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English and Mandarin finance news/reports, life, stock investment in Singapore, Asia and World I am working in IT industry with strong interest in investment and photography.
Charting Asia: The Dow's Stress Test Rally
The debate rages on - Is this a new bull market or just a bear market rally? Have we bottomed out? Are the markets turning for real? Let's see what the charts have to say.
Charting Asia: The Dow's Stress Test Rally
The debate rages on - Is this a new bull market or just a bear market rally? Have we bottomed out? Are the markets turning for real? Let's see what the charts have to say.
MONDAY, MAY 18
Singapore
GDP (y-o-y, 1QF)
Electronic Exports (y-o-y, Apr)
Non-oil Domestic Exports (y-o-y, Apr)
Chartered Semiconductor Mfg Ltd
Stock split: 1 for 10
CITY Developments Ltd (CDL), which yesterday reported a 49.6 per cent year-on-year drop in group net profit for the first quarter ended March 31, 2009 to $83.1 million, said that property market sentiment is improving and it is 'confident of remaining profitable for the current year'.
The group reported weaker earnings for property development and hotels, but this was mitigated by a higher profit from rental properties.
The bottom line was better than that of any other listed Singapore property group so far this reporting season, though below most analysts' expectations.
The group said that it has fast-tracked its new condo project on the former Hong Leong Garden Condominium site in the West Coast area. The plan is to prepare the project, which will have an estimated 394 units, for launch by Q4 this year to ride on a recovery in the mass and mid-market residential segments.
The group is also doing the groundwork to prepare other development sites that are likely to be well received by potential buyers, so it will be 'well-positioned to reap first-mover advantage, when the market recovers further'.
Q1 profit before income tax – including CDL's share of after-tax profit of associates and jointly-controlled entities – fell 55.7 per cent for property development and 59.8 per cent for hotel operations, but this was offset by a 46.6 per cent rise for rental properties.
'The strong performance of the rental properties segment is because office rental leases are secured for a longer period of time and the group also benefited by having a diversified tenant mix and locking in higher rental rates from leases that were up for renewal when the office market was more buoyant,' CDL said.
Profit from rental properties, at $36.9 million in Q1 2009, overtook earnings from hotel operations, $20.9 million, reflecting the weaker Q1 performance posted earlier by Millennium & Copthorne Hotels and CDL Hospitality Trusts amid the global hospitality slump.
Property developments that contributed to the Q1 bottom line include City Square Residences, Cliveden at Grange, One Shenton, Shelford Suites, Tribeca, The Solitaire and Wilkie Studio, as well as joint-venture projects The Oceanfront @ Sentosa Cove, Botannia and Ferraria Park.
Giving an update on its South Beach project in Singapore, CDL said that the joint venture partners are in the final stage of negotiations with a consortium of banks on refinancing for the land.
'As this development has until at least 2016 to be completed, the group is taking the opportunity to review and refine the plans for the development to maximise the immense potential of this sizeable prime site, making it even more efficient. Meanwhile, construction cost is expected to come down further,' CDL said.
At Kitchener Road, leasing of remaining retail space at City Square Mall has been challenging amid the financial crisis and recession. Construction of the residential development at The Quayside Isle Collection at Sentosa Cove is slated for completion by 2011. The group may launch the project near or post completion. Property prices at Sentosa Cove have been subdued but the site holds 'immense potential' and the project will be even more attractive when the Sentosa Integrated Resort is completed, CDL said.
CDL has sold more than 250 units at The Arte at Thomson so far.
Group revenue slipped 18 per cent year-on-year to $622.5 million in Q1.
CDL's share of after-tax profits of jointly-controlled entities decreased 69.3 per cent to $17.6 million on the back of lower profit contribution from St Regis Residences and The Sail @ Marina Bay, which obtained Temporary Occupation Permits last year.
The group managed to trim its administrative expenses by nearly $20 million or 15 per cent in Q1 this year over the same year-ago period – due largely to lower salaries and related expenses, and rental expenses incurred for the leasing of hotels from CDL Hospitality Trusts.
Interest expenses fell 28.5 per cent to $18.2 million in Q1 2009.
Net borrowings stood at $3.36 billion at end-March 2009, a tad lower than $3.38 billion at end-December 2008.
The group had cash and cash equivalents of $577.1 million at March 31, 2009, down from $775.9 million at Dec 31, 2008 and $657.5 million at March 31, 2008.
Net cash outflow from financing activities was $265 million for Q1 2009 – compared with net cash inflow of $4.4 million in the same period last year – due to net repayment of loans of $238.7 million in the latest quarter.
Q1 earnings per share slid 49.7 per cent to 9.1 cents. Net asset value per share was $6.11 at end-March 2009, up from $5.97 at end-December 2008.
CDL's share price ended 44 cents lower at $8.05 yesterday.
Source : Business Times – 12 May 2009
SAP (SAP) Co-CEO Leo Apotheker told reporters at a briefing in New York that the economy is showing signs of "stabilization," Reuters reports. "We'll probably start to see some glimmers of hope in the second half of the year for the global economy."
The SAP exec also played down speculation about an acquisition of the giant software company, asserting that it should remain independent. "Our customers believe an independent SAP is the best value they can get," he said.
Meanwhile, Apotheker asserted that Oracle's (ORCL) pending acquisition of Sun Microsystems (JAVA) would not have a big impact on the market for IT hardware and software, and that customers do not want to buy from a vertically integrated tech company. "I'm sorry to disappoint you," he said. "It won't affect the industry much."
SAP is up 91 cents, or 2.3%, to $40.17.
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市场知情人士发出警言。香港交易所(HKEx)主席、香港赛马会(Hong Kong Jockey Club)前主席夏佳理(Ronald Arculli)向彭博社(Bloomberg)表示,他没有买港股。投资者似乎对此并不认同。恒生指数已从3月份的低点上涨50%,而港股在亚洲基金经理的投资组合中占据着最大权重。
一定程度上,这是新兴市场股市大幅回升和资金重新流入风险较高的资产所致。跟踪资金流动的EPFR Global的数据显示,去年流入亚洲地区(日本除外)的资金骤减,但此后已增长6%。由于中国政府正大举支出,以实现经济产出增长8%的既定目标,作为国际投资者进入中国的渠道,香港的吸引力有所增强。中资公司在香港上市公司中所占的比例略高于半数,却占到了目前总成交量的三分之二。
相对而言,香港股市似乎也并未被高估——目前的市盈率为15倍。这一水平与美国相当,比中国内地低四分之一左右,相当于日本的约三分之一。香港股市见顶的贯常迹象——香港本地房地产开发商进行配股——也尚不明显。
不过,投资者似乎还是忽略了股市的下行风险。今年香港经济预计将萎缩2%-3%。失业人数正不断增加,零售额已大幅下降。行政区边界另一侧的欢呼雀跃,在很大程度上也是虚幻的。不错,香港股市的确牛气冲天,但让买方队伍不断壮大的却是政府资金。工业利润正大幅下滑。今年迄今为止,港交所自身的股票在香港股市涨幅榜上名列第六。但如今其老板实际上却在建议卖出该股。
Lex专栏是由FT评论家联合撰写的短评,对全球经济与商业进行精辟分析。
译者/汪洋
全文
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欧洲央行行长让-克劳德•特里谢(Jean-Claude Trichet)昨天暗示,全球经济低迷已经到达谷底,一些大型经济体已经能够把衰退抛在后面,期待着重新实现增长。
特里谢的讲话份量尤重,因为他不仅代表了欧元区,而且代表着世界领先的中央银行家。
在他发表上述讲话之际,经合组织(OECD)表示,法国、意大利、英国和中国的经济放缓出现了"暂停"迹象。
富时环球(日本除外)指数(FTSE All World ex Japan index)显示,全球经济复苏萌芽初显的迹象已促使全球股票价格自3月份的低谷上涨40%。最近几周,随着订单开始回升,产品库存水平开始下降,企业和消费者信心也有所上升。
上周特里谢曾警告说,欧元区16国的"经济活动在今年剩余时间内可能会非常疲弱,在2010年期间才会逐步复苏"。
但昨天特里谢采用了更为乐观的语调,抛弃了先前拒绝承认经济复苏萌芽的姿态,因为他曾担心,这些萌芽可能很快就会枯萎消逝。他表示,全球经济正处于"拐点",而一些国家已经"越过了拐点"。
但是在昨天公布的官方数据中,仍然能够明显看出已经经历的衰退的严重程度。意大利3月份工业产值下降4.6%,产出较上年同期减少约24%;法国3月份工业产值也下降1.4%。经济学家预计,今年第一季度,欧元区经济萎缩2%至2.5%,明显弱于美国和英国已经公布的数据。
译者/力文
全文Dow, S&P slip on profit taking as Nasdaq inches up - Yahoo! Finance
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/090511/business_us_markets_stocks.html?.v=12
STANDARD Chartered (StanChart) in Singapore is the latest bank to unveil
attractive home loan packages for homebuyers and owners, as interest in
residential property purchases continues to pick up.
It is introducing a package with a low interest rate of 1.5 per cent per
annum for the first year.
For the second year onwards, customers will pay an annual rate equivalent to
the three-month Singapore Interbank Offered Rate (Sibor), plus 1.35
percentage points.
The promotion, which applies to any new mortgage taken up with the bank from
yesterday till June 15, is part of StanChart's 150th anniversary
celebration.
It will also throw in freebies like free valuation, legal subsidy of up to
$2,000, and free fire and home content insurance.
There is also an additional perk for priority banking customers who hold
StanChart's Visa Infinite card.
A quick check shows StanChart's offer to be one of the more attractive ones
in town, particularly if Sibor continues to languish at well below 1 per
cent.
A comparable package by Maybank – touted by the bank as the lowest
three-year fixed rate home loan in town – fixes its first, second and third
year rate at 1.6 per cent, 2.2 per cent and 2.9 per cent, respectively.
There is no minimum loan amount required for application.
For StanChart, the minimum loan quantum is $100,000, while the lock-in
period is just two years.
Said StanChart retail banking products general manager Dennis Khoo: 'With
this offer, they (customers) can enjoy more flexibility in their finances to
be more agile and responsive to market changes.'
Singapore banks including DBS Group Holdings and Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. may have rating outlooks revised to negative from stable if capital impairment risks rise and economic conditions worsen, Fitch Ratings said.
Non-performing loan ratios at the Southeast Asian nation's banks should peak at around 11 percent in 2010, from 2% at the end of 2008, the ratings company said today in an e-mailed statement.
While banks in Singapore are in a reasonable position to absorb credit costs, assuming no asset growth and some contraction in revenue from 2008, they will register much lower profits this year, the credit assessor said.
KEPPEL Land yesterday said that it has granted a six-month payment extension to a buyer who purchased 51 apartments in its 157-unit The Suites @ Central project.
The buyer purchased the units in an en bloc deal for an average price of $1,806 per sq ft under the deferred payment scheme (DPS) in June 2007 – at the height of the property market boom.
Keppel Land, which jointly developed The Suites @ Central with Chip Eng Seng, did not disclose the buyer's identity.
Upon the execution of sale-and-purchase agreements, the buyer paid 20 per cent of the purchase price, with the balance of $1,445 psf due after the project obtains its temporary occupation permit (TOP).
Units at the fully-sold The Suites @ Central have been progressively handed over to purchasers since TOP was obtained.
The buyer of the 51 units has since asked to extend the due date to arrange funds for payment. Keppel Land and Chip Eng Seng have agreed to a six-month extension that started yesterday.
But the extension is subject to the purchaser paying $500,000 a month during the extension period. The first payment of $500,000 has been received, Keppel Land said.
The Suites @ Central was developed by Devonshire Development, 60 per cent owned by Keppel Land and 40 per cent by CEL Development, the property arm of the Chip Eng Seng group.
Last month, it emerged that a China investor that bought 20 units in MCL Land's The Fernhill condo failed to pay about $30 million that was due when the project received its TOP.
As a result, MCL Land booked first-quarter profit from only five units in the 25-unit freehold project for which buyers have paid the outstanding balance by the due date.
The investor, Concordia Overseas, subsequently managed to re-sell 19 of the 20 units.
Market watchers have said that developers who sold projects on DPS at peak prices in 2007 and early 2008 may have reason to worry if buyers do not pay up as the projects are completed in the coming months.
Such developers may have to sue buyers to get them to complete the purchase at the contracted price, or agree to a payment extension.
Source : Business Times – 9 May 2009
TIMING can decide whether the deferred payment scheme (DPS) helps or hurts private home developers, as shown by updates provided this week on two projects.
On Friday, Keppel Land revealed that it had yet to receive full payment for about a-third of Suites @ Central, a 157-unit freehold condominium on Devonshire Road that obtained its Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP) earlier this year.
In particular, payment from a bulk buyer has been delayed. In June 2007 – the year property prices here peaked – the unnamed customer made use of the DPS to buy 51 units at an average $1,806 per square foot (psf) and paid 20 per cent of the purchase price with the balance of $1,445 psf due after TOP, said KepLand.
But when time came to pay the remainder, the buyer "appealed to the company to extend the due date to arrange funds for payment".
The firm has decided to give a six-month extension from May 8, on condition that the buyer pays $500,000 monthly during the extension period. It said it had received the first payment.
Separately, another two homebuyers are arranging to pay this month for five units, said KepLand.
To date, KepLand has received the requisite payments for 101 units. It owns 60 per cent of the joint venture project, while a Chip Eng Seng unit holds the other 40 per cent.
CapitaLand has had better luck with its DPS project RiverGate, which obtained TOP in March this year – with a key reason being its 2005 launch, before the sharp property price run-up.
The builder has collected payment for 98 per cent of the 542 units sold.
The 545-unit RiverGate, located in the Robertson Quay area, is a 50-50 joint venture project with Hwa Hong Corp.
Source : Today – 9 May 2009
The Straits Times Index fell 0.05 percent at 9:05 a.m.
The index of 30 companies traded on Singapore Exchange fell 1.10 to 2,073.25. Among the stocks in the index, 11 rose, 15 fell and 4 were unchanged.
Declines in the Straits Times Index were led by Capitaland, Singapore Technologies Engineering and Singapore Exchange. About 104.05 million shares changed hands in Singapore.
DBS Group Holdings, which rose 2 cents to $10.88, was the most active stock by value in Singapore.
The next most-active issues were United Overseas Bank, which was unchanged at $13.16, and Singapore Telecommunications, which rose 2 cents to $2.59.
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美联储(Fed)主席本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)昨日表示,美国需求"可能正在企稳"。他在谨慎乐观的言论中暗示,衰退可能会在今年结束。
此时,货币市场主要利率纷纷降至创纪录低点,突显出投资者和银行家的信心正在恢复。
3个月美元伦敦同业拆借利率(Libor)昨日首次降至1%以下。英镑和欧元利率也走低。这些利率是家庭和企业借贷利率的基础。
在向国会发表证词时,伯南克强调了消费者支出的升温、住宅市场触底以及一些金融市场的好转迹象。他表示:"我们继续预计,经济活动将触底,然后会在今年晚些时候回升。"
昨日公布的针对美国服务业活动的调查也显示,尽管仍在温和收缩,但下滑速度正在放缓。
伯南克表示,美联储正"像激光一样"关注于这样一种需要,即确保它能够在合适时机减少不寻常力度的刺激。
然而,他表示,整体企稳证据仍"不明确",消费者信心方面的消息较好,而企业投资极度疲弱。他表示,复苏的最初阶段可能会相当疲弱。
他警告称:"未来数月,我们可能会看到更多大规模裁员和失业率上升。"
然而,伯南克表示,他认为,失业率——如今为8.5%——不会像一些经济学家所担心的那样达到两位数,而会"在9%至10%之间的某点"达到峰值。
伯南克表示,未来数月,消费者支出能力将"受到财政刺激的提振"。
然而,他表示,"疲弱的劳动力市场以及股市和房地产财富的缩水"将继续抑制支出。伯南克指出"消费者面临的信贷状况仍然紧张"。
译者/梁艳裳
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