价定在8.82元，理由是它的现价估值已经接近亚洲金融危机期间的低水平。至于华侨银行和大华银行，联昌国际把目标价分别定为5.15元和10.46元。 花旗集团证券研究也看淡本地银行股。它认为，本地银行股的现价是便宜，股价一般上在经济仍然在衰退时就回升，但历史纪录也显示即使在国内生产总值处于谷底前一个月买入，代价也可以很大。
根据花旗集团的预测，我国国内生产总值今年首季年比可萎缩达10％，在经历接下来两个季度的较小幅度萎缩后，才有望在第四季度恢复增长，也就是说目前离我国经济萎缩的结束还遥远。
此外，只要全球各地银行没有稳定下来，或是它们还有进一步的资本筹集行动，本地银行股的任何涨潮恐怕都无法持续很久，因此花旗集团建议“抛售”本地银行股，把星展集团、华侨银行和大华银行股的目标价分别定在7.50元、4.25元和9.80元。
海峡时报指数(STI) Down to 1200
（2009-03-09）
● 银 本栏于今年2月9日曾论及指数若时间累积而蓄存动力，则指数可能回扯填补介于1991.07点至2059.39点间的缺口，过后再迅速下跌，这么一来就能挑战1197.85点了。可惜指数竟然无法回扯，反而渐渐下跌，2月23日终于跌穿了1570.23点直试1567.22点，而三波向上回扯也即提早结束了。过后继续下跌，截至3月6日指数已下试1495.50点，估计指数随时会跌穿去年10月28日所创下的1473.77点，再朝1205.31点前进，最终将跌穿1197.85点的支撑点才出现近乎500点的技术回扯，这样就能把残余资金彻底吞蚀。
● 银 本栏于今年2月9日曾论及指数若时间累积而蓄存动力，则指数可能回扯填补介于1991.07点至2059.39点间的缺口，过后再迅速下跌，这么一来就能挑战1197.85点了。可惜指数竟然无法回扯，反而渐渐下跌，2月23日终于跌穿了1570.23点直试1567.22点，而三波向上回扯也即提早结束了。过后继续下跌，截至3月6日指数已下试1495.50点，估计指数随时会跌穿去年10月28日所创下的1473.77点，再朝1205.31点前进，最终将跌穿1197.85点的支撑点才出现近乎500点的技术回扯，这样就能把残余资金彻底吞蚀。
Sunday, March 8, 2009
Double Bay Residences: 80 units of Simei condo sold
Posted by luxuryasiahome on March 7, 2009
UOL Group and Kheng Leong yesterday sold more than 80 units of their new Simei condominium Double Bay Residences on the first day of its preview, the companies said.
Units at the 646-unit, 99-year leasehold project went for $600-650 per square foot (psf), UOL group chief operating officer Liam Wee Sin told BT.
UOL and Kheng Leong paid some $296 psf per plot ratio for the site in Jan 2008.
Mr Liam is upbeat about future take-up for the project as well. ‘The response to the preview has been terrific and if the same momentum is sustained, we expect to sell at least 200 units by this weekend,’ he said.
UOL released 250 units during yesterday’s soft launch. The project will be officially launched on March 14.
Yesterday’s transaction prices were slightly lower than the indicative prices that agents were giving out last week - which were in the range of $650-680 psf.
Mr Liam said that the $600-$650 selling price will be maintained: ‘We are happy with the pricing and we have no intention of raising prices.’
One-bedroom apartments were priced at $420,000 to $480,000; two-bedders went for $570,000 to $620,000; three-bedders for $740,000 to $850,000; and four-bedroom units sold for $930,000 to $1.02 million.
Like with other recent launches, UOL is offering an interest absorption scheme to buyers, but this costs about 2 per cent more.
The project is expected to receive its temporary occupation permit in 2013.
Peter Ow, executive director for residential marketing at Knight Frank (which is marketing the project), said that most of the buyers were HDB upgraders. Units on higher floors were also proving to be more popular, he said.
Mr Liam pointed out that the last condo project in Simei was launched a decade ago.
‘So we believe there’s pent-up interest for condo living in the area,’ he said, noting that there is latent demand from owners of HDB five-room and executive flats in Bedok, Pasir Ris, Punggol, Sengkang and Tampines.
UOL and Kheng Leong also said that apartments will be fitted with ‘elegant finishings comparable to district 10 condos’, which they expect will be a selling point.
Two-thirds of Double Bay Residences are taken up by four swimming pools and landscape features such as a five-storey high waterfall, an elevated jacuzzi and a sports deck.
UOL Group and Kheng Leong also sold six shop units within the project at $1,150 psf to a single buyer.
Source : Business Times - 7 Mar 2009
Saturday, March 7, 2009
Double Bay Residences
Posted by luxuryasiahome on February 22, 2009
Location: Simei Street 4 (District 18)
Tenure: Leasehold 99 years w.e.f 4 April 2008
Expected Completion: Dec 2013
Site Area: 32,210.50 sq m
Total Units: 646
Unit Types:
1 bedroom (538 - 635sqft)
2 bedroom (915 - 1335sqft)
2 bedroom + study (1001 - 1765sqft)
3 bedroom (1259 - 1765sqft)
3 bedroom + study (1830 - 2142sqft)
4 bedroom (1550 - 2379sqft)
Duplex (3606 - 3703sf)
Penthouse (2982 - 3488sqft)
Ancillary Shop (226 - 538sqft)
Facilities: Full Condo Facilites with Sport Deck and Retail Component, Elevated Jacuzzi, Jungle Spa, Lagoon Pool, 50 m Lap Pool, Large Clubhouse with Library, Music Rooms
Description:
- 5 minutes walk to Simei MRT Station
- Convenient neighbourhood amenities including Eastpoint Mall, Tampines Mall, Century Square and 2 upcoming ones in Tampines & Changi Business Park
- Renowned schools within 1 km including Chongzheng Primary School and Singapore 4th University ( Completed by 2013), United World College
- 3 MRT stops to Changi Airport
本地楼市又见人潮
（2009-03-07）
● 李韵琳
虽然经济持续恶化，但看屋热潮不退、人潮不减，买屋者丝毫不手软。本周开始预售的两个项目在周末之前已卖出超过120个新单位，示范单位还挤了近千人。
一些项目
看的人多买的人少
然而，不是每个新项目都像带动这轮楼市热潮的水之轩（Caspian）和Alexis项目一样被火速抢购，一些项目看的人多，但买的人少。据了解，上个星期推出的The Beverly共管公寓，参观人潮旺，但销售情况并不如预期，而城市发展位于白沙的莉雅苑(Livia)公寓，虽然三个星期前削价5％出售，但30个促销单位当中，至今只有约一半的单位成功找到买家。
华业集团（UOL）与黄祖耀私人房地产支部——庆隆（Kheng Leong）发展的Double Bay Residences，以及丰运发展(Fortune Development)的Mercury@Shanghai Road，本周新登场。
99年地契的Double Bay Residences坐落于四美4街、四美地铁站附近，拥有646个单位，是继水之轩之后推出的最大规模项目。该项目昨天开始预售，第一天便迎来近千人参观，卖出超过80个单位，与水之轩头一天的成绩不相上下。
预售反应令人鼓舞
华业集团营运总裁粘为信告诉本报，预售反应令人鼓舞，如果能继续吸引同样的人潮前来，本周末预计能为至少200个单位找到买家。
他说：“Double Bay Residences是四美一带相隔10年后推出的第一个公寓项目，而我们的调查显示，四美一带的组屋价格要比勿洛、淡滨尼等来得高，因此相信这一带存在对公寓的积压需求(pent-up demand)。我们锁定东部的组屋提升者，并希望为他们把豪华公寓带到组屋区。目前为止，我们的买家以居住在东部的人占多数。”
预计在2013年完工的Double Bay Residences，由九座高12层楼和5座高13层楼的建筑组成，售价介于每平方英尺600元至650元之间，九成的单位售价在100万元以下。最小的一卧房单位售价从42万元起，两卧房式则从57万元起，最大的四卧房式单位售价最高售价为102万元。
华业集团与庆隆去年一月开价2亿3605万元，即容积率每平方英尺296元，击败星狮地产(Frasers Centrepoint)和职总安居标下这幅地段。
粘为信表示，集团未颁发建筑工程合约，无法给予回本价。由于该项目设施和装潢较高档次，包括人工瀑布、四个不同主题的游泳池、气动垃圾输送系统等，市场认为，其建筑成本预计比水之轩高一些，估计约280元，使其回本价为580元左右。
负责销售的莱坊（KnightFrank），其私宅部执行董事区国培表示，大部分的买家计划自住，但一部分买家则看准项目靠近樟宜商业园、第四所大学及世界联合学院（UWC）的新校舍，打算日后出租。
Double Bay Residences有提供发展商在完工前替买家支付利息的利息承担计划(IAS)，但若申请该计划，买家需多付2％。
另一方面，位于里峇峇利一带的永久地契项目Mercury@Shanghai Road，共有67个单位，过去两天预售便卖出43个单位，或65％，平均售价为每平方英尺1080元。
Mercury最小的一卧房加书房单位面积为635平方英尺，售价72万9000元，最大的1926平方英尺，两卧房加书房加私人屋顶花园单位售价则约200万元。
削价最具吸引力
据了解，发展商见Alexis热卖，决定削价28％，以接近Alexis的价格将项目推出。
市场人士指出，Mercury离地铁站有一段路，但依然叫卖，看来削价还是最实际、最具吸引力。
未来两个星期内可能上市的新项目为城市发展位于汤申路的The Arte。
永久地契的The Arte共有336个单位，预计在2012年完工，平均售价为每平方英尺950元，最小的两卧房式单位从100万元起，最大的空中别墅，面积介于2616至4015平方英尺，最高售价预计为380万元左右。
● 李韵琳
虽然经济持续恶化，但看屋热潮不退、人潮不减，买屋者丝毫不手软。本周开始预售的两个项目在周末之前已卖出超过120个新单位，示范单位还挤了近千人。
一些项目
看的人多买的人少
然而，不是每个新项目都像带动这轮楼市热潮的水之轩（Caspian）和Alexis项目一样被火速抢购，一些项目看的人多，但买的人少。据了解，上个星期推出的The Beverly共管公寓，参观人潮旺，但销售情况并不如预期，而城市发展位于白沙的莉雅苑(Livia)公寓，虽然三个星期前削价5％出售，但30个促销单位当中，至今只有约一半的单位成功找到买家。
华业集团（UOL）与黄祖耀私人房地产支部——庆隆（Kheng Leong）发展的Double Bay Residences，以及丰运发展(Fortune Development)的Mercury@Shanghai Road，本周新登场。
99年地契的Double Bay Residences坐落于四美4街、四美地铁站附近，拥有646个单位，是继水之轩之后推出的最大规模项目。该项目昨天开始预售，第一天便迎来近千人参观，卖出超过80个单位，与水之轩头一天的成绩不相上下。
预售反应令人鼓舞
华业集团营运总裁粘为信告诉本报，预售反应令人鼓舞，如果能继续吸引同样的人潮前来，本周末预计能为至少200个单位找到买家。
他说：“Double Bay Residences是四美一带相隔10年后推出的第一个公寓项目，而我们的调查显示，四美一带的组屋价格要比勿洛、淡滨尼等来得高，因此相信这一带存在对公寓的积压需求(pent-up demand)。我们锁定东部的组屋提升者，并希望为他们把豪华公寓带到组屋区。目前为止，我们的买家以居住在东部的人占多数。”
预计在2013年完工的Double Bay Residences，由九座高12层楼和5座高13层楼的建筑组成，售价介于每平方英尺600元至650元之间，九成的单位售价在100万元以下。最小的一卧房单位售价从42万元起，两卧房式则从57万元起，最大的四卧房式单位售价最高售价为102万元。
华业集团与庆隆去年一月开价2亿3605万元，即容积率每平方英尺296元，击败星狮地产(Frasers Centrepoint)和职总安居标下这幅地段。
粘为信表示，集团未颁发建筑工程合约，无法给予回本价。由于该项目设施和装潢较高档次，包括人工瀑布、四个不同主题的游泳池、气动垃圾输送系统等，市场认为，其建筑成本预计比水之轩高一些，估计约280元，使其回本价为580元左右。
负责销售的莱坊（KnightFrank），其私宅部执行董事区国培表示，大部分的买家计划自住，但一部分买家则看准项目靠近樟宜商业园、第四所大学及世界联合学院（UWC）的新校舍，打算日后出租。
Double Bay Residences有提供发展商在完工前替买家支付利息的利息承担计划(IAS)，但若申请该计划，买家需多付2％。
另一方面，位于里峇峇利一带的永久地契项目Mercury@Shanghai Road，共有67个单位，过去两天预售便卖出43个单位，或65％，平均售价为每平方英尺1080元。
Mercury最小的一卧房加书房单位面积为635平方英尺，售价72万9000元，最大的1926平方英尺，两卧房加书房加私人屋顶花园单位售价则约200万元。
削价最具吸引力
据了解，发展商见Alexis热卖，决定削价28％，以接近Alexis的价格将项目推出。
市场人士指出，Mercury离地铁站有一段路，但依然叫卖，看来削价还是最实际、最具吸引力。
未来两个星期内可能上市的新项目为城市发展位于汤申路的The Arte。
永久地契的The Arte共有336个单位，预计在2012年完工，平均售价为每平方英尺950元，最小的两卧房式单位从100万元起，最大的空中别墅，面积介于2616至4015平方英尺，最高售价预计为380万元左右。
Friday, March 6, 2009
奥巴马跟伊梅尔特是一路货色
（美国）华尔街日报 (2009-03-06) 你一定想知道巴拉克?奥巴马(Barack Obama)周二为什么说从长远看现在是买进股票的好时机。
奥巴马政府准备跟华尔街重修于好？他害怕股市继续走低？还是难以抵御宣布市场触底的诱惑？
不管出于什么动机，奥巴马都应当反省自己盲目看涨的言论。最近，在华尔街，那些试图对抗熊市的反向投资者已经没有立足之地了。
对一位试图为站不住脚的预算辩护的总统来说也是如此。
现在，如果说还有什么人可能跟反向投资者产生共鸣，那就是我了。
我一直认为华尔街并非全知全能，好的公司应当操心自己的业务，股价自然会随之而动。
但过去这一年半对于看涨的反向投资者来说尤其难熬。我所能回忆起来的每一次事例都证明了看跌者是对的。
不管是哪家公司－－管它是贝尔斯登(Bear Stearns)、Countrywide、房利美(Fannie Mae)和房地美(Freddie Mac)、雷曼(Lehman)、美国国际集团(AIG)、花旗(Citi)、美林(Merrill Lynch)、美国银行(Bank of America)还是如今的通用电气(General Electric.)。
管它哪个市场－－全球所有股市，资产担保证券、信用违约掉期、抵押担保证券、债权抵押证券市场以及绝大多数其他类型的信贷市场。
随便一类经济数据也一样－－房价、新建房屋数量、油价、失业率或是国内生产总值(GDP)增幅。
要是逆潮流而动，那你的投资成果肯定好不了。
拿我来说吧。去年夏秋两季，我以接近19美元的平均价格购买了金融类股的上市交易基金XLF，最终在11月的时候半价脱手了绝大部分。
2月初的时候，我提示说，通用电气(GE)的伊梅尔特(Jeff Immelt)肯定是知道一些市场所不知道的事。如果不是这样的话，在当时那么糟糕的形势下他怎么可能这么坚决地维持派息不变？
三个星期后，他就将通用的派息削减了近70%。
不幸的是，我将奥巴马的“买进”呼吁和伊梅尔特维持派息的做法归为了同一类。二者都是很大程度上基于信念而非事实的善意举动，而市场将无可避免地证明它们是错的。
通用的声誉和伊梅尔特的保证意味着，通用电气半年前得到了投资者的“宽大处理”。但市场对通用电气的资产负债表和整个经济的状况知晓越多，通用电气股价就跌得越狠。
奥巴马面临的情形也是一样。投资者愿意相信他。大选后第二天，道指飙升至9600点以上。而现在，在奥巴马公布预算案之后，道指已经降至6800点，下跌了30%。
投资者对经济状况和奥巴马对此的计划了解越多，他们给股市前景打的分也就越低。
奥巴马的加税和轻商政策已经动摇了投资者的信心。金融界觉得他的预算案靠不住。失业率最高不会超过9%？明年GDP增幅高于3%？金融界觉得做不到。
当然，金融界的反复多变是出了名的。但奥巴马将市场简单地说成是“每天起伏波动”的指示剂，或是对美国经济困境的“本能反应”，那是没有了解市场最近表达的信息。
过去12个交易日股市有11天下跌，奥巴马预算案公布后更是连续5天下挫。这可不是“起伏波动”。这是市场在宣告形势紧急。
奥巴马或许应该跟伊梅尔特谈谈。过去一年里，伊梅尔特在33美元、15美元以及不久前的8.26美元价位都曾买进过通用电气的股票。现在通用电气股票价格不到6.50美元。
反向买进的结果就是这样。奥巴马总统，请注意了。 Evan Newmark
奥巴马政府准备跟华尔街重修于好？他害怕股市继续走低？还是难以抵御宣布市场触底的诱惑？
不管出于什么动机，奥巴马都应当反省自己盲目看涨的言论。最近，在华尔街，那些试图对抗熊市的反向投资者已经没有立足之地了。
对一位试图为站不住脚的预算辩护的总统来说也是如此。
现在，如果说还有什么人可能跟反向投资者产生共鸣，那就是我了。
我一直认为华尔街并非全知全能，好的公司应当操心自己的业务，股价自然会随之而动。
但过去这一年半对于看涨的反向投资者来说尤其难熬。我所能回忆起来的每一次事例都证明了看跌者是对的。
不管是哪家公司－－管它是贝尔斯登(Bear Stearns)、Countrywide、房利美(Fannie Mae)和房地美(Freddie Mac)、雷曼(Lehman)、美国国际集团(AIG)、花旗(Citi)、美林(Merrill Lynch)、美国银行(Bank of America)还是如今的通用电气(General Electric.)。
管它哪个市场－－全球所有股市，资产担保证券、信用违约掉期、抵押担保证券、债权抵押证券市场以及绝大多数其他类型的信贷市场。
随便一类经济数据也一样－－房价、新建房屋数量、油价、失业率或是国内生产总值(GDP)增幅。
要是逆潮流而动，那你的投资成果肯定好不了。
拿我来说吧。去年夏秋两季，我以接近19美元的平均价格购买了金融类股的上市交易基金XLF，最终在11月的时候半价脱手了绝大部分。
2月初的时候，我提示说，通用电气(GE)的伊梅尔特(Jeff Immelt)肯定是知道一些市场所不知道的事。如果不是这样的话，在当时那么糟糕的形势下他怎么可能这么坚决地维持派息不变？
三个星期后，他就将通用的派息削减了近70%。
不幸的是，我将奥巴马的“买进”呼吁和伊梅尔特维持派息的做法归为了同一类。二者都是很大程度上基于信念而非事实的善意举动，而市场将无可避免地证明它们是错的。
通用的声誉和伊梅尔特的保证意味着，通用电气半年前得到了投资者的“宽大处理”。但市场对通用电气的资产负债表和整个经济的状况知晓越多，通用电气股价就跌得越狠。
奥巴马面临的情形也是一样。投资者愿意相信他。大选后第二天，道指飙升至9600点以上。而现在，在奥巴马公布预算案之后，道指已经降至6800点，下跌了30%。
投资者对经济状况和奥巴马对此的计划了解越多，他们给股市前景打的分也就越低。
奥巴马的加税和轻商政策已经动摇了投资者的信心。金融界觉得他的预算案靠不住。失业率最高不会超过9%？明年GDP增幅高于3%？金融界觉得做不到。
当然，金融界的反复多变是出了名的。但奥巴马将市场简单地说成是“每天起伏波动”的指示剂，或是对美国经济困境的“本能反应”，那是没有了解市场最近表达的信息。
过去12个交易日股市有11天下跌，奥巴马预算案公布后更是连续5天下挫。这可不是“起伏波动”。这是市场在宣告形势紧急。
奥巴马或许应该跟伊梅尔特谈谈。过去一年里，伊梅尔特在33美元、15美元以及不久前的8.26美元价位都曾买进过通用电气的股票。现在通用电气股票价格不到6.50美元。
反向买进的结果就是这样。奥巴马总统，请注意了。 Evan Newmark
美国股市周四再大跌 道指创12年新低
(2009-03-06) （联合早报网讯）通用汽车可能将申请破产的消息、中国没如期出台新经济刺激措施、经济数据欠佳和投资者继续看淡金融股，导致美股周四大幅下跌。道琼斯指数与标准普尔500指数均创12年新低。
另外，美国劳工部周五将公布2月份非农支薪人数报告，也使投资者不敢贸然入场承担风险。MarketWatch机构调查的经济学家平均预期2月非农支薪人数将减少65万人，那将是近60年以来最严重的失业状况。这些经济学家平均预期美国2月份失业率将由7.6%上升至8%。
道琼斯指数暴跌281.40点，至6594.44点，跌幅4.1%；创出1997年4月15日以来的最低收盘点位。自2007年10月创出历史新高后，道琼斯指数累计下滑了53.4%
道指成份股通用汽车下跌34美分，至1.86美元。投资者担心通用汽车将不得不申请破产。该公司雇用的会计公司对其能否维持正常运营表示担忧。
纳斯达克综合指数跌54.15点至1299.59点，跌幅4%，创下2003年3月12日以来的最低收盘点位。。标准普尔500指数也下跌4.3%，至682.55点，创出熊市新低。所有类股均大幅下挫，金融类股以9.4%的跌幅领跌。花旗集团(Citigroup)股价盘中首次跌破1美元，收盘下挫9.7%。
经济数据方面，美国劳工部周四报告称，上周首次申请失业救济人数减少了3.1万人，经过季节性因素调整之后的人数降至63.9万人；但四周平均持续申请失业救济人数继续稳定增多，仍处在历史最高水平。
另外，美国劳工部周五将公布2月份非农支薪人数报告，也使投资者不敢贸然入场承担风险。MarketWatch机构调查的经济学家平均预期2月非农支薪人数将减少65万人，那将是近60年以来最严重的失业状况。这些经济学家平均预期美国2月份失业率将由7.6%上升至8%。
道琼斯指数暴跌281.40点，至6594.44点，跌幅4.1%；创出1997年4月15日以来的最低收盘点位。自2007年10月创出历史新高后，道琼斯指数累计下滑了53.4%
道指成份股通用汽车下跌34美分，至1.86美元。投资者担心通用汽车将不得不申请破产。该公司雇用的会计公司对其能否维持正常运营表示担忧。
纳斯达克综合指数跌54.15点至1299.59点，跌幅4%，创下2003年3月12日以来的最低收盘点位。。标准普尔500指数也下跌4.3%，至682.55点，创出熊市新低。所有类股均大幅下挫，金融类股以9.4%的跌幅领跌。花旗集团(Citigroup)股价盘中首次跌破1美元，收盘下挫9.7%。
经济数据方面，美国劳工部周四报告称，上周首次申请失业救济人数减少了3.1万人，经过季节性因素调整之后的人数降至63.9万人；但四周平均持续申请失业救济人数继续稳定增多，仍处在历史最高水平。
股民投资股市更谨慎 海指昨跌25点 (1518)
（2009-03-06）
● 林诗慧
由于中国昨日并未如同市场预期宣布新的大规模经济刺激计划，促使投资者感到失望，本地股市昨日下挫1.7％。
花旗集团投资研究部董事蔡学敏表示，随着我国经济衰退加剧，海峡时报指数可能进一步下挫约20％至1200点。尽管估值看似吸引人，海指却无法呈现具说服力的回弹。宏观经济情况必须先明显改善。
华侨银行财富管理也表示，它对股市展望所持有的态度较一个月前更加谨慎。去年第四季的经济与盈利基本面较预期来得差，而今年上半年的展望看似会进一步恶化，尽管各国政府皆推出经济振兴方案。
它建议害怕错失良机的投资者慢慢吸购股票。投资者必须做好准备面对接下来几个月更大的波动，并采取三到五年的投资策略，毕竟任何的实体经济或股市的复苏都不会在短期内出现。
海指昨日先扬后抑，早盘一度触及1564.83日内最高点（起20.49点），随后则扭头下挫至1516.19日内最低点（跌28.15点），闭市报1518.64点，收低25.70点，来到2003年8月以来最低收位。
新电信、星展集团和华侨银行领跌。星展集团挫跌15分至7.04元，来到1999年3月份以来最低水平。德意志摩根建富证券一名分析师表示，其坏账拨备增加的风险最高，因为它是本地三家银行中扩充贷款最快的银行。
华侨银行收低13分或3.1％至4.12元，全天最低水平为4.09元。它将发出一批新的债券，交换另一批即将在2011年到期的债券，以便改善银行的资本架构。
城市发展下挫24分至4.27元。摩根士丹利将该股的目标价削减35％至4.02元，预期本地住宅房地产的价格将进一步疲软。嘉德置地滑落6分至1.89元。吉宝置业跌6分或4.7％至1.21元。
随着纽约市场的原油期货价格升至一个月来最高水平，新航下滑28分至9.86元，较早前一度跌至9.78元。投资者担心它的燃料成本将增加。
全日股价跌比升多，上升股130只，下跌股244只，而没有变动的有856只。全场成交量减至10亿6624万股，总值也跌至8亿6631万元。
● 林诗慧
由于中国昨日并未如同市场预期宣布新的大规模经济刺激计划，促使投资者感到失望，本地股市昨日下挫1.7％。
花旗集团投资研究部董事蔡学敏表示，随着我国经济衰退加剧，海峡时报指数可能进一步下挫约20％至1200点。尽管估值看似吸引人，海指却无法呈现具说服力的回弹。宏观经济情况必须先明显改善。
华侨银行财富管理也表示，它对股市展望所持有的态度较一个月前更加谨慎。去年第四季的经济与盈利基本面较预期来得差，而今年上半年的展望看似会进一步恶化，尽管各国政府皆推出经济振兴方案。
它建议害怕错失良机的投资者慢慢吸购股票。投资者必须做好准备面对接下来几个月更大的波动，并采取三到五年的投资策略，毕竟任何的实体经济或股市的复苏都不会在短期内出现。
海指昨日先扬后抑，早盘一度触及1564.83日内最高点（起20.49点），随后则扭头下挫至1516.19日内最低点（跌28.15点），闭市报1518.64点，收低25.70点，来到2003年8月以来最低收位。
新电信、星展集团和华侨银行领跌。星展集团挫跌15分至7.04元，来到1999年3月份以来最低水平。德意志摩根建富证券一名分析师表示，其坏账拨备增加的风险最高，因为它是本地三家银行中扩充贷款最快的银行。
华侨银行收低13分或3.1％至4.12元，全天最低水平为4.09元。它将发出一批新的债券，交换另一批即将在2011年到期的债券，以便改善银行的资本架构。
城市发展下挫24分至4.27元。摩根士丹利将该股的目标价削减35％至4.02元，预期本地住宅房地产的价格将进一步疲软。嘉德置地滑落6分至1.89元。吉宝置业跌6分或4.7％至1.21元。
随着纽约市场的原油期货价格升至一个月来最高水平，新航下滑28分至9.86元，较早前一度跌至9.78元。投资者担心它的燃料成本将增加。
全日股价跌比升多，上升股130只，下跌股244只，而没有变动的有856只。全场成交量减至10亿6624万股，总值也跌至8亿6631万元。
首年利率1.6％比市场低一半 马行推出最低利率房贷
（2009-03-06） ● 李韵琳 虽然银行同业拆息率（SIBOR）今年以来一直保持在近历来最低水平，但房屋贷款利率没有应声下调，反而呈现上升的趋势。马来亚银行昨天破框，率先推出市场上最低利率的三年固定利率（fixed rate）房贷配套，这是否将引发房贷利率削价战？
马来亚银行推出新的三年固定利率房贷配套，第一、二、三年的利率分别定在1.6％、2.2％和2.9％，首年利率比市场平均为3.25％以上的固定利率相比，低了一半。
马来亚银行零售银行业务主管梁佩珠说：“目前的SIBOR接近2003年7月的10年历史最低水平，而过去三年的波动幅度最高为3％。SIBOR不能保证会持续往下滑，在不稳定的市场中推出固定利率房贷配套相信能让购屋者高枕无忧。”
SIBOR指的银行间的短期资金借贷利率，间接影响银行给出的房屋贷款利率。随着美联储几度降息，本地三个月SIBOR从去年9月的2.23％走低至昨天的0.7％。
尽管如此，由于资本成本和借贷风险提高，大多数银行在计算房贷利率时追加的加价幅度（spread）却从0.7％，提高到1.25％至1.75％，导致以SIBOR或新元掉期利率（SOR）等挂钩的浮动贷款利率达2.25％以上。
马来亚银行去年2月也推出类似的促销配套，之后掀起了房贷削价战。不过，业内人士认为，马来亚银行这次先发制人引爆利率战的可能性不大。
考虑到SIBOR处于历来最低水平，而信贷市场依然吃紧，业内人士指出，参与削价战对银行不合算，相信不会仿效。
贷款咨询网站www.HousingLoanSG.com的创办人吴加万表示，马来亚银行那么做相信是希望能争取新客户，但对于已经拥有显著市场占有率的本地银行，若跟着降息，盈利可能下降。
他也指出，马来亚银行这个年平均贷款利率为2.23％的促销配套贷款额最高达估价的70％，市面上的其他贷款配套最高贷款额则达估价的80％，假设购买的是间价值60万元的房子，若申请新促销配套，购屋者需要多支付6万元的现金。此外，该配套也只供自住购屋者申请。
过去两年，本地银行陆续推出的房贷配套和多种利率挂钩。另一业内人士指出，市面固定利率配套最短“锁定期”为一年，若认为SIBOR未来两三年会保持在目前的低水平，客户不会被三年定息配套的渐式利率套牢。 比如花旗银行提供的12个月SIBOR挂钩配套，相等于一年的固定利率配套，利息为1.74％至2.19％（0.9375％+0.8％至1.25％）。
标榜透明房屋贷款配套的星展银行，提供与银行同业拆息率或公积金普通户头的2.5％年利率挂钩的贷款配套。
对于目前是否应从申请浮动利率转而申请固定利率房贷，渣打银行新加坡零售银行产品总经理邱鼎和说：“贷款是长期的承诺，客户应根据它们的风险承担能力和经济条件作出选择。若客户希望享有保障和稳定性，应选择固定配套，但客户不应该专注于头一年的优惠利率，而应考虑总平均利息。另一方面，如果客户要求透明利率又不介意利率波动，则应选择SIBOR挂钩配套。”
此外，吴加万提醒，三年定息利率配将套锁住客户三年，如果这期间要卖房，需付“罚款”。
马来亚银行推出新的三年固定利率房贷配套，第一、二、三年的利率分别定在1.6％、2.2％和2.9％，首年利率比市场平均为3.25％以上的固定利率相比，低了一半。
马来亚银行零售银行业务主管梁佩珠说：“目前的SIBOR接近2003年7月的10年历史最低水平，而过去三年的波动幅度最高为3％。SIBOR不能保证会持续往下滑，在不稳定的市场中推出固定利率房贷配套相信能让购屋者高枕无忧。”
SIBOR指的银行间的短期资金借贷利率，间接影响银行给出的房屋贷款利率。随着美联储几度降息，本地三个月SIBOR从去年9月的2.23％走低至昨天的0.7％。
尽管如此，由于资本成本和借贷风险提高，大多数银行在计算房贷利率时追加的加价幅度（spread）却从0.7％，提高到1.25％至1.75％，导致以SIBOR或新元掉期利率（SOR）等挂钩的浮动贷款利率达2.25％以上。
马来亚银行去年2月也推出类似的促销配套，之后掀起了房贷削价战。不过，业内人士认为，马来亚银行这次先发制人引爆利率战的可能性不大。
考虑到SIBOR处于历来最低水平，而信贷市场依然吃紧，业内人士指出，参与削价战对银行不合算，相信不会仿效。
贷款咨询网站www.HousingLoanSG.com的创办人吴加万表示，马来亚银行那么做相信是希望能争取新客户，但对于已经拥有显著市场占有率的本地银行，若跟着降息，盈利可能下降。
他也指出，马来亚银行这个年平均贷款利率为2.23％的促销配套贷款额最高达估价的70％，市面上的其他贷款配套最高贷款额则达估价的80％，假设购买的是间价值60万元的房子，若申请新促销配套，购屋者需要多支付6万元的现金。此外，该配套也只供自住购屋者申请。
过去两年，本地银行陆续推出的房贷配套和多种利率挂钩。另一业内人士指出，市面固定利率配套最短“锁定期”为一年，若认为SIBOR未来两三年会保持在目前的低水平，客户不会被三年定息配套的渐式利率套牢。 比如花旗银行提供的12个月SIBOR挂钩配套，相等于一年的固定利率配套，利息为1.74％至2.19％（0.9375％+0.8％至1.25％）。
标榜透明房屋贷款配套的星展银行，提供与银行同业拆息率或公积金普通户头的2.5％年利率挂钩的贷款配套。
对于目前是否应从申请浮动利率转而申请固定利率房贷，渣打银行新加坡零售银行产品总经理邱鼎和说：“贷款是长期的承诺，客户应根据它们的风险承担能力和经济条件作出选择。若客户希望享有保障和稳定性，应选择固定配套，但客户不应该专注于头一年的优惠利率，而应考虑总平均利息。另一方面，如果客户要求透明利率又不介意利率波动，则应选择SIBOR挂钩配套。”
此外，吴加万提醒，三年定息利率配将套锁住客户三年，如果这期间要卖房，需付“罚款”。
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
匯豐控股(00005):復牌暴跌近19%李嘉誠等富豪支持供股計劃
鉅亨網新聞中心 (來源：財匯資訊，摘自：每日經濟新聞)03/04 13:11
在創下1987年10月「黑色星期一」以來最大單日跌幅之後，匯控也不出意外的成為昨日大盤最大拖累。統計數據顯示，僅匯控一隻股份就拖累恆指下跌273.69點，占指數全日跌幅的96.5%。而令人略感欣慰的是，被香港媒體稱為匯控「世紀大供股」的再融資計劃已經獲得李嘉誠在內的多位富豪股東的支持。
匯控復牌重挫近19%
匯控昨日以45.95港元開盤，較上週五收盤價暴跌19.3%，隨後股價很快探低至全日最低價45.9港元，全日收報46.25港元，跌幅18.79%，股價再創十年新低。分析人士指出，對匯控復牌大跌並不感到意外。週一匯控在倫敦市場急挫約19%，至1998年10月來最低收盤水準；在美股上市的匯控存托憑證也暴跌了18.82%。昨日的拋空交易數據則顯示，匯控成為全天賣空額最高的個股，達到8.32億港元，佔整個市場拋空額的21.31%。
業績顯著下滑的匯控於本週一宣佈，將按每股2.54英鎊(約合28港元)價格發行51億股股份，供股價較上週五匯控收盤價4.9125英鎊折讓48%。所謂供股，是指公司按照一定的供股比例向現有股東發行新股，股東可以按自己的持股量去認購股票。
匯控此次選擇12供5的方式，以每手匯控400股計算，投資人每持一手股份可按每股28港元的供股價認購165股新股。當然，供股並不是強制性的，不想參與供股的股東可以將手中的「供股權」賣給他人。業內人士透露，匯控的供股權將在本月23日至31日期間進行交易。
李嘉誠等富豪承諾參與供股
儘管匯控的供股計劃讓港股大盤「面容失色」，但約五折的供股價還是贏得不少股東的支持，其中也包括多位香港富豪。
據報道，長江實業(00001，)主席李嘉誠承諾包銷最多3億美元(約合23.3億港元)的供股股份。長江實業發言人稱，李嘉誠會以私人名義參與供股計劃，主要是對匯控前景有信心。
在香港股壇同樣頗具影響力的恆基地產(00012，)主席李兆基則公開表示，「匯控以每股28港元供股，實在非常便宜。」據悉，李兆基通過私人投資公司兆基財經包銷逾20萬手(8357萬股)股份，總價值約23.4億港元。李兆基強調，「匯控根基雄厚，穩健作風一直令人敬重，供股後匯控一級資本充足比率提升到9.8%，而大幅縮減美國匯豐融資業務也十分正確，所以樂於參與供股。」
除了李嘉誠和李兆基外，新世界發展(00017，)主席鄭裕彤也是匯控的忠實擁躉。據報道，鄭裕彤也已表示願意供股，主要是看好匯控前景，但不願透露持股量。
不過，時富金融投資研究部董事羅尚沛提醒投資人，匯控此次的供股計劃適合打算長期持有的投資人，若抱有短炒心態則不宜供股。
大行看法偏負面
匯控的全年業績報告也改變了不少大行對該股的看法。
美林將匯控的目標價調低了41.2%，至42.91港元，並維持「跑輸大市」評級。該行指出，儘管供股將緩解部分投資者對匯控資本需求的擔憂，但是大量不利的宏觀因素決定了目前還不是對該股持積極看法的時候。德意志銀行則將匯控目標價由56.95港元削減至37.5港元，今明兩年的每股盈利預測則分別調低59%及38%，以反映供股及信貸質量惡化的影響。
至於早前已經大幅調低匯控盈利預測的摩根大通，則給予該股40港元目標價，評級為「減持」。高盛方面也表示，正在檢討匯控的投資評級、目標價及盈利預測。該行原先給予匯控「賣出」評級，並將其列入「確信賣出」名單，目標價為49港元。
國際評級機構惠譽表示，預期匯控旗下美國匯豐融資今年的撥備水平仍然偏高，因為美國經濟及樓市將繼續下滑。惠譽指出，由於全球經濟疲弱，除美國外，匯控在其它市場的資產質素也轉壞，預期今年盈利能力將遜於去年下半年。至於匯控供股集資，惠譽認為，只能起到紓緩作用而並不能完全解決問題。另外，標準普爾將匯控前景展望評級為「負面」，並稱匯控今年盈利及資產負債表將繼續受壓。
在創下1987年10月「黑色星期一」以來最大單日跌幅之後，匯控也不出意外的成為昨日大盤最大拖累。統計數據顯示，僅匯控一隻股份就拖累恆指下跌273.69點，占指數全日跌幅的96.5%。而令人略感欣慰的是，被香港媒體稱為匯控「世紀大供股」的再融資計劃已經獲得李嘉誠在內的多位富豪股東的支持。
匯控復牌重挫近19%
匯控昨日以45.95港元開盤，較上週五收盤價暴跌19.3%，隨後股價很快探低至全日最低價45.9港元，全日收報46.25港元，跌幅18.79%，股價再創十年新低。分析人士指出，對匯控復牌大跌並不感到意外。週一匯控在倫敦市場急挫約19%，至1998年10月來最低收盤水準；在美股上市的匯控存托憑證也暴跌了18.82%。昨日的拋空交易數據則顯示，匯控成為全天賣空額最高的個股，達到8.32億港元，佔整個市場拋空額的21.31%。
業績顯著下滑的匯控於本週一宣佈，將按每股2.54英鎊(約合28港元)價格發行51億股股份，供股價較上週五匯控收盤價4.9125英鎊折讓48%。所謂供股，是指公司按照一定的供股比例向現有股東發行新股，股東可以按自己的持股量去認購股票。
匯控此次選擇12供5的方式，以每手匯控400股計算，投資人每持一手股份可按每股28港元的供股價認購165股新股。當然，供股並不是強制性的，不想參與供股的股東可以將手中的「供股權」賣給他人。業內人士透露，匯控的供股權將在本月23日至31日期間進行交易。
李嘉誠等富豪承諾參與供股
儘管匯控的供股計劃讓港股大盤「面容失色」，但約五折的供股價還是贏得不少股東的支持，其中也包括多位香港富豪。
據報道，長江實業(00001，)主席李嘉誠承諾包銷最多3億美元(約合23.3億港元)的供股股份。長江實業發言人稱，李嘉誠會以私人名義參與供股計劃，主要是對匯控前景有信心。
在香港股壇同樣頗具影響力的恆基地產(00012，)主席李兆基則公開表示，「匯控以每股28港元供股，實在非常便宜。」據悉，李兆基通過私人投資公司兆基財經包銷逾20萬手(8357萬股)股份，總價值約23.4億港元。李兆基強調，「匯控根基雄厚，穩健作風一直令人敬重，供股後匯控一級資本充足比率提升到9.8%，而大幅縮減美國匯豐融資業務也十分正確，所以樂於參與供股。」
除了李嘉誠和李兆基外，新世界發展(00017，)主席鄭裕彤也是匯控的忠實擁躉。據報道，鄭裕彤也已表示願意供股，主要是看好匯控前景，但不願透露持股量。
不過，時富金融投資研究部董事羅尚沛提醒投資人，匯控此次的供股計劃適合打算長期持有的投資人，若抱有短炒心態則不宜供股。
大行看法偏負面
匯控的全年業績報告也改變了不少大行對該股的看法。
美林將匯控的目標價調低了41.2%，至42.91港元，並維持「跑輸大市」評級。該行指出，儘管供股將緩解部分投資者對匯控資本需求的擔憂，但是大量不利的宏觀因素決定了目前還不是對該股持積極看法的時候。德意志銀行則將匯控目標價由56.95港元削減至37.5港元，今明兩年的每股盈利預測則分別調低59%及38%，以反映供股及信貸質量惡化的影響。
至於早前已經大幅調低匯控盈利預測的摩根大通，則給予該股40港元目標價，評級為「減持」。高盛方面也表示，正在檢討匯控的投資評級、目標價及盈利預測。該行原先給予匯控「賣出」評級，並將其列入「確信賣出」名單，目標價為49港元。
國際評級機構惠譽表示，預期匯控旗下美國匯豐融資今年的撥備水平仍然偏高，因為美國經濟及樓市將繼續下滑。惠譽指出，由於全球經濟疲弱，除美國外，匯控在其它市場的資產質素也轉壞，預期今年盈利能力將遜於去年下半年。至於匯控供股集資，惠譽認為，只能起到紓緩作用而並不能完全解決問題。另外，標準普爾將匯控前景展望評級為「負面」，並稱匯控今年盈利及資產負債表將繼續受壓。
The bottom may soon be here.
SHORT VIEW作者：英国《金融时报》约翰•奥瑟兹(John Authers)The bottom may soon be here. This week's brutal sales of stocks across the world brought indices to historic levels. Harder questions are how far stocks must fall to get there, and how long it will take to climb out.In the US, stocks have shown a strong trend for more than a century, growing by 6.75 per cent per year after inflation, with income reinvested. London's Lombard Street Research points out there have been only 26 months in the past 140 years when the S&P 500 was further below this trend than it is now. All bar six, three each in 1932 and 1982, were caused by world wars.Those two years marked the lows of the worst bear markets of the last century. So stocks look likely to stop getting cheaper quite soon. But they could fall further before hitting bottom. In 1932, stocks fell 25 per cent more after becoming this cheap compared with trend – but then doubled in a matter of weeks.As for valuation, it is almost impossible to say that stocks are expensive. Cyclical earnings multiples, a reliable long-term value indicator, are now much cheaper than their average for the last century, although they again imply that one further big fall is possible before reaching their lows of 1932 and 1982. The sell-off goes beyond financials, as earnings multiples on non-financial stocks are approaching their lows from the last bear market. To take another measure, viewed in real terms, the S&P 500 was down 61.4 per cent at Monday's close since its peak in 2000. Its decline in real terms from 1929 to 1932 (when there was deflation) was 79 per cent, while the fall from 1969 to 1982 was 62.6 per cent. So any falls from here will be dictated by the economic data. And it is the strength of the economy that should dictate the speed of the recovery. After 1932, it took 26 years to regain the peak in real terms. After 1982, it took 10 years.
收购献议昨天截止 UOL对UIC持股不到50％
（2009-03-04） ● 吴慧敏 本地银行家黄祖耀通过华业集团(UOL)，对联合工业(UIC)提出的收购献议已在昨天截止。整个收购献议虽然因为没有超越50％的无条件收购门槛而宣告失败，但黄祖耀其实已经在过去一个半月内，将手头上的股份由30.3％提高至45.57％，成功超越菲律宾华商吴奕辉(Gokongwei)，一跃成为联合工业的最大股东。
一名市场分析员说：“大多数股东应该是看好这只股票的长期潜能，所以不愿接受每股1.20元的收购献议。”不过，这样的一个发展，对黄祖耀来说，或许是最理想的结果。
“他决定不延长收购献议，应该是对目前与吴奕辉之间的大约10％股权差距大致满意，不想多花钱来将控制权提升至50％以上。”
如果黄祖耀将他在联合工业的持股权提高到50％以上，就会触发无条件收购条例，必须向所有接受有关献议的股东买下它们手头上的股票。
更重要的是，它还可能要多花好几亿元，对联合工业旗下最大资产——新加坡置地(SingLand)，提出每股3.57元的强制性全面现金献购。联合工业目前握有新加坡置地大约70％股份。
截至昨天，连接受信也计算在内，华业集团一共握有联合工业48.94％的股份。但由于华业集团决定不延长收购献议的期限，整个收购献议因为没有超过50％的无条件收购门槛而宣告失败，这些接受信必须退还给股东，因此黄祖耀最后掌握的联合工业股份为45.6％。
根据交易所昨天的呈报，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)已经卖出手头上全部的1亿3030万4500股股票，即大约9.46％股份，目前不再是联合工业股东。
这证实了本报上星期六的独家报道，即华业集团在上星期五买下的1亿7753万股，即12.9％联合工业(UIC)股票，大多数来自摩根士丹利。
摩根士丹利原本是联合工业的第三大股东，持有大约12％股份。由于它在之前几个星期频频出票，将持股权逐步削减至9.46％，许多市场人士相信，它应该是因为全球金融大海啸的影响而决定脱售这批联合工业股份。这也因此为黄祖耀和吴奕辉在联合工业对掌对了十年，谁也压不倒谁的僵局，提供了破解的契机。
一名市场分析员说：“大多数股东应该是看好这只股票的长期潜能，所以不愿接受每股1.20元的收购献议。”不过，这样的一个发展，对黄祖耀来说，或许是最理想的结果。
“他决定不延长收购献议，应该是对目前与吴奕辉之间的大约10％股权差距大致满意，不想多花钱来将控制权提升至50％以上。”
如果黄祖耀将他在联合工业的持股权提高到50％以上，就会触发无条件收购条例，必须向所有接受有关献议的股东买下它们手头上的股票。
更重要的是，它还可能要多花好几亿元，对联合工业旗下最大资产——新加坡置地(SingLand)，提出每股3.57元的强制性全面现金献购。联合工业目前握有新加坡置地大约70％股份。
截至昨天，连接受信也计算在内，华业集团一共握有联合工业48.94％的股份。但由于华业集团决定不延长收购献议的期限，整个收购献议因为没有超过50％的无条件收购门槛而宣告失败，这些接受信必须退还给股东，因此黄祖耀最后掌握的联合工业股份为45.6％。
根据交易所昨天的呈报，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)已经卖出手头上全部的1亿3030万4500股股票，即大约9.46％股份，目前不再是联合工业股东。
这证实了本报上星期六的独家报道，即华业集团在上星期五买下的1亿7753万股，即12.9％联合工业(UIC)股票，大多数来自摩根士丹利。
摩根士丹利原本是联合工业的第三大股东，持有大约12％股份。由于它在之前几个星期频频出票，将持股权逐步削减至9.46％，许多市场人士相信，它应该是因为全球金融大海啸的影响而决定脱售这批联合工业股份。这也因此为黄祖耀和吴奕辉在联合工业对掌对了十年，谁也压不倒谁的僵局，提供了破解的契机。
住建部副部長齊驥:年輕同志最好租房住
兩岸網新聞中心 (來源：揚子晚報) 2009 / 03 / 04 星期三 10:31 上一則 下一則
房價究竟高不高？現在究竟是否應該買房？如何看待地方政府一系列所謂“救市”舉措？住房和城鄉建設部副部長齊驥在央視社會與法頻道《大家看法》兩會特別節目現場接受了本報記者的訪問。
建議：“剛性需求者抓住時機”
房價到底高不高？從2008年市場調整之後，購房者持幣觀望的現象就一直存在著。對這部分觀望人群，齊驥給出了自己的建議，“既然政策出了不少，促進樓市消費現在已經達成共識，我倒覺得，如果純粹是剛性需求的家庭，就應當利用這麼有限的政策時機，去處理好自己的購房問題。”
鼓勵：“年輕同志最好租房住”
在節目現場，有位大學生觀眾提了個問題，“大學生買房，能否有優惠？”齊驥回答，大學生買房是咱們國家的一種特殊現象，“因為有不少的年輕同志有一個好的父親或者好岳父，通過兩個家庭的家長來給年輕人提供一些首付，這有點中國的特色”。不過他卻認為，剛剛參加工作不久，比如說三年，或者更長一點，還是通過租賃的方式來解決比較好。“我們做了一個統計，無論是在發達國家還是在發展中國家，凡是實行住房商品化的國家，一般的家庭都要拿三分之一左右的收入來用於住房的開銷，很明顯，剛剛參加工作不久，你拿出三分之一去買房子，恐怕會買得很不理想。真不如租房子，那個自由的空間也屬於你。”
澄清：“從未說過救市二字”
針對公眾輿論中出現的所謂“政府救市”、“顧地產商不顧百姓”等觀點，齊驥在節目現場也專門作出了澄清。他笑稱自己從未說過“救市”二字。“去年12月份國務院131號檔說得很清楚，引導房地產開發企業，根據市場變化的需求主動採取措施，通過合理的價格促進住房銷售。”至於地方政府的一系列刺激樓市的措施，齊驥稱，“在目前法律法規的框架內，凡是有利於支持和鼓勵居民合理住房消費的，都應該給予支持。”他還透露，住房和城鄉建設部近期不會再出臺任何新的房地產調控政策。(本報特派記者石小磊 劉璞)
易憲容:百姓想買房最好等兩年
兩岸網新聞中心 (來源：廣州日報) 2009 / 03 / 04 星期三 10:29 上一則 下一則 Ads by Google永久PMP保證班最後加開班 www.pmtraining.com.tw 現在是不是買房的好時機？房地產市場需不需要政府出手相救？昨日（3日）下午4時，中國社科院金融研究所研究員、經濟學家易憲容做客廣州日報報網直播室，與網友一起探討備受關注的房價問題。這位“地產名嘴”建議，現在不需急於買房，因為房地產市場的調整需要5～6年時間，老百姓最好等到兩年後再買房。 房地產市場根本問題是泡沫
易憲容素以敢言著稱，為此得罪了不少地產商。在本報的報網直播室，他依舊不改其直言的本色。“房地產市場的調整需要5～6年時間，房價調整一般比經濟調整滯後半年到一年。除非是特別有錢的人，現在買房子就不要著急。民眾最好等到兩年後買房好一些。”易憲容旗幟鮮明地建議。
近些年來，房地產一直處於經濟生活的熱點。在易憲容看來，房地產市場的根本問題是發展過快，導致了房地產市場泡沫，導致了利益衝突。他說：“房地產企業對住房產品進行壟斷定價，把價格抬得很高，讓廣大消費者無法購買。在這種情況下，如果不抓住房地產業的主要矛盾，讓高房價的狀況一直維持下來，這肯定不行。”
房產市場一救市價格就反彈
易憲容主張，無論是去年還是今年，政府都不需要拯救房地產市場。去年的情況和今年的情況政府都不需要救市。他認為：“房地產市場不能救，一救就反彈。”
如果房地產商要提高銷量，把房子賣出去，該怎麼辦？易憲容認為就是降價。“按照市場經濟規律，你要把東西賣出去，主要就是調整價格，不要指望政府給你補助。如果東西只能賣50元，你卻希望政府通過政策讓別人花100元買，有人願意買嗎？大家肯定不會買。”他表示。
中國政府調控很及時
易憲容感歎，如果房地產市場2007年底不進行調整，中國內地的房地產泡沫破滅可能比上世紀90年代初的日本、1997年的香港還要厲害。
“美國在次貸危機前，10年之間房價只上漲50%。但廣州在很短時間內，房價起碼就上漲了兩倍，深圳可能漲了3倍，這個泡沫很厲害。”易憲容說：“但中央政府很明智，在2007年採取一系列措施，控制了房地產市場的信貸，房地產市場就出現了重大調整，泡沫就慢慢破了。”
購房入戶跟憲法相違背
他表示，購房入戶的做法，實際上是跟憲法相違背的，製造了一種對身份的歧視。“一個戶口表明在一個地方的身份。身份能用錢買嗎？而且還決定了你小孩上學，決定了怎麼受教育。如果這也賣錢，就出現了一個問題：這跟現代文明有衝突，文明社會每一個人都是平等的。我沒有20萬元買不起廣州的房子所以我沒有戶口。通過這種方式製造了一種對身份的歧視。”易憲容稱。他強調，這種做法跟憲法是有衝突的。
建議儘快制定公平的物業稅
易憲容認為，政府要儘快制定公平公正的物業稅，可以防止房地產的投機，保證房地產市場是以消費主導的市場。如果物業稅是公平公正的，絕大多數人都會是最大的受益者。但關鍵是物業稅由誰制定。 (曾向榮)
上海昔日樓王租金遭"腰斬"
鉅亨網新聞中心 (來源：財匯資訊，摘自：每日經濟新聞)2009 / 03 / 04 星期三 09:01 上一則 下一則 Ads by Google永久PMP保證班最後加開班 www.pmtraining.com.tw 保證考取PMP全球首創獲pmp+npdp+cbap國際三證照成為雙專長跨領域的兀型人 上海昔日「樓王」——上海新天地板塊的華府天地項目，「貴」氣不在，近期租金遭遇「腰斬」。而在另一上海地標性住宅——湯臣一品所在的陸家嘴區域，高檔住宅的租金也出現大幅下滑。 昨日，21世紀不動產銳豐新天地店高級經理高雲飛在接受《每日經濟新聞》採訪時表示，門店近期成交的一套300平方米左右的華府天地房源，月租金在4萬元，而在去年10月前，同類房源的租賃報價一直在8萬元/月。高雲飛同時表示，在新天地板塊中，大多租賃高檔房源的租賃價格，都出現了較大幅度的下調，下調幅度大約在30%左右。
昨日，來自漢宇地產的數據顯示，目前，陸家嘴區域內的世茂濱江花園、仁恆濱江花園項目，租賃空置率明顯提升，租金也下滑了近20%。比如世茂濱江園目前兩房租金在8000~10000元/月，比一年前下滑20%，成交量更是下滑了近七成；而仁恆河濱花園、財富海景等高端樓盤也存在這樣的現象。
在豪宅項目租金受影響時，有限的租金水平，讓區域內的中低端物業租賃市場受到青睞。
漢宇地產陸家嘴區域董事鄧洋表示，由於部分外資企業降低了管理人員的商務費用，部分租客已經降低了租房標準。在陸家嘴中端樓盤中，地理位置緊鄰高端樓盤的菊園等樓盤受益，成交租金和成交量穩中有升。
據悉，目前菊園的租金在5500~6000元/月，租賃成交比去年同期提升了近10%。同樣受益的還有在陸家嘴為數不多的老公房，由於租金相對較低，因而成為市場爭奪的對象。目前陸家嘴區域內的東昌新村35~40平方米的一室一廳，租金已經達到了1700~2000元/月，即使這麼高的租金水平，這裡的老公房依然「一房難求」。
漢宇地產市場部分析人士認為，在目前全球經濟危機尚未出現消退跡像之前，各路租客只有「捂緊錢袋過冬」，才能將自身的財務風險降至最低。所以，在可以預見的未來一段時間內，中低端市場會繼續活躍，2000~5000元/月的租金水平的房源，將受到市場的持續追捧。
昨日，來自漢宇地產的數據顯示，目前，陸家嘴區域內的世茂濱江花園、仁恆濱江花園項目，租賃空置率明顯提升，租金也下滑了近20%。比如世茂濱江園目前兩房租金在8000~10000元/月，比一年前下滑20%，成交量更是下滑了近七成；而仁恆河濱花園、財富海景等高端樓盤也存在這樣的現象。
在豪宅項目租金受影響時，有限的租金水平，讓區域內的中低端物業租賃市場受到青睞。
漢宇地產陸家嘴區域董事鄧洋表示，由於部分外資企業降低了管理人員的商務費用，部分租客已經降低了租房標準。在陸家嘴中端樓盤中，地理位置緊鄰高端樓盤的菊園等樓盤受益，成交租金和成交量穩中有升。
據悉，目前菊園的租金在5500~6000元/月，租賃成交比去年同期提升了近10%。同樣受益的還有在陸家嘴為數不多的老公房，由於租金相對較低，因而成為市場爭奪的對象。目前陸家嘴區域內的東昌新村35~40平方米的一室一廳，租金已經達到了1700~2000元/月，即使這麼高的租金水平，這裡的老公房依然「一房難求」。
漢宇地產市場部分析人士認為，在目前全球經濟危機尚未出現消退跡像之前，各路租客只有「捂緊錢袋過冬」，才能將自身的財務風險降至最低。所以，在可以預見的未來一段時間內，中低端市場會繼續活躍，2000~5000元/月的租金水平的房源，將受到市場的持續追捧。
Deutsche Bank Upgrades SAP AG (SAP) to Buy
March 2, 2009 8:11 AM EST
Deutsche Bank upgrades SAP AG (NYSE: SAP) to Buy, saying the risk-to-reward now favors a Buy after Street lowered expectations.
Deutsche analyst says, "In early 2009 we indicated the fundamental strengths of the business - earnings resilience from maintenance underpinning and cost saving potential. In balance, we perceived a better-entry point arising given we had some concerns Street was too optimistic for Q109. Street has now dropped to -23% for Q109 licence. Hence, the risk-to-reward balance is now strong enough to put SAP on our Buy list...Our forecasts (-20% licences vs prior low of -6% - constant currency) are more cautious than the market and loose management guidance - although we believe we have been notably conservative. Further, our scenario analysis indicates the group could potentially see a drop in licences of -30% in FY09 and still maintain earnings. Critically, the maintenance push-through from 2008 (with some FX help) means top-line should only drop c.3%. Cost-saves providing margin protection means we continue to see SAP as being a rare earnings-growth story through the cycle."
SAP AG together with its subsidiaries (SAP) is engaged in developing and licensing business software solutions.
Deutsche Bank upgrades SAP AG (NYSE: SAP) to Buy, saying the risk-to-reward now favors a Buy after Street lowered expectations.
Deutsche analyst says, "In early 2009 we indicated the fundamental strengths of the business - earnings resilience from maintenance underpinning and cost saving potential. In balance, we perceived a better-entry point arising given we had some concerns Street was too optimistic for Q109. Street has now dropped to -23% for Q109 licence. Hence, the risk-to-reward balance is now strong enough to put SAP on our Buy list...Our forecasts (-20% licences vs prior low of -6% - constant currency) are more cautious than the market and loose management guidance - although we believe we have been notably conservative. Further, our scenario analysis indicates the group could potentially see a drop in licences of -30% in FY09 and still maintain earnings. Critically, the maintenance push-through from 2008 (with some FX help) means top-line should only drop c.3%. Cost-saves providing margin protection means we continue to see SAP as being a rare earnings-growth story through the cycle."
SAP AG together with its subsidiaries (SAP) is engaged in developing and licensing business software solutions.
SAP CFO Brandt Says Company to Spend EU600 Million on Dividend
By Chris Malpass
March 2 (Bloomberg) -- SAP AG Chief Financial Officer Werner Brandt said the company plans to propose spending 600 million euros ($756 million) in dividend payments, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reported, citing an interview.
SAP aims to ensure that it will always have a liquidity reserve of about 1.5 billion euros even as a syndicated credit line of 1 billion expires in November, Brandt said. Last Updated: March 2, 2009 01:32 EST
March 2 (Bloomberg) -- SAP AG Chief Financial Officer Werner Brandt said the company plans to propose spending 600 million euros ($756 million) in dividend payments, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reported, citing an interview.
SAP aims to ensure that it will always have a liquidity reserve of about 1.5 billion euros even as a syndicated credit line of 1 billion expires in November, Brandt said. Last Updated: March 2, 2009 01:32 EST
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
全球股市昨日大跌
from FT中文网 - FTChinese.com by 英国《金融时报》保罗;戴维斯(Paul J. Davies)
伦敦报道
全球股市昨日全线下跌，因投资者对银行财务状况的担忧不断加剧，同时有一批企业减少派息。投资者争相买入相对安全的美元资产。
在华尔街，道琼斯指数12年来首次跌破7000点。
伦敦股市下挫，富时100指数跌至6年低点——以美元计为14年低点。前夜亚洲股市普遍大跌。
经纪公司CMC Markets股票部门主管吉米•叶芝(Jimmy Yates)表示：“这是股市在恐慌状态下的新一轮大屠杀！”
“如果不能迅速反弹，市场前景会变得更为悲观。”
昨日股市下跌是受到坏消息触发：汇丰银行(HSBC)决定以大幅折让的价格进行规模为125亿英镑的配股，同时撤离美国消费者贷款业务。银行类股领跌。汇丰跌18.8%；花旗(Citigroup)受到沉重打击，跌逾17%；美国银行(Bank of America)跌近15%；富国银行(Wells Fargo)跌逾12.5%。
在美国，处于困境中的全球保险巨头美国国际集团(AIG)公布，第四季度亏损617亿美元，创美国企业历史上最大亏损额，消息增强了市场上的悲观气氛。
此轮下跌突显出今年全球股市糟糕的开局。涵盖23个发达国家股市的摩根士丹利资本国际全球指数(MSCI World index)自1970年问世以来，今年是开局最差的一年。美国标准普尔500指数昨日下跌3.8%，日本日经225指数和香港恒生指数分别下跌3.81%和3.86%。
在伦敦市场，富时100指数(FTSE 100)昨日收盘下跌5.33%，自年初以来累计下跌18.2%。富时Eurofirst 300指数昨日跌4.9%，也触及6年低点。
削减股息企业的数量之多，令投资者受到惊吓。通用电气(General Electric)上周决定减少派息。汇丰银行除进行配股外，也减少了分红。在美国，PNC Financial和国际纸业(International Paper)也减少了派息。
译者/岱嵩
Developers need to launch properties to avoid holding costs
Posted by luxuryasiahome on March 2, 2009
Singapore homebuyers can expect more private residential properties to be launched in the coming months and at lower prices.
Analysts said that’s because developers are now torn between accepting either weaker profits or high costs of holding on to land.
Brisk sales seen in recent property launches like the Caspian can be credited to lower prices being offered by developers.
Units there were sold at about S$600 per square foot, or S$50 per square foot less than earlier planned.
Analysts said developers have little choice but to cut prices to move sales as the the cost of holding onto a piece of land can be expensive as well. A typical plot of land for mass market homes could chalk up more than S$500,000 of interest annually, including other costs.
Interest on land cost is typically about four to six per cent. Developers normally take a 60 per cent loan on land. This means a mid to mass market plot of land bought for S$20 million will accrue more than S$500,000 of interest in a year. There are other costs too.
Cheang Kok Kheong, COO, Development & Property, Frasers Centrepoint, said: “It’s very good price for the present economic situation and it really meets the kind of needs and budgets our customers have right now.
“We have committed our construction costs. We have gone ahead and developed it and we are looking at our cashflow to ensure that we can build the project on time with little financial difficulties.”
Frasers also wants cash for possible land acquisitions in the near term.
Other developers which have turned to cutting prices include City Developments. It recently launched a new phase of its Livia project in Pasir Ris at about S$620 per square foot, down from S$650 per square foot.
Meanwhile, GuocoLand relaunched its development near Buangkok MRT - the Quartz - at an average price of S$595 per square foot, more than eight per cent lower than the initial launch in 2007.
Another developer, MCL Land, recently made provisions to value its land near current market prices. Analysts said this is normally a prelude to a relaunch at lower prices. But they noted that developers will not keep prices low for too long.
Donald Han, managing director, Cushman & Wakefield, said: “Some obvious strategy would be to go out there, launch as much as you can, depending on where the quota is.
“Then once you hit a certain sales quota, you stop and then you relaunch it when the project can be launched at a better market sentiment and hopefully at a higher price as well.”
Most analysts believe the market will start to pick up in mid-2010.
Source : Channel NewsAsia - 2 Mar 2009
Singapore homebuyers can expect more private residential properties to be launched in the coming months and at lower prices.
Analysts said that’s because developers are now torn between accepting either weaker profits or high costs of holding on to land.
Brisk sales seen in recent property launches like the Caspian can be credited to lower prices being offered by developers.
Units there were sold at about S$600 per square foot, or S$50 per square foot less than earlier planned.
Analysts said developers have little choice but to cut prices to move sales as the the cost of holding onto a piece of land can be expensive as well. A typical plot of land for mass market homes could chalk up more than S$500,000 of interest annually, including other costs.
Interest on land cost is typically about four to six per cent. Developers normally take a 60 per cent loan on land. This means a mid to mass market plot of land bought for S$20 million will accrue more than S$500,000 of interest in a year. There are other costs too.
Cheang Kok Kheong, COO, Development & Property, Frasers Centrepoint, said: “It’s very good price for the present economic situation and it really meets the kind of needs and budgets our customers have right now.
“We have committed our construction costs. We have gone ahead and developed it and we are looking at our cashflow to ensure that we can build the project on time with little financial difficulties.”
Frasers also wants cash for possible land acquisitions in the near term.
Other developers which have turned to cutting prices include City Developments. It recently launched a new phase of its Livia project in Pasir Ris at about S$620 per square foot, down from S$650 per square foot.
Meanwhile, GuocoLand relaunched its development near Buangkok MRT - the Quartz - at an average price of S$595 per square foot, more than eight per cent lower than the initial launch in 2007.
Another developer, MCL Land, recently made provisions to value its land near current market prices. Analysts said this is normally a prelude to a relaunch at lower prices. But they noted that developers will not keep prices low for too long.
Donald Han, managing director, Cushman & Wakefield, said: “Some obvious strategy would be to go out there, launch as much as you can, depending on where the quota is.
“Then once you hit a certain sales quota, you stop and then you relaunch it when the project can be launched at a better market sentiment and hopefully at a higher price as well.”
Most analysts believe the market will start to pick up in mid-2010.
Source : Channel NewsAsia - 2 Mar 2009
Monday, March 2, 2009
It’s not the time to buy
Posted by luxuryasiahome on February 27, 2009
End 09, early next year could be better, says CDL chief
CITY Development Limited (CDL) believes it is too early for it to start snapping up property in the downturn.
“The buyer-seller price gap is too wide still, so it’s not time to buy. The end of the year, early next year could be better,” said City Developments Limited’s (CDL) executive chairman Kwek Leng Beng at the group’s annual results briefing yesterday. Asset prices, he said, have not fallen to levels that are attractive enough.
CDL yesterday announced an after-tax profit of $580.9 million, almost a 20-per-cent dip from a year earlier. Even so, that was the group’s second-highest earnings since inception.
It attributed the fall partly to a 5.2-per-cent decline in revenue and lower contribution from its hotel operations under London-listed Millennium and Copthorne Hotels (M&C). This was mostly due to currency conversion, given the Singapore dollar’s recent strength against the British pound.
“Not unexpectedly, 2008 was a challenging year for the Singapore property market with downward pressure on both transaction volumes and sale prices after blistering performance in the previous two years, weighed down by global financial woes,” the company said.
“The group is aware of the many challenges that lie ahead.”
CDL said its balance sheet remained healthy, and it was not planning any rights issue to raise capital. It expects to stay profitable this year.
In the coming year, CDL said it would “exercise prudence” on expenses. It would “keep staff as much as (it) can” in Singapore.
CDL’s net borrowings stood at $3.4 billion, or 32 per cent of assets if fair value gains are taken into account, said chief financial officer Goh Ann Nee.
In the first half of this year, it will launch 60 units at the 724-unit Livia, 100 units at the 336-unit The Arte at Thomson, and 100 units of the 228-unit The Quayside Isle @ Sentosa Cove.
The group has 142 unsold units from projects previously launched projects, with less than 10 per cent of those high-end.
CDL is holding back its South Beach project. It added that based on a recent valuation for the year ended Dec 31, there was no impairment required for the development.
Mr Kwek refuted rumours about consortium partners pulling out of the project.
The company is planning to issue the second tranche of Islamic Sukuk in the first quarter of this year. It is likely to be three or four times larger than the first one. In January, CDL issued $100 million worth of notes under its $1-billion Islamic note programme.
Source : Today - 27 Feb 2009
End 09, early next year could be better, says CDL chief
CITY Development Limited (CDL) believes it is too early for it to start snapping up property in the downturn.
“The buyer-seller price gap is too wide still, so it’s not time to buy. The end of the year, early next year could be better,” said City Developments Limited’s (CDL) executive chairman Kwek Leng Beng at the group’s annual results briefing yesterday. Asset prices, he said, have not fallen to levels that are attractive enough.
CDL yesterday announced an after-tax profit of $580.9 million, almost a 20-per-cent dip from a year earlier. Even so, that was the group’s second-highest earnings since inception.
It attributed the fall partly to a 5.2-per-cent decline in revenue and lower contribution from its hotel operations under London-listed Millennium and Copthorne Hotels (M&C). This was mostly due to currency conversion, given the Singapore dollar’s recent strength against the British pound.
“Not unexpectedly, 2008 was a challenging year for the Singapore property market with downward pressure on both transaction volumes and sale prices after blistering performance in the previous two years, weighed down by global financial woes,” the company said.
“The group is aware of the many challenges that lie ahead.”
CDL said its balance sheet remained healthy, and it was not planning any rights issue to raise capital. It expects to stay profitable this year.
In the coming year, CDL said it would “exercise prudence” on expenses. It would “keep staff as much as (it) can” in Singapore.
CDL’s net borrowings stood at $3.4 billion, or 32 per cent of assets if fair value gains are taken into account, said chief financial officer Goh Ann Nee.
In the first half of this year, it will launch 60 units at the 724-unit Livia, 100 units at the 336-unit The Arte at Thomson, and 100 units of the 228-unit The Quayside Isle @ Sentosa Cove.
The group has 142 unsold units from projects previously launched projects, with less than 10 per cent of those high-end.
CDL is holding back its South Beach project. It added that based on a recent valuation for the year ended Dec 31, there was no impairment required for the development.
Mr Kwek refuted rumours about consortium partners pulling out of the project.
The company is planning to issue the second tranche of Islamic Sukuk in the first quarter of this year. It is likely to be three or four times larger than the first one. In January, CDL issued $100 million worth of notes under its $1-billion Islamic note programme.
Source : Today - 27 Feb 2009
CDL’s full-year earnings drop 20%
Posted by luxuryasiahome on February 27, 2009
DEVELOPER City Developments (CDL) has reported a 20per cent drop in full-year net profit to $580.9million, largely due to a lower contribution from its listed unit Millennium and Copthorne Hotels. Revenue dipped 5.2per cent to $2.95billion as home sales slowed significantly.
CDL has recommended a final dividend of 7.5cents per share.
The property development business remains the biggest earnings contributor, even as pre-tax profit fell from $506million to $476million on the back of a 10.3per cent decline in revenue to $773million.
Pre-tax profit from its hotel operations was $245million, down from $285.4million, due to lower exchange rates as the Singapore dollar appreciated against the British pound and impairment losses on certain hotel properties. Revenue fell 6.1per cent to $1.87 billion.
Revenue from rental properties rose 22.3per cent to $246.5million on higher average rents and occupancy, but pre-tax profit rose just 2per cent to $136.3million, as gains were partially offset by the impairment losses.
CDL said in its results statement yesterday only 30per cent of its units were sold under the deferred payment scheme (DPS), which allows buyers to defer the bulk of the price until completion date.
It said there was no need ‘to warrant any alarming concern on DPS buyers defaulting’. CDL executive chairman Kwek Leng Beng said the firm would sue buyers wishing to abandon purchases.
CDL’s launch plans for the first half of this year involves units in three projects, of which Livia was first released last year.
It will launch another 60 units at the 724-unit Livia in Pasir Ris as well as 100 units of the 336-unit The Arte at Thomson and 100 units of the 228-unit The Quayside Isle@Sentosa Cove.
It had already released 30 units of Livia at a reduced price earlier this month and has sold 16 units since then, or more than 350 units to date.
But this year will continue to be a tough one. ‘My personal belief is that the Singapore market will recover in 2010, 2011,’ said Mr Kwek. ‘By which time, if the Singapore market doesn’t recover, you will see a lot of sad faces everywhere.’
Yesterday, he disclosed that a large residential and commercial development project in Incheon, South Korea was off. Under the memorandum of understanding signed with South Korea’s DCChemical Company in August 2007, it was to have pumped up to US$300million (S$460million) into the project.
He also said the two partners on the large South Beach project, which CDL deferred last year, are still on board.
‘As far as construction is concerned,’ he added, ‘we would like to defer it for maybe another year or so…I have no significant worries about whether we go ahead this year, next year or the year after.’
CDL’s net gearing ratio is unchanged from 2007 at 48per cent, based on cost. If it had adopted a revaluation policy, this figure would fall to 32per cent.
Earnings per share fell to 62.5cents from 78.3cents while net asset value per share was $5.97 as at Dec31, up from $5.72 a year earlier.
CDL shares closed seven cents higher yesterday at $4.90.
Key figures
Full-year net profit: $580.9m (down 20 per cent)
Revenue: $2.95 billion (down 5.2 per cent)
Final dividend: 7.5 cents per share
Earnings per share: 62.5 cents
Source : Straits Times - 27 Feb 2009
DEVELOPER City Developments (CDL) has reported a 20per cent drop in full-year net profit to $580.9million, largely due to a lower contribution from its listed unit Millennium and Copthorne Hotels. Revenue dipped 5.2per cent to $2.95billion as home sales slowed significantly.
CDL has recommended a final dividend of 7.5cents per share.
The property development business remains the biggest earnings contributor, even as pre-tax profit fell from $506million to $476million on the back of a 10.3per cent decline in revenue to $773million.
Pre-tax profit from its hotel operations was $245million, down from $285.4million, due to lower exchange rates as the Singapore dollar appreciated against the British pound and impairment losses on certain hotel properties. Revenue fell 6.1per cent to $1.87 billion.
Revenue from rental properties rose 22.3per cent to $246.5million on higher average rents and occupancy, but pre-tax profit rose just 2per cent to $136.3million, as gains were partially offset by the impairment losses.
CDL said in its results statement yesterday only 30per cent of its units were sold under the deferred payment scheme (DPS), which allows buyers to defer the bulk of the price until completion date.
It said there was no need ‘to warrant any alarming concern on DPS buyers defaulting’. CDL executive chairman Kwek Leng Beng said the firm would sue buyers wishing to abandon purchases.
CDL’s launch plans for the first half of this year involves units in three projects, of which Livia was first released last year.
It will launch another 60 units at the 724-unit Livia in Pasir Ris as well as 100 units of the 336-unit The Arte at Thomson and 100 units of the 228-unit The Quayside Isle@Sentosa Cove.
It had already released 30 units of Livia at a reduced price earlier this month and has sold 16 units since then, or more than 350 units to date.
But this year will continue to be a tough one. ‘My personal belief is that the Singapore market will recover in 2010, 2011,’ said Mr Kwek. ‘By which time, if the Singapore market doesn’t recover, you will see a lot of sad faces everywhere.’
Yesterday, he disclosed that a large residential and commercial development project in Incheon, South Korea was off. Under the memorandum of understanding signed with South Korea’s DCChemical Company in August 2007, it was to have pumped up to US$300million (S$460million) into the project.
He also said the two partners on the large South Beach project, which CDL deferred last year, are still on board.
‘As far as construction is concerned,’ he added, ‘we would like to defer it for maybe another year or so…I have no significant worries about whether we go ahead this year, next year or the year after.’
CDL’s net gearing ratio is unchanged from 2007 at 48per cent, based on cost. If it had adopted a revaluation policy, this figure would fall to 32per cent.
Earnings per share fell to 62.5cents from 78.3cents while net asset value per share was $5.97 as at Dec31, up from $5.72 a year earlier.
CDL shares closed seven cents higher yesterday at $4.90.
Key figures
Full-year net profit: $580.9m (down 20 per cent)
Revenue: $2.95 billion (down 5.2 per cent)
Final dividend: 7.5 cents per share
Earnings per share: 62.5 cents
Source : Straits Times - 27 Feb 2009
Property market starting to stir
Posted by luxuryasiahome on March 1, 2009
Thanks to the mini-buzz created by two new successful launches - Caspian in Jurong and Alexis @ Alexandra - a few developers have decided to release their projects for sale.
It is an improvement, even if it is just a slight one, from the very sombre mood a month ago, when market watchers were expecting the lull in the market to continue.
Over the weekend, TG Development launched 30 units of the freehold, 102-unit St Patrick’s Residences in St Patrick’s Road in the East.
On average, prices start at around $675 per sq ft (psf) for a two-bedroom unit and rise to about $900 psf for a four-bedroom penthouse.
Unit sizes range from 1,152 sq ft for the two-bedroom units to 3,423sqft for the four-bedroom penthouses. Some three-bedroom units can cost just under $1 million.
The interest absorption scheme, which allows buyers - if they take a loan from the start - to defer making any payments beyond the initial down payment until the project is completed, is offered at a 3 per cent premium.
Marketing agent Savills said the condominium offers quality furnishings and fittings usually associated with prime projects, and that a few units have been sold since the preview a week ago.
Near Upper Bukit Timah, Hiap Hoe has launched The Beverly, its 118-unit condo in Toh Tuck Road.
Each unit is served by a private lift. Prices start at $648 psf; the average price is $750 psf. This means that the total price per unit should start from just below $1 million.
Unit sizes range from 1,120 sq ft for the two-bedders to 4,187 sq ft for the four-bedders. There are also double-storey penthouses from 2,099 sq ft to 3,757 sq ft. Hiap Hoe is not offering the interest absorption scheme.
Other projects expected this month include Double Bay Residences in Simei, The Arte in Thomson, Domus in Irrawaddy Road and an 18-storey project in River Valley.
These are in the mass- to mid-market categories that, unlike the high-end segment, are still attracting buyers.
New home sales in January had plunged to a new low as developers and buyers kept to the sidelines.
The two new projects that sold very well about two to three weeks ago - Caspian and Alexis - helped revive the market mood to a certain extent.
The Caspian showflat was packed during the preview, when 300 out of 712 units were sold at average prices starting from $580 psf. So far, more than 500 units have been sold.
The 293 Alexis units were all sold at $950 psf to $1,250 psf, but the absolute prices were reasonable, given that most units are small.
At a results briefing last Thursday, City Developments’ Kwek Leng Joo cited the good take-up at the two projects as proof that there is still demand.
‘The good response to recent launches is true,’ he said.
Still, the stock market and buying sentiment remain weak.
Ms Phylicia Ang, director of Savills Residential, said: ‘The affordability threshold is key at this point. In the current market, it is important to price projects at an attractive level to attract buyers.’
The UOL group should start selling the 646-unit Double Bay Residences near the Simei MRT station soon. It declined to give pricing details of the 99-year leasehold condo until the launch, but there is talk that prices will be around $650 psf to $680 psf.
The one-bedders start at 538 sq ft, the two-bedroom units from 915sq ft, while the big units can go up to 3,703 sq ft.
Along Thomson Road, The Arte is expected to be released for preview sale by the middle of the month.
Property agents have advertised the preview of the 336-unit, freehold condo at prices starting at more than $950 psf.
About half of the project, or 164 units, are three-bedroom units from 1,399 sq ft to 1,625 sq ft. Another 100 units are 1,873 sq ft four-bedders.
There are also advertisements for the preview of the 18-storey, 67-unit project in River Valley, which offers the interest absorption scheme. It has mostly small units - 32 are 635 sq ft apartments and 30 are 1,044 sq ft units.
A Chinese developer, Lakeview Developments, may also push out its 104-unit Domus this month.
High-end launches will likely be few and far between this year, as current demand is coming only from owner-occupiers or very small investors, according to a developer.
There should be more mass- to mid-market projects coming up in the next few months. These could include projects like the 99-year leasehold Ascentia Sky next to the Redhill MRT station. It offers two- to four-bedroom units from approximately 1,000 sq ft to 1,800 sq ft.
Source : Sunday Times - 1 Mar 2009
Thanks to the mini-buzz created by two new successful launches - Caspian in Jurong and Alexis @ Alexandra - a few developers have decided to release their projects for sale.
It is an improvement, even if it is just a slight one, from the very sombre mood a month ago, when market watchers were expecting the lull in the market to continue.
Over the weekend, TG Development launched 30 units of the freehold, 102-unit St Patrick’s Residences in St Patrick’s Road in the East.
On average, prices start at around $675 per sq ft (psf) for a two-bedroom unit and rise to about $900 psf for a four-bedroom penthouse.
Unit sizes range from 1,152 sq ft for the two-bedroom units to 3,423sqft for the four-bedroom penthouses. Some three-bedroom units can cost just under $1 million.
The interest absorption scheme, which allows buyers - if they take a loan from the start - to defer making any payments beyond the initial down payment until the project is completed, is offered at a 3 per cent premium.
Marketing agent Savills said the condominium offers quality furnishings and fittings usually associated with prime projects, and that a few units have been sold since the preview a week ago.
Near Upper Bukit Timah, Hiap Hoe has launched The Beverly, its 118-unit condo in Toh Tuck Road.
Each unit is served by a private lift. Prices start at $648 psf; the average price is $750 psf. This means that the total price per unit should start from just below $1 million.
Unit sizes range from 1,120 sq ft for the two-bedders to 4,187 sq ft for the four-bedders. There are also double-storey penthouses from 2,099 sq ft to 3,757 sq ft. Hiap Hoe is not offering the interest absorption scheme.
Other projects expected this month include Double Bay Residences in Simei, The Arte in Thomson, Domus in Irrawaddy Road and an 18-storey project in River Valley.
These are in the mass- to mid-market categories that, unlike the high-end segment, are still attracting buyers.
New home sales in January had plunged to a new low as developers and buyers kept to the sidelines.
The two new projects that sold very well about two to three weeks ago - Caspian and Alexis - helped revive the market mood to a certain extent.
The Caspian showflat was packed during the preview, when 300 out of 712 units were sold at average prices starting from $580 psf. So far, more than 500 units have been sold.
The 293 Alexis units were all sold at $950 psf to $1,250 psf, but the absolute prices were reasonable, given that most units are small.
At a results briefing last Thursday, City Developments’ Kwek Leng Joo cited the good take-up at the two projects as proof that there is still demand.
‘The good response to recent launches is true,’ he said.
Still, the stock market and buying sentiment remain weak.
Ms Phylicia Ang, director of Savills Residential, said: ‘The affordability threshold is key at this point. In the current market, it is important to price projects at an attractive level to attract buyers.’
The UOL group should start selling the 646-unit Double Bay Residences near the Simei MRT station soon. It declined to give pricing details of the 99-year leasehold condo until the launch, but there is talk that prices will be around $650 psf to $680 psf.
The one-bedders start at 538 sq ft, the two-bedroom units from 915sq ft, while the big units can go up to 3,703 sq ft.
Along Thomson Road, The Arte is expected to be released for preview sale by the middle of the month.
Property agents have advertised the preview of the 336-unit, freehold condo at prices starting at more than $950 psf.
About half of the project, or 164 units, are three-bedroom units from 1,399 sq ft to 1,625 sq ft. Another 100 units are 1,873 sq ft four-bedders.
There are also advertisements for the preview of the 18-storey, 67-unit project in River Valley, which offers the interest absorption scheme. It has mostly small units - 32 are 635 sq ft apartments and 30 are 1,044 sq ft units.
A Chinese developer, Lakeview Developments, may also push out its 104-unit Domus this month.
High-end launches will likely be few and far between this year, as current demand is coming only from owner-occupiers or very small investors, according to a developer.
There should be more mass- to mid-market projects coming up in the next few months. These could include projects like the 99-year leasehold Ascentia Sky next to the Redhill MRT station. It offers two- to four-bedroom units from approximately 1,000 sq ft to 1,800 sq ft.
Source : Sunday Times - 1 Mar 2009
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
