Saturday, July 4, 2009

Private resale home prices up in Q2, says DTZ

 
 

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via Lushhomemedia by luxuryasiahome on 7/3/09


12.8% increase in average price of 2-bedroom units; firm expects full-year primary market sales to top 2006 figure of 11,147 units

THE average price of freehold non-landed resale private homes in prime districts 9, 10 and 11 increased 11.3 per cent to $1,247 per sq foot in the second quarter from Q1, says DTZ.

This followed a 3.7 per cent quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) price fall in Q1.

Two-bedroom units posted a 12.8 per cent q-on-q gain in Q2, as their lower quantum prices stimulated interest among people hoping to own prime district property.

But DTZ considers the Q2 price gain a blip supported by buyers' fears of missing the bottom, pent-up demand and low interest rates – rather than economic fundamentals.

As for primary market sales, the property firm is now projecting that developers' private home sales for the whole of 2009 are likely to surpass the 11,147 units achieved in 2006, which was the second-highest performance after the 14,811 homes they sold in 2007.

In the first six months of this year, the tally was about 6,700 to 6,900 units.

DTZ's figures also show the average price of luxurious non-landed resale homes rose 9.6 per cent q-o-q to $2,060 psf in Q2.

Outside the prime districts, the average resale price of 99-year leasehold homes rose 3.2 per cent q-o-q to $573 psf in Q2, as prices had fallen less and there are fewer 'specu-vestors' in this segment.

Earlier this week, the Urban Redevelopment Authority's flash estimate showed the overall private home price index declined 5.9 per cent in Q2 from Q1.

Despite DTZ's figures showing an increase in resale prices of non-landed homes in Q2, DTZ's head of South-east Asia Research Chua Chor Hoon said: 'Without a clear recovery in sight for the US and Singapore economies, the price recovery in Q2 2009 is not sustainable and sales volume would be affected if prices continue to rise.'

She noted that average resale prices have fell only 10-35 per cent between Q4 2007 and Q1 2009, compared with the fall of 35-45 per cent from the Q2 1996 peak to the Q4 1998 Asian financial crisis trough.

The number of caveats lodged for resales and sub-sales in April and May this year exceeded that for the whole of Q1 by 70 per cent. The proportion of foreign buyers, excluding Singapore permanent residents, rose from 5 per cent in Q1 to 8 per cent in April and May.

Indonesians and Malaysians accounted for 49 per cent of caveats lodged in April and May by foreigners and Singapore PRs, compared with 40 per cent in Q1.

Sub-sales and resales are secondary-market transactions. Sub-sales involve projects that have yet to obtain a Certificate of Statutory Completion (CSC), while resales relate to projects that have received CSC.

Meanwhile, as new supply came on stream amid waning demand, rents continued to fall in Q2, although at a slower pace than in Q1.

The average rental value of prime district homes slipped 9.1 per cent to $3.32 psf per month in Q2, after a 16.2 per cent slide in Q1.

Rents for luxury homes were the hardest hit, with a 10.6 per cent decline to $4.65 psf per month – back to their Q4 2005 level.

Source : Business Times – 4 Jul 2009


 
 

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Thursday, July 2, 2009

STI dips 1.4% to 2,320.82

 
 

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via EdgeSingapore RSS on 7/2/09

The Straits Times Index dropped 1.4% to 2,320.82 at the close. Twelve stocks fell for each that gained on the 30-member gauge. The following shares were among the most active in the market today.

Palm oil suppliers: Crude palm oil for September delivery dropped as much as 4% in Kuala Lumpur today on speculation prices may decline as production increases. Wilmar International (WIL SP), the world's biggest palm oil trader, fell 1.4% to $5.01. Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP), the world's second-biggest palm oil producer, slid 3.9% to 37 cents. Indofood Agri Resources, the palm oil unit of Indonesia's biggest noodle maker, lost 1.6% to $1.23.

 
 

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央行在製造通脹危機

 
 

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HDB resale prices up 1.2%

 
 

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via Lushhomemedia by luxuryasiahome on 7/1/09


PRICES of HDB flats have staged a surprising comeback, reversing a first-quarter dip of 0.8 per cent to rise 1.2 per cent in the second quarter and reach a historical high.

Flash estimates from the Housing and Development Board (HDB) released yesterday show the resale price index rising to 140 – a record level not seen since the current index started in 1990.

It beats the previous record set in the fourth quarter of last year when it hit just over 139.

Market analysts said they were caught off-guard by the turnaround, as many had been predicting 2 to 10 per cent declines in HDB resale flat prices for this year after a descent began in the first quarter – the first one since 2006.

Yesterday's numbers have changed expectations, with analysts reversing their forecasts for HDB flat prices to hold or increase by up to 5 per cent this year.

Industry observers attribute the latest surprise figures to three factors.

First, talk of an economic recovery has gathered momentum, backed by the recent stock market rally and brisk private property sales. This has slowed the slide in private property prices islandwide.

Flash figures capturing sales prices in the first 10 weeks of the quarter, released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority yesterday, show prices falling 5.9 per cent in the second quarter, compared to a 14.1 per cent decline in the previous quarter.

The marked slowdown in the price decline is in line with rising transaction prices evident since the strong rebound in home sales since February, said Colliers International's director for research and advisory, Ms Tay Huey Ying.

More bullish sentiment, coupled with the strength in HDB resale prices, has supported the private market, say analysts.

High HDB valuations is another key factor. HDB upgraders – buyers with HDB addresses buying private property – have been able to sell their units at high valuations and for tidy profits to fund private property purchases.

Banking executive Vic Cheow, 28, is one such HDB upgrader who recently sold a four-room HDB flat to buy a three-bed condominium unit in Jurong.

Due to the high valuations, buyers do not need to dig deep for upfront cash – otherwise known as cash-over-valuation – to purchase resale flats.

'We found selling at a profit easier as a result of this,' said Mrs Cheow.

ERA Asia-Pacific associate director Eugene Lim reports that the agency, which accounts for more than 40 per cent of the HDB resale market, saw transaction volumes surge 52 per cent in the second quarter compared to the first.

'The feeling in the second quarter is the recession hasn't been as bad as it seems,' said Mr Lim. Many sellers have become more willing to negotiate and are realistic, especially those selling larger flats, he added.

The third factor, flagged by Chesterton Suntec International head of research Colin Tan, is that demand far outstrips supply. HDB launched 7,793 new flats last year and will launch another 3,700 in the first nine months of this year.

'HDB may have ramped up the supply of new flats recently, but it's not enough and it takes too long,' said Mr Tan. 'There is still a lot of pent-up demand from a needs-based group of people. And they have no choice but to pay high prices because they cannot wait.'

A Credit Suisse report released recently notes that total public and private housing supply for 2008 to 2012 is 16,000 on average per year – 42 per cent lower than the 10-year historical average.

'This does not look excessive versus the annual average 24,000 household formations or marriages,' said the report.

But, added Mr Tan, it seems 'unnatural for prices to rise against the fundamentals of the economy', which is still in recession.

More detailed public and private housing data for the second quarter is set to be released at the end of this month.

Source : Straits Times – 2 July 2009


 
 

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Private home prices fall 5.9% in Q2

 
 

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via Lushhomemedia by luxuryasiahome on 7/1/09


PRIVATE home prices slowed their downward slide in the second quarter, with suburban homes helping to hold up the market.

The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) announced yesterday that its initial estimates showed a 5.9 per cent fall in private home prices from April to last month, following a record 14.1 per cent slide in the first quarter.

Some property experts yesterday expressed surprise at the larger-than-expected drop. And with the recent strong demand, they are expecting to see a much smaller fall in four weeks' time, when final second-quarter figures are released.

A few are even expecting to see a small price rise by then because of last month's buying craze, which saw project launches attracting rising numbers of investors and speculators.

But given that the current frenzy is being whipped up against a still-weak economic backdrop, more analysts are turning cautious, saying it is unsustainable.

Yesterday, the URA reported prices of non-landed homes in the suburban areas falling just 2.6 per cent in the second quarter, compared with a bigger 6.6 per cent slide in city-centre prices and a 6.3 per cent decline in city-fringe prices.

The smaller mass-market price fall reflected the strong buying support from upgraders in the HDB market, where resale prices reversed a marginal fall to rise by 1.2 per cent in the second quarter.

The stock market rally, coupled with strong liquidity, has resulted in a surge in second-quarter new home sales. CBRE Research estimated that 4,000 new homes were sold – more than 50 per cent above the 2,596 units sold in the first quarter.

The volume lent support to home prices and, in some cases, allowed developers to raise their prices when supply was tight, it said.

The second quarter also saw more new launches at higher price levels because they were located either on the city fringe or in prime districts, CBRE Research added. These include Martin Place Residences, The Wharf Residence, One Devonshire and the sold-out 8@Woodleigh.

CBRE Research executive director Li Hiaw Ho said the 5.9 per cent decline in private home prices is 'contrary to the present market perception' as actual price levels in the second quarter are known to have risen more than 10 per cent from the first quarter.

DTZ head of South-east Asia research Chua Chor Hoon described the fall as 'surprising' because prices picked up around last month – especially in the prime districts of 9, 10 and 11.

Average home prices were still relatively flat in April and May – some developments saw price increases, while others saw price falls – she said. But last month, resale home prices rose from 3 per cent in the mass-market segment to as much as 11 per cent in prime areas, she added.

'Going forward, developers are likely to test the market with gradual price increases. Should the current momentum hold, we can expect private property prices to increase by 5 per cent to 8 per cent in the second half of the year,' said ERA Asia-Pacific associate director Eugene Lim.

While local buyers are now supporting the market, more foreign investors may come when the integrated resorts open, he added.

Colliers International director for research and advisory Tay Huey Ying thinks the strength of pent-up demand should not be underestimated as new home sales had sunk to a low of 4,264 units last year – half of the annual average of about 8,500 new units since 2000.

Home sales could remain robust in the second half of this year, possibly reaching 12,000 units or more. This will hinge on price rises not exceeding 5 per cent for mass-market homes and 10 per cent for higher-tier homes, as buyers remain price sensitive in view of the absence of economic expansion and growth in employment and personal income, she said.

If the positive buying mood continues, the third-quarter price index may show a rise, said OrangeTee's executive director (residential), Mr Steven Tan.

Others, like Ms Chua, think the final second-quarter index may already show some increase when more June caveats are included in the computation of the index. But she thinks this could be a 'temporary blip' with resistance setting in at some levels and prices possibly stagnant or falling from as early as the the third quarter onwards.

POSSIBLE PICKUP

'Should the current momentum hold, we can expect private property prices to increase by 5 per cent to 8 per cent in the second half of the year.' – ERA Asia-Pacific associate director Eugene Lim

Source : Straits Times – 2 July 2009


 
 

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组屋转售价回稳

 
 

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今年第二季的组屋转售价格不跌反升，显示市场情绪有所改善，价格出现回稳迹象。

 
 

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组屋转售价回稳

 
 

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今年第二季的组屋转售价格不跌反升，显示市场情绪有所改善，价格出现回稳迹象。

 
 

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Private home prices in Singapore drop 5.9% in Q2

 
 

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via Lushhomemedia by luxuryasiahome on 7/1/09


Private home prices in Singapore have fallen for the fourth straight quarter, though at a slower pace.

Initial estimates from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) on Wednesday showed that the cost of private residential properties fell by 5.9 per cent in the second quarter, compared to the record drop of 14.1 per cent in the previous quarter – the steepest fall since 1975.

Observers projected that some 4,000 new private homes were sold between April and June, 50 per cent more than the previous quarter.

Strong sales volume and improved market sentiment drove prices up, narrowing the decline in the second quarter.

Donald Han, managing director, Cushman and Wakefield, said: "We are going into a scenario of an upturn. (For) the third quarter, we may look at a potential positive number.

"There is still liquidity in the market and system, looking for good yielding assets. There is still a lot of activity out there and that will continue for the next two to three quarters."

According to the latest numbers, prices for homes in the second quarter slid across the board, dipping by 6.6 per cent in the central region, 6.3 per cent in the city fringe and 2.6 per cent in suburban areas.

Going forward, experts say developers will continue to launch mass market projects starting at S$800 per square foot (psf).

Overall, prices for the second half of the year is expected to rise by up to 10 per cent, with prospects for mid-tier properties also looking up.

Liang Thow Ming, director, Residential Services, Credo Real Estate, said: "Mid-end market has basically gone to the four-digit region at this point in time. I expect mid-end (market) will start at S$1,000 (psf) upwards. There has been a lot of activity which will sustain very well. In fact, I think it may be the out performer for the rest of this year."

More expensive luxury apartments averaging between S$3,000 and S$4,000 psf may also be placed for sale, though on a selective private preview basis.

Market watchers say foreign investors will take positively to the latest figures. And they expect some foreign buyers to return in the next six to eight months, with the majority of them likely to be looking at properties above S$5 million.

A minor recovery was also seen in the resale prices of public flats.

The Housing and Development Board said preliminary data showed that the resale price index rose 1.2 per cent between April and June, to an all-time high of 140 points since records began in 1990.

This was a 1.2 per cent price increase in the second quarter, reversing a dip of 0.8 per cent in the previous quarter.

Property agents say this is on the back of greater job security and realistic home prices.

For the whole year, observers expect resale prices of public flats to go up by some three to five per cent.

The figures captured transaction prices in the first 10 weeks of the quarter. The data for the full second quarter will be released on July 24.

Source : Channel NewsAsia – 1 July 2009


 
 

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Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Profit by Playing Follow the Leader

 
 

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Posted By:Daryl Guppy
Markets don't develop in isolation, neither do they develop in unison. In any related group, there's usually a leader, and a laggard. These inter-market relationships provide good trading opportunities because one index will lead the way in behavior and development. Alert traders watch the leader, then look for a duplication of this behavior in other associated markets.    Read More

 
 

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0629本周匯市展望與市場焦點預覽

 
 

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2Q private home prices fall 5.9%

 
 

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via EdgeSingapore RSS on 6/30/09

Singapore's private home prices fell for a fourth straight quarter as the city-state's deepest recession on record weighed on demand.

The price index of private residential property fell 5.9% to 131.7 in the second quarter from 139.9 the previous three months, the Urban Redevelopment Authority said in an e-mailed statement today.

Prices tumbled 14% in the first quarter, the most in at least 16 years.

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