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English and Mandarin finance news/reports, life, stock investment in Singapore, Asia and World I am working in IT industry with strong interest in investment and photography.
Over the past year, more and more stock sites are offering "Free real-time" data and charts. Here at StockCharts, we too have been working hard to provide our users with more options when it comes to up-to-date data. The really exciting news is that we are now really close to being able to provide a "Free real-time" option also.
Before I talk about that however, I wanted to talk a little bit about what "Free real-time" actually is and how it differs from the "Real real-time" that we currently offer. It is important to understand that there are several significant limitations that most of those other sites don't tell you about when it comes to "Free real-time."
First off, where does "Free real-time" data come from? It's important to understand that it does NOT come from the major stock exchanges. Those exchanges only provide trading data to companies (like StockCharts) that pay licensing fees and follow their strict rules for distributing exchange data. For the sake of this discussion, I'm going to call non-delayed price and volume information that comes from the major stock exchanges "Real real-time" data. "Real real-time" data is what we've been offering on StockCharts for years and we will continue to offer it into the foreseeable future.
"Real real-time" data is a very accurate reflection of the price and volume for a particular stock. Because the vast majority of investors buy and sell stocks via the major exchanges "Real real-time" data from those exchanges most closely reflects the actual value and demand for those stocks. If you trade a stock via a normal stock brokerage without any special instructions, they will execute the trade on one of the major exchanges using the "Real real-time" pricing.
"Free real-time" data comes from one of the minor exchanges. There are lots of smaller exchanges around which trade stocks but historically the volume of these exchanges is very, very low. Historically, the smaller exchanges also had the same legal restrictions about distributing data as the major exchanges did. Given those limitations / restrictions (and the fact that we already had data from the major exchanges), we chose not to provide data from the smaller exchanges on our site.
But then something changed...
In June of 2005 a new player appeared on the scene, the BATS Exchange, and it decided to use different rules. Specifically, it didn't implement all of the heavy restrictions on trading data that all other exchanges had. BATS data is free to redistribute(!).
When BATS first came out, it was an interesting idea but it still needed to prove itself - it needed to become popular enough that its data would closely match the data coming from the major exchanges. If very few people traded on the BATS Exchange, its prices would be very different. In 2009, BATS eclipsed the other minor exchanges to become the third largest exchange in the US, a good indication that BATS price data is very close to the prices on the major exchanges.
Given that accomplishment, we felt it was time to start adding BATS data to our website. That project is just about complete. When finished, it means that all of our charts that currently display delayed data (with the yellow highlight) will display "Free real-time" data from the BATS exchange instead. Here's an example of what that kind of chart will look like:
The dashed yellow vertical line shows the dividing point between the delayed data from the NYSE and the non-delayed data from BATS. All of the yellow highlighted bars are from the BATS exchange.
As time goes on, the yellow bars will get replaced with "official" data from the NYSE (on the left side of the dashed line) and new BATS bars will appear on the right edge of the chart.
Now, there is one other aspect of this chart that is very important to notice and understand. There is no volume displayed for the BATS bars. While the BATS exchange is more popular than the other small exchanges, it is still much smaller than the major exchanges. Thus, the volume data that BATS provides is much smaller. If we added BATS volume data to our charts, it would significantly distort any volume-based indicators and signals. Because of those issues, we have decided to leave BATS volume data off of our charts.
(Side Note: Some other services will multiply BATS volume values by some arbitrary factor to make its bars look similar to the "official" volume bars. The problem with that approach is that it overemphasizes small changes in BATS volume. It also doesn't help if BATS volume is zero for a given period.)
So in summary:
"Free real-time" == BATS Exchange data
Pros: Free
Cons: Price data may be slightly off, Volume data is waaaaay off. US stocks only.
"Real real-time" == Major Exchanges' data
Pros: "Official" price and volume data.
Cons: Not Free
We hope to offer "Free real-time" on our site by the end of January (although that could change - don't shoot me if it does!). When we do, you will have a choice of using either the BATS real-time data or the "Real real-time" data that we offer now. Delayed data will become a thing of the past.
And yes, if you are a "Real real-time" subscriber now and you want to downgrade to "Free real-time" when it becomes available, we will give you a way to do that. Stay tuned for all the details.
Singapore shares are lacking firm direction as investors digest good year-to-date gains, while awaiting further clues on the scope of corporate profits recovery from the upcoming earnings season.
The STI stayed flat at 2,934.15 midday having traded in narrow range of 2,922–2,942 during morning session. Support is tipped at 2,900 with resistance at yesterday's high of 2,947.
Government of Singapore Investment Corp., manager of more than US$100 billion ($134 billion) of the city-state's foreign reserves, reported losses from its investment in Manhattan's largest residential enclave.
Tishman Speyer Properties LP and BlackRock Inc. said on Jan. 8 they missed a bond payment tied to their US$5.4 billion purchase of the 80-acre property, which includes Stuyvesant Town and Peter Cooper Village apartments. Missing the payment puts the property on course to become the second-largest default in a commercial mortgage-backed security in the US.
最后的探戈
本文来源于《新世纪》周刊 2010年第3期 出版日期2010年01月11日
通货膨胀会终结中国的房地产泡沫,大部分房地产的收益,会落进政府的腰包。毛利中,开发商大概能拿到四分之一。但是,这些钱会再被用来买地
谢国忠
谢国忠搜狐博客:http://xieguozhong.blog.sohu.com/
"我还能做什么呢?我的工厂都不赚钱,只能把钱投到地产里,"宁波一位企业家如此回答我对他资金配置的质疑。
"投机房地产,我最多亏30%。要是市场不行了,我大不了把房子给银行。要是炒股票,一不小心就会亏70%-80%。"
当我问他为什么不持有现金,他回答道:"我朋友买的房子,去年还是一万一平米,现在已经两万了。银行利息太低。我要赶上我朋友。"
这并不是一个孤例。最近,我几次去浙江,不停地有企业家给我讲类似的故事。工厂不赚钱了。工人难找,每月2000块包食宿都不好找工人。五年以前,这样的待遇有的是人抢着干。原材料成本虽然比2007年低,但还至少是五年前的两倍。最糟糕的是,海外订单越来越少,客户还不停砍价。现在企业太多,订单太少。
地产商不过是政府"打工仔"
资本从制造业流出,进入房地产,是吹大当前中国地产泡沫的主因。2008年股市大跌。一年时间里,A股从2007年11月的高点跌去四分之三。此后的上涨,只是熊市反弹,还不是牛市。当前看多股市的说法,不过是绝望的人希望股市反弹,因此,不停鼓吹乐观情绪。看多的言论网站上到处都是。有些网站看起来像是没有医生的精神病医院。
房地产市场是最大的秀场。今年主要房地产市场的销售收入可能会突破4万亿,超过全国财政收入的一半。大部分房地产的收益,会落进政府的腰包。土地出让金和各种税费要占到房地产销售价格的一半以上。毛利中,开发商大概能拿到四分之一。但是,这些钱会再被用来买地。虽然中国政府的财政收入分为很多类,但其中大约一半和房地产相关。中国的财政情况和1997年的香港很像。这就是抑制房地产泡沫如此困难的原因。
伴随着美元走软,房地产市场从2002年开始复苏。当时,海外华人希望购买中国的物业,以减少美元资产。这成为是市场复苏的一大推动力。和海外华人联系紧密的沿海城市是第一波受益者。2005年末,当美联储将利率提高到4%之上时,中国房地产牛市戛然而止。第二波房地产牛市,则由银行贷款推动,特别是住房抵押贷款。房地产公司在香港融资,以及外资进入房地产,也是第二轮房价上涨的重要推手。省会城市则受益匪浅。
当土地储备和分散布局受到股市青睐时,上市的房地产公司以及获得外资支持的房地产企业,在省会城市掀起一轮拿地潮。他们的资金既支持了经济增长又制造了房地产需求。从某种意义上来说,金融企业也帮着推动了地产复苏。不过,房地产企业现在都希望能在香港把股票变现。中国的房地产市场现在还是一个卖得动的故事。他们都希望在最后的清算到来之前,变现离场。
当前这一波房地产牛市从2009年3月开始。这更多是由中国自己政策造成的。疲软的美元只不过帮着阻止资本外流,使资本盈余推高资产泡沫。在中国买房的外国投资者,经历了次贷风波之后,已对地产泡沫避之惟恐不及。事实上,这一波房价上涨的时候,海外投资者都在抛售。
这轮周期中,我看到三种信奉不同理念的购房者:
第一类:政府不会让房价下跌
多数购房者都属于这一类。这些人是中高收入人群,收入是全国平均工资的2倍或更多。他们对高房价一直难以容忍,并等待正确时机购房。他们欢迎全球危机,因为这是难逢的房价调整机遇。不过,房价没有下跌。这使他们确信,政府不会让房价下跌。这类人的逻辑就是,尽管房价高还是要买房,因为价格会涨得更高。这类人是天量抵押贷款增加的主要推动力量。2009年,他们主要集中在3月至8月买房。到目前为止,房地产价格屡创新高,这类人赌对了,他们账面上已经有利润了。
第二类:政府最喜欢房地产开发商
在这场危机中,一个朋友评价说,政府最喜欢房地产开发商。危机初期,大多数房地产开发商都拴在一根绳上。他们杠杆很高,其主要资产 —土地不断贬值。在正常市场经济中,出现这种情况,房地产开发商很快就破产了。但是,国有银行提高了房地产开发商的信贷额度,以支撑他们的流动性而不管他们净资产状况如何。然后,鼓励购房的信贷优惠出台使得抵押贷款大幅增加,刺激房地产销售快速增长。房地产开发商都获救了。
其他行业,从钢铁、媒体到零售,都面临从未有过的困境,现在也还未恢复到2007年的繁荣。其他行业从这次教训中明白了,房地产行业总是获利的。因此,每个人都想成为房地产开发商。但是,由于房地产开发是资本密集型行业,很多没有足够资本的人就成为房地产投机者,希望这些利润有一天能让他们变成开发商。
第三类:钱将不值钱
通胀是热门话题。通胀预期使得人们增加银行存款。这与通胀趋势是一致的:高收入人群消费的商品和服务,价格上涨最快。同样的商品和服务,在欧洲或香港价格更低,哪怕是中国制造的。这就是为什么富人最害怕通胀。"无论房价怎么跌,我还有这套房子,但是现金价值可以变成零。"有人如此表白,他为什么不持有现金。
无论人们是如何做出继续购房或持有眼下房产的判断,其最终推手都是通胀预期。并且,价格上涨势头似乎证实了这种预期。在上一个资产周期,我观察到,没有什么能像资产价格上涨那样让人们更乐观。在市场上涨时,大多数看空的投资者不会坚持他们的观点超过两周。在有效市场,价格上涨可以使用未来的钱。但是,中国房地产价格上涨是市场化现象吗?更不用说,这是有效市场现象吗?
中国不缺土地。每年土地供应量足够满足城市化增长需要。非正式资料显示,在过去四年已经出售的房屋中,很可能三分之一是空置的。3%的租房回报率支持这个故事。目前,租房回报率很可能跟由于租户日常居住导致的损坏成本差不多,这就是说,租房和闲置对屋主没有差异。
能够解释房价上升趋势的就是投机需求了。关键问题是,为什么投机需求如此庞大并且持久。主要原因是地方政府在背后支持。无论何时市场变冷,地方政府支持允许开发商惜售,并且不用担心来自银行的压力。因此,市场下行时,销售量几乎为零。这里的市场表现为,只有一个卖方,并且没有流动性约束,并且市场只能保持最低价格。由于最低价格被不断抬高,还在等待的人们受到惩罚。这种市场行为使投机者确信,他们应该尽早买,并且自己的杠杆率越高越好。
投机可以持续下去,前提是投机者仍能获得大量便宜的资金,并且,当市场转冷时,地方政府可以继续减少供给。因为地方政府可以通过多种渠道从银行借到资金,它们抵抗市场的耐力也由银行流动性决定。因此,只要货币供给持续快速增长,保证银行流动性充裕,房地产泡沫就会一直持续。
通胀后年成大患
只要未面临通胀和汇率贬值压力,一个国家可以印出它想要数量的钞票。对于发展中国家来说,当美元疲软,通胀就成为麻烦。当美元坚挺,本币贬值压力就成为货币政策的掣肘。
例如,印度和俄罗斯正经历两位数通胀,而它们的货币兑美元走强。两个国家都在升息但速度很慢。币值稳定给它们解决通胀的时间。
当美元走强,发展中国家总是经历货币危机。20年前,拉美国家曾出现过这种情形。10年前,亚洲和俄罗斯也曾出现过。当发展中国家面临贬值压力,在美元疲软时,通常资产泡沫随之而来,到那时,尽管经济不景气,它也不得不收紧货币政策。这种痛楚常常无法忍受。让我们看看,这个游戏在中国如何结束。
投资者常犯的一个错误是,认为经济快速增长意味着资产价格上涨。这个观点有两个问题。首先,经济快速增长,即使是在有效率的市场,也不会支持资产价格无限上涨。因此,经济增长只能支撑资产价格上涨到一定水平。这个水平可以用各种估值方法计算。当价格超过一定水平,价格应该下跌,即便经济增长已经被充分地认识到。
其次,高速的经济增长通常和资本分配低效率联系在一起。尽管经济发展成功,投资者也不会有高回报。他们的钱补贴了这一方市场的资本形成。以日本为例,其股市和房市价格比30年前低,但是,今天的日本经济规模更大了。韩国和台湾资产市场也是一样。
我认为,通货膨胀会终结中国的房地产泡沫。从根本上来说,通胀是货币现象。比如,中国的货币供给增幅是30%,而名义GDP增幅为5%。这中间的差异某一天就会以通胀的形式显现出来。货币增长和通胀之间的迟滞由各种原因决定。当原材料和劳动力供给充裕、产能过剩,通胀就会滞后很长时间。过去十年,中国的情况就是如此。但是,今天的情况已经变了。
中国的劳动力供应已经趋紧。通常我们认为,由于农村存在巨大的富余劳动力,劳动力供给过剩在中国将长期存在。但现实并非如此。其中的原因非常复杂。我会专门写一篇文章,讨论这个问题。但是,不可否认,中国的工资水平正在上涨,特别是不熟练工人。
资源品价格,譬如油价和铜价,已经涨到上世纪90年代平均水平的两到三倍。虽然过去三个月它们的价格很平稳,但是,过往涨价造成的通胀压力并未被完全消化。此外,资源品的价格在今后两年内还会继续上升,进一步推高通胀压力。
产能过剩仍是抑制通胀的防火墙,但已经不像过去那样坚不可摧。原材料价格的上涨,减少了制造环节在制成品附加值中的占比。比如,铁矿石和焦炭目前占到钢铁成本的四分之三。钢铁行业的产能过剩对钢铁价格影响并不大。钢铁价格很大程度上由原材料价格决定。
资本从制造业流向房地产给"通胀棺材"上敲下了最后一根钉子。由于极低的利润水平和不断上涨的房地产价格,制造业公司正在减少投资。长期来看,产能过剩对通胀的抑制会不断减弱。
对中国而言,通胀已经是一个问题。政府用来控制价格上涨的行政手段可以减弱通胀的势头。但是,类似于上世纪90年代的那种高通胀,一定会再次出现。到2012年,通胀将成为一个严重的问题。有两个原因会导致房地产泡沫破裂。首先,由于通胀是全球性的,美联储将会把利率升到5%以上,这将使热钱流出中国。其次,为了对抗通胀并阻止资本流出,中国的利率水平将会高于美国。
2012年,地产泡沫终将破灭。
作者为玫瑰石顾问公司董事
谢国忠搜狐博客:http://xieguozhong.blog.sohu.com/
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